18. Socio-Economics and Tourism

18.1. Introduction

This chapter of the Offshore Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Report presents the assessment of the likely significant effects (as per the “EIA Regulations”) on the environment of the Berwick Bank Wind Farm offshore infrastructure which is the subject of this application (hereafter referred to as “the Proposed Development”) on socio-economics and tourism receptors. Specifically, this chapter considers the potential impacts of the Proposed Development seaward of Mean High Water Springs (MHWS) during the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases.
Likely significant effect is a term used in both the “EIA Regulations” and the Habitat Regulations. Reference to likely significant effect in this Offshore EIA Report refers to “likely significant effect” as used by the “EIA Regulations”. This Offshore EIA Report is accompanied by a Report to Inform Appropriate Assessment (RIAA) (SSER, 2022c) which uses the term as defined by the Habitats Regulations Appraisal (HRA) Regulations.
This chapter also assesses the likely significant effects of the Proposed Development on onshore receptors (landward of Mean Low Water Springs (MLWS)) during the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases.
In the case of socio-economics assessment of effects, there is a complexity with the impacts associated with offshore and intertidal activities primarily manifesting onshore. This chapter’s approach is focused on the 'source' of the impact, rather than the ultimate location of the physical infrastructure. This is consistent with the broader approach to separating onshore and offshore effects:

Offshore: if physical infrastructure and civil works are located offshore, any resulting impacts are categorised as offshore.
Onshore: if physical infrastructure and civil works are located onshore, any resulting impacts are categorised as onshore.
1. The potential impacts from the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning of the onshore components (namely the onshore substation and associated infrastructure) of the Project on socio-economics and tourism receptors are considered as part of the of the Berwick Bank Wind Farm Onshore EIA Report (SSER, 2022a).
2. The assessment presented is informed by the following EIA Report Chapters:
volume 2, chapter 12: Commercial Fisheries;
volume 2, chapter 13: Shipping and Navigation;
volume 2, chapter 15 Seascape and Visual Resources; and
volume 2, chapter 17: Infrastructure and Other Users.
1. This chapter draws significantly on the Technical Impact Report contained within volume 3, appendix 18.1 (Berwick Bank Wind Farm: Socioeconomic Technical Report, BVG Associates).
2. Volume 3, appendix 18.1 sets out an economic analysis of the Proposed Development, and has been prepared to inform the socio-economics and tourism assessment of effects.
3. Volume 3, appendix 18.1 also considers direct, indirect and induced employment and Gross Value Added (GVA) effects at local, Scotland and United Kingdom (UK) level across a detailed breakdown of phases and supply chain categories. The Technical Impact Report considers effects of offshore and onshore activity, and presents total effects based on an aggregation of both.

18.2. Purpose of this Chapter

The primary purpose of the Offshore EIA Report is outlined in volume 1, chapter 1. It is intended that the Offshore EIA Report will provide the Scottish Ministers, statutory and non-statutory stakeholders with sufficient information to determine the likely significant effects of the Proposed Development on the receiving environment.
In particular, this Socio-economics and Tourism EIA Report chapter:

presents the existing environmental baseline established from desk studies and consultation with stakeholders;
identifies any assumptions and limitations encountered in compiling the socio-economics and tourism information;
presents the likely significant environmental impacts on socio-economics and tourism receptors arising from the Proposed Development and reaches a conclusion on the likely significant effects on socio-economics and tourism based on the information gathered and the analysis and assessments undertaken; and
highlights any necessary monitoring and/or mitigation measures recommended to prevent, minimise, reduce or offset likely significant adverse environmental effects of the Proposed Development on socio-economics and tourism receptors.

18.3. Socio-Economics and Tourism Study Areas

The identification of the study areas for the socio-economics and tourism impact analysis has taken account of the spatial scale at which impacts upon different receptors are likely to materialise. This is likely to vary across receptors and will therefore require a localised study area and a larger regional/national study area, separated between socio-economic and tourism receptors. The level at which impacts upon different receptors are likely to materialise is as follows:

socio-economics receptors: local and national; and
tourism: local.

18.3.1. Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s)

It is necessary that the socio-economics local study area is linked to the selection of construction (and decommissioning), and operation and maintenance ports that will support the associated supply of a range of inputs and services for the Proposed Development. These ports, and their socio-economic catchment areas are anticipated to form epicentres of impact on socio-economic receptors. The selection process associated with the identification of ports, inputs and services will not conclude until much later in the development of the Project, which is typical for offshore wind farms.
The following approach has been followed to define socio-economics local study area(s):

Step 1: identify port and harbour facilities that are viable options for construction and/or operation and maintenance bases.
Step 2: assess socio-economics local study area(s) associated with each port and harbour facility.

Step 1 – Identify port and harbour facilities that are viable options for construction and/or operation and maintenance bases

The Applicant, having conducted an exploratory facilities assessment, identified a shortlist of ports and harbours as potential locations for each phase of the Proposed Development. Potential facilities are listed in Table 18.1 Open ▸ .
Identified port and harbour facilities deemed to be suitable bases for the construction phase are also assumed to be suitable for the decommissioning phase.

Table 18.1: List of Potential Construction, Operation and Maintenance, and Decommissioning Port and Harbour Facilities

Note: henceforth each facility will be referred to by its location only to aid readability (e.g. Aberdeen Harbour will be referred to as Aberdeen).

Three support harbours – Cockenzie, Dunbar and Eyemouth – have been identified as unsuitable as the primary operation and maintenance phase base facility but could provide additional capacity to support the primary base facility.
The Port of Nigg (hereon referred to as Invergordon) has not been included in the list of potential operation and maintenance ports mainly due to distance from the site being too far for usual operational activities to occur. Also, Invergordon’s layout includes large construction compounds and a deep draft which make it a more suitable facility for use during the construction/decommissioning phases.
The final selection of port and harbour facilities required for the Proposed Development has not yet been determined. The Applicant is exploring Scottish ports and harbours and supporting infrastructure and labour markets to understand the potential capabilities, capacities and availability of each. Subject to these findings, the most likely scenario is that either a single port or multiple ports along the east coast of Scotland will be used to support primary elements of the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases of the Proposed Development as part of a wider supply chain (with Cockenzie, Dunbar and Eyemouth harbours potentially providing additional support capacity). Final selection of port and harbour facilities will be subject to ongoing engineering and procurement considerations, and the use of potential facilities for the purposes of this assessment does not indicate any preference or imply any decision. Potential manufacturing and fabrication suppliers have not yet been identified – this process will be subject to further procurement decisions post-consent. Therefore, facilities relating to this aspect of the construction process cannot be considered as part of the approach to defining socio-economics local study areas.

Step 2 – Assess socio-economics local study area(s) associated with each facility

On the basis of the port and harbour facilities listed, the socio-economics local study area associated with each facility has been derived from labour catchments [1] by using a 60 minute drive time catchment as a proxy [2].
Adopting a methodology which defines the socio-economics local study area(s) on the basis of local authority areas is necessary given that government data sources are structured to reflect conditions at local authority level. Below this level of governance, data becomes increasingly scarce and can be less reliable when dealing with survey based data, for example.
Therefore, 60 minute drive time catchments for each facility have been converted to best fit local authority areas. Inclusion of local authority areas in a given socio-economics local study area is based on an analysis of the share of the local authority area population within the bounds of a given 60 minute drive time catchment. Local authorities with more than 50% of their population falling within a 60 minute drive time catchment of a facility have been included in the socio-economics local study area for that given facility. The results of this analysis are shown in volume 3, appendix 18.3.
Each port and harbour facility’s socio-economics local study area is shown in Figure 18.1 Open ▸ to Figure 18.9 Open ▸ .
There are differences in transport infrastructure which effects drive-time catchments – this is particularly the case when comparing locations with predominantly rural surrounds versus those with predominantly urban surrounds (especially locations in or near the Central Belt). Professional judgement has been used to qualify each facility’s socio-economics local study area. Results have also been corroborated through comparison with 2011 Travel to Work Areas (TTWA).
A summary of socio-economics local study areas based on the above approach is set out in Table 18.2 Open ▸ .
Socio-economics local study areas are not mutually exclusive, with a number of local authority areas of commonality.

Table 18.2: Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) Definitions

Figure 18.1: Invergordon Socio-Economics Local Study Area for the Proposed Development

Figure 18.2: Aberdeen Socio-Economics Local Study Area for the Proposed Development

Figure 18.3: Montrose Socio-Economics Local Study Area for the Proposed Development

Figure 18.4: Dundee Socio-Economics Local Study Area for the Proposed Development

Figure 18.5: Methil Socio-Economics Local Study Area for the Proposed Development

Figure 18.6: Burntisland Socio-Economics Local Study Area for the Proposed Development

Figure 18.7: Rosyth Socio-Economics Local Study Area for the Proposed Development

Figure 18.8: Leith Socio-Economics Local Study Area for the Proposed Development

Figure 18.9: Support Harbours Socio-Economics Local Study Area for the Proposed Development

The offshore Leith and Support harbours socio-economics (seaward of MHWS) local study areas include the intertidal area, which overlaps with the onshore topic of the Socio-economics EIA Report (landward of MHWS) (Berwick Bank Wind Farm Onshore EIA Report (SSER, 2022a) volume 1, chapter 13).

18.3.2. Socio-Economics National Study Area

A larger national socio-economics impact area is defined to reflect the wider reach of GVA and employment impacts that may materialise through the supply chain and demand for labour across Scotland.
Potential expenditure on the following activities associated with the Proposed Development could support employment in Scottish companies that are directly engaged in the development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation supply chain:

wind turbine manufacturing and supply – blades, nacelle, hub, tower;
balance of plant manufacturing and supply – foundations, inter-array cables, Offshore Substation Platforms (OSPs)/Offshore convertor station platforms, offshore export cables; and
construction and installation of wind turbine and balance of plant – wind turbine, foundation, inter-array cable, and other installation.
1. Potential expenditure on the following activities associated with the operation and maintenance of the Proposed Development could support employment in Scottish companies that are directly engaged in the operation and maintenance supply chain:
wind turbine, balance of plant, and transmission maintenance and servicing.
vessel and crew activity:
Service Operation Vessels (SOV); and
guard vessels.
1. Potential expenditure on decommissioning of wind turbine and balance of plant associated with the Proposed Development could support employment in Scottish companies that are directly engaged in the decommissioning supply chain.
2. The socio-economics national study area is defined as Scotland.
3. The offshore socio-economics (seaward of MHWS) national study area includes the intertidal area. This intertidal area overlaps with the onshore topics of the socio-economics EIA Report (landward of MHWS) (Berwick Bank Wind Farm Onshore EIA Report (SSER, 2022a): volume 1, chapter 13).

18.3.3. Tourism Local Study Area

Potential impacts of the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning of the Proposed Development on tourism and recreation are indirect in nature. It is necessary to derive an assessment of significance of effects on tourism and recreation from the findings elsewhere in the Offshore EIA Report, namely:

Accommodation, housing and local services: the effect of the construction (installation), operation and maintenance, and decommissioning of the Proposed Development on the availability of overnight accommodation has the potential to impact the tourism sector and its capacity to accommodate visitors. Therefore, the assessment of significance of effects on housing, accommodation, and local services considered in volume 2, chapter 18 will inform a related assessment of significance of effects on tourism and recreation.
Seascape, landscape and visual impact: the potential visual impacts of the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning of the Proposed Development will be one of the most important considerations when assessing significance of effects on tourism and recreation. As such, the findings set out in volume 2, chapter 15 will inform a related assessment of significance on tourism and recreation.
Infrastructure and other users: the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning of offshore infrastructure has the potential to impact other water users. Therefore, the findings set out in volume 2, chapter 17 will inform a related assessment of significance on tourism and recreation.
Shipping and navigation: the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning of the Proposed Development has the potential to impact on recreational boating activities. Therefore, the findings set out in volume 2, chapter 13 will inform a related assessment of significance on tourism and recreation.
1. Given the multiple disciplines that will feed into the assessment of significance of effects on tourism and recreation, it is important to define a tourism local study area that will ensure the potential impacts most likely to effect tourism and recreation are given due consideration. As such – and in cross-reference to assessments set out in relevant topic chapters – the rationale for tourism local study area selection is set out in Table 18.3 Open ▸ .

Table 18.3: Consideration of Potential Significant Environmental and Cumulative Effects Across Disciplines Impacting Tourism and Recreation

Therefore, the SLVIA topic chapter (volume 2, chapter 15) will be the primary driver of the tourism local study area definition. Consideration of the location of viewpoints, visual receptors, major settlements, and recreation routes subject to potential impacts will be of central importance in defining an appropriate tourism local study area.
On this basis, Figure 18.10 Open ▸ sets out the tourism local study area.

Figure 18.10: Tourism Local Study Area for the Proposed Development

The offshore tourism (seaward of MHWS) local study area includes the intertidal area. This intertidal area overlaps with the onshore topic of land use, tourism and recreation EIA chapter (Berwick Bank Wind Farm Onshore EIA Report (SSER, 2022a); volume 1, chapter 14).

18.4. Policy and Legislative Context

Policy and legislation on renewable energy infrastructure is presented in volume 1, chapter 2 of the Offshore EIA Report. There is no legislation specifically in relation to the socio-economics and tourism assessment. Policy specifically in relation to socio-economics and tourism is contained in a number of strategic planning contexts. A summary of the relevant policy provisions is set out in Table 18.4 Open ▸ .
All the policy and legislation provided in Table 18.4 Open ▸ is also relevant to the intertidal area.

Table 18.4: Summary of Policy Provisions Relevant to Socio-Economics and Tourism

18.5. Consultation

There has been broad consistency in the nature of relevant scoping comments received. The approach and methodology for this chapter has been refined and enhanced based on relevant scoping responses.
In addition, a range of key stakeholders were invited to participate in consultation to inform the socio-economic and tourism assessment. This included national and regional representative organisations as well as local authority officers and community council representatives within the socio-economics local study areas and the tourism local study area. Invitations were issued to 58 organisations, listed in volume 3, appendix 18.2.
A total of 15 stakeholder organisations participated in the socio-economics and tourism consultation process. The focus of each consultation was tailored to the areas of knowledge and expertise of the participants structured around the baseline conditions for receptors, and information relevant to the assessment of socio-economics and tourism impacts.
Table 18.5 Open ▸ summarises the key issues related to socio-economics and tourism raised during relevant consultation activities to date and sets out firstly where these issues have been considered as part of project development (where relevant), and secondly where they have been considered in this chapter.

18.5.1. Community Engagement

During the course of the project’s development thus far, the Applicant has conducted four community engagement events:

November 2020: Introductory public virtual exhibition event. Due to public health restrictions in place due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the exhibition was held virtually. The online platform was free to access and allowed for visitors to submit written feedback via forms, or ask questions to the project team via a live chat function in real time. The event was open for contributions between 16 November – 7 December 2020. The virtual exhibition received 641 page views during the three week period. Across the four ‘live chat’ sessions the project team were asked a total of 29 questions from 12 individual community members. Three feedback forms were submitted to the project inbox.
October 2021: Week long Community Roadshow between 25–29 October 2021 to provide information, introduce (or re-introduce) the project to the local community, and seek the views of members of the public and various stakeholder bodies. The format involved members of the project team visiting various locations across East Lothian to engage with members of the public. Across the week the team visited 17 different locations and engaged with approximately 200 community members during this period.
December 2021: Virtual and in-person public consultation event between 6–30 December 2021 to enable members of the public to speak directly with the project team via in-person public consultation and ‘live chat’ sessions. Purpose was to engage members of the community, and seek the views of the public and stakeholder bodies. A virtual exhibition remained live online between 6–30 December 2021, with two ‘live chat’ sessions on 8 December, and an in-person public consultations on 9 December 2021 at Innerwick Village Hall. Approximately 70 members of the community attended the in-person consultation event. A total of 25 feedback forms were submitted via the online platform, nine questions were received during live chat sessions, and the virtual exhibition received 463 views over the period.
March 2022: Virtual and in-person public consultation event between 7–31 March 2022 to enable members of the public to speak directly with the project team via in-person public consultation and ‘live chat’ sessions. This consultation event built on the information presented as part of the December 2021 consultation event (above) and confirmed to members of the public and stakeholders the proposals the Applicant wishes to submit for consenting purposes. A virtual exhibition remained live between 7–31 March 2022, with four ‘live chat’ sessions taking place on 9 and 10 March 2022. An in-person consultation event took place on 8 March 2022 at Innerwick Village Hall, attended by approximately 50 members of the community. At the request of the local Parish Council, the project team returned to Innerwick Village Hall on 29 March 2022 to host an open forum question and answer session with interested members of the community. The purpose of this session was to allow community members to ask further questions once they have had sufficient time to examine the information presented to date. Across the whole period, the virtual exhibition received 384 page views. Three feedback forms were submitted via the online platform, and a further eight questions were submitted during ‘live chat’ sessions.
1. Pre-planning application public consultation events have been arranged at the discretion of the Applicant (i.e. separate to mandatory public consultations post-planning application) to ensure community members firstly receive as much information as possible at each stage of the project’s development, and secondly have the opportunity to comment, provide feedback, ask questions, make suggestions, and help shape the project as it progresses. Consultation with key stakeholders and the local community will continue as the project progresses.
2. A variety of issues were raised during the course of these community engagement events. Issues raised relating to socio-economics and tourism have been considered within this chapter. The findings from these community engagement events are set out fully within the Pre-Application Consultation (PAC) Report which accompanies the Application.

Table 18.5: Summary of Key Consultation of Relevance to Socio Economics and Tourism

18.6. Methodology to Inform Baseline

This section summarises the methodology applied which informed the analysis of the baseline environments of the socio-economics local study area, socio-economics national study area, and tourism local study area.
The summary of baseline conditions aligns with the socio-economic and tourism impacts set out in Table 18.31 Open ▸ , and will therefore cover the receptors set out below, along with associated indicators:

Employment:

– total employment in all industries (2019);

– employment change in all industries (2015–2019);

– total employment in impact industries (2019); and

– employment change in impact industries (2015–2019).

GVA:

– total GVA in all industries (2019);

– GVA change in all industries (2015–2019);

– total GVA in impact industries (2019); and

– GVA change in impact industries (2015–2019).

Labour market:

– economic activity (2019);

– unemployment (2019); and

– economically inactive individuals that want a job (2019).

Housing and local services:

– population (2019);

– dwellings (2019);

– unoccupied Dwellings (2019); and

– dwellings within the Private Rented Sector (2018).

Tourism and Recreation:

– total tourism sector employment (2019);

– total tourism sector GVA (2019);

– overnight visits (2019);

– tourism accommodation occupancy (2019); and

– marine related tourism and recreation (various).

These indicators will be analysed on the basis of publicly available desktop sources as set out in Table 18.6 Open ▸ .

18.6.1. Industry Definitions

The definitions of industry terms utilised throughout the offshore socio-economics and tourism EIA chapter are as follows:

All industries: this industry definition includes all Standard Industrial Classification 2007 (SIC07) codes and can be thought of as the ‘whole’ economy.
Impact industries: various permutations of impact industries are utilised, each defined in volume 3, appendix 18.4. These impact industries should not be seen as representing only activity that currently contributes to the offshore wind sector. Instead, these impact industries should be seen as representative activities in industries associated with the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning of offshore energy infrastructure (i.e. not limited to offshore wind).
Offshore wind: this industry definition represents activity that currently contributes to the offshore wind sector.

Impact industries

There is no widely agreed and accepted definition of the offshore wind industry based on SIC07. Enterprises within many SIC07 sectors can be active within the offshore wind industry.
Impact industries have been defined to represent employment and GVA in industries associated with the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning of offshore energy infrastructure (i.e. not limited to offshore wind). These definitions can be found in volume 3, appendix 18.4.
There is variance in the level of detail that employment and GVA data can be obtained via publicly available data sources:

Employment: data can be obtained via the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES). BRES reports data as detailed as SIC07 'subclasses’ (or five digit SIC07), which is the most detailed level of standardised industry classification available.
GVA: data can be obtained via Regional GVA (balanced) by industry: local authorities by International Territorial Level 1 (ITL1) region. This dataset reports data as detailed as SIC07 ‘divisions’ (or two digit SIC07), and in a number of cases aggregates a number of related divisions. This level of reporting is not as detailed as employment data available via BRES.
1. Because of these differences in statistical reporting, a more detailed definition of impact industries using SIC07 subclasses has been adopted for employment analysis, with SIC07 divisions (some aggregated) used for GVA analysis. Respective employment and GVA impact industries definitions are set out at volume 3, appendix 18.4.

18.6.2. Desktop Study

Information on socio-economics within the socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area, and tourism within the tourism local study area, was collected through a detailed desktop review of existing studies and datasets. These are summarised in Table 18.6 Open ▸ below.

Table 18.6: Summary of Key Desktop Sources

18.6.3. Site-Specific Surveys

No site-specific surveys have been undertaken to inform the socio-economics and tourism EIA. This is due to the availability of existing publicly accessible socio-economic data for the identified impact areas. Consultation has been undertaken with stakeholders across the identified local and national study areas.

18.7. Baseline Environment

18.7.1. Overview of Baseline Environment

This section summarises relevant baseline data for the socio-economics local study area, socio-economics national study area, and tourism local study area under the following headings:

employment;
GVA;
labour market;
housing and local services; and
tourism.
1. Some parts of Scotland’s economy will be more impacted than others by the Proposed Development. The Proposed Development has the potential to be a catalyst for economic activity focused around the offshore wind sector.

18.7.2. Employment

Employment is a measure obtained by adding the number of working owners (not paid via Pay as You Earn (PAYE)) to the number of employees (full and part time). This is a measure of persons and not measured in full time equivalents (FTE).
The definitions of construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning employment impact industries on the basis of SIC07 classes/subclasses are set out in volume 3, appendix 18.4.
All industries employment in Scotland in 2019 was approximately 2.6 million (ONS, 2021b). Between 2015–2019, employed persons in Scotland increased by +36,000 (ONS, 2021b). This equates to an average annual growth of 0.3%.
The Invergordon and support harbours socio-economics local study areas have the smallest employment base across all industries. Rosyth socio-economics local study area has by far the largest employment base – as well as covering Edinburgh its 60 minute drive-time catchment includes other populous local authorities across the Central Belt, including Glasgow City and its surrounding local authorities. Dundee, Methil, Burntisland and Rosyth socio-economics local study areas have a high degree of commonality in terms of local authorities included in their labour catchments (except for the differences already noted regarding Rosyth)[4].
Aberdeen, Montrose and Dundee socio-economics local study areas each saw a decline in employment over the period 2015–2019. This is partly linked to the decline in offshore oil and gas activity, which is strongly represented in these areas. All other socio-economics local study areas saw an increase in employment over the period 2015–2019.
The figures for each socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area are presented in Table 18.7 Open ▸ .

Table 18.7: All Industries Employment Count and Change – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area and Socio-Economics National Study Areas

Source: Hardisty Jones Associates (HJA) analysis of Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) (ONS, 2022)

Note: negative values in parentheses

Construction impact industries employment in Scotland in 2019 was approximately 77,000 (ONS, 2021b). Between 2015–2019, construction impact industries employment in Scotland decreased by 9,000 (ONS, 2021b). Operation and maintenance impact industries employment in Scotland in 2019 was approximately 64,000 (ONS, 2021b). Between 2015–2019, operation and maintenance impact industries employment in Scotland decreased by 4,000 (ONS, 2021b). Decommissioning impact industries employment in Scotland in 2019 was approximately 63,000 (ONS, 2021b). Between 2015–2019, decommissioning impact industries employment in Scotland decreased by 5,000 (ONS, 2021b).
With regards to construction impact industries, the Aberdeen socio-economics local study area has the largest employment base, and Montrose socio-economics local study area has an employment base of similar size (by virtue of both Socio-economics local study areas containing Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire local authorities, there is significant commonality between the two). The Invergordon socio-economics local study area does not have a similar quantum of construction impact industries employment, however anecdotal evidence indicates there is a strong presence of offshore wind sector activity there related to the Beatrice and Moray East schemes.
With regards to operation and maintenance impact industries, the Aberdeen socio-economics local study area has the largest employment base, and Montrose socio-economics local study area has an employment base of similar size (for the same reasons as set out above). Montrose is currently the operation and maintenance base for the Seagreen offshore wind scheme. This large employment base in terms of both construction and operation and maintenance impact industries is a result of the area surrounding Aberdeen having an economic heritage with a very strong presence in the offshore oil and gas industry, and consequent supply chain strengths in activities that could be positioned to participate in the offshore wind sector.
Over the period 2015–2019, employment in construction impact industries has decreased in Aberdeen and Dundee socio-economics local study areas, increased in Leith socio-economics local study area, and remained constant in Invergordon socio-economics local study area.
Over the same period, employment in operation and maintenance impact industries has decreased in Aberdeen, Montrose and Dundee socio-economics local study areas, and increased in most of the remaining socio-economics local study areas (level has remained constant in Methil socio-economics local study area).
Over the same period, employment in decommissioning impact industries has decreased in Aberdeen and Dundee socio-economics local study areas, increased in Leith socio-economics local study area, and remained constant in Invergordon socio-economics local study area.
The figures for each of the socio-economics local study areas and socio-economics national study area are presented in Table 18.8 Open ▸ . Employment data is shown for ports under consideration for each phase [6].

Table 18.8: Construction, Operation and Maintenance, and Decommissioning Impact Industries Employment Count and Change – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Whilst there is no agreed Standard Industrial Classification 2007 (SIC07) based sector definition for offshore wind, a Scotland level study to estimate the total size of the sector, based on an ONS survey of businesses has been undertaken. Total direct, indirect and induced FTE employment supported by the offshore wind sector in Scotland in 2019 was estimated at 4,700 (FAI, 2021). No equivalent data for local impact areas is available.

18.7.3. GVA

The definitions of construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning GVA impact industries on the basis of SIC07 divisions are set out in volume 3, appendix 18.4.
All industries GVA in Scotland in 2019 was approximately £147 billion (ONS, 2021e). Between 2015–2019, GVA in Scotland increased by +£16 billion (ONS, 2021e). This equates to an average annual growth of 2.9%. UK annual average growth over the same period was 3.7%.
The Invergordon socio-economics local study area has the smallest GVA output across all industries, primarily as a result of its more rural economy focused on ‘lower value’ activities (value in terms of GVA, not importance). Rosyth socio-economics local study area has by far the largest employment base – as well as covering Edinburgh its 60 minute drive-time catchment includes other populous local authorities across the Central Belt, including Glasgow City and its surrounding local authorities.
Aberdeen and Montrose socio-economics local study areas each saw a decline in GVA output over the period 2015–2019. This is partly linked to the decline in offshore oil and gas activity, which is strongly represented in these areas. All other socio-economics local study areas saw an increase in GVA output over the period 2015–2019.
The figures for each socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area are presented in Table 18.9 Open ▸ .

Table 18.9: All Industries GVA and Change – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Construction impact industries GVA output in Scotland in 2019 was approximately £27 billion. Between 2015–2019, construction impact industries GVA output in Scotland increased by £800 million. Operation and maintenance impact industries GVA output in Scotland in 2019 was approximately £19 billion. Between 2015–2019, operation and maintenance impact industries GVA output in Scotland increased by £500 million. Decommissioning impact industries GVA output in Scotland in 2019 was approximately £21 billion. Between 2015–2019, decommissioning impact industries GVA output in Scotland increased by £400 million (ONS, 2021).
With regards to construction and decommissioning impact industries, the Aberdeen socio-economics local study area has the largest GVA output. This is a result of the area’s economic heritage of a very strong presence in the offshore oil and gas industry, and consequent supply chain strengths in activities that could be positioned to participate in the offshore wind sector. In operation and maintenance impact industries, Rosyth socio-economic and tourism local study area has the largest GVA output by virtue of its extensive 60 minute drive time catchment area including both City of Edinburgh and Glasgow City local authorities.
Over the period 2015–2019, GVA output in construction impact industries has decreased in Aberdeen socio-economics local study area and increased in the remaining socio-economics local study areas.
Over the same period, GVA output in operation and maintenance impact industries has decreased in Aberdeen and Montrose socio-economics local study areas, and increased in most of the remaining socio-economics local study areas (level has remained constant in support harbours socio-economics local study area).
Over the same period, GVA output in decommissioning impact industries has decreased in Aberdeen socio-economics local study area and increased in the remaining socio-economics local study areas.
The figures for each socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area are presented in Table 18.10 Open ▸ . Employment data is shown for port and harbour facilities under consideration for each phase [7].

Table 18.10: Construction, Operation and Maintenance, and Decommissioning Impact Industries GVA and Change – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Whilst there is no agreed SIC based sector definition for offshore wind, a Scotland level study to estimate the total size of the sector, based on an ONS survey of businesses has been undertaken (FAI, 2021). Total direct, indirect and induced GVA supported by the offshore wind sector in Scotland in 2019 was estimated at £447 million (FAI). No equivalent data for socio-economics local study areas is available.

18.7.4. Labour Market

Economic activity is a measure of those in employment or self-employment, as well as those actively looking for work. Economic inactivity is defined as people not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last four weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next two weeks. The ONS also reports on the rate of economically inactive individuals that want a job.
The economic activity rate in Scotland in 2019 was 77.5% (ONS, 2021a). The number of economically active individuals in Scotland increased by annual average of +0.1% between 2015–2019 (ONS, 2021a).
The share of those who were economically inactive at the time who wanted a job was 20.4% (ONS, 2021a). The number of economically inactive individuals who want a job in Scotland decreased by –3.9% between 2015–2019 (ONS, 2021a).
The figures for each socio-economics local study area are presented in Table 18.11 Open ▸ . With the exception of the Rosyth socio-economics local study area (which is slightly below the Scotland average), all have higher economic activity rates than the Scotland average.

Table 18.11: Economic Activity Rate and Economically Inactive Individuals That Want a Job – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The ONS Annual Population Survey uses the International Labour Organization’s (ILO) definition of ‘unemployment’ as follows: individuals without a job who are able to start work in the two weeks following their participation in the survey, and who had either looked for worked in the four weeks prior to survey, or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained. Unemployment rate is therefore the share of economically active individuals over the age of 16 years who are unemployed according to the ILO definition.
The number of unemployed individuals in Scotland in 2019 was 95,800 (ONS, 2021a).
The share of the total workforce that were unemployed was 3.5% (ONS, 2021a). The number of unemployed individuals in Scotland decreased by –40% between 2015–2019, at an average annual rate of –12% (ONS, 2021a).
The figures for each socio-economics local study areas are presented in Table 18.12 Open ▸ . Invergordon, Aberdeen, Montrose, Burntisland, Leith, and support harbours socio-economics local study areas all have lower unemployment rates than the Scotland average. Dundee and Methil socio-economics local study areas have higher unemployment rates than the Scotland average. Rosyth socio-economics local study area has the same unemployment rate as the Scotland average.

Table 18.12: Unemployed Individuals and Unemployment Rate – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of Annual Population Survey (ONS), 2022.

Note: negative values in parentheses.

18.7.5. Housing, Accommodation and Local Services

Scotland’s population in 2019 was approximately 5.5 million (ONS, 2021c). This increased by approximately 90,000 over the period 2015–2019 at an average annual rate of +0.4%.
Methil, Burntisland and Rosyth socio-economics local study areas have the largest populations – as well as covering Edinburgh their 60 minute drive-time catchments include other populous local authorities across the Central Belt. Invergordon and support harbours socio-economics local study areas have the smallest populations by virtue of their more rural locations and catchment areas.
Burntisland, Rosyth, Leith, and support harbours socio-economics local study areas all saw an increase in population above the Scotland rate over the period 2015–2019. Invergordon, Dundee, and Methil socio-economics local study areas saw an increase in population over the period, but below the Scotland rate. Aberdeen and Montrose socio-economics local study areas are the only areas to have seen a decrease in population over the period 2015–2019.
The figures for each socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area are presented in Table 18.13 Open ▸ .

Table 18.13: Total Population and Population Change – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The National Records of Scotland provides data on Estimates of Households and Dwellings in Scotland. They provide useful inputs to a number of strategic planning outputs, including:

informing local authorities about housing need and provision of services;
information on housing in rural areas (including second homes and empty properties;
providing a baseline for local projections of household numbers; and
informing projections of future school rolls.
1. This makes it a relevant and useful data source for informing the following baseline conditions that characterise this receptor:
2. ‘Total dwellings’ is the total number of dwellings on the Council Tax valuation list. A ‘dwelling’ refers to the accommodation itself, for example a house or a flat and includes second homes that are not let out commercially. This data can provide the baseline for an area’s overall dwelling stock, which can then be used for assessing share of private rented dwellings and unoccupied dwellings.
3. In 2019 Scotland had approximately 2.6 million dwellings (National Records of Scotland, 2021). This increased by approximately 80,000 over the period 2015–2019 at an average annual rate of +0.8%.
4. Methil, Burntisland and Rosyth socio-economics local study areas have the largest dwelling stock by virtue of their 60 minute drive time catchments covering many similar local authority areas across the Central Belt. Invergordon and support harbours socio-economics local study areas have the smallest dwelling stocks by virtue of their more rural locations and catchment areas.
5. Aberdeen, Montrose, Burntisland, Rosyth, Leith and support harbours socio-economics local study areas all saw an increase in dwelling stock above the Scotland rate over the period 2015–2019. Invergordon, Dundee and Methil socio-economics local study areas saw an increase in dwelling stock over the period, but below the Scotland rate. No socio-economics local study area saw a decrease in dwelling stock over the period.
6. The figures for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area are presented in Table 18.14 Open ▸ .

Table 18.14: Total Dwellings and Dwelling Change – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Understanding an area’s private rented dwelling stock [8] can provide a useful profile of the type of accommodation that might be utilised by, for instance, temporary workers relocating to participate in construction phase activities.
In 2018, 371,000 dwellings were recorded within the private rented sector within the socio-economics national study area. This represented 14.2% of the total dwelling stock.
The absolute size of the private rented sector varies widely across the socio-economics local study areas, based on the varying scale of the areas and levels of urbanisation – as per Table 18.15 Open ▸ the private rented sector ranges from 14.2% to 19.0% at the local level.

Table 18.15: Total Dwellings in Private Rented Sector – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

‘Unoccupied dwellings’ include unoccupied units that are exempt from Council Tax, and dwellings which are recorded on Council Tax systems as being long-term empty properties [9]. Understanding an area’s unoccupied dwelling stock can provide a useful profile of how easily (or not) an area might accommodate workers relocating to participate in construction, operation and maintenance, or decommissioning activities.
Scotland has approximately 85,000 unoccupied dwellings (National Records of Scotland, 2021) – this is around 3.2% of total dwelling stock. This increased by approximately 1,300 over the period 2015–2019 at an average annual rate of +1.9%.
Burntisland and Rosyth socio-economics local study areas have the largest stock of unoccupied dwellings by virtue of their 60 minute drive time catchments covering many similar local authority areas across the Central Belt. Invergordon and support harbours socio-economics local study areas have the smallest stocks of unoccupied dwellings by virtue of their more rural locations and catchment areas.
Invergordon, Aberdeen and Montrose socio-economics local study areas all saw an increase in unoccupied dwelling stock above the Scotland average annual rate over the period 2015–2019. Burntisland and Leith socio-economics local study areas saw an increase in unoccupied dwelling stock around the same level as the Scotland rate over the period 2015–2019. Dundee, Rosyth and support harbours socio-economics local study areas saw an increase in unoccupied dwelling stock over the period, but below the Scotland rate. Methil Socio-economics local study area saw a decrease in unoccupied dwelling stock over the period.
The figures for each socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area are presented in Table 18.6 Open ▸ .

Table 18.16: Total Unoccupied Dwellings and Unoccupied Dwelling Change – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

In 2018, 371,000 dwellings were recorded within the private rented sector within the socio-economics national study area. This represented 14.2% of the total dwelling stock.
The absolute size of the private rented sector varies widely across the socio-economics local study areas, based on the varying scale of the areas and levels of urbanisation – as per Table 18.17 Open ▸ the private rented sector ranges from 14.2% to 19.0% at the local level.

Table 18.17: Total Unoccupied Dwellings and Unoccupied Dwelling Change – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Overnight accommodation

Impacts are likely to materialise upon tourism receptors at the local level. Visit Scotland is a key source of statistical data on the tourism sector. Visit Scotland tourism ‘regions’ do not map directly to the identified tourism local study area for this assessment. The Visit Scotland regions that have been mapped to the tourism local study area are set out as per volume 3, appendix 18.5.
The tourism sector is an important industry in terms of employment and GVA across the tourism local study area.
The figures for each tourism region (as defined by Visit Scotland) are presented in Table 18.18 Open ▸ .

Table 18.18: Tourism Sector Employment and GVA (2018) – by Tourism Region

All parts of the tourism local study area are popular tourist destinations for overnight visitors. The figures for each tourism local study area are presented in Table 18.19 Open ▸ .

Table 18.19: Overnight Visits and Spend (2019) – by Tourism Region

There is some slack in tourism accommodation occupancy rates across the tourism local study area. Even during peak months of occupancy, there remains between 12%–21% vacancy in hotels across the tourism local study area.
The figures for annual average and peak occupancy across a range of accommodation types across the tourism local study area are presented in Table 18.20 Open ▸ . The scale of variation over the period 2017-19 is also shown. This is measured as ±%point difference across the years. This shows the level of variation within occupancy levels over the three year period.

Table 18.20: Tourist Accommodation Occupancy Rates (2019) – by Tourism Region

18.7.6. Tourism and Recreation

Tourism

The Visit Scotland Visitor Experience Survey 2015/16 was completed to gain an understanding of the behaviour and experience of visitors to Scotland. When questioned on their motivation to travel to Scotland, Scenery and landscape was the most common reason given for travel to Scotland, with 50% of responses citing this as the main motivation for visiting. Scotland’s scenery and landscape was a more common response among European (71%) and long haul visitors (53%) than domestic travellers, where ‘closeness to home’ and ‘holidayed before and wanted to return’ were answers that ranked similarly to scenery and landscape. It was also the top driver for repeat visits, with 47% of respondents citing this as a reason for returning. The scenery and landscape in Scotland are a significant factor in attracting both domestic and international tourists and therefore is a valuable asset to the tourism economy in Scotland.
The more recent Visit Scotland survey Seas the Day: Exploring the appeal of Scotland’s coastal destinations for visitors (2021), offers an insight into what attracts tourists to coastal regions in Scotland. Visitors to coastal regions in Scotland are most likely to visit the south coast, with these areas attracting 29% of coastal trips between 2017 and 2019. The most popular activities during trips to the coast include active pursuits such swimming, sailing, water sports and adventure sports, which together make up 49% of visitors’ activities. Walking is also a popular activity, with 39% of visitors taking part in the activity during their trip.

Aberdeenshire

Aberdeenshire’s tourism offer includes the following:

cycling and walking: Mountain biking is popular in the Cairngorms National Park, with road cycling also popular in the area. There are over 30 Munros and Corbetts in Aberdeenshire, attracting visiting walkers. The Lairig Ghru is one of Scotland’s most famous mountain passes, covering 19 miles of outstanding natural beauty from Braemar to Aviemore;
golf: popular links golf courses such as Royal Aberdeen and Murcar are located along Aberdeenshire’s coastline, with around 35 parkland and heathland courses located inland;
water sports: Surfing, diving, and sailing are all popular recreational activities on the Aberdeenshire coast;
winter sports: Royal Deeside, on the edge of the Cairngorms National Park, is a popular location for winter sports enthusiasts wanting to participate in skiing and snowboarding;
culture and arts: there is a wide variety of museums, art galleries, and theatres to cater to visitors. P&J Live, His Majesty’s Theatre, Music Hall, Lemon Tree, and The Barn all host large music events and musical theatre productions; and
history and heritage: Old Aberdeen and Footdee (“Fittie") are popular ‘Old Towns’ that attract visitors.
1. Based on the viewpoints set out in volume 2, chapter 15, the following viewpoints within the Seascape, Landscape and Visual Impact Assessment (SLVIA) study area are located in Aberdeenshire:

Representative day time viewpoints

Johnshaven (1).

Night time viewpoints

Johnshaven (1).
1. Johnshaven (1) viewpoint is the only viewpoint within the SLVIA study area located in Aberdeenshire.

Angus

Angus’ tourism offer included the following:

golf: ‘Carnoustie Country’ is a global golfing destination, with over 30 gold courses along the east coast of Scotland covering Angus, Dundee, Perth and Kinross, and Fife – all within an hour’s drive of the Carnoustie Championship Course. Montrose is the fifth oldest golf course in the world. Golf holidays are a popular option for visitors to the area;
cycling and walking: Mountain biking is a popular recreational activity in Angus, as is walking; and
fishing: visitors can enjoy river, loch, sea, and shore fishing across Angus.
1. Based on the viewpoints set out in volume 2, chapter 15, the following viewpoints within the SLVIA study area are located in Angus:

Representative day time viewpoints

Montrose (2).

Night time viewpoints

Montrose (2).

Fife

Fife’s tourism offer includes the following:

cycling and walking: 350 miles of dedicated cycle routes, and multiple mountain biking trails. Fife is included on several National Cycling Routes, including: Coast and Castles (1), River Forth (76), River Tay (766), and Clackmannanshire to Dunfermline (764). Fife Coastal Path and the Fife Pilgrim Way are popular walking routes;
golf: Fife is a global golfing destination, with almost 50 courses available to play. This includes ‘the most famous golf course in the world’ – the Old Course at St Andrews;
motorsports: Fife is home to Scotland’s national motorsport centre;
fishing: reservoir, loch, river, and sea fishing are all available for visiting anglers;
water sports: sailing and sea kayaking are popular activities off the coast of Fife;
culture and arts: there is a variety of museums, art galleries, and theatres to cater to visitors; and
history and heritage: Dunfermline Abbey, St Andrews Cathedral and Falkland Palace are popular tourist attractions.
1. Based on the viewpoints set out in volume 2, chapter 15, the following viewpoints within the SLVIA study area are located in Fife:

Representative day time viewpoints

St Andres Cathedral (3);
Cambo Sands (4);
Fife Ness (5);
Crail (6); and
Isle of May (23).

Night time viewpoints

Fife Ness (5).

East Lothian

East Lothian’s tourism offer consists primarily of outdoor recreational activities:

golf: East Lothian accommodates a number of historic golf courses. The area is home to Muirfield Golf Course, a regular host to The Open Championship;
walking: the original section of the now much longer John Muir Way is located along the East Lothian coast;
cycling: the Go East Lothian Trail spans 39 miles, and starts and finishes at North Berwick. The trail closely follows the East Lothian coast. The trail includes a number of beaches and popular tourist destinations;
fishing: takes place near Hopes and Whiteadder Reservoirs, as well as Kin Loch, the River Tyne at Dunbar, or from the harbours at Dunbar, Cockenzie, Port Seton and North Berwick. Recreational fishing trips are commonplace from these locations;
equestrianism: Horse riding is popular along the beaches of Gullane and Belhaven Bay;
water sports: diving is popular in Forth, Bass Rock and Isle of May, where shipwrecks and underwater cliffs can be explored. Windsurfing is popular at Longniddry and Gullane. North Berwick and Tantallon are popular for Kayaking, and Belhaven for surfing. The Firth of Forth in general is popular for paddle boarding. The Forth also has a rich sailing history and caters for all types of sailing, from small dinghies to large yachts. Cruising, club and national championships take place on the Firth of Forth;
tourist attractions: John Muir’s birthplace, Foxlake Adventures, Smeaton Estate, East Links Family Park, the Scottish Seabird Centre and the National Museum of Flight; and
beaches: East Lothian has numerous popular beaches, including Belhaven Bay, Yellowcraig, Seacliff, and Longniddry.
1. Based on the viewpoints set out in volume 2, chapter 15, the following viewpoints – some of which are popular tourist destinations – within the SLVIA study area are located in East Lothian:

Representative day time viewpoints

North Berwick Law (7);
Tantallon Castle (8);
Tyninghame (Ravensheugh Sands) (9);
Dunbar (10);
Skateraw (11); and
Pencraig Brae (21).

Night time viewpoints

Dunbar (10).

Scottish Borders

Scottish Border’s tourism offer also consists primarily of outdoor recreational activities:

cycling and walking: there are a number of cycling and walking routes, varying in length and covering both rural landscapes and historical sites along the routes, notably St Abbs Head nature reserve and Coldingham Bay;
fishing: the River Tweed, River Teviot and the market town of Kelso are all popular fishing spots;
golf: there are a number of golf facilities including Schloss Roxburghe Championship Golf Course at Kelso; and
Eyemouth: a fishing town that dates back to the 13th century. A popular location for walkers visiting the harbour and the historic fort as well as the beach. Historical attractions include the Eyemouth Museum and Gunsgreen House, which documents smuggling activities in the town from 18th century. Rib trips are also conducted from Eyemouth harbour.
1. Based on the viewpoints set out in volume 2, chapter 15, the following viewpoints – some of which are popular tourist destinations – within the SLVIA study area are located in Scottish Borders:

Representative day time viewpoints

Cove (12);
Fast Castle (13);
Tun Law (14).;
St Abb's Head (15);
Eyemouth (16); and
Ewelair Hill (22).

Night time viewpoints

St Abb's Head (15).

Recreation

A summary of recreational activities is set out within volume 2, chapter 17. This is not repeated here.

GVA – Tourism and Recreation

Data from Scotland’s Marine Economic Statistics (2018) indicates total GVA estimated at £579 million and 29,700 jobs. This is estimated to account for 40% of marine employment and 14% of all Scottish tourism. However, it is noted that this employment headcount is not replicated in FTE terms due to the seasonal nature of much employment. The trend data shows activity levels are increasing in this market segment.
The Forth and Tay region is identified as supporting 26% of Scottish marine tourism, including £153 million of GVA and 7,000 jobs.
Analysis of recreational sailing, boating and motor cruising identifies that these activities are highly seasonal and typically undertaken during daytime. These activities are popular around the coast of Scotland, particularly on the west coast with just 10% of profits associated with activities on the east coast.
Sailing Tourism in Scotland (ekos, 2016) covers both recreational and tourist related sailing activities for both domestic and visiting sailors. Across Scotland, the analysis identifies 15,700 berths of which 13,500 are filled by Scottish residents. Occupancy levels are high at 95%. The sector is estimated at £130 million in turnover, £68 million in GVA and supporting 2,700 FTEs. The sector is stated as growing. The study considers four regions. The east region covers the east coast from Eyemouth to Peterhead and is most applicable. This identifies 1,617 berths in the east region, 10% of the Scottish total. It is noted that 98% of berth owners are Scottish residents. This is well above the 69% average across Scotland as a whole indicating predominantly domestic activity. Total employment related to the sector in the east region is estimated at 205 FTEs, 7.5% of the Scottish total.

18.7.7. Future Baseline Scenario

The EIA Regulations require that a “a description of the relevant aspects of the current state of the environment (Baseline scenario) and an outline of the likely evolution thereof without development as far as natural changes from the Baseline scenario can be assessed with reasonable effort, on the basis of the availability of environmental information and scientific knowledge” is included within the Offshore EIA Report.
In the event that the Proposed Development does not come forward, an assessment of the future baseline conditions has been carried out and is described within this section.
Analysis by the Scottish Fiscal Commission sets out forecasts for the Scottish economy to 2026. This indicates short term growth in the economy following the downturn caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Over the medium term 2024-26 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is forecast to grow at 1.4% per annum and employment is forecast to fall nationally. As per Table 18.21 Open ▸ , the population is projected to decline in terms of natural change (births minus deaths), with in-migration playing a vital role in sustaining positive population growth (National Records of Scotland, 2020). The effects of ageing across the population will also be felt strongly. This will reduce the size of the working age population to 2043 (–0.2%).

Table 18.21: Population Projections to 2043 (2018-based) – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Whilst the working age population and employment are forecast to decline, unemployment is forecast to remain static at 4.2%.
Analysis prepared by Scottish Enterprise indicates potential recruitment difficulties and a potential shortage of engineers. The potential opportunities within the low carbon sector (including offshore wind) are stated to be recognised by businesses in Scotland. It is noted that the low carbon sector is well placed to compete for skilled workers due to the good levels of pay in the sector.
Sector analysis by Skills Development Scotland includes commentary on the energy, construction and engineering (manufacturing) sectors. Across the energy sector as a whole the workforce is expected to decline by 2031. However, there will continue to be employment opportunities as a result of replacement demand. Major growth is forecast within the offshore wind sector workforce, from 3,500 to 20,000 by 2031 as deals materialise. Within the construction sector, employment is forecast to grow faster than the whole economy average, with high levels of replacement demand fuelling further employment opportunity. Within the engineering sector, the workforce is expected to grow, but at a slower rate than the whole economy average.
Section 18.4 sets out that Scottish Government, regional public sector economic development stakeholders, and local authorities are planning for future economic growth in the renewable energy sector, which includes offshore wind activities. The strategic planning policy environment, if realised, will result in increased employment and GVA in offshore wind related activities.
Overall, the data shows relatively weak performance of the Scottish economy anticipated in the medium term, with a declining population and falling levels of total employment. The offshore wind sector is identified as a key growth opportunity, but is reliant on investments, such as the Proposed Development being secured. Without such investments, the scale of growth in the offshore wind sector as forecast will not be realised.
As per section 18.4, national and local strategic planning environments plan for increased housing provision. This sits alongside economic plans to support and facilitate growth in the economy and particularly the offshore wind industry within socio-economics local study areas and socio-economics national study area. These policies are formulated in order to provide sufficient homes for workers.

Ports development

A summary of available port and harbour masterplans, along with future development plans reported by Scottish Energy Ports Capability Directory, relevant to port and harbour facilities under consideration is set out in Table 18.22 Open ▸ . This summary highlights the planned expansion of port and harbour facilities to accommodate additional activities.

Table 18.22: Summary of Publicly Available Port and Harbour Masterplans and Future Development Plans

Offshore wind farm development

As per volume 2, chapter 15 (section 15.7.3), offshore wind farms are set to form a key characteristic of the evolving baseline character of the area of coastline in proximity to the outer Firth of Forth. This would also be true in the absence of the Proposed Development, which follows other developments incorporating Neart na Gaoithe and Seagreen (both under construction), and the consented Inch Cape. These developments are situated in between the Proposed Development array area and the impacted area of coastline.

18.7.8. Data Limitations and Assumptions

Specific data on employment and GVA within offshore wind activities specifically is not available across socio-economics local study areas on a consistent basis.
Conventional modelling of economic impacts for most industrial sectors relies on government statistics, for example, those based on SIC07 codes. SIC07 data is most appropriate for traditional industries. The development of new codes for a maturing sector such as offshore wind, however, takes time. At this stage, there are currently no SIC07 codes specific to the offshore wind sector. This means that conventional SIC analyses of offshore wind and related activities needs to map existing SIC07 data onto offshore wind and related activities, which is not straightforward. Analyses using SIC07 codes also rely on generalised data. This means that – either intentionally or unintentionally – some activities relevant to offshore wind and related activities might be excluded, and other activity unrelated to offshore wind and related activities might be included. There is no officially agreed definition to be used when assessing the offshore wind related industry based on SIC07 codes.
Use of BRES data covers the period 2015 to 2019 as there is a discontinuity with earlier data (pre-2015) following the inclusion of PAYE only businesses in the dataset.
Employment, GVA, and labour market data for 2020/21 is not included due to the labour market uncertainty resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. Multiple lockdowns and government measures to mitigate subsequent adverse economic impacts (for example, the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme) created a highly unusual set of circumstances potentially impacting official labour market statistics. Exclusion of 2020/21 data ensures this limitation does not impact data and statistics used in this chapter.
Data on economic activity rates and resident-based employment are collected via the Annual Population Survey. As this is a survey, data from smaller areas (e.g. local authority level) can exhibit greater volatility than data from larger areas due to smaller sample sizes. These limitations are not deemed to be of sufficient scale to undermine the validity of the assessment and remain the best available data.
Tourism data is available from Visit Scotland on the basis of tourism regions (as defined by Visit Scotland). These definitions are set out as per volume 3, appendix 18.5. For the most part, these regions do not match exactly with the socio-economic and tourism local study area definitions set out in Table 18.2 Open ▸ . The baseline environments of Visit Scotland’s tourism regions are adopted as a proxy for the baseline conditions in the relevant socio-economic and tourism local study area.

18.8. Methodology for Assessment of Effects

18.8.1. Overview

The socio-economics and tourism assessment of effects has followed the methodology set out in volume 1, chapter 6 of the Offshore EIA Report. There is no official guidance or legislation governing the process of socio-economics and tourism EIA assessment of effects.
This chapter’s approach is based on the most up-to-date and relevant methods available at the time of writing. Marine Scotland Licensing Operations Team (MS-LOT) guidance on socio-economic assessment of effects of offshore wind schemes is not currently available (at time of consent submission). However, relevant consultation responses to date from MAU (see section 18.5) make recommendations in alignment with the broad contents of the draft guidance, ensuring this chapter’s approach is as aligned as possible at this stage with the approach anticipated to be set out in the guidance.
However, specific to the socio-economic and tourism EIA, the following (non-binding) guidance document has been considered:

Glasson, J. el al. (2020). Guidance on assessing the socio-economic impacts of offshore wind farms, Oxford Brookes University.

18.8.2. Criteria for Assessment of Effects

The process for determining the significance of effects is a two-stage process that involves defining the magnitude of the potential impacts and the sensitivity of the receptors. This section describes the criteria applied in this chapter to assign values to the magnitude of potential impacts and the sensitivity of the receptors. The terms used to define magnitude and sensitivity are based on those which are described in further detail in volume 1, chapter 6 of the Offshore EIA Report.
As this assessment sets out magnitude, sensitivity and significance for multiple study areas, the assessment has been tabulated for ease of interpretation. In addition, for each potential impact pathway, the baseline conditions for which magnitude and sensitivity are assessed are presented within the specific impact pathway assessment.
The criteria for defining magnitude in this chapter are outlined in Table 18.24 Open ▸ . In determining magnitude within this chapter, each assessment considered the spatial extent, duration, frequency and reversibility of impact and these are outlined within the magnitude section of each assessment of effects (e.g. a duration of hours or days would be considered for most receptors to be of short term duration, which is likely to result in a low magnitude of impact).

Table 18.23: Definition of Terms Relating to the Magnitude of an Impact

For each impact under consideration, the magnitude of employment and/or GVA impacts is assessed against multiple baseline conditions and aggregated to a single magnitude level as appropriate. In order to ensure consistency of interpretation, the magnitude assessed against each baseline condition is assigned a value as per Table 18.24 Open ▸ . The average value across baseline conditions is then calculated and used to determine the overall magnitude.
This chapter assesses impacts predicted to last for more than two years as ‘long term’, impacts predicted to last between six months and two years as medium term, and impacts predicted to last less than six months as short term.
The criteria for defining sensitivity in this chapter are outlined in Table 18.25 Open ▸ .

Table 18.24: Definition of Terms Relating to the Sensitivity of the Receptor

As per section 18.4, increasing employment in the renewable energy sector, including offshore wind activities specifically, is a policy objective at the national (Scotland) level. It is also a policy objective of each local authority which has a potential construction facility located within its boundary to ensure renewable energy plays a role in its future economic development. As set out at section 18.7.4, the offshore wind sector is identified as a growth opportunity within a more broadly defined energy sector which is forecast to experience employment decline, and medium-term declines in employment and population more generally across Scotland. As such, the sensitivity of all receptors at all phases of development are assessed as high unless otherwise stated, due to assessment of capacity/recoverability of receptors.
The significance of the effect upon socio-economics and tourism is determined by considering both the magnitude of the impact and the sensitivity of the receptor. The particular method employed for this assessment is presented in Table 18.26 Open ▸ .
In cases where a range is suggested for the significance of effect, there remains the possibility that this may span the significance threshold (i.e. the range is given as minor to moderate). In such cases the final significance conclusion is based upon the author's professional judgement as to which outcome delineates the most likely effect. Where professional judgement is applied to quantify final significance from a range, the assessment will set out the factors that result in the final assessment of significance. These factors may include the likelihood that an effect will occur, data certainty and relevant information about the wider environmental context.
For the purposes of this assessment:

a level of residual effect of moderate or above will be considered a ‘significant’ effect in terms of the EIA Regulations; and
a level of residual effect of minor or less will be considered ‘not significant’ in terms of the EIA Regulations.
1. In cases where a range is suggested for the significance of effect, there remains the possibility that this may span the significance threshold (i.e. the range is given as minor to moderate). In such cases the final significance is based upon the author’s professional judgement as to which outcome delineates the most likely effect.

Table 18.25: Matrix Used for the Assessment of the Significance of the Effect

18.8.3. Technical Impact Report

The Technical Impact Report at volume 3, appendix 18.1 (BVG Associates, 2021) sets out an economic analysis of the Project. This has been prepared to inform the socio-economics and tourism assessment of effects from the Proposed Development.
The technical impact analysis considers direct, indirect and induced employment and GVA effects at local, Scotland and UK level across a detailed breakdown of project phases. The approach draws on BVG Associates proprietary methodology. The full methodology employed is set out within the report and its own appendices.

Wind Farm Options Considered

The Technical Impact Report considers the potential economic impacts of the wind farm under two different wind farm options – Option 1 and Option 2 (detailed below). Published in December 2021, the Technical Impact Report is based on a point-in-time project description at the time of publishing. Under the ‘options’ considered, the design of the wind farm is the same, except for the following variations in transmission:

‘option 1’: 2.3 GW High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC) and 1.8 GW High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC); and
‘option 2’: 4.1 GW of HVDC.
1. These are the named options considered in the Technical Impact Report – as per the project description at the time of publishing. The names of these options (Option 1 and Option 2) differ from those detailed in the Proposed Development’s project description as defined for consenting (Combined Option A, Combined Option B, and HVDC Option). The differences and interactions between both sets of Options is considered in Table 18.26 Open ▸ below.
2. The expenditure for options 1 and 2 considered in the Technical Impact Report is identical for the development (DEVEX, £0.1 bn), operation and maintenance (OPEX, £6.0 bn), and decommissioning phases (DECEX, £0.2 bn). There is a minor variation for construction phase CAPEX with Option 1 measured at £9.6 bn and Option 2 £9.7bn. This is equivalent to approximately 1% additional CAPEX for Option 2. The derived economic impacts under each scenario are therefore subject to very minor variations which are not sufficient to have any substantive impact on the assessment of significance of effects.
3. The stated CAPEX and OPEX figures are preliminary, and based on the best available information relating to supply chain and procurement conditions at the time the BVGA report was prepared. These figures will be subject to a degree of change throughout the project lifetime, as a result of external macro economic factors such as inflationary effects, and internal project factors such as delivery models. It is unlikely that such changes to CAPEX and OPEX would materially affect the assessments of this Chapter.

Adjusting impacts to exclude Cambois connection

Since the Technical Impact report was published – on the basis of the options described above – the project description has changed. As described in volume 1, chapter 3, the Applicant is developing an additional export cable grid connection to Blyth, Northumberland (the Cambois connection). Applications for necessary consents (including marine licenses) will be applied for separately.
The options considered in the Technical Impact Report include capacity that will be delivered via the Cambois connection – the impacts assessed in the Technical Impact Report therefore include impacts associated with the Cambois connection. As such, it is necessary to adjust the impacts assessed in the Technical Impact Report to account for the separate application covering the Cambois connection i.e. discount employment and GVA impacts to remove those associated with the Cambois connection – to consider only the options comprised in the Proposed Development for the assessment of impacts from the project alone. These options include HVAC and HVDC solutions for the Offshore Transmission Infrastructure as follows:

combined Option A or Combined Option B – a combined HVAC/HVDC solution comprising the following:

– up to eight HVAC OSPs to facilitate connections to Branxton and two HVDC Offshore convertor station platforms that would be required for the Cambois connection; or

– up to five larger HVAC OSPs to facilitate connections to Branxton and two HVDC Offshore convertor station platforms that would be required for the Cambois connection.

HVDC Option: Up to five HVDC Offshore convertor station platforms, two for the Branxton connection and two for the additional Cambois connection. This also includes an offshore interconnector platform.
1. The two sets of options interact as follows in Table 18.26 Open ▸ :

Table 18.26: Interaction of Options Considered in Technical Impact Report and Proposed Development Application

Of the level 2 supply chain categories set out in Table 18.27 Open ▸ , it is anticipated the following categories include impacts which cover the separate applications, and would require adjustment:

Table 18.27: Adjustment of Technical Impact Report Assessment to Exclude Cambois Connection – by Level 2 Supply Chain Category

Impacts associated with the Cambois connection will be considered cumulatively in section 18.12.

Procurement scenarios

The Technical Impact Report considers four alternative procurement scenarios. These are defined as follows (listed from lowest UK content to highest):

A low UK content scenario, where significant UK, Scottish and local suppliers are unsuccessful in the procurement process;
A baseline UK supply scenario, where procurement decisions are based on the current competitiveness of the Scottish and rest of UK supply chain;
An enhanced UK supply scenario, where all plausible procurement decisions for local, Scottish and UK supply are included; and
A 60% UK content scenario, which considers what procurement decisions are needed to reach 60% UK content. Table 18.29 Open ▸ sets out the local, Scottish and UK content shares across the four procurement scenarios.

Table 18.28: Local, Scottish and UK Content Procurement Scenarios (Shares)

Across all four procurement scenarios local content is estimated at 7%. Therefore, the choice of scenario does not materially impact on the assessment of local impact.
Scottish content is similar for both the low and baseline scenarios with a more marked step to the enhanced and 60% scenarios.
The baseline scenario was developed drawing on existing conditions in the offshore wind sector and supply chain activities, and does not assume a worsening or improvement in conditions as in the case of the alternative scenarios. Confidence in the baseline UK supply scenario is high and allows a suitably precautious approach in avoiding overstating economic benefits. The variations across local and Scottish content measures when compared to the low content scenario are modest. It is therefore adopted as a plausible, realistic and suitable scenario for assessing socio-economic and tourism effects where a minimum design scenario is required.
The enhanced UK supply scenario is deemed plausible with appropriate engagement and favourable procurement decisions. This scenario takes account of known emerging investments in the Scottish supply chain. The enhanced scenario is therefore appropriate to be considered as part of the assessment as a plausible, realistic and suitable maximum design scenario. This includes an increased share of both Scottish and UK content. This includes selection of a Scottish based construction staging port for wind turbine installation which is an important consideration for assessing housing, accommodation and local services impacts.
Based on the current status of the UK offshore wind sector supply chain there is a substantial step change required to reach 60% UK content. In order to achieve this level, the combined efforts of UK and Scottish Governments, offshore wind developers, Tier 1 and 2 contractors and other key offshore wind sector stakeholders will be needed. Facilitating the required enhancements to UK supply chain’s capability to deliver 60% UK content will be beyond any single project. This is deemed unlikely to be achieved in full within the required time period for the construction phase of the Proposed Development. This has been confirmed by stakeholder consultees. The uncertainty surrounding where the required level of supply chain activity and investment will be located makes the 60% UK content scenario unsuitable for assessment. This accords with stakeholder comment that there is a tendency to consider unrealistic and over ambitious economic impact scenarios.
There is no change in local or Scottish content across the baseline and enhanced scenarios during the operation and maintenance or decommissioning phases. Variation is only present in the construction and installation phase.
To aid readability, the baseline UK supply scenario has been taken forward for full assessment – the enhanced UK supply scenario is discussed at the end of each construction phase assessment of effects, with any notable differences highlighted for the reader’s benefit alongside an assessment of significance. Additional data or analysis tables are included where appropriate.
Table 18.29 Open ▸ sets out the key variations between the baseline and enhanced procurement scenarios. This shows that the enhanced scenario captures an increased share of CAPEX through the construction phase, with the operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases being considered in the same way across both scenarios.

Table 18.29: Local, Scottish and UK Content Procurement Scenarios (Detailed Assumptions)

Construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phase impacts

The impacts assessed under level 1 and 2 supply chain categories as part of the Technical Impact Report have been aggregated to provide headline impacts for construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases as per Table 18.30 Open ▸ .

Table 18.30: Classification of Level 1 and Level 2 Supply Chain Categories by Construction, Operation and Maintenance, and Decommissioning Phase

Construction phase impacts are presented as ‘maximum concurrent’ FTE years / GVA. This is a measure of peak construction impacts based on:

annualised impacts of level 2 supply chain categories based on the anticipated construction duration of each phase of works; and
the point at which the overlap of these would create the highest level of employment/GVA impacts i.e. maximum concurrent.

18.8.4. Support Harbours

The socio-economics and tourism local (support harbours) study area is assessed against an indicative 25% of the overall impacts. This is because these support harbours would only play a supporting role in the operation and maintenance phase. As per Table 18.2 Open ▸ , these facilities do not have the capacity to accommodate the full impacts of this phase, and as such would not be selected to do so. Using professional expert judgement, a conservative figure of 25% has been selected for this study area (conservative as the level of activity at support harbours is still likely to be lower than this).

18.9. Measures Adopted as Part of the Proposed Development

Rather than mitigation there are potential opportunities to secure enhanced beneficial effects within the socio-economics local study areas, socio-economics national study area, and tourism local study area.
The Applicant has already engaged in early stage discussions with potential Tier 1 suppliers, key national and regional socio-economic stakeholders including Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise to explore matters relating to labour, skills and inward investment. This builds on existing working relationships established via other offshore wind projects that have been developed or are in development by the Applicant.
The Applicant has committed to being a member of a local skills and supply chain forum, if established. The Applicant attended a ‘kick off’ meeting on 18 March 2022 with other representatives across the energy industry. The forum is being organised and chaired by Paul McLennan, Member of Scottish Parliament (MSP) (MSP for East Lothian).
The Applicant’s designed in measures which will be established are set out below.

Supply Chain Engagement Plan: setting out initiatives to enhance opportunities for procurement from local and Scottish suppliers and to drive the investment in new facilities associated with the development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation supply chain. This looks to act on the opportunity presented by a more reliable pipeline of offshore wind sector activity, and tackle the historic lack of investment in supply chain capacity – this aligns with the Scottish Government’s commitment to deliver on the ambitions of Scotland’s offshore wind programme. This pipeline of activity can create market certainty for investors to facilitate the establishment of new and increased supply chain capabilities in Scotland – as pointed out by Highlands and Islands Enterprise and Scottish Enterprise during consultation;
Local Recruitment Plan: setting out initiatives to ensure local residents are aware of, and given opportunity to access employment opportunities. This will include a Local Skills Plan setting out opportunities and actions for engagement to enable local residents and training providers to prepare for anticipated employment opportunities; and
1. The Applicant is committed to the creation of a Community Benefit Fund pending the grant of consent for the Project. A Berwick Bank Community Benefit Fund would be established in partnership with local stakeholders to ensure that local communities help set the priorities for the fund, as well as decide on what gets funded. The details of the Community Benefit Fund would be established after a consent determination has been made. Ahead of establishing any formal Fund, the Project team are keen to support local initiatives where possible and have invited local stakeholders to discuss opportunities directly with the Project team. To date the Project has supported various local organisations and initiatives such as the North Berwick Fringe By The Sea Festival, the Scottish Seabird Centre and the National Merlin Rocket Yachting Championship, held in East Lothian. In addition to this the Project team are working alongside local education partners to explore a variety of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) benefits that the Project can bring to the East Lothian area. The Project team are members of the East Lothian Industry and Education Partnership and are also members of the Mid and East Lothian Chamber of Commerce.

18.10. Key Parameters for Assessment

18.10.1. Maximum Design Scenario

The maximum design scenarios identified in Table 18.31 Open ▸ have been selected as those having the potential to result in the greatest effect on an identified receptor or receptor group. These scenarios have been selected from the details provided in volume 1, chapter 3 of the Offshore EIA Report, along with the Technical Impact Report in volume 3, appendix 18.1 (BVG Associates, 2021). Effects of greater adverse significance are not predicted to arise should any other development scenario, based on details within the Project Design Envelope (e.g. different infrastructure layout), to that assessed here, be taken forward in the final design scheme.
Volume 3, appendix 18.1 sets out impacts locally and across the ‘Rest of Scotland’ area. In discussions with BVG Associates it was noted that the locations identified as under consideration as construction ports could accommodate some of the rest of Scotland activity for installation and commissioning. The exact locations for activities is subject to a range of procurement decisions and other factors including capacity and scheduling at suitable ports. In determining appropriate scenarios for consideration, it was agreed that it was implausible that all elements of installation and commissioning activity would be located at a single staging port location. The most plausible option was deemed to be each element of installation and commissioning activity (wind turbine, foundation, inter-array cables, offshore export cables, OSPs/Offshore convertor station platforms) being located within different port locations suitably located to access the array, but that some colocation of elements is possible. The combination of co-located construction supply chain activities is listed for each impact.

Table 18.31: Maximum Design Scenario Considered for Each Impact as Part of the Assessment of Likely Significant Effects on Socio-Economics and Tourism

18.10.2. Impacts Scoped out of the Assessment

On the basis of the baseline environment and the project description outlined in volume 1, chapter 3 of the Offshore EIA Report, no impacts are proposed to be scoped out of the assessment for socio-economics and tourism.

Commercial fisheries

Impacts on activities associated with commercial fisheries such as temporary loss or restricted access to fishing grounds have been considered in terms of socio-economic impacts such as changes to income for fishers and fishing related businesses.
Volume 1, chapter 12 has assessed no significant effects in EIA terms on activities associated with commercial fisheries. Therefore, it is assessed there are likely to be no socio-economic effects on commercial fisheries receptors that are significant in EIA terms.

18.11. Assessment of Significance

The potential effects arising from the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning phases of the Proposed Development are listed in Table 18.31 Open ▸ , along with the maximum design scenario against which each effect has been assessed in terms of its likely significance. An assessment of the likely significance of the effects of the Proposed Development on socio-economics and tourism receptors caused by each identified impact is given below.

Impact on Employment in Activities (Including Supply Chain) Associated with: Manufacturing, Construction and Installation; Operation and Maintenance; and Decommissioning

This impact is applicable to the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases. The assessment draws on the employment impacts as set out in the supporting Technical Report in volume 3, appendix 18.1.

Magnitude – Assessment Approach

The magnitude of employment impacts is assessed against the following baseline conditions:

share of total employment across all industries (2019): this gives an indication of the scale of the impact in the context of the receiving environment’s employment base;
share of total employment in impact industries (2019): this gives an indication of the scale of the impact in the context of the receiving environment’s impact industries employment base; and
share of total employment in offshore wind sector (2019): this gives an indication of the scale of the impact in the context of the receiving environment’s offshore wind sector employment base. Data for this receptor is not available below the national level and therefore quantitative analysis is excluded for socio-economics local study area assessments.
1. The criteria against which magnitude of employment impacts are assessed and can be found in Table 18.32 Open ▸ .

Table 18.32: Magnitude of Employment Impacts Assessment Criteria

Sensitivity – Assessment Approach

Sensitivity to employment impacts is assessed against the following baseline condition:

policy environment: whether an area’s policy position has the aim of making the offshore wind sector part of its approach to economic development. This can also be through providing jobs, skills, education, and training for local residents to work in the offshore wind sector. Policy aims to provide the same opportunity in the renewable energy sector will also be considered as important. General policy aims to provide jobs, skills, education, and training for local residents in any sector will also be considered.

Construction Phase

Potential expenditure on the following activities associated with the Proposed Development could support employment in local and Scottish companies that are directly engaged in the development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation supply chain:

wind turbine manufacturing and supply – blades, nacelle, hub, tower;
balance of plant manufacturing and supply – foundations, inter-array cables, OSPs/Offshore convertor station platforms, offshore export cables; and
construction and installation of wind turbines and balance of plant – wind turbine, foundation, inter-array cables, and other installation.
1. The development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation of the Proposed Development could also go on to support employment indirectly in the wider Scottish supply chain and as a result of workers spending their wages (induced effects).
2. A maximum 96 month construction period has been assumed throughout.
3. The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation under the Baseline procurement scenario activities are set out in Table 18.33 Open ▸ . This will create opportunities to both safeguard existing employment and facilitate new employment.

Table 18.33: Potential Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) of the Proposed Development on Employment in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of Impact

Employment impacts have been assessed on the basis of direct, indirect, and induced impacts:

direct impacts result from the activities of the Applicant and its major contractors;
indirect impacts result from the activities of suppliers to the Applicant or its major contractors; and
induced impacts result from the personal expenditure of individuals working on the wind farm (direct and indirect).
1. On the basis of a maximum 96 month construction period, the impact is assessed as long term. Due to the contract based nature of manufacturing, construction, and installation activities, the impact is assessed as intermittent.
2. As discussed in section 18.3, impacts are considered across multiple socio-economics local study areas linked to the selection of construction ports, and the associated supply of a range of inputs and services. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.34 Open ▸ .

Table 18.34: Comparison of Construction Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of impact for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.35 Open ▸ . The share of offshore wind sector employment within the local study areas is inferred based on the nationally available data.

Table 18.35: Magnitude of Construction Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23 Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the Receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high – a summary is set out in Table 18.36 Open ▸ .

Table 18.36: Sensitivity of Employment in Activities (Including Supply Chain) Associated with Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Significance of the Effect

The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area are set out in Table 18.37 Open ▸ .

Table 18.37: Significance of Construction Phase Employment Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Alternative Procurement Scenarios

The core assessment set out above has been undertaken on the Baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken to the Enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial effects are greater.
The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Enhanced procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.38 Open ▸ .

Table 18.38: Potential Impacts (Enhanced Procurement Scenario) of the Proposed Development on Employment in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of BVG Associates (2021). Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Under the Enhanced scenario, there is some increase in the employment impacts assessed at the socio-economics local study area level during construction phase. The quantitative assessment indicates some increases in the magnitude of impacts at this level. However, the changes in employment impacts are not judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects – therefore no change in significance of effect is assessed at the socio-economics local study area level.
Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics local study area level the significance of effects assessed remain unchanged from the Baseline scenario as per Table 18.37 Open ▸ above.
There is a substantial increase in the employment impacts assessed under the Enhanced scenario at the socio-economics national study area level during construction phase. The quantitative assessment indicates an increase from moderate to major (beneficial) to major (beneficial) significance of effects at this level. The increase in employment impacts are judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects.
Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics national study area level the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be high (beneficial) and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will be of major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

The Applicant has committed to enhancement of beneficial effects as per section 18.9. No secondary mitigation is required.

Operation and Maintenance Phase

Potential expenditure on the following activities associated with the Proposed Development could support employment in Scottish companies that are directly engaged in the operation and maintenance supply chain:

wind turbine, balance of plant, and transmission maintenance and servicing; and
vessel and crew activity.
1. The operation and maintenance of the Proposed Development could also go on to support employment indirectly in the wider supply chain.
2. A 35 year operation period has been assumed throughout.
3. The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on employment in operation and maintenance activities at the socio-economics local study area level are set out in Table 18.39 Open ▸ .

Table 18.39: Potential Impacts of the Proposed Development on Employment in Operation and Maintenance Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of Impact

Employment impacts have been assessed on the basis of direct, indirect and induced impacts.
On the basis of a 35 year operation period, the impact is assessed as long term. The majority of operation and maintenance activities will be on a continuous rolling programme. The impact is therefore assessed as continuous.
As discussed in section 18.3, impacts are considered across multiple socio-economics local study areas linked to the selection of operation and maintenance port and harbour facilities, and the associated supply of a range of inputs and services. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.40 Open ▸ .

Table 18.40: Comparison of Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of impact, and associated justification, for each socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.41 Open ▸ .

Table 18.41: Magnitude of Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23 Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the Receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high – a summary is set out in Table 18.42 Open ▸ .

Table 18.42: Sensitivity of Employment in Activities (Including Supply Chain) Associated with Operation and Maintenance – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Significance of the Effect

The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics and tourism and national study area is set out in Table 18.43 Open ▸ .

Table 18.43: Significance of Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Across the socio-economics local study area the significance of the impact is deemed to be of overall moderate to major beneficial significance. This is significant in EIA terms.
For the socio-economics national study area the significance of the impact is deemed to be of overall moderate to major beneficial significance. This is significant in EIA terms.

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

The Applicant has committed to enhancement of beneficial effects as per section 18.9. No secondary mitigation is required.

Decommissioning Phase

Potential expenditure on decommissioning of wind turbine and balance of plant associated with the Proposed Development could support employment in activities associated with decommissioning in the socio-economics local study areas and socio-economics national study area.
The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. It is anticipated that all structures above seabed level will be removed, but subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts.
No plans are in place to consider potential locations for decommissioning support ports. It is not known if this will be located in Scotland. Given the need for large lay down areas the four ports identified as being under consideration for the construction phase would have the greatest potential to accommodate decommissioning activities based on current circumstances.
The Technical Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1) notes that the workforce for the decommissioning of the offshore parts of the wind farm is likely to be supported in a similar way to installation and commissioning.
On this basis the magnitude of effects would be lower than those set out for the construction phase under the baseline and enhanced scenarios.
The significance of effects assessed at construction phase for employment in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities are set out in Table 18.37 Open ▸ . On the basis of currently available evidence the significance of effects for the decommissioning phase will be no greater than moderate beneficial significance across socio-economics local study areas and the socio-economics national study area. This is significant in EIA terms.

Impact on GVA (£) Supported in Activities (Including Supply Chain) Associated with: Manufacturing, Construction and Installation; Operation and Maintenance; and Decommissioning

Economic activities undertaken in local and national study areas will support the creation of GVA, a measure of economic output.
This impact is applicable to the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases.

Magnitude – Assessment Approach

Magnitude of GVA impacts is assessed against the following baseline conditions:

share of total GVA across all industries (2019): this gives an indication of the scale of the impact in the context of the receiving environment’s GVA output;
share of total GVA in impact industries (2019): this gives an indication of the scale of the impact in the context of the receiving environment’s impact industries GVA output; and
share of total GVA in offshore wind sector (2019): this gives an indication of the scale of the impact in the context of the receiving environment’s offshore wind sector GVA output. Data for this receptor is not available below the national level and is therefore excluded for Socio-Economics local study area assessments.
1. The criteria against which magnitude of GVA impacts are assessed and can be found in Table 18.44 Open ▸ .

Table 18.44: Magnitude of GVA Impacts Assessment Criteria

This is based on average annual GVA growth of 3.7% across all industries in the UK (see section 18.7.3).

Sensitivity – Assessment Approach

Sensitivity of GVA impacts is assessed against the following baseline condition:

policy environment: whether an area’s policy position has the aim of making the offshore wind sector part of its approach to economic development. This can be through increasing direct activity in the offshore wind sector, or indirectly through the supply chain. Policy aims to provide the same increase in activity in the renewable energy sector will also be considered as important.

Construction Phase

Potential expenditure on the following activities associated with the Proposed Development could support GVA in Scottish companies that are directly engaged in the development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation supply chain:

wind turbine manufacturing and supply – blades, nacelle, hub, tower;
balance of plant manufacturing and supply – foundations, inter-array cables, OSPs/Offshore convertor station platforms, offshore export cables; and
construction and installation of wind turbine and balance of plant – wind turbine, foundation, inter-array cables, and other installation.
1. The development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation of the Proposed Development could also go on to support GVA indirectly in the wider Scottish supply chain.
2. A maximum 96 month construction period has been assumed throughout.
3. The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on GVA in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities are set out in Table 18.45 Open ▸ .

Table 18.45: Potential Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) of the Proposed Development on GVA in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of Impact

GVA impacts have been assessed on the basis of direct, indirect, and induced impacts.
On the basis of a maximum 96 month construction period, the impact is assessed as long term. Due to the contract-based nature of manufacturing, construction, and installation activities, the impact is assessed as intermittent.
As discussed in section 18.3, impacts are considered across multiple socio-economics local study areas linked to the selection of construction ports, and the associated supply of a range of inputs and services. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.46 Open ▸

Table 18.46: Comparison of Construction Phase GVA Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of impact, and associated justification, for each socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.47 Open ▸ .

Table 18.47: Magnitude of Construction Phase GVA Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23 Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the Receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high – a summary is set out in Table 18.48 Open ▸ .

Table 18.48: Sensitivity of GVA in Activities (Including Supply Chain) Associated with Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Significance of the Effect

The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.49 Open ▸ .

Table 18.49: Significance of Construction Phase GVA Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Alternative Procurement Scenarios

The core assessment set out above has been undertaken on the Baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken to the enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial effects are greater.
The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on GVA in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Enhanced procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.50 Open ▸ .

Table 18.50: Potential Impacts (Enhanced Procurement Scenario) of the Proposed Development on GVA in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of BVG Associates (2021). Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Under the Enhanced scenario, there is some increase in the GVA impacts assessed at the Socio-Economics local study area level during construction phase. The quantitative assessment indicates some increases in the magnitude of impacts at this level. However, the changes in GVA impacts are not judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects – also GVA impacts are already assessed as major beneficial for the majority of socio-economics local study areas under the Baseline scenario. Therefore no change in significance of effect is assessed at the socio-economics local study area level.
Under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics local study area level the significance of effects assessed remain unchanged from the Baseline scenario as per Table 18.49 Open ▸ above.
There is a substantial increase in the GVA impacts assessed under the Enhanced scenario at the socio-economics national study area level during construction phase. The quantitative assessment indicates an increase from moderate to major (beneficial) to major (beneficial) magnitude of impacts at this level. The increase in GVA impacts are judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects.
Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the Socio-Economics national study area level the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be high (beneficial) and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will be of major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

The Applicant has committed to enhancement of beneficial effects as per section 18.9. No secondary mitigation is required.

Operation and Maintenance Phase

Potential expenditure on the following activities associated with the Proposed Development could support GVA in Scottish companies that are directly engaged in the operation and maintenance supply chain:

wind turbine, balance of plant, and transmission maintenance and servicing; and
vessel and crew activity.
1. The operation and maintenance of the Proposed Development could also go on to support GVA indirectly in the wider supply chain.
2. A 35 year operation period has been assumed throughout.
3. The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on GVA in operation and maintenance activities at the socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area levels are set out in Table 18.51 Open ▸ .

Table 18.51: Potential Impacts of the Proposed Development on GVA in Operation and Maintenance Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of Impact

GVA impacts have been assessed on the basis of direct, indirect, and induced impacts.
On the basis of a 35 year operation period, the impact is assessed as long term. Due to the contract-based nature of operation and maintenance activities, the impact is assessed as intermittent.
A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.52 Open ▸ .

Table 18.52: Comparison of Operation and Maintenance Phase GVA Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of impact, and associated justification, for each Socio-Economics local study area is set out in Table 18.53 Open ▸ .

Table 18.53: Magnitude of Operation and Maintenance Phase GVA Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23 Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the Receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high – a summary is set out in Table 18.54 Open ▸ .

Table 18.54: Sensitivity of GVA in Activities (Including Supply Chain) Associated with Operation and Maintenance – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Significance of the Effect

The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area is set out in Table 18.55 Open ▸ .

Table 18.55: Significance of Operation and Maintenance Phase GVA Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

The Applicant has committed to enhancement of beneficial effects as per section 18.9. No secondary mitigation required.

Decommissioning Phase

Potential expenditure on decommissioning of wind turbine and balance of plant associated with the Proposed Development could support GVA in activities associated with decommissioning in the socio-economics local study areas and socio-economics national study area.
The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. It is anticipated that all structures above seabed level will be removed, but subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts.
No plans are in place to consider potential locations for decommissioning support ports. It is not known if this will be located in Scotland. Given the need for large lay down areas the four ports identified as being under consideration for the construction phase would have the greatest potential to accommodate decommissioning activities based on current circumstances.
The Technical Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1) notes that activity associated with decommissioning of the offshore parts of the wind farm is likely to be supported in a similar way to installation and commissioning. However, the scale of activity will be reduced given the intention to leave cables in situ.
On this basis the magnitude of effects would be lower than those set out for the construction phase under the baseline and enhanced scenarios.
The significance of effects assessed at construction phase for GVA in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities are set out in Table 18.49 Open ▸ . On the basis of currently available evidence the significance of effects for the decommissioning phase will be no greater than moderate beneficial significance across socio-economics local study areas and the socio-economics national study area. This is significant in EIA terms.

Impact on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Activities (Including Supply Chain) Associated with: Manufacturing, Construction and Installation; Operation and Maintenance; and Decommissioning

The expenditure in both local and national study areas will create a range of employment opportunity for residents within the respective areas. This will include supporting existing workforces within the supply chain as well as the creation of new roles where expansion of the sector is facilitated.
This impact is applicable to the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases.

Magnitude – Assessment Approach

Magnitude of employment impacts are assessed against the following baseline conditions:

economic activity (2019): using the economically active population as a benchmark to assess the scale of impact on the current available workforce; and
economically inactive individuals that want a job and unemployed population (2019): comparison with this figure gives an indication of the scale of employment impacts in the context of potentially available workforce within an area.
1. The criteria against which magnitude of employment impacts amongst local residents are assessed and can be found in Table 18.56 Open ▸ .

Table 18.56: Magnitude of employment impacts amongst local residents assessment criteria

Sensitivity – Assessment Approach

Sensitivity of employment impacts are assessed against the following baseline condition:

policy environment: whether an area’s policy position has the aim of providing jobs, skills, education, and training for local residents to work in the offshore wind sector. Policy aims to provide the same opportunity in the renewable energy sector will also be considered as important. General policy aims to provide jobs, skills, education, and training for local residents in any sector will also be considered.

Construction Phase

Potential expenditure on the following activities associated with the Proposed Development could improve access to employment amongst local residents in activities (including supply chain) associated with development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation:

wind turbine manufacturing and supply – blades, nacelle, hub, tower;
balance of plant manufacturing and supply – foundations, inter-array cables, OSPs/Offshore convertor station platforms, offshore export cables; and
construction and installation of wind turbine and balance of plant – wind turbine, foundation, inter-array cables, and other installation.
1. The development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation of the Proposed Development could also go on to support access to employment amongst local residents indirectly in the wider Scottish supply chain.
2. A maximum 96 month construction period has been assumed throughout.
3. The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on access to employment amongst local residents in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities are set out in Table 18.57 Open ▸ .

Table 18.57: Potential Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) of the Proposed Development on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of Impact

Employment impacts have been assessed on the basis of direct, indirect, and induced impacts.
On the basis of a maximum 96 month construction period, the impact is assessed as long term. Due to the contract-based nature of manufacturing, construction, and installation activities, the impact is assessed as intermittent.
As discussed in section 18.3, impacts are considered across multiple socio-economics local study areas linked to the selection of construction ports, and the associated supply of a range of inputs and services.
A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.58 Open ▸ .

Table 18.58: Comparison of Construction Phase Employment Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of impact, and associated justification, for each socio-economics local study area is set out in Table 18.59 Open ▸ .

Table 18.59: Magnitude of Construction Phase Employment Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Sensitivity of the Receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high – a summary is set out in Table 18.60 Open ▸ .

Table 18.60: Sensitivity of Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities (Including Supply Chain) – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Significance of the Effect

The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area is set out in Table 18.61 Open ▸ .

Table 18.61: Significance of Construction Phase Employment Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Alternative Procurement Scenarios

The core assessment set out above has been undertaken on the Baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken to the Enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial effects are greater.
The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on access to employment amongst local residents in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Enhanced procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.62 Open ▸ .

Table 18.62: Potential Impacts (Enhanced Procurement Scenario) of the Proposed Development on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of BVG Associates (2021). Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Under the Enhanced scenario, there is some increase in the employment access impacts assessed at the Socio-Economics local study area level during construction phase. The quantitative assessment indicates some increases in the magnitude of impacts at this level. However, the changes in GVA impacts are not judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects – no change in significance of effect is assessed at the socio-economics local study area level.
Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the Socio-Economics local study area level the significance of effects assessed remain unchanged from the Baseline scenario as per Table 18.61 Open ▸ above.
There is a substantial increase in the employment impacts assessed under the Enhanced scenario at the socio-economics national study area level during construction phase. The quantitative assessment indicates an increase in the magnitude of impacts at this level. The increase in employment impacts are judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects.
Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics national study area level the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be medium beneficial and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will be of moderate beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

The Applicant has committed to enhancement of beneficial effects as per section 18.9. No secondary mitigation is required.

Operation and Maintenance Phase

Potential expenditure on the following activities associated with the Proposed Development could improve access to employment amongst local residents in activities associated with operation and maintenance supply chain:

wind turbine, balance of plant, and transmission maintenance and servicing; and
vessel and crew activity.
1. The operation and maintenance of the Proposed Development could also go on to support access to employment amongst local residents indirectly in the wider Scottish supply chain.
2. A 35 year operation period has been assumed throughout.
3. The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on access to employment amongst local residents in operation and maintenance activities at the socio-economics local study area level are set out in Table 18.63 Open ▸ .

Table 18.63: Potential Impacts of the Proposed Development on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Operation And Maintenance Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of Impact

Employment impacts have been assessed on the basis of direct, indirect, and induced impacts.
On the basis of a 35 year operation period, the impact is assessed as long term. Due to the ongoing nature operation and maintenance activities, the impact is assessed as continuous.
As discussed in section 18.3, impacts are considered across multiple socio-economics local study areas linked to the selection of operation and maintenance port and harbour facilities, and the associated supply of a range of inputs and services.
A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.64 Open ▸ .

Table 18.64: Comparison of Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Operation and Maintenance Activities vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of impact, and associated justification, for each socio-economics local study area is set out in Table 18.65 Open ▸ .

Table 18.65: Magnitude of Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts on Access go Employment Amongst Local Residents in Operation and Maintenance – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Sensitivity of the Receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high – a summary is set out in Table 18.66 Open ▸ .

Table 18.66: Sensitivity of Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Operation and Maintenance Activities (Including Supply Chain) – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Significance of the Effect

The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area is set out in Table 18.67 Open ▸ .

Table 18.67: Significance of Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents In Operation and Maintenance Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

The Applicant has committed to enhancement of beneficial effects as per section 18.9. No secondary mitigation is required.

Decommissioning Phase

Potential expenditure on decommissioning of wind turbine and balance of plant associated with the Proposed Development could support access to employment amongst local residents in activities associated with decommissioning in the socio-economics local study areas and socio-economics national study area.
The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. It is anticipated that all structures above seabed level will be removed, but subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts.
No plans are in place to consider potential locations for decommissioning support ports. It is not known if this will be located in Scotland. Given the need for large lay down areas the four ports identified as being under consideration for the construction phase would have the greatest potential to accommodate decommissioning activities based on current circumstances.
The Technical Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1) notes that the workforce for the decommissioning of the offshore parts of the wind farm is likely to be supported in a similar way to installation and commissioning. However, the scale of activity will be reduced given the intention to leave cables in situ.
On this basis the magnitude of effects would be lower than those set out for the construction phase under the baseline and enhanced scenarios.
The significance of effects assessed at construction phase for access to employment amongst local residents in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities are set out in Table 18.61 Open ▸ . On the basis of currently available evidence the significance of effects for the decommissioning phase will be no greater than minor beneficial significance across socio-economics local study areas and the socio-economics national study area. This is not significant in EIA terms. Invergordon socio-economics local study area is the single exception, where the significance of effects for the decommissioning phase will be no greater than moderate beneficial significance. This is not significant in EIA terms.

Impact on the Demand for Housing, Accommodation and Local Services

The potential for demand will arise through the temporary, medium term or permanent relocation of workers into socio-economics and tourism study areas.
Temporary is defined for this assessment as a period generally measured in nights that would typically be accommodated within a hotel, hostel, guesthouse or bed and breakfast type environment. The worker would be expected to travel alone without family.
Medium term is defined as a period generally measured in months that would typically be accommodated within rented accommodation. The worker would typically be expected to travel alone without family.
Long term or permanent relocation is defined as a period generally measured in years that would result in the worker relocating to the relevant area with a long term housing solution alongside their family.
This impact is applicable to the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases. The assessment draws on the assessment of employment impacts and discussion of workforce issues as set out in the supporting Technical Report in volume 3, appendix 18.1.

Magnitude – Assessment Approach

The magnitude of impacts is assessed against the following baseline conditions:

Potential permanent relocations:

– total population (2019): comparison with total population to give an indication of the scale of the impact of labour migration on the resident population;

– total dwellings stock (2019): comparison with overall dwellings stock to give an indication of the scale of the impact of labour migration on the housing market; and

– total unoccupied dwellings stock (2019): comparison with unoccupied dwellings stock to give an indication of the scale of the impact of labour migration on the housing market.

Potential medium term relocations:

– total population (2019): comparison with total population to give an indication of the scale of the impact of labour migration on the resident population; and

– total private rented sector (2018): comparison with the scale of the private rented to sector to assess potential effects on local housing market.

Potential temporary overnight stays:

– total number of overnight stays (2019): comparison with total number of overnight stays (in nights per annum) to provide indication of scale relative to existing market; and

– temporary accommodation capacity (2019): comparison with overnight accommodation capacity to give an indication of the scale of impact of demand from temporary workers.

Table 18.68: Magnitude of Impacts on the Demand for Housing, Accommodation and Local Services Assessment Criteria

Sensitivity – Assessment Approach

Sensitivity of employment impacts is assessed against the following baseline conditions:

policy environment: whether relevant policy environment has the aim of protecting and strengthening local services and the housing market;
stakeholder comments on previous experience of impacts arising from effects of contractor workforce; and
scale of change of receiving environment in recent history.

Construction Phase

Potential expenditure on activities associated with the construction phase of the Proposed Development could support temporary or medium term labour migration into socio-economics local study areas.
A maximum 96 month construction period has been assumed throughout. Although not all impacts will occur for the entire duration of the construction period. Any variation is described and aligns to the anticipated construction programme.
Under the baseline scenario it is assumed that procurement decisions are taken in line with current competitiveness of the Scottish offshore wind sector. Employment related to the balance of plant manufacturing and fabrication is assumed to draw on the standing workforces of existing enterprises. This will not have any impact on the demand for housing, accommodation, and local services above current baseline activity.
As set out in the Technical Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1), there will be a range of installation and commissioning roles filled by mobile workers, as is typical of all offshore wind projects. Within the baseline scenario these roles will be largely offshore with workers accommodated within SOVs. However, these workers have the potential to give rise to demand for temporary accommodation at the start and end of typical two week shift periods at sea.
The potential demand for temporary accommodation, as measured in nights per annum, arising from the Proposed Development are set out in Table 18.69 Open ▸ . The maximum estimated number of overnight stays per annum is calculated based on the following assumptions:

maximum activities within a single Socio-Economics local study area;
maximum vessel numbers;
vessel crew size (including technician and marine crew);
shift arrangements (assumed two week on/off shift pattern);
shifts per annum (based on construction programme);
nights of accommodation required per shift (assumed maximum two nights per shift, including one night before and one night after shift period before travelling to home location); and
it is assumed that a minimum of one third of workers would not require local overnight accommodation.
1. Under the baseline scenario the main construction staging port is located outside Scotland. However, other installation and commissioning activities could be located at the ports under consideration. The maximum impact associated with any single port derives from inter-array cable installation. Further impact will be created across the rest of Scotland associated with other installation and commissioning activities.
2. There is no anticipated medium term relocation of workers into any of the socio-economics and tourism study local areas or the socio-economics national study area.
3. No permanent relocation of workers into any of the socio-economics and tourism study areas is anticipated under any of the scenarios during the construction phase.

Table 18.69: Potential Maximum Demand for Temporary Accommodation, Baseline Scenario – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of Impact

Following a review of the anticipated construction programme the period of maximum temporary accommodation requirement will extend across four to five years. This is assessed as long term.
As discussed in section 18.3, impacts are considered across multiple socio-economics local study areas linked to the selection of construction ports, and the associated supply of a range of inputs and services.
The assessment is based on the maximum potential effects as set out at Table 18.31 Open ▸ . Impact compared to accommodation capacity is estimated based on average unutilised hotel room occupancy. This is a proxy indicator. As per Table 18.70 Open ▸ , there is substantial unutilised capacity across a variety of accommodation types.
Impacts are assessed as beneficial, creating demand for temporary accommodation within identified levels of available capacity in each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area.

Table 18.70: Magnitude of Temporary Accommodation Demand, Baseline Scenario – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of impact, relative to the baseline for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.71.

Table 18.72: Magnitude of Temporary Accommodation Demand, Baseline Scenario – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Sensitivity of the Receptor

The temporary accommodation sector forms part of the wider tourism sector which is a policy priority across each socio-economics local study area and the national socio-economics study area.
Occupancy rates of temporary accommodation are subject to substantial variations on an annual basis. Normal fluctuation is substantially greater than the assessed scale of impact.
There is excess capacity within the temporary accommodation sector based on annual average and peak month (minimum 10%) occupancy data.
Multiple stakeholders indicated that there had been no adverse impacts as a result of previous similar projects with temporary contractor workforces requiring short term accommodation.
The sensitivity of impact and associated justification for each socio-economics local study area and the national socio-economics study area is set out in Table 18.72 Open ▸ .

Table 18.73: Sensitivity of Demand for Housing, Accommodation, and Local Services – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Significance of the Effect

The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area and the national socio-economics study area is set out in Table 18.73 Open ▸ .

Table 18.74: Significance of Construction Phase Employment Impacts on Demand for Housing, Accommodation, and Local Services – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

No socio-economics and tourism mitigation is considered necessary because the predicted impact in the absence of mitigation is not significant in EIA terms.

Alternative Scenarios

The core assessment set out above has been undertaken on the baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken to the enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial effects are greater.
Capturing additional balance of plant manufacturing and fabrication activities is predicated on new investments such as the Nigg Offshore Wind factory and XLCC cable factories at Hunterston. If contracts are placed with ports such as these, this will support/safeguard employment for their workforces that would be expected to be permanently resident in the labour market catchment area of the ports.
Under the enhanced scenario a Scottish port is selected as the primary construction staging port. This will have impacts on both temporary and medium term accommodation and housing within the socio-economics local study area of the selected port in addition to the impacts assessed under the baseline scenario.
The use of a Scottish construction port will include an estimated maximum 200 workers based on land, requiring accommodation in the vicinity of the selected port, as well as additional temporary demand associated with the shift patterns of wind turbine installation and commissioning and marine crew working offshore. The estimated impact is summarised in Table 18.74 Open ▸ .
There will also be additional temporary demand for accommodation in the rest of Scotland as a result of further additional installation and commissioning activities being located within the country, but not at the primary construction staging port.

Table 18.75: Potential Maximum Demand for Temporary Accommodation, Enhanced Scenario – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Assessment of temporary overnight accommodation impacts is undertaken on the same basis as for the baseline scenario.
It is assumed medium term accommodation and housing needs will be primarily met through the private rented sector. Based on the construction programme demand for accommodation is likely to be across two periods, the first of 18 to 20 months, the second of 12 to 14 months. It is estimated that workers will either rent or be provided with accommodation arranged by their employer in small groups. A maximum of 50 dwellings within the relevant socio-economics local study area is therefore used for the assessment.

Table 18.76: Magnitude of Temporary and Medium Term Accommodation and Housing Demand, Enhanced Scenario – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The assessment of magnitude is set out in Table 18.76 Open ▸ .

Table 18.77: Magnitude of Temporary Accommodation Demand, Baseline Scenario – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The sensitivity of the receptor is unchanged. Table 18.77 Open ▸ sets out the revised assessment of significance under the enhanced scenario.

Table 18.78: Significance of Construction Phase Employment Impacts on Demand for Housing, Accommodation, and Local Services – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Operation and Maintenance Phase

Potential expenditure on activities associated with the operation and maintenance phase of the Proposed Development could support labour migration into socio-economics local study areas.
A 35 year operations and maintenance period has been assumed throughout.
Under each of the scenarios it is assumed that a Scottish port is utilised as a main operations and maintenance base. Some activity will be supported in other locations in Scotland, which could potentially be another of the ports under consideration. However, the scale of any such impact will be lower than if selected as the main port and assessment has been made on the maximum potential impact.
As set out in the Technical Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1), theoretically this workforce could live anywhere and travel to the wind farm for two weekly shifts. However, given the long term continuity of the maintenance work there is a high likelihood the workforce will live locally, within the socio-economics local study area identified relevant to each facility under consideration.
The Proposed Development will create new roles within operation and maintenance activities. These roles could be filled through a number of routes including:

local or Scottish workers transitioning from the Oil and Gas or other relevant sectors;
new entrants to the sector resulting from existing and planned training activities; and
relocations of skilled workers to the selected locality.
1. With a lead time of at least five years before commencement of operations there is time to train a local workforce, with a range of skills and training programmes already in place across Scotland to support potential growth in the offshore wind sector workforce.
2. For the purposes of assessment it is assumed a maximum of 50% of the workforce is recruited from outside the relevant socio-economics local study area. As such relocations will be long term or permanent – it is assumed that any migrating workers would also relocate their families. The assessment of population impact assumes average household size of 2.14 persons (2020, Estimates of Households and Dwellings, National Records of Scotland).
3. Table 18.78 Open ▸ sets out the scale of employment associated with the operation and maintenance phase under the baseline scenario. It is assumed jobs are net additional as the Proposed Development adds to the requirement for operation and maintenance workforce above existing baseline.
4. Other periodic operation and maintenance tasks may require temporary overnight accommodation for crew immediately before and after commencing works offshore. This is estimated at less than 500 nights per annum which is so negligible relative to the scale of existing overnight stays in any of the socio-economics and tourism study areas as to not warrant further consideration.

Table 18.79: Potential Itinerant Employment Impacts (Baseline UK Supply Scenario) of the Proposed Development on Demand for Housing, Accommodation And Local Services – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of Impact

On the basis of a 35 year operations and maintenance period, the impact is assessed as long term. Due to the ongoing rolling programme of the majority of operation and maintenance activity the impact is assessed as continuous.
As discussed in section 18.3, impacts are considered across multiple socio-economics local study areas linked to the selection of operation and maintenance port and harbour facilities, and the associated supply of a range of inputs and services.
Growing the working age population of Scotland through attracting migrant labour is a policy aim of the Scottish Government. As such, the impact is assessed as beneficial.
The magnitude of impact, and associated justification, for each socio-economics local study area and the national socio-economics study area is set out in Table 18.79 Open ▸ and Table 18.80 Open ▸ .

Table 18.80: Magnitude of Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts on Demand for Housing, Accommodation, and Local Services – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Table 18.81: Magnitude of Operational and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts on Demand for Housing, Accommodation, and Local Services – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Sensitivity of the Receptor

The housing market in each socio-economics local study area has delivered additional dwellings in recent years, with plans for additional housing to meet planned population and economic growth including targeted growth of the offshore wind sector. The receptor is deemed to have a high degree of recoverability.
Growing the working age population and attracting migrant labour, as well as delivering additional housing is a policy ambition across local and national socio economics study areas.
The sensitivity of impact and associated justification for each socio-economics local study area and the national socio-economics study area is set out in Table 18.81 Open ▸ .

Table 18.82: Sensitivity of Demand for Housing, Accommodation and Local Services – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Significance of the Effect

The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area is set out in Table 18.82 Open ▸ .

Table 18.83: Significance of Operational and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts on Demand for Housing, Accommodation and Local Services – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

No socio-economics and tourism mitigation is considered necessary because the predicted impact in the absence of mitigation is not significant in EIA terms.

Decommissioning Phase

Potential expenditure on decommissioning of wind turbine and balance of plant associated with the Proposed Development could support temporary or medium term labour migration into socio-economics local study areas and the socio-economics national study area.
The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. It is anticipated that all structures above seabed level will be removed, but subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts.
No plans are in place to consider potential locations for decommissioning support ports. It is not known if this will be located in Scotland. Given the need for large lay down areas the four ports identified as being under consideration for the construction phase would have the greatest potential to accommodate decommissioning activities based on current circumstances.
The Technical Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1) notes that the workforce for the decommissioning of the offshore parts of the wind farm is likely to be sourced in a similar way to installation and commissioning. However, the scale of activity will be reduced given the intention to leave cables in situ.
On this basis the magnitude of effects would be lower than those set out for the construction phase under the baseline and enhanced scenarios.
The significance of effects assessed at construction phase for accommodation, housing and local services are set out at Table 18.73 Open ▸ . On the basis of currently available evidence the significance of effects for the decommissioning phase will be no greater than minor beneficial significance across socio-economics local study areas and the socio-economics national study area. This is not significant in EIA terms.

Impact on Tourism and Recreation Activity and Associated Economic Value

The Proposed Development has the potential to cause both beneficial and adverse impacts on tourism and recreational activity and associated economic value.
This impact is applicable to the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases.

Tourism and Recreation Related Receptors

In assessing any potential adverse effects upon tourism and recreation activity the following receptors have been considered:

accommodation, housing, and local services.
seascape, landscape and visual impact (via review of volume 2, chapter 15);
infrastructure and other users (via review of volume 2, chapter 17); and
shipping and navigation (via review of volume 2, chapter 13).

Accommodation, Housing and Local Services

The analysis of effects on accommodation, housing and local services set out above identified minor beneficial effects on temporary (overnight) accommodation during the construction phase, negligible scale of impacts on temporary (overnight) accommodation during the operation and maintenance phase and no greater than minor beneficial effects on temporary (overnight) accommodation during the decommissioning phase.
On the basis of this review there are no likely significant tourism effects that warrant consideration.

Seascape and Visual Impact

Volume 2, chapter 15 considers effects on near shore recreational receptors through visual amenity.
As per volume 2, chapter 15 (section 15.11) the effects arising as a result of the construction and decommissioning phases of the Proposed Development are assessed as being of the same or lower magnitude and significance on all visual receptors and viewpoints as those arising due to the operation and maintenance phase. However, the residual effects are assessed as being short-term and temporary, occurring during the length of the construction and decommissioning phase, and differing in nature from the operational effects mainly due the influence of the various construction vessels in the seascape, including cable laying vessels closer to shore within the export cable array area corridor, that will not be present or result in effects during the operation and maintenance phase. During the majority of the construction and decommissioning phases the magnitude of change and effects on visual receptors/views will be less than during the operation and maintenance phase, while the wind turbines are not fully constructed. Therefore, a single assessment of seascape and visual impacts during the operation and maintenance phase within the context of tourism receptors is presented to cover all three phases.
As per volume 2, chapter 15 (section 15.11) a summary of the significance of effects assessed at each visual receptor relevant to the tourism local study areas is summarised below (daytime only unless otherwise stated).

Table 18.84: Significance of Effects of the Proposed Development during Operation and Maintenance on Representative Viewpoints

As per volume 2, chapter 15 (section 15.11) a summary of the significance of effects on seascape (coastal) character assessed at each Coastal Character Area relevant to the tourism local study area is summarised below (daytime only unless otherwise stated).

Table 18.85: Significance of Effects (Daytime) on Seascape (Coastal) Character – Summary

Source: Volume 2, chapter 15, section 15.11.

Effects on transport routes are screened out as these are not deemed to be tourism assets.
The number of visual receptors and Coastal Character Areas where effects are assessed to be significant in EIA terms is limited. The baseline tourism conditions set out for each impacted local authority in section 18.7.6 indicate that the tourism local study area has a wide and varied tourism sector encompassing many attractions above and beyond the limited, specific locations subject to potential visual impacts. Therefore, the role these specific locations play in the tourism industry of the tourism local study area can be considered as negligible. Overall, the significance of visual impacts at the tourism local study area level is assessed as negligible, which is not significant in EIA terms.
Research in 2008 on the economic impacts of wind farms on Scottish tourism found that whilst there is typically a preference among visitors for landscapes without wind farms, offshore wind farms have had negligible and, in some cases, beneficial effects on the tourism industry. The research quotes a study carried out to identify whether a recent experience of a wind farm had altered the likelihood of a visitor returning to Scotland. The study found that 99% of visitors who had seen a wind farm suggested that the experience did not have any effect. Additionally, the research quotes an internet survey which found that few very large farms concentrated in one area have less of an impact on tourism than many small farms spread across the country. To conclude on the various studies undertaken, the report finds that whilst wind farms have an adverse impact on GVA and employment in the tourism industry, the impact is very small.

Infrastructure and Other Users

Volume 2, chapter 17 considers effects on a range of recreational receptors including fishing, sailing and motor cruising, kite surfing, windsurfing, sea/surf kayaking, canoeing, beach users and diving.
In all cases, the magnitude of effects is assessed as low, significance minor, and no secondary mitigation required. The significance of effects is assessed as below the threshold of EIA significance in all cases.
On the basis of the chapter review, there are no significant effects identified in respect to Infrastructure and other users and therefore there are not any likely significant tourism effects that warrant further consideration.

Shipping and Navigation

Volume 2, chapter 13 considers navigational safety and risk for all vessels including recreational vessels, as well as restrictions to port activities and users.
The assessment of effects associated with the Proposed Development is in all cases deemed to be broadly acceptable or tolerable, which are not significant in EIA terms.
The infrastructure and other users EIA chapter finds no issue with the ability of recreational sailing, boating and motor cruising users from undertaking normal activity. The shipping and navigation assessment finds that such users may be discouraged from navigating in and around the identified navigation corridor given the potential presence of commercial traffic, which may be compounded by the overall reduction in sea room for small craft to navigate within the outer Firth of Forth. This impact would be relevant to construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning phases. However, when subject to further mitigation the assessment finds the significance of any adverse effect is tolerable, which is not significant in EIA terms.
On the basis of the chapter review there are no likely significant tourism effects that warrant consideration.

Construction Phase

A maximum 96 month construction period has been assumed throughout.

Magnitude of Impact

On the basis of a maximum 96 month construction period, the impact is assessed as long term.
Analysis of the topics set out above has found there are no direct or indirect tourism and recreation impacts of significance in EIA terms during construction phase. The magnitude of any adverse tourism effects is therefore assessed as negligible.

Sensitivity of the Receptor

Protecting and growing the tourism sector including marine tourism is a policy objective at local and national levels. The sensitivity of the receptor is therefore considered to be high.

Significance of the Effect

Overall, the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will, therefore, be of minor adverse significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

No tourism and recreation mitigation is considered necessary because the likely effect in the absence of further mitigation (beyond the designed in measures outlined in volume 2, chapter 13, section 13.10) is not significant in EIA terms.

Operation and Maintenance Phase

Magnitude of Impact

On the basis of a 35 year operation and maintenance period, the impact is assessed as long term.
Analysis of the topics set out above has found there are no direct or indirect tourism and recreation impacts of significance in EIA terms during construction phase. The magnitude of any adverse tourism effects is therefore assessed as negligible.

Sensitivity of the Receptor

Protecting and growing the tourism sector including marine tourism is a policy objective at local and national levels. The sensitivity of the receptor is therefore considered to be high.

Significance of the Effect

Overall, the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will, therefore, be of minor adverse significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

No tourism and recreation mitigation is considered necessary because the likely effect in the absence of further mitigation (beyond the designed in measures outlined in volume 2, chapter 13, section 13.10) is not significant in EIA terms.

Decommissioning Phase

The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. It is anticipated that all structures above seabed level will be removed, but subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts.
No plans are in place to consider potential locations for decommissioning support ports. It is not known if this will be located in Scotland. Given the need for large lay down areas the four ports identified as being under consideration for the construction phase would have the greatest potential to accommodate decommissioning activities based on current circumstances.
On this basis the magnitude of effects would be lower than those set out for the construction phase under the baseline scenario. The maximum assessed significance relating to tourism is therefore negligible.
The assessment is therefore the same as for the construction phase – the significance of the impact is deemed to be of minor adverse significance. This is not significant in EIA terms.

18.12. Cumulative Effects Assessment

18.12.1. Methodology

The CEA assesses the impact associated with the Proposed Development together with other relevant plans, projects and activities. Cumulative effects are therefore the combined effect of the Proposed Development in combination with the effects from a number of different projects, on the same receptor or resource. Please see volume 1, chapter 6 for detail on CEA methodology.
The projects and plans selected as relevant to the CEA presented within this chapter are based upon the results of a screening exercise (see volume 3, appendix 6.4 of the Offshore EIA Report). Volume 3, appendix 6.4 further provides information regarding how information pertaining to other plans and projects is gained and applied to the assessment Each project or plan has been considered on a case by case basis for screening in or out of this chapter's assessment based upon data confidence, effect-receptor pathways and the spatial/temporal scales involved.
In undertaking the CEA for the Proposed Development, it is important to bear in mind that other projects and plans under consideration will have differing potential for proceeding to an operational stage and hence a differing potential to ultimately contribute to a cumulative impact alongside the Proposed Development. Therefore, a tiered approach has be adopted. This provides a framework for placing relative weight upon the potential for each project/plan to be included in the CEA to ultimately be realised, based upon the project/plan’s current stage of maturity and certainty in the projects’ parameters. The tiered approach which will be utilised within the Proposed Development CEA employs the following tiers:

tier 1 assessment – Proposed Development (Berwick Bank Wind Farm offshore) with Berwick Bank Wind Farm onshore;
tier 2 assessment – All plans/projects assessed under Tier 1, plus projects which became operational since baseline characterisation, those under construction, those with consent and submitted but not yet determined;
tier 3 assessment – All plans/projects assessed under Tier 2, plus those projects with a Scoping Report; and
tier 4 assessment – All plans/projects assessed under Tier 3, which are reasonably foreseeable, plus those projects likely to come forward where an Agreement for Lease has been granted.
1. The specific projects scoped into the CEA for socio-economics and tourism, are outlined in Table 18.85 Open ▸ . The screening of projects to be considered as part of the CEA has taken into account location (to determine whether there is realistic prospect of overlap with the study areas considered as part of this assessment, taking account of available evidence for schemes) and timing (to determine whether there is realistic prospect of overlap with the construction phase). Any offshore wind farms already within the operation and maintenance phase are assumed to form part of the existing baseline.
2. The range of potential cumulative impacts that are identified and included in Table 18.87 Open ▸ below, is a subset of those considered for the Proposed Development alone. This is because some of the potential impacts identified and assessed for the Proposed Development alone, are localised and temporary in nature. It is considered therefore, that these potential impacts have limited or no potential to interact with similar changes associated with other plans or projects. These have therefore not been taken forward for detailed assessment.
3. Similarly, some of the potential impacts considered within the Proposed Development alone assessment are specific to a particular phase of development (e.g. construction, operation and maintenance or decommissioning). Where the potential for cumulative effects with other plans or projects only have potential to occur where there is spatial or temporal overlap with the Proposed Development during certain phases of development, impacts associated with a certain phase may be omitted from further consideration where no plans or projects have been identified that have the potential for cumulative effects during this period.
4. As described in volume 1, chapter 3, the Applicant is developing an additional export cable grid connection to Blyth, Northumberland (the Cambois connection). Applications for necessary consents (including marine licenses) will be applied for separately. The CEA for the Cambois connection is based on information presented in the Cambois connection Scoping Report (SSER, 2022e), submitted in October 2022. The Cambois connection has been screened into the CEA for offshore socioeconomics and tourism receptors.

Table 18.86: List of Developments Considered Within the CEA for Socio-Economics and Tourism

Maximum Design Scenario

The maximum design scenarios identified have been selected as those having the potential to result in the greatest effect on an identified receptor or receptor group. The cumulative effects presented and assessed in this section have been selected from the details provided in volume 1, chapter 3 of the Offshore EIA Report as well as the information available on other projects and plans (see volume 3, appendix 6.4), to inform a ‘maximum design scenario’. Effects of greater adverse significance are not predicted to arise should any other development scenario, based on details within the Project Design Envelope (e.g. different wind turbine layout), to that assessed here, be taken forward in the final design scheme.
Table 18.86 Open ▸ sets out which socio-economics local study areas are included in the maximum design scenario based on impact, phase, and data availability.

Table 18.87: Consideration of Cumulative Projects Based on Socio-Economics Local Study Area, Impact, and Phase

Key
Baseline scenario screened into maximum design scenario
Baseline and Enhanced scenarios screened into maximum design scenario
Insufficient data to include in maximum design scenario
Screened out of maximum design scenario

As per 18.3.3, potential impacts of the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning of the Proposed Development on tourism and recreation are indirect in nature. As per 18.3.3. it is necessary to derive an assessment of significance of cumulative effects on tourism and recreation from the findings elsewhere in the Offshore EIA Report, namely:

accommodation, housing, and local services.
seascape, landscape and visual impact (via review of volume 2, chapter 15);
infrastructure and other users (via review of volume 2, chapter 17); and
shipping and navigation (via review of volume 2, chapter 13).

Table 18.88: Maximum Design Scenario Considered for Each Impact as Part the Assessment of Likely Significant Cumulative Effects on Socio-Economics and Tourism

18.12.2. Cumulative Effects Assessment

An assessment of the likely significance of the cumulative effects of the Proposed Development upon socio-economic and tourism receptors arising from each identified impact is given below.
Table 18.85 Open ▸ provides project specific details on which socio-economics local study areas will need to be considered throughout the CEA.
Where a project in Tier 2 to 4 has more than one scenario available for consideration, the lower scenario has been incorporated into the Baseline scenario assessment, and the maximum design scenario has been incorporated into the Enhanced scenario assessment.

Impact on Employment in Activities (Including Supply Chain) Associated with: Manufacturing, Construction and Installation; Operation and Maintenance; and Decommissioning

Tier 1

Construction phase

The potential Tier 1 cumulative impacts on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Baseline procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.88 Open ▸ . This will create opportunities to both safeguard existing employment and facilitate new employment.

Table 18.89: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) on Employment in Manufacturing, Construction and Installation Activities – Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of impact

A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.89 Open ▸ .

Table 18.90: Comparison of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of Tier 1 cumulative impacts for the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.90 Open ▸ .

Table 18.91: Magnitude of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts – Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23 Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each Socio-Economics local study area and the Socio-Economics national study area is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

The significance of effect for the socio-economics national study area are set out in Table 18.91 Open ▸ .

Table 18.92: Significance of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) – Socio-Economics National Study Area

Alternative Procurement Scenarios

The assessment set out above has been undertaken on the Baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken to the Enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial effects are greater.
The potential Tier 1 cumulative impacts on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Enhanced procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.92 Open ▸ . An equivalent Enhanced scenario is also available for the Tier 1 project, which has also been adopted here.

Table 18.93: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts (Enhanced Procurement Scenario) on Employment in Manufacturing, Construction and Installation Activities – Socio-Economics National Study Area

There is a substantial increase in the Tier 1 cumulative impacts assessed during the construction phase under the Enhanced scenario at the socio-economics national study area level. The increase in employment impacts is judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects.
Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics national study area level the magnitude of the Tier 1 cumulative impact is deemed to be high beneficial and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will be of major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Operation and maintenance phase

The potential Tier 1 cumulative impacts on employment in operation and maintenance activities at the socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area level are set out in Table 18.93 Open ▸ . This will create opportunities to both safeguard existing employment and facilitate new employment.

Table 18.94: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts on Employment in Operation and Maintenance Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of impact

A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.94 Open ▸ .

Table 18.95: Comparison of Tier 1 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of impact for each socio-economics local study area(s) and socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.95 Open ▸ .

Table 18.96: Magnitude of Tier 1 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23 Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics and tourism and national study area is set out in Table 18.96 Open ▸ .

Table 18.97: Significance of Tier 1 Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Decommissioning phase

Potential expenditure on decommissioning of Tier 1 project(s) could support employment in activities associated with decommissioning in the socio-economics local study areas and socio-economics national study area.
The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. It is currently anticipated that offshore infrastructure would be retained and repurposed, subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts.
On this basis the magnitude of effects is expected to be significantly lower than those set out for the construction phase under the baseline and enhanced scenarios.
The significance of Tier 1 cumulative effects assessed at construction phase for employment in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities are set out in Table 18.91 Open ▸ . On the basis of currently available evidence, it is concluded that the significance of effects for the decommissioning phase will be no greater than moderate beneficial across socio-economics local study areas and the socio-economics national study area. This is significant in EIA terms.

Tiers 2 to 4

Construction phase

The potential Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Baseline procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.97 Open ▸ . This will create opportunities to both safeguard existing employment and facilitate new employment.

Table 18.98: Potential Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) on Employment in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of impact

A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.98 Open ▸ .

Table 18.99: Comparison of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts for the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.99 Open ▸ . The share of offshore wind sector employment within the socio-economics local study areas is inferred based on the nationally available data.

Table 18.100: Magnitude of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23 Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

The significance of effect for the socio-economics local study area(s) and socio-economics national study area are set out in Table 18.100 Open ▸ .

Table 18.101: Significance of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Alternative Procurement Scenarios

The assessment set out above has been undertaken on the Baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken to the Enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial effects are predicted to be greater.
The potential Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Enhanced procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.101 Open ▸ . Equivalent ‘enhanced’ scenarios have also been adopted here, depending on availability by Tiers 2 to 4 projects.

Table 18.102: Potential Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Impacts (Enhanced Procurement Scenario) on Employment in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of: Moray West Offshore Windfarm, 2018; and NorthConnect High Voltage Direct Current Cable Infrastructure, 2018

Under the Enhanced scenario, there is some increase in the employment impacts assessed at the socio-economics local study area level during construction phase. The quantitative assessment indicates some increase in the magnitude of impacts at this level. However, the change in employment impacts is not judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects – no change in significance of effect is assessed at this local study area level.
Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics local study area level the significance of effects assessed remain unchanged from the Baseline scenario as per Table 18.100 Open ▸ above.
There is a substantial increase in the Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts assessed during the construction phase under the Enhanced scenario at the socio-economics national study area level. This increases the assessed magnitude of impacts. The increase in employment impacts is judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects.
Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics national study area level the magnitude of the Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impact is deemed to be high beneficial and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will be of major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Operation and maintenance phase

The potential Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts on employment in operation and maintenance activities at the socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area level are set out in Table 18.102 Open ▸ . This will create opportunities to both safeguard existing employment and facilitate new employment.

Table 18.103: Potential Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Impacts on Employment in Operation and Maintenance Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of: Moray West Offshore Windfarm, 2018; and NorthConnect High Voltage Direct Current Cable Infrastructure, 2018

Magnitude of impact

A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.103 Open ▸ .

Table 18.104: Comparison of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of impact for each socio-economics local study area(s) and socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.104 Open ▸ .

Table 18.105: Magnitude of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23 Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics and tourism and national study area is set out in Table 18.105 Open ▸ .

Table 18.106: Significance of Tiers 2 to 4 Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Decommissioning phase

Potential expenditure on decommissioning activities associated with Tiers 2 to 4 projects could support employment in activities associated with decommissioning in the relevant socio-economics local study areas and socio-economics national study area.
The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known.
On this basis the magnitude of effects is assessed as lower than those set out for the construction phase under the baseline and enhanced scenarios.
The significance of effects assessed at construction phase for employment in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities are set out in Table 18.100 Open ▸ . On the basis of currently available evidence the significance of effects for the decommissioning phase will be no greater than moderate beneficial across socio-economics local study areas and the socio-economics national study area. This is significant in EIA terms.

Impact on GVA (£) Supported in Activities (Including Supply Chain) Associated with: Manufacturing, Construction and Installation; Operation and Maintenance; and Decommissioning

Tier 1

Construction phase

The potential Tier 1 cumulative impacts on GVA in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Baseline procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.106 Open ▸ .

Table 18.107: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) on GVA in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of impact

A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.107 Open ▸ .

Table 18.108: Comparison of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase GVA Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of Tier 1 cumulative impacts for the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.108 Open ▸ . The share of offshore wind sector GVA within the local study areas is inferred based on the nationally available data.

Table 18.109: Magnitude of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase GVA Impacts – Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23 Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

The significance of effect for the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.109 Open ▸ .

Table 18.110: Significance of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase GVA Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) – Socio-Economics National Study Area

Alternative Procurement Scenarios

The assessment set out above has been undertaken on the Baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken to the Enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial effects are predicted to be greater.
The potential Tier 1 cumulative impacts on GVA in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Enhanced procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.110 Open ▸ . An equivalent Enhanced scenario is also available for the Tier 1 project, which has also been adopted here.

Table 18.111: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts (Enhanced Procurement Scenario) on GVA in Manufacturing, Construction and Installation Activities – Socio-Economics National Study Area

There is a substantial increase in the Tier 1 cumulative impacts assessed during the construction phase under the Enhanced scenario at the socio-economics national study area level. The increase in GVA impacts is substantial enough to bring about an increase in the assessed significance of effects.
Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics national study area level the magnitude of the Tier 1 cumulative impact is deemed to be high beneficial and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will be of major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Operation and maintenance phase

The potential Tier 1 cumulative impacts on GVA in operation and maintenance activities at the socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area level are set out in Table 18.111 Open ▸ .

Table 18.112: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts on GVA in Operation and Maintenance Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of impact

A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.112 Open ▸ .

Table 18.113: Comparison of Tier 1 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase GVA Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of impact, and associated justification, for each socio-economics local study area(s) and socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.113 Open ▸ .

Table 18.114: Magnitude of Tier 1 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase GVA Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23 Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics and tourism and national study area is set out in Table 18.114 Open ▸ .

Table 18.115: Significance of Tier 1 Operation and Maintenance Phase GVA Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Decommissioning phase

Potential expenditure on decommissioning of Tier 1 project(s) could support GVA in activities associated with decommissioning in the socio-economics local study areas and socio-economics national study area.
The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. It is currently anticipated that offshore infrastructure would be retained and repurposed, subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts.
On this basis the magnitude of effects is predicted to be significantly lower than those set out for the construction phase under the baseline and enhanced scenarios.
The significance of Tier 1 cumulative effects assessed at construction phase for GVA in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities are set out in Table 18.109 Open ▸ . On the basis of currently available evidence the significance of effects for the decommissioning phase is predicted to be no greater than moderate beneficial significance across socio-economics local study areas and the socio-economics national study area. This is significant in EIA terms.

Tiers 2 to 4

Construction phase

The potential Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts on GVA in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Baseline procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.115 Open ▸ .

Table 18.116: Potential Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) on GVA in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of impact

A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.116 Open ▸ .

Table 18.117: Comparison of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Construction Phase GVA Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts for the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.117 Open ▸ . The share of offshore wind sector GVA within the socio-economics local study areas is inferred based on the nationally available data.

Table 18.118: Magnitude of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Construction Phase GVA Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23 Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

The significance of effect for the socio-economics local study area(s) and socio-economics national study area are set out in Table 18.118 Open ▸ .

Table 18.119: Significance of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Construction Phase GVA Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Alternative Procurement Scenarios

The assessment set out above has been undertaken on the Baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken to the Enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial effects are predicted to be greater.
The potential Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts on GVA in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Enhanced procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.119 Open ▸ . Equivalent ‘enhanced’ scenarios have also been adopted here, depending on availability by Tiers 2 to 4 projects.

Table 18.120: Potential Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Impacts (Enhanced Procurement Scenario) on GVA in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Under the Enhanced scenario, there is some increase in the GVA impacts assessed at the socio-economics local study area level during construction phase. The quantitative assessment indicates some increase in the magnitude of impacts at this level. However, the change in GVA impacts is not judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects – no change in significance of effect is assessed at this local study area level.
There is a substantial increase in the Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts assessed during the construction phase under the Enhanced scenario at the socio-economics national study area level. This increases the assessed magnitude of impacts. The increase in employment impacts is judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects.
Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics national study area level the magnitude of the Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impact is deemed to be high beneficial and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will be of major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Operation and maintenance phase

The potential Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts on GVA in operation and maintenance activities at the socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area level are set out in Table 18.120 Open ▸ .

Table 18.121: Potential Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Impacts on GVA in Operation and Maintenance Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of impact

A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.121 Open ▸ .

Table 18.122: Comparison of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase GVA Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of impact, and associated justification, for each socio-economics local study area(s) and socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.122 Open ▸ .

Table 18.123: Magnitude of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase GVA Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23 Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics and tourism and national study area is set out in Table 18.123 Open ▸ .

Table 18.124: Significance of Tiers 2 to 4 Operation and Maintenance Phase GVA Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Decommissioning phase

Potential expenditure on decommissioning activities associated with Tiers 2 to 4 projects could support GVA in activities associated with decommissioning in the relevant socio-economics local study areas and socio-economics national study area.
The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known.
On this basis the magnitude of effects would be lower than those set out for the construction phase under the baseline and enhanced scenarios.
The significance of effects assessed during the construction phase, for employment in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities, are set out in Table 18.118 Open ▸ . On the basis of currently available evidence the significance of effects for decommissioning phase is predicted to be no greater than moderate beneficial across socio-economics local study areas and the socio-economics national study area. This is significant in EIA terms.

Tier 1

Construction phase

The potential Tier 1 cumulative impacts on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Baseline procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.124 Open ▸ .

Table 18.125: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of impact

A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.125 Open ▸ .

Table 18.126: Comparison of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of Tier 1 cumulative impacts for the Socio-Economics national study area is set out in Table 18.126 Open ▸ . The share of offshore wind sector employment within the local study areas is inferred based on the nationally available data.

Table 18.127: Magnitude of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23 Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

The significance of effect for the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.127 Open ▸ .

Table 18.128: Significance of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – Socio-Economics National Study Area

Alternative Procurement Scenarios

The assessment set out above has been undertaken on the Baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken to the Enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial effects are predicted to be greater.
The potential Tier 1 cumulative impacts on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Enhanced procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.128 Open ▸ . An equivalent Enhanced scenario is also available for the Tier 1 project, which has also been adopted here.

Table 18.129: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts (Enhanced Procurement Scenario) on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – Socio-Economics National Study Area

There is a substantial increase in the Tier 1 cumulative impacts assessed during the construction phase under the Enhanced scenario at the socio-economics national study area level.
Under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics national study area level the magnitude of the Tier 1 cumulative impact is deemed to be medium beneficial and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will be of moderate to major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Operation and maintenance phase

The potential Tier 1 cumulative impacts on employment in operation and maintenance activities at the socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area level are set out in Table 18.129 Open ▸ .

Table 18.130: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Operation And Maintenance Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of impact

A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.130 Open ▸ .

Table 18.131: Comparison of Tier 1 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Operation and Maintenance Activities vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of impact for each socio-economics local study area(s) and socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.131 Open ▸ .

Table 18.132: Magnitude of Tier 1 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Operation and Maintenance – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23 Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics and tourism and national study area is set out in Table 18.132 Open ▸ .

Table 18.133: Significance of Tier 1 Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents In Operation and Maintenance Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Decommissioning phase

Potential expenditure on decommissioning of Tier 1 project(s) could support access to employment amongst local residents in activities associated with decommissioning in the socio-economics local study areas and socio-economics national study area.
The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. It is currently anticipated that offshore infrastructure would be retained and repurposed, subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts.
On this basis the magnitude of effects is predicted to be significantly lower than those set out for the construction phase under the baseline and enhanced scenarios.
The significance of Tier 1 cumulative effects assessed at construction phase for access to employment amongst local residents in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities are set out in Table 18.127 Open ▸ . On the basis of currently available evidence the significance of effects for the decommissioning phase will be no greater than minor beneficial across socio-economics local study areas and the socio-economics national study area. This is not significant in EIA terms.

Tiers 2 to 4

Construction phase

The potential Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Baseline procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.133 Open ▸ .

Table 18.134: Potential Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of: Moray West Offshore Windfarm, 2018; and NorthConnect High Voltage Direct Current Cable Infrastructure, 2018

Magnitude of impact

A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.134 Open ▸ .

Table 18.135: Comparison of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts for the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.135 Open ▸ . The share of offshore wind sector employment within the socio-economics local study areas is inferred based on the nationally available data.

Table 18.136: Magnitude of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23 Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

The significance of effect for the socio-economics local study area(s) and socio-economics national study area are set out in Table 18.136 Open ▸ .

Table 18.137: Significance of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Alternative Procurement Scenarios

The assessment set out above has been undertaken on the Baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken to the Enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial effects are predicted to be greater.
The potential Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Enhanced procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.137 Open ▸ . Equivalent ‘enhanced’ scenarios have also been adopted here, depending on availability by Tiers 2 to 4 projects.

Table 18.138: Potential Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Impacts (Enhanced Procurement Scenario) on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of: Moray West Offshore Windfarm, 2018; and NorthConnect High Voltage Direct Current Cable Infrastructure, 2018

Under the Enhanced scenario, there is some increase in the employment impacts assessed at the Socio-Economics local study area level during construction phase. The quantitative assessment indicates no change in the magnitude of impacts at this level.
Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics local study area level the significance of effects assessed remain unchanged from the Baseline scenario as per Table 18.136 Open ▸ .
There is a substantial increase in the Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts assessed during the construction phase under the Enhanced scenario at the socio-economics national study area level. This increases the assessed magnitude of impacts. The increase in employment impacts is judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects.
Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics national study area level the magnitude of the Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impact is deemed to be medium (beneficial) and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will be of moderate to major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Operation and maintenance phase

The potential Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts on employment in operation and maintenance activities at the socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area level are set out in Table 18.138 Open ▸ .

Table 18.139: Potential Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Operation And Maintenance Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of: Moray West Offshore Windfarm, 2018; and NorthConnect High Voltage Direct Current Cable Infrastructure, 2018

Magnitude of impact

A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.139 Open ▸ .

Table 18.140: Comparison of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents in Operation and Maintenance Activities vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions– by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of impact for each socio-economics local study area(s) and socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.140 Open ▸ .

Table 18.141: Magnitude of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents In Operation and Maintenance Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23 Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics and tourism and national study area is set out in Table 18.141 Open ▸ .

Table 18.142: Significance of Tiers 2 to 4 Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts on Access to Employment Amongst Local Residents In Operation and Maintenance Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Decommissioning phase

Potential expenditure on decommissioning activities associated with Tiers 2 to 4 projects could support access to employment amongst local residents in activities associated with decommissioning in the relevant socio-economics local study areas and socio-economics national study area.
The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known.
On this basis the magnitude of effects would be lower than those set out for the construction phase under the baseline and enhanced scenarios.
The significance of effects assessed at construction phase for access to employment amongst local residents in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities are set out in Table 18.136 Open ▸ . On the basis of currently available evidence the significance of effects for the decommissioning phase will be no greater than moderate beneficial across socio-economics local study areas and the socio-economics national study area. This is significant in EIA terms.

Impact on the Demand for Housing, Accommodation and Local Services

Tier 1

Construction phase

Within the construction phase there is no cumulative effect on the relevant socio-economics local study areas, with the offshore support facility locations separate to the onshore socio-economics local study area. There are therefore no socio-economics local study area cumulative effects on the demand for housing, accommodation and local services within Tier 1 beyond those identified for the offshore and onshore elements in their own right.
There are potential cumulative effects within the socio-economics national study area (Scotland).

Magnitude of impact

For offshore elements this is focused on the demand for temporary (overnight) accommodation related to the installation and commissioning offshore energy generation and transmission assets, with the majority of work taking place offshore, and only short term stays associated with the start and finish of two week shift patterns. Onshore construction activities have the potential to create demand for medium term accommodation demand, although the majority of the workforce is anticipated to be drawn from within a c60 minute drive time. There is therefore limited overlap of potential impact.
The impacts will be contained within the anticipated maximum 96 month construction period. They are therefore assessed as long term.
The magnitude of impact within the socio-economics national study area when considering the baseline procurement scenario remains negligible when considering the cumulative effects of Tier 1 schemes.

Sensitivity of the receptor

The growth of the tourism sector which includes the temporary accommodation sector is a policy priority nationally. The analysis of baseline has identified significant remaining capacity across the hotel, guest house/B&B and hostel accommodation sector in terms of both peak month and average annual occupancy. The scale of demand arising from the Tier 1 cumulative effects is below normal levels of demand variation over the period 2017-19.
The sensitivity of the receptor is assessed as medium.

Significance of the effect

With magnitude assessed as negligible and sensitivity as medium, the significance is assessed as minor beneficial across the socio-economics national study area. This is not significant in EIA terms.

Alternative Procurement Scenarios

The enhanced procurement scenario gives rise to increased demand for temporary (overnight) and medium term (e.g. private rented sector) accommodation during the construction phase. As set out above, there is no cumulative effect on the relevant socio-economics local study areas, with the offshore support port locations separate to the onshore impact areas. There are therefore no local study area cumulative effects on the demand for housing, accommodation and local services within Tier 1 beyond those identified for the offshore and onshore elements in their own right.
There are cumulative effects within the socio-economics national study area. The magnitude of cumulative effects remains negligible, the sensitivity of the receptor is medium. The significance of effects is assessed as minor beneficial. This is not significant in EIA terms.

Operation and maintenance phase

During the operation and maintenance phase there are potential cumulative effects within the support harbours socio-economics local study area, which also forms the socio-economics local study area within the consideration of the onshore assessment. There are also potential cumulative effects within the socio-economics national study area.

Magnitude of impact

The majority of the workforce is expected to be drawn from the local area for both offshore and onshore operation and maintenance activity within the support harbours socio-economics local study area. However, as this is adding to the existing levels of offshore wind operation and maintenance activity, employment roles are considered fully additional. There is sufficient lead in time, as well as a range of skills and training programmes in place in order to train local residents to fill available roles. Notwithstanding, there is the potential for some relocations into the local and national study area to meet the additional demand for workers. A maximum of 50% of additional workforce relocating from outside the relevant study area is assumed within both offshore and onshore analysis to test the potential impacts. This is adopted as a high estimate to test the potential impact on existing capacity.
The total predicted scale of impact is set out in Table 18.142 Open ▸ .

Table 18.143: Potential Cumulative Effects of Tier 1 Schemes on Demand for Housing, Accommodation and Local Services – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The magnitude of potential cumulative effects relative to the baseline environment are set out at Table 18.143 Open ▸ .

Table 18.144: Magnitude of Potential Operation and Maintenance Phase Cumulative Impacts on Demand for Housing, Accommodation and Local Services – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

On the basis of this assessment the magnitude of impacts is assessed as low within the support harbours Socio-Economics local study area and negligible within the socio-economics national study area. This is summarised in Table 18.144 Open ▸ .

Table 18.145: Magnitude of Potential Operation and Maintenance Phase Cumulative Impacts on Demand for Housing, Accommodation and Local Services – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

The impacts will span the 35 year operation and maintenance phase and are therefore assessed as long term.

Sensitivity of the receptor

The housing market in each study area has delivered additional dwellings in recent years, with plans for additional housing to meet planned population and economic growth including targeted growth of the offshore wind sector. The receptor is deemed to have a high degree of recoverability.
Growing the working age population and attracting migrant labour, as well as delivering additional housing is a policy ambition across socio-economics local study areas and the socio-economics national study area.
Demand for housing, accommodation and local services is deemed to be of negligible vulnerability, high recoverability, and high value. The sensitivity of the receptor is therefore considered to be medium.

Significance of the effect

With magnitude assessed as negligible and sensitivity as medium, the significance is assessed as minor beneficial across the support harbours socio-economics local study area. This is not significant in EIA terms.
With magnitude assessed as negligible and sensitivity as medium, the significance is assessed as minor beneficial across the socio-economics national study area. This is not significant in EIA terms.

Decommissioning phase

The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. For offshore elements is anticipated that all structures above seabed level will be removed, but subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts. For onshore elements there is potential for the facilities to be retained and upgraded for other uses.
No plans are in place to consider potential locations for decommissioning support ports. It is not known if this will be located in Scotland. Given the need for large lay down areas the four port locations identified as under consideration for the construction phase would have the greatest potential to accommodate decommissioning activities based on current circumstances.
As noted above, within the construction phase there is no cumulative effect on the relevant socio-economics local study areas, with the offshore support facility locations separate to the onshore impact areas. There are therefore no local study area cumulative effects on the demand for housing, accommodation and local services within Tier 1 beyond those identified for the offshore and onshore elements in their own right. This would apply equally to the decommissioning phase.
There may be cumulative effects within the socio-economics national study area. The significance of cumulative effects assessed at construction phase for accommodation, housing and local services is minor beneficial. On the basis of currently available evidence the significance of effects for decommissioning phase will be no greater than minor beneficial and therefore not significant in EIA terms across socio-economics national study areas.

Tiers 2 to 4

Construction phase

Magnitude of impact

Whilst detailed information is not available it is reasonable to assume that there is potential for cumulative impact on the demand for temporary (overnight) accommodation, primarily within the Aberdeen and Dundee socio-economics local study areas. This would be dependent on the selection of either Aberdeen or Dundee as the primary construction support facility for the Proposed Development.
The magnitude of impact assessed for the Proposed Development is low in both relevant socio-economics local study areas.
Based on available data the potential magnitude of potential cumulative effects is assessed as low to medium across the Aberdeen and Dundee socio-economics local study areas. The upper end of this range is based on construction phases for more than two projects coinciding.
The magnitude of potential cumulative effects is assessed as negligible across the socio-economics national study area.

Sensitivity of the receptor

The sensitivity of the receptor is assessed as medium. The growth of the tourism sector which includes the temporary accommodation sector is a policy priority nationally. The analysis of baseline data has identified significant remaining capacity across the hotel, guest house/B&B and hostel accommodation sector in terms of both peak month and average annual occupancy. The scale of demand arising from the Tier 1 cumulative effects is below normal levels of demand variation over the period 2017-19.

Significance of the effect

Across the Aberdeen and Dundee socio-economics local study areas the magnitude of impact is assessed as low to medium beneficial. The sensitivity of the receptor is assessed as medium. The significance of potential cumulative effects is assessed as minor to moderate. Due to the current plans for construction phases not to overlap and the capacity within the temporary accommodation sector the overall significance of cumulative effects is assessed as minor beneficial. This is not significant in EIA terms.
With magnitude assessed as negligible and sensitivity as medium, the significance is assessed as minor beneficial across the socio-economics national study area. This is not significant in EIA terms.

Alternative Procurement Scenarios

The assessment of effects under the enhanced procurement scenario for the Proposed Development found no change to the significance of effects relative to the baseline scenario. The assessment of potential cumulative effects is therefore unchanged.

Operation and maintenance phase

There is potential overlap with the Aberdeen, Dundee, and support harbours socio-economics local study areas. The timing of the operation and maintenance phases is anticipated to coincide.

Magnitude of impact

The magnitude of impact arising from the Proposed Development has been assessed as negligible.
On the basis of the information available the magnitude of cumulative impact is also assessed as negligible.

Sensitivity of the receptor

The housing market in each study area has delivered additional dwellings in recent years, with plans for additional housing to meet planned population and economic growth including targeted growth of the offshore wind sector. The receptor is deemed to have a high degree of recoverability.
Growing the working age population and attracting migrant labour, as well as delivering additional housing is a policy ambition across local and national socio economics study areas.
Demand for housing, accommodation and local services is deemed to be of negligible vulnerability, high recoverability and high value. The sensitivity of the receptor is therefore considered to be medium.

Significance of the effect

With magnitude assessed as negligible and sensitivity assessed as medium the significance of potential cumulative effects is assessed as minor beneficial across the Aberdeen, Dundee, and support harbours socio-economics local study areas and socio economics national study area. This is not significant in EIA terms.

Decommissioning phase

The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. For offshore elements is anticipated that all structures above seabed level will be removed, but subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts. For onshore elements there is potential for the facilities to be retained and upgraded for other uses.
No plans are in place to consider potential locations for decommissioning support ports. It is not known if this will be located in Scotland. Given the need for large lay down areas the four port locations identified as under consideration for the construction phase would have the greatest potential to accommodate decommissioning activities based on current circumstances.
If Aberdeen or Dundee were selected as a decommissioning port, there may be cumulative effects with the Tier 2 to 4 schemes. However timing is uncertain and no data is available on which to make an assessment.
The significance of cumulative effects assessed at construction phase for accommodation, housing and local services is minor beneficial. On the basis of currently available evidence the significance of effects for decommissioning phase will be no greater than minor beneficial and therefore not significant in EIA terms across socio-economics local or national study areas.

Impact on Tourism and Recreation Activity and Associated Economic Value

In assessing any potential adverse cumulative effects upon tourism and recreation activity the following receptors have been considered:

accommodation, housing, and local services.
seascape, landscape and visual impact (via review of volume 2, chapter 15);
infrastructure and other users (via review of volume 2, chapter 17); and
shipping and navigation (via review of volume 2, chapter 13).

Accommodation, Housing and Local Services

The analysis of cumulative effects on accommodation, housing and local services set out above identified minor beneficial effects on temporary (overnight) accommodation during the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases.
On the basis of this review there are no likely significant cumulative effects on tourism and recreation that warrant consideration.

Seascape and Visual Impact

Volume 2, chapter 15 considers effects on near shore recreational receptors through visual amenity.
As per volume 2, chapter 15 (section 15.12) a summary of the cumulative effects assessed, relevant to the tourism local study area, is summarised below (daytime only).

Table 18.146: Cumulative Effects of the Proposed Development on Representative Viewpoints

Source: Volume 2, chapter 15, section 15.12.

As per volume 2, chapter 15 (section 15.11) a summary of the significance of cumulative effects on seascape (coastal) character assessed at each Coastal Character Area relevant to the tourism local study area is summarised below (daytime only).

Table 18.147: Significance of Effects (Daytime) on Seascape (Coastal) Character – Summary

Source: Volume 2, chapter 15, section 15.12.

As per volume 2, chapter 15 (section 15.11) a summary of the significance of cumulative effects on landscapes relevant to the tourism local study area is summarised below (daytime only).

Table 18.148: Significance of Effects (Daytime) on Seascape (Coastal) Character – Summary

As per section 18.11, effects on transport routes are screened out of the cumulative effects assessment.
According to volume 2, chapter 15 the main tier 1 cumulative effect during construction is likely to occur in views experienced by walkers along a short section of the John Muir Way between Torness and Chapel Point, and visitors to Skateraw Harbour, where the construction of the landfall will be visible at close range in combination with the construction of the Berwick Bank Wind Farm offshore and the construction of the onshore substation in inland views, which are assessed to be significant, although temporary during construction. Tier 1 cumulative effects during operation and maintenance will only occur on receptors near the onshore substation, where both the operational onshore substation and the Berwick Bank Wind Farm offshore may be visible and influence views and perceived character. These tier 1 cumulative effects have been found to be significant when considering the whole project effect (i.e. the total effect of the onshore substation and the Berwick Bank Wind Farm offshore) on localised parts of the landscape around the onshore substation where there are also sea views to the Proposed Development, including geographically contained areas of the Coastal Margins LCT (277) (Lothians), Dunbar to Barns Ness Coast SLA and Thorntonloch to Dinglass Coast SLA, and a number of representative viewpoints in these areas at Skateraw, John Muir Link and Innerwick. When considered as an additional contribution of the Proposed Development (Berwick Bank Wind Farm Offshore), the cumulative effect is however assessed as not significant, fundamentally because the Proposed Development will have a limited influence on the perceived character and views at such long range offshore and results in a low level of additional cumulative change over and above the effect of Berwick Bank onshore substation alone
As per volume 2, chapter 15 the contribution of the Proposed Development to the cumulative effect with tier 2 projects on views and perceived character of the South-East Aberdeenshire, Fife and Angus coastline of the SLVIA study area has been found to be medium-low to low with effects not significant, due to it being visually recessive at long distance offshore partially behind Inch Cape and Seagreen 1A, with Inch Cape contributing most to the overall cumulative effect on the views given its closer proximity and larger vertical scale. The cumulative effect of the Proposed Development with tier 2 projects is also assessed as medium-low and not significant in views and perceived character of the East Lothian coast and progressively reduces to low in views from the Scottish Borders coastline, fundamentally because tier 2 projects (Inch Cape and Seagreen 1A in particular) will have a limited influence on views, as they are located at very long range (over approximately 56km and 69km respectively from the coast), and Inch Cape is located behind Neart na Gaoithe, such that there is very limited additional cumulative change or interaction of the Proposed Development with these tier 2 projects.
The Proposed Development will have limited interaction with tier 3 projects and it is assessed that the Proposed Development will result in no additional significant cumulative seascape, landscape and visual effects with scoping stage projects included in the tier 3 assessment.
Tier 4 projects are screened out of the cumulative effects assessment in volume 2, chapter 15.
Overall the number of visual receptors and designated landscapes where cumulative effects are assessed to be significant in EIA terms is limited. The baseline tourism conditions set out for each impacted local authority in section 18.7.6 indicate that the tourism local study area has a wide and varied tourism sector encompassing many attractions above and beyond the limited, specific locations subject to potential cumulative visual impacts. Therefore, the role these specific locations play in the tourism industry of the tourism local study area can be considered as negligible. Overall, the significance of cumulative visual impacts at the tourism local study area level is assessed as negligible.
Research in 2008 on the economic impacts of wind farms on Scottish tourism found that whilst there is typically a preference among visitors for landscapes without wind farms, offshore wind farms have had a negligible and, in some cases, beneficial effects on the tourism industry. The research quotes a study carried out to identify whether a recent experience of a wind farm had altered the likelihood of a visitor returning to Scotland. The study found that 99% of visitors who had seen a wind farm suggested that the experience did not have any effect. Additionally, the research quotes an internet survey found that few very large farms concentrated in one area have less of an impact on tourism than many small farms spread across the country. To conclude on the various studies undertaken, the report finds that whilst wind farms have an adverse impact on GVA and employment in the tourism industry, the impact is very small.

Infrastructure and Other Users

Volume 2, chapter 17 considers cumulative effects on a range of recreational receptors including fishing, sailing and motor cruising, kite surfing, windsurfing, sea/surf kayaking, canoeing, beach users and diving.
In all cases, the magnitude of effects is assessed as low, significance minor, and no secondary mitigation is required. The cumulative effects are assessed as below the threshold of EIA significance in all cases.
On the basis of the chapter review, there are negligible likely significant tourism effects that warrant consideration.

Shipping and Navigation

Volume 2, chapter 13 considers navigational safety and risk for all vessels including recreational vessels, as well as restrictions to port activities and users.
The assessment of cumulative effects associated with the Proposed Development is in all cases deemed to be broadly acceptable or tolerable, which are not significant in EIA terms.
On the basis of the chapter review there are no likely significant tourism effects that warrant consideration

Tier 1

Construction phase

Magnitude of impact

Analysis of the topics set out above has found there are direct or indirect tourism and recreation cumulative impacts of negligible significance in EIA terms during construction phase. The magnitude of any adverse tourism and recreation effects is therefore assessed as negligible.

Sensitivity of the receptor

Protecting and growing the tourism sector including marine tourism is a policy objective at local and national level. The sensitivity of the receptor is therefore considered to be high.

Significance of the effect

Overall, the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The cumulative effect will, therefore, be of minor adverse significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

Operation and maintenance phase

Magnitude of Impact

Analysis of the topics set out above has found there are direct or indirect tourism and recreation cumulative impacts of negligible significance in EIA terms during operation and maintenance phase. The magnitude of any adverse tourism and recreation cumulative effects is therefore assessed as negligible.

Sensitivity of the receptor

Protecting and growing the tourism sector including marine tourism is a policy objective at local and national level. The sensitivity of the receptor is therefore considered to be high.

Significance of the effect

Overall, the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The cumulative effect will, therefore, be of minor adverse significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

Decommissioning phase

The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. For offshore elements is anticipated that all structures above seabed level will be removed, but subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts. For onshore elements there is potential for the facilities to be retained and upgraded for other uses.
As noted above, within the construction phase cumulative effects are not significant in EIA terms. There are therefore no tourism local study area cumulative effects on tourism and recreation activity and associated economic value within Tier 1 beyond those identified for the offshore and onshore elements in their own right. This would apply equally to the decommissioning phase.

Tiers 2 to 4

Construction phase

The Tier 2 to 4 schemes have potential for cumulative effects. The degree of overlap with construction periods is uncertain and may not occur.

Magnitude of impact

The cumulative assessment of relevant impacts for Tier 2–4 projects (where available) is set out below:

Inch Cape Offshore Wind Farm: tourism effects were scoped out altogether after agreement by MS-LOT.
Moray Offshore Wind Farm (West): the magnitude of the two relevant impacts considered by the Moray West EIA were negligible adverse and low adverse respectively.
Neart Na Gaoithe Offshore Wind: the magnitude of cumulative impacts on tourism were assessed ‘marginally’ higher than the project itself as a result of changes to the ‘aggregate visual effect’. The sensitivity of the tourism receptor was described as negligible, and the overall significance of cumulative effects on tourism was assessed as not significant in EIA terms.
1. These effects capture different elements of the tourism and recreation sector. All are considered negligible to low.
2. There is no data to assess the potential effects to tourism and recreation activity from other Tier 2 to 4 schemes.

Sensitivity of the receptor

Protecting and growing the tourism sector including marine tourism is a policy objective at local and national level. The sensitivity of the receptor is therefore considered to be high.

Significance of the effect

The magnitude of cumulative effects is assessed as ranging from negligible to low adverse. The sensitivity of the receptor is assessed as high. The significance of potential cumulative effects across the tourism local study area is assessed as minor adverse. This is not significant in EIA terms.

Operation and maintenance phase

No cumulative effects are assessed as a result of the Proposed Development.
No data is available on the potential impact of the Tier 2 to 4 schemes on tourism and recreation activity during the operation and maintenance phase. Therefore it is not possible to undertake any form of cumulative assessment.

Decommissioning phase

The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. It is therefore not possible to determine whether and how decommissioning phase activities will impact on tourism receptors.
No plans are in place to consider potential locations for decommissioning support ports. It is not known if this will be located in Scotland.
The conclusion of assessment that is possible for the Proposed Development is that effects would be less than or equal to those stated for the construction phase. Therefore any effects will not be significant in EIA terms.

18.13. Transboundary Effects

Potential transboundary socio-economics and tourism impacts upon European Economic Area (EEA) states may arise through the purchase of project components, equipment and the sourcing of labour from companies based outside the UK. The sourcing of materials and labour from EEA states is assumed to provide beneficial effects to the economies of EEA states and so the consideration of measures envisaged to reduce or eliminate such effects is not relevant in the context of transboundary impacts.
The following considerations have been made with respect to linkages between socio-economics and tourism and transboundary effects assessed in other topic chapters:

volume 2, chapter 12: Commercial Fisheries: no likely significant transboundary effects.
volume 2, chapter 13: Shipping and Navigation: on the basis of cumulative effects assessment, any likely transboundary effects are assessed as being of tolerable significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.
volume 2, chapter 15 Seascape and Visual Resources: no likely significant transboundary effects.
volume 2, chapter 17: Infrastructure and Other Users: no likely significant transboundary effects.
1. Since relevant topic chapters have assessed no significant transboundary effects, it is likely that no related transboundary effects on socio-economics and tourism receptors will be significant in EIA terms.
2. The screening of transboundary impacts therefore identifies no potential for significant effects with regards to socio-economics and tourism.

18.15. Summary of Impact, Mitigation Measures, Likely Significant Effects and Monitoring

Information on socio-economics and tourism receptors was collected through desktop review for the following socio-economics local study areas and socio-economics national study area:

Invergordon socio-economics local study area;
Aberdeen socio-economics local study area;
Montrose socio-economics local study area;
Dundee socio-economics local study area;
Methil socio-economics local study area;
Burntisland socio-economics local study area;
Rosyth socio-economics local study area;
Leith socio-economics local study area;
support harbours socio-economics local study area; and
Scotland socio-economics national study area.
1. Table 18.153 Open ▸ to Table 18.162 Open ▸ present a summary of the potential impacts, mitigation measures and residual effects in respect to socio-economics and tourism. The impacts assessed include:
impact on employment in activities (including supply chain) associated with: manufacturing, construction, and installation; operation and maintenance; and decommissioning;
impact on GVA (£) supported in activities (including supply chain) associated with: manufacturing, construction, and installation; operation and maintenance; and decommissioning;
impact on access to employment amongst local residents in activities (including supply chain) associated with: manufacturing, construction, and installation; operation and maintenance; and decommissioning;
impact on the demand for housing, accommodation and local services; and
impact on tourism and recreation activity and associated economic value.
1. Overall – as per Table 18.149 Open ▸ and Table 18.50 Open ▸ – it is concluded that if a Scottish port/harbour facility is selected as a base for the construction, operation and maintenance, or decommissioning phases:

Socio-economics local study areas:

the beneficial impact on employment in that location is likely to be significant in EIA terms;
the beneficial impact on GVA in that location is likely to be significant in EIA terms – the two exceptions are in the case of Rosyth and support harbours socio-economics local study areas during the operation and maintenance phase;
the beneficial impact on access to employment amongst local residents is likely to be not significant in EIA terms – the exception is Invergordon during the construction phase, where impacts could be significant in EIA terms; and
the beneficial impact on demand for housing, accommodation and local services is likely to be not significant in EIA terms.

Socio-economics national study area

the beneficial impact on employment in Scotland is likely to be significant in EIA terms;
the beneficial impact on GVA in Scotland is likely to be significant in EIA terms during the construction phase, not significant in EIA terms during the operation and maintenance phase, and significant in EIA terms during the decommissioning phase;
the beneficial impact on access to employment amongst Scottish residents is likely to be not significant in EIA terms – the exception is under the alternative scenario, where the effect has the potential to be significant in EIA terms during the construction phase; and
the beneficial impact on demand for housing, accommodation and services in Scotland is likely to be not significant in EIA terms.
1. The impact on tourism and recreation activity and its associated economic value has been assessed as no greater than minor adverse. This is not significant in EIA terms. There is potential for minor adverse impacts within the local study area covering the local authority areas of East Lothian and Scottish Borders due to low level disruption to recreational users of the sea. The detailed assessments of disruption to activities have not found these to be substantial. This is not significant in EIA terms.
2. Table 18.154 Open ▸ to Table 18.163 Open ▸ present a summary of the likely significant socio-economic effects in EIA terms.

Table 18.150: Significance of Effects on Employment, GVA, Access to Employment, and Demand for Housing, Accommodation and Local Services – Socio-Economics Local Study Areas, Baseline Scenario

Table 18.151: Significance of Effects on Employment, GVA, Access to Employment, and Demand for Housing, Accommodation and Local Services – Socio-Economics National Study Area, Baseline and Enhanced Scenarios

The cumulative effects assessed are the same as those included in the Proposed Development impact assessment.
Overall – as per Table 18.151 Open ▸ and Table 18.152 Open ▸ - it is concluded that if a Scottish port/harbour facility is selected as a base for the construction, operation and maintenance, or decommissioning phases:

the beneficial cumulative impact on employment is likely to be significant in EIA terms;
the beneficial cumulative impact on GVA is likely to be significant in EIA terms with the exception of the support harbours socio-economics local study area under Tier 1 conditions;
the beneficial cumulative impact on access to employment amongst local residents is likely to be not significant in EIA terms under Tier 1 conditions. However, consideration of Tier 2 projects increases the beneficial effects on access to employment amongst local residents to being significant in EIA terms during the construction phase; and
the beneficial cumulative impact on demand for housing, accommodation and services in Scotland is likely to be not significant in EIA terms.

Table 18.152: Cumulative Effects on Employment, GVA, Access to Employment, and Demand for Housing, Accommodation and Local Services – Socio-Economics Local Study Areas, Baseline Scenario

Table 18.153: Cumulative Effects on Employment, GVA, Access to Employment, and Demand for Housing, Accommodation and Local Services – Socio-Economics National Study Area, Baseline and Enhanced Scenarios

The cumulative impact on tourism and recreation activity and its associated economic value has been assessed as no greater than minor adverse. This is not significant in EIA terms.
Table 18.164 Open ▸ to Table 18.169 Open ▸ present a summary of the potential cumulative effects.
No potential transboundary impacts have been identified in regard to effects of the Proposed Development.

Table 18.154: Summary of Likely Significant Environmental Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring – Invergordon Socio-Economics Local Study Area

Table 18.155: Summary of Likely Significant Environmental Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring– Aberdeen Socio-Economics Local Study Area

Table 18.156: Summary of Likely Significant Environmental Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring– Montrose Socio-Economics Local Study Area

Table 18.157: Summary of Likely Significant Environmental Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring– Dundee Socio-Economics Local Study Area

Table 18.158: Summary of Likely Significant Environmental Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring– Methil Socio-Economics Local Study Area

Table 18.159: Summary of Likely Significant Environmental Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring– Burntisland Socio-Economics Local Study Area

Table 18.160: Summary of Likely Significant Environmental Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring– Rosyth Socio-Economics Local Study Area

Table 18.161: Summary of Likely Significant Environmental Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring– Leith Socio-Economics Local Study Area

Table 18.162: Summary of Likely Significant Environmental Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring– Support Harbours Socio-Economics Local Study Area

Table 18.163: Summary of Likely Significant Environmental Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring– Socio-Economics National Study Area

Table 18.164: Summary of Likely Significant Environmental Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring– Tourism Local Study Area

Table 18.165: Summary of Likely Significant Cumulative Environment Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring – Aberdeen Socio-Economics Local Study Area

Table 18.166: Summary of Likely Significant Cumulative Environment Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring – Montrose Socio-Economics Local Study Area

T able 18.167: Summary of Likely Significant Cumulative Environment Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring – Dundee Socio-Economics Local Study Area

Table 18.168: Summary of Likely Significant Cumulative Environment Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring – Support Harbours Socio-Economics Local Study Area

Table 18.169: Summary of Likely Significant Cumulative Environment Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring – Socio-Economics National Study Area

Table 18.170: Summary of Likely Significant Cumulative Environment Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring – Tourism Local Study Area

18.16. References

Aberdeen City Council (2017). Aberdeen Local Development Plan 2017. Aberdeen.

Angus Council (2016) Angus Local Development Plan. Angus.

Comfy Workers (2021). Contractor Accommodation and Corporate Housing Report 2021. Available at: https://www.comfyworkers.com/en/insights/market/contractor-accommodation-corporate-housing. Accessed on: 16 February 2022.

Dundee City Council (2019). Dundee Local Development Plan. Dundee.

East Lothian Council (2018). East Lothian Local Development Plan 2018. Haddington, East Lothian.

ekos (2016). Sailing Tourism in Scotland. Glasgow, The Crown Estate, Highlands and Islands Enterprise and Scottish Canals.

Fife Council (2017). Fife Local Development Plan. Fife.

Fraser Allander Institute (2021). Economic Impact of Scotland’s Renewable Energy Sector. Glasgow, University of Strathclyde.

Highlands and Island Enterprise (2019). Highlands and Islands Enterprise 2019–2022 Strategy. Highlands and Islands.

Marine Scotland (2020). Marine Scotland Assessment Available at: https://marine.gov.scot/sma/assessment/marine-tourism. Accessed on 16 February 2022.

Moray West Offshore Windfarm (2018). Offshore Economic Impact Assessment Report. Edinburgh, Moray Offshore Windfarm (West) Limited.

North Connect High Voltage Direct Current Cable Infrastructure (2018). UK Environmental Impact Assessment Report. Volume 2. Stavanger, North Connect.

Offshore Energy (2021). Scots planning two new subsea cable factories. Available at: https://www.offshore-energy.biz/scots-planning-two-new-subsea-cable-factories/. Accessed on:16 February 2022.

Offshore Wind Scotland (2022). Scottish Offshore Wind Supply Chain Directory. Available at: https://www.offshorewindscotland.org.uk/sowec/supply-chain-directory/. Accessed on:16 February 2022.

Opportunity Cromarty Firth (2022). About Opportunity Cromarty Firth. Available at: https://opportunitycromartyfirth.co.uk/about/. Accessed on: 8 April 2022.

Sail Scotland (2021). East Coast. Available at: https://sailscotland.co.uk/explore/eastcoast/. Accessed on: 16 February 2022.

Scottish Borders Council (2016). Scottish Borders Local Development Plan. Melrose.

Scottish Energy Ports Capability Directory (2022). Port of Leith. Available at: https://energy.scottishports.org.uk/ports/port-of-leith. Accessed on: 8 April 2022.

Scottish Energy Ports Capability Directory (2022). Aberdeen Harbour. Available at: https://energy.scottishports.org.uk/ports/aberdeen-harbour?. Accessed on: 8 April 2022.

Scottish Energy Ports Capability Directory (2022). Energy Park Fife. Available at: https://energy.scottishports.org.uk/ports/energy-park-fife?. Accessed on: 8 April 2022.

Scottish Energy Ports Capability Directory (2022). Eyemouth Harbour. Available at: https://energy.scottishports.org.uk/ports/eyemouth-harbour?. Accessed on: 8 April 2022.

Scottish Energy Ports Capability Directory (2022). Montrose Port. Available at: https://energy.scottishports.org.uk/ports/monstrose-port?. Accessed on: 8 April 2022.

Scottish Energy Ports Capability Directory (2022). Nigg Energy Park. Available at: https://energy.scottishports.org.uk/ports/nigg-energy-park?. Accessed on: 8 April 2022.

Scottish Energy Ports Capability Directory (2022). Port of Dundee. Available at: https://energy.scottishports.org.uk/ports/port-of-dundee-1?. Accessed on: 8 April 2022.

Scottish Energy Ports Capability Directory (2022). Port of Rosyth. Available at: https://energy.scottishports.org.uk/ports/port-of-rosyth?. Accessed on: 8 April 2022.

Scottish Enterprise (2019). Building Scotland’s Future Today: Scottish Enterprise’s Strategic Framework 2019–2022. Glasgow.

Scottish Government (2015). Scotland’s Economic Strategy. Edinburgh

Scottish Government (2020a). Economic Recovery Implementation Plan. Edinburgh

Scottish Government (2020b). Offshore Wind Policy Statement. Edinburgh

Scottish Government (2020c). Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind Energy. Edinburgh

Scottish Government (2020d). Shaping Scotland’s Economy. Inward Investment Plan. Edinburgh

Scottish Government (2020e). Marine Social Attitudes: Survey. Edinburgh

Scottish Government (2020f). Scottish Marine Recreation and Tourism Survey 2015. Available at: https://marine.gov.scot/sma/content/scottish-marine-recreation-and-tourism-survey-2015. Accessed on: 16 February 2022.

Scottish Government (2021). A Scotland for the future: The opportunities and challenges of Scotland’s changing population. Edinburgh

Scottish Government (2021a). Housing to 2040. Edinburgh

Scottish Government (2021b). Scotland 2045: Our Fourth National Planning Framework (draft). Edinburgh.

Scottish Government (2022a). News – Deal agreed to establish Green Freeports. Available at: https://www.gov.scot/news/deal-agreed-to-establish-green-freeports/. Accessed on 8 April 2022.

Scottish Government (2022b). Policy – Cities and regions – Green freeports. Available at: https://www.gov.scot/policies/cities-regions/green-ports/. Accessed on: 8 April 2022.

Scottish Government (2022c) Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation: Delivering Economic Prosperity. Edinburgh.

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[1] Labour catchment areas are commonly defined based on the locations from which people are typically drawn to an employment location such as a business, an employment centre (such as a port), or an entire town or city.

[2] As per non-binding guidance in Glasson, J. et al. (2020)

[3] C = Construction, O = Operation and maintenance, D = Decommissioning

[4] This commonality means that in Table 18.7 Open ▸ Total Employment (2019) counts for socio-economics local study areas do not sum to the equivalent Scotland figure.

[5] Total Employment (2019) counts for socio-economics local study areas do not sum to the equivalent Scotland figure due to commonalities between study areas as discussed in section 18.3.1. For example, the Fife local authority area is included in the Dundee, Methil, Burntisland, and Rosyth socio-economics local study areas.

[6] Where a port is not under consideration for a given phase (e.g. Nigg and the operation and maintenance phase), those cells are hatched.

[7] Where a port is not under consideration for a given phase (e.g. Nigg and the operation and maintenance phase), those cells are hatched.

[8] The definition of ‘private rented’ does not include second homes which are let out e.g. Airbnb.

[9] National Records of Scotland data does not provide information on the habitability of unoccupied dwellings.

[10] Based on discussions between HJA and BVG Associates, it is established the 60% UK content procurement scenario is a hypothetical model of the procurement decisions that would be required to reach approximately 60% UK content.

[11] C = Construction, O = Operation and maintenance, D = Decommissioning

[12] Socio-economics local study area magnitudes are notional based on the principle the offshore wind sector accounts for a low proportion of impact industries employment, as evidenced in the data for Scotland.

[13] Support harbours (Cockenzie, Dunbar and Eyemouth) are assessed as being subject to 25% of total impacts given their supporting role.

[14] Socio-economics local study area magnitudes are notional based on the principle the offshore wind sector accounts for a low proportion of impact industries employment.

[15] Socio-economics local study area magnitudes are notional based on the principle the offshore wind sector accounts for a low proportion of impact industries employment.

[16] Socio-Economics local study area magnitudes are notional based on the principle the offshore wind sector accounts for a low proportion of impact industries employment.

[17] Unemployed individuals plus economically inactive individuals that want a job.

[18] C = Construction, O = Operation and maintenance, D = Decommissioning

[19] Support harbours (Cockenzie, Dunbar and Eyemouth) are assessed as being subject to 25% of total offshore impacts given their supporting role.

[20] Support harbours (Cockenzie, Dunbar and Eyemouth) are assessed as being subject to 25% of total offshore impacts given their supporting role.

[21] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[22] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[23] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[24] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[25] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[26] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[27] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[28] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[29] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[30] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[31] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[32] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[33] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[34] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[35] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[36] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[37] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

[38] Inferred from magnitude of construction phase

Tables ▼