Annex C. To The Ornithology Collision Risk Modelling Technical Report: Stochastic Collision Risk Modelling

Table 0

  1. Stochastic Collision Risks Models were run for all species and scenarios as defined in Section 3.2 and using the input parameters defined in Section3.4.

Annex C Table 1 Summary of estimated number of annual collisions and SD for Arctic tern from the sCRM model using the Developer and Scoping Approaches and generic flight height data, for turbine Type A (wide chord and slow rotational speed) and B (narrow chord and fast rotational speed). Avoidance rates are from Bowgen and Cook (2018)

 

 

 

Developer Approach

Scoping Approach

Turbine Scenario

Avoidance rate - Basic

Avoidance rate - Extended

Option 2

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 3

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 2

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 3

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Type A

 

 

 

 

 

 

14MW

0.980

0.980

14.14 (15.13)

2.01 (2.75)

22.05 (19.78)

2.98 (3.53)

15MW

0.980

0.980

12.15 (12.97)

1.92 (2.62)

18.97 (16.96)

2.85 (3.36)

18MW

0.980

0.980

13.79 (14.63)

1.55 (2.15)

21.55 (19.13)

2.29 (2.76)

21MW

0.980

0.980

12.75 (13.44)

1.27 (1.78)

19.94 (17.58)

1.87 (2.28)

24MW

0.980

0.980

11.94 (12.52)

1.08 (1.52)

18.69 (16.39)

1.59 (1.95)

Type B

 

 

 

 

 

 

18MW

0.980

0.980

11.82 (12.54)

1.63 (2.25)

18.47 (16.40)

2.42 (2.89)

21MW

0.980

0.980

11.16 (11.76)

1.39 (1.94)

17.45 (15.39)

2.06 (2.49)

24MW

0.980

0.980

10.61 (11.13)

1.23 (1.73)

16.61 (14.57)

1.82 (2.22)


Annex C Table 2 Summary of estimated number of annual collisions and SD for common tern from the sCRM model using the Developer and Scoping Approaches and generic flight height data, for turbine Type A (wide chord and slow rotational speed) and B (narrow chord and fast rotational speed). Avoidance rates are from Bowgen and Cook (2018)

 

 

 

Developer Approach

Scoping Approach

Turbine Scenario

Avoidance rate - Basic

Avoidance rate - Extended

Option 2

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 3

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 2

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 3

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Type A

 

 

 

 

 

 

14MW

0.980

0.980

6.24 (2.24)

0.89 (0.37)

8.91 (2.34)

1.27 (0.42)

15MW

0.980

0.980

5.35 (1.92)

0.85 (0.35)

7.65 (2.01)

1.21 (0.40)

18MW

0.980

0.980

6.07 (2.1)

0.69 (0.29)

8.67 (2.26)

0.98 (0.32)

21MW

0.980

0.980

5.60 (2.00)

0.56 (0.24)

8.01 (2.08)

0.80 (0.27)

24MW

0.980

0.980

5.24 (1.87)

0.48 (0.20)

7.49 (1.94)

0.68 (0.23)

Type B

 

 

 

 

 

 

18MW

0.980

0.980

5.20 (1.86)

0.73 (0.30)

7.43 (1.94)

1.03 (0.34)

21MW

0.980

0.980

4.90 (1.75)

0.62 (0.26)

7.01 (1.82)

0.88 (0.29)

24MW

0.980

0.980

4.66 (1.66)

0.55 (0.23)

6.66 (1.72)

0.78 (0.26)

Annex C Table 3 Summary of estimated number of annual collisions and SD for great skua from the sCRM model using the Developer and Scoping Approaches and generic flight height data, for turbine Type A (wide chord and slow rotational speed) and B (narrow chord and fast rotational speed). Avoidance rates are from Bowgen and Cook (2018)

 

 

 

Developer Approach

Scoping Approach

Turbine Scenario

Avoidance rate - Basic

Avoidance rate - Extended

Option 2

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 3

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 2

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 3

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Type A

 

 

 

 

 

 

14MW

0.980

0.980

0.52 (0.34)

0.09 (0.07)

0.66 (0.30)

0.11 (0.06)

15MW

0.980

0.980

0.44 (0.29)

0.08 (0.06)

0.56 (0.26)

0.10 (0.06)

18MW

0.980

0.980

0.49 (0.32)

0.06 (0.05)

0.62 (0.29)

0.08 (0.05)

21MW

0.980

0.980

0.45 (0.30)

0.05 (0.04)

0.57 (0.26)

0.07 (0.04)

24MW

0.980

0.980

0.42 (0.27)

0.04 (0.03)

0.53 (0.24)

0.06 (0.03)

Type B

 

 

 

 

 

 

18MW

0.980

0.980

0.42 (0.28)

0.07 (0.05)

0.53 (0.25)

0.09 (0.05)

21MW

0.980

0.980

0.39 (0.26)

0.06 (0.05)

0.49 (0.23)

0.07 (0.04)

24MW

0.980

0.980

0.37 (0.24)

0.05 (0.04)

0.46 (0.21)

0.07 (0.04)


Annex C Table 4 Summary of estimated number of annual collisions and SD for little gull from the sCRM model using the Developer and Scoping Approaches and generic flight height data, for turbine Type A (wide chord and slow rotational speed) and B (narrow chord and fast rotational speed). Avoidance rates are from Bowgen and Cook (2018)

 

 

 

Developer Approach

Scoping Approach

Turbine Scenario

Avoidance rate - Basic

Avoidance rate - Extended

Option 2

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 3

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 2

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 3

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Type A

 

 

 

 

 

 

14MW

0.980

0.980

10.10 (27.82)

10.02 (28.77)

13.76 (35.87)

13.54 (38.63)

15MW

0.980

0.980

10.19 (26.22)

9.25 (24.05)

13.29 (33.48)

11.67 (30.41)

18MW

0.980

0.980

10.39 (29.29)

7.79 (22.34)

14.41 (38.11)

10.62 (29.20)

21MW

0.980

0.980

10.16 (30.14)

6.69 (20.37)

13.82 (39.41)

8.87 (26.13)

24MW

0.980

0.980

7.86 (23.62)

4.90 (14.96)

11.11 (31.70)

6.53 (19.32)

Type B

 

 

 

 

 

 

18MW

0.980

0.980

8.67 (24.43)

6.87 (19.55)

12.02 (31.78)

9.38 (25.49)

21MW

0.980

0.980

8.64 (25.63)

6.24 (18.84)

11.75 (33.52)

8.30 (24.23)

24MW

0.980

0.980

6.77 (20.33)

4.76 (14.39)

9.57 (27.30)

6.39 (18.57)

Annex C Table 5 Summary of estimated number of annual collisions and SD for kittiwake from the sCRM model using the Developer and Scoping Approaches and generic flight height data, for turbine Type A (wide chord and slow rotational speed) and B (narrow chord and fast rotational speed). Avoidance rates are from Bowgen and Cook (2018)

 

 

 

Developer Approach

Scoping Approach

Turbine Scenario

Avoidance rate - Basic

Avoidance rate - Extended

Option 2

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 3

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 2

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 3

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Type A

 

 

 

 

 

 

14MW

0.994

0.970

371.25 (37.96)

325.36 (37.58)

536.15 (34.41)

471.14 (39.87)

15MW

0.994

0.970

310.94 (31.77)

305.79 (34.94)

449.10 (28.88)

442.72 (36.73)

18MW

0.994

0.970

354.02 (36.13)

249.40 (28.94)

511.32 (32.77)

361.20 (30.91)

21MW

0.994

0.970

325.15 (33.13)

205.31 (23.86)

469.62 (29.99)

297.36 (25.53)

24MW

0.994

0.970

302.83 (30.82)

175.28 (20.41)

437.38 (27.85)

253.87 (21.87)

Type B

 

 

 

 

 

 

18MW

0.994

0.970

298.14 (30.43)

261.48 (29.97)

430.61 (27.60)

378.58 (31.600

21MW

0.994

0.970

278.19 (28.35)

224.52 (25.79)

401.80 (25.66)

325.09 (27.26)

24MW

0.994

0.970

261.60 (26.62)

200.41 (23.06)

377.82 (24.06)

290.19 (24.42)


Annex C Table 6 Summary of estimated number of annual collisions and SD for herring gull from the sCRM model using the Developer and Scoping Approaches and generic flight height data, for turbine Type A (wide chord and slow rotational speed) and B (narrow chord and fast rotational speed). Avoidance rates are from Bowgen and Cook (2018)

 

 

 

Developer Approach

Scoping Approach

Turbine Scenario

Avoidance rate - Basic

Avoidance rate - Extended

Option 2

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 3

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 2

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 3

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Type A

 

 

 

 

 

 

14MW

0.997

0.99

19.34 (4.67)

21.35 (6.36)

31.60 (4.28)

35.01 (7.60)

15MW

0.997

0.99

16.97 (4.11)

20.10 (5.86)

27.73 (3.77)

32.94 (6.84)

18MW

0.997

0.99

18.14 (4.39)

16.53 (5.02)

29.64 (4.02)

27.15 (6.13)

21MW

0.997

0.99

16.50 (3.99)

13.65 (4.16)

26.95 (3.65)

22.44 (5.13)

24MW

0.997

0.99

15.22 (3.68)

11.68 (3.57)

24.87 (3.36)

19.21 (4.44)

Type B

 

 

 

 

 

 

18MW

0.997

0.99

16.01 (3.88)

17.16 (5.02)

26.16 (3.55)

28.14 (5.92)

21MW

0.997

0.99

14.81 (3.58)

14.77 (4.33)

24.20 (3.27)

24.24 (5.13)

24MW

0.997

0.99

13.84 (3.35)

13.21 (3.87)

22.62 (3.06)

21.69 (4.59)

 

Annex C Table 7 Summary of estimated number of annual collisions and SD for lesser black-backed gull from the sCRM model using the Developer and Scoping Approaches and generic flight height data, for turbine Type A (wide chord and slow rotational speed) and B (narrow chord and fast rotational speed). Avoidance rates are from Bowgen and Cook (2018)

 

 

 

Developer Approach

Scoping Approach

Turbine Scenario

Avoidance rate - Basic

Avoidance rate - Extended

Option 2

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 3

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 2

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Option 3

-

Estimated collisions (SD)

Type A

 

 

 

 

 

 

14MW

0.997

0.99

4.36 (1.76)

4.34 (2.33)

5.67 (1.75)

5.53 (2.52)

15MW

0.997

0.99

3.84 (1.55)

4.13 (2.15)

4.99 (1.53)

5.28 (2.31)

18MW

0.997

0.99

4.13 (1.66)

3.37 (1.82)

5.38 (1.65)

4.29 (1.96)

21MW

0.997

0.99

3.76 (1.51)

2.77 (1.50)

4.89 (1.50)

3.53 (1.62)

24MW

0.997

0.99

3.48 (1.40)

2.37 (1.29)

4.52 (1.38)

3.02 (1.38)

Type B

 

 

 

 

 

 

18MW

0.997

0.99

3.62 (1.46)

3.52 (1.83)

4.71 (1.44)

4.49 (1.94)

21MW

0.997

0.99

3.35 (1.35)

3.03 (1.58)

4.36 (1.33)

3.86 (1.69)

24MW

0.997

0.99

3.13 (1.26)

2.71 (1.41)

4.07 (1.24)

3.46 (1.51)

 

[1] https://dmpstats.shinyapps.io/avian_stochcrm/

[2] A minimum 24-month programme of baseline offshore ornithology surveys (as undertaken for the Proposed Development) is considered a standard requirements for UK offshore wind farm assessments, providing (at least) two density estimates for each calendar month for use as inputs to the CRM (e.g. Parker et al., 2022).