The Update to the Climate Change Plan (2018-2032) (December 2020)

3.3.20                                   The Scottish Government published the update to the Climate Change Plan (CCP) ‘Securing a Green Recovery on a Path to Net Zero’ on 16 December 2020. The plan covers the period 2018-2032 and responds to the new net zero targets aimed at ending Scotland’s contribution to climate change by 2045.   The period it covers refers to the timescale in which the Government has committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 75% by 2030 (compared with 1990 levels).

3.3.21                                   A key part of the plan is the green recovery, and it states (page 1) that:

“It is essential that a recovery from the pandemic responds to the climate emergency and puts us on a pathway to deliver our statutory climate change targets and a just transition to net zero, by ensuring our actions in the immediate term are in line with our long-term goals”. 

“The Scottish Government has been clear in its commitment to securing a just and green recovery, which prioritises economic, social and environmental well-being, and responds to the twin challenges of the climate emergency and biodiversity loss”.

3.3.22                                   In terms of electricity, the CCP update announces, “further policies to continue the rapid growth in renewable generation over the past 20 years, moving from a low to a zero-carbon electricity system”. 

3.3.23                                   Page 18 refers to the “pathway to 2032” and sets out what the policies mean in practice.  It states:

“our electricity system will have deepened its transformation for the better, with over 100% of Scotland’s electricity demand being met by renewable sources.  More and more households, vehicles, businesses and industrial processes will be powered by renewable electricity, combined with green hydrogen production.  There will also be a substantial increase in renewable generation, particularly through new offshore and onshore wind capacity” (page 18).

3.3.24                                   Chapter 1 addresses electricity. Paragraph 3.1.4 recognises that as Scotland transitions to net zero, a growing and increasingly decarbonised electricity sector “is critical to enabling other parts of our economy to decarbonise – notably transport, buildings and industry”.    

3.3.25                                   Annex A of the CCP contains policies and proposals.  For the electricity sector, ‘outcome 1’ is that “the electricity system will be powered by a high penetration of renewables, aided by a range of flexible and responsive technologies”.

3.3.26                                   Key points from the Climate Change Plan Update include:

>        Government views it as essential that a recovery from the pandemic responds to the climate emergency and puts Scotland on a pathway to deliver statutory climate change targets and a transition to net zero (page 1).

>        In terms of electricity, the plan states that the Government will deliver actions from the Offshore Wind Policy Statement which “supports the development of between 8 and 11GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030.” (page 10).

>        A growing and increasingly decarbonised electricity sector is seen as critical to enabling other parts of the economy to decarbonise, particularly transport, buildings and industry (page 32).

>        The need to invest in renewable generation and related infrastructure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is critical to creating good, green jobs as part of the green recovery and longer-term energy transition (page 78). 

>        Renewable generation is expected to increase substantially between now and 2032 with an expectation of development of between 11 and 16 Giga Watts (GW) of new capacity during this period, “helping to decarbonise our transport and heating energy demand” (page 40). 

The Scottish Offshore Wind Policy Statement

3.3.27                                   The Offshore Wind Policy Statement (OWPS) (2020) sets out ambitions to capitalise on offshore wind development and the role this technology could play in meeting commitments of Net Zero by 2045. The OWPS builds upon the ambitions outlined in Scotland’s Energy Strategy. It also refers to the Offshore Wind Sector Deal published in 2019 which details specific actions to be undertaken by Governments and industry, designed to promote and grow the sector.

3.3.28                                   The OWPS highlights the intention of the Scottish Government to achieve as much as 11 GW of offshore wind capacity in Scottish waters by 2030. The report shows that the total consented capacity in Scotland (both from fixed and floating technologies) was 5.6 GW in September 2020.

3.3.29                                   Furthermore, the OWPS states:

“Looking beyond 2030, we know that huge increases in renewable capacity and generation are likely to be needed in order to decarbonise our energy use, and to meet the potential for much greater demand for clean electricity – as well as for green hydrogen – to reduce emissions associated with heat, transport and industrial energy demand as we move towards 2045 and net zero. The 2020 Future Energy Scenarios, published by National Grid ESO, includes the potential requirement for 24 GW of offshore wind capacity dedicated solely to hydrogen production”. (paragraph 10)

3.3.30                                   The OWPS also states with confidence that the current 2 GW of operational and under construction offshore wind capacity in Scottish waters could grow to between 8 GW to 11 GW by 2030, based on estimated forecasts of growth trends.

3.3.31                                   The Proposed Development will be a key contributor towards the offshore wind capacity growth required in Scottish waters to aid Net Zero goals.

The Programme for Government (2022)

3.3.32                                   The ‘Programme for Government’ ‘a Stronger and More Resilient Scotland’ was published in September 2022.  It states that the climate emergency is becoming “more urgent” (page 4) and with reference to the current cost of living crisis, states “our journey to net zero is not just part of the solution to this crisis: it is also critical to minimising the impending climate crisis, the impact of which will be even more significant than what we expect to see in the coming months”.

3.3.33                                   The Programme maintains the national focus on the transition to net zero and the significant economic opportunity it creates. The Programme therefore contains robust recommendations relating to achieving Net Zero and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

3.4 UK Climate Change & Energy Legislation & Policy

The Climate Emergency

3.4.1                                       A critical part of the response to the challenge of climate change was the Climate Emergency which was declared in Scotland in April 2019. The declaration of climate emergency needs to be viewed in the context in which it was declared (advice from the CCC) and in response to commitments under the Paris Agreement and what followed from it as a result of the declaration (new emissions reduction law).

The Climate Change Act 2008 & Carbon Budgets

3.4.2                                       The Climate Change Act 2008 (the 2008 Act) provides a system of carbon budgeting. Under the 2008 Act, the UK committed to a net reduction in GHG emissions by 2050 of 80% against the 1990 baseline.  In June 2019, secondary legislation was passed that extended that target to at least 100% against the 1990 baseline by 2050, with Scotland committing to net zero by 2045. 

3.4.3                                       The 2008 Act also established the (Climate Change Commission) CCC which advises the UK Government on emissions targets, and reports to Parliament on progress made in reducing GHG emissions.

3.4.4                                       The CCC has produced six, four yearly carbon budgets, covering 2008 – 2037.  These carbon budgets represent a progressive limitation on the total quantity of GHG emissions to be emitted over the five-year period as summarised in Table 3.2 below.

3.4.5                                       These legally binding ‘carbon budgets’ act as stepping-stones toward the 2050 target.  The CCC advises on the appropriate level of each carbon budget and once accepted by Government, the respective budgets are legislated by Parliament.  All six carbon budgets have been put into law and run up to 2037.  The UK is currently in the third carbon budget period 2018-2022. 

Table 3.2: Carbon Budgets and Progress[6]

3.4.6                                       The Sixth Carbon Budget (CB6) requires a reduction in UK greenhouse gas emissions of 78% by 2035 relative to 1990 levels.  This is seen as a world leading commitment, placing the UK “decisively on the path to net zero by 2050 at the latest with a trajectory that is consistent with the Paris Agreement”. 

3.4.7                                       Page 23 of CB6 refers to the devolved nations and sets out that “UK climate targets cannot be met without strong policy action across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland” and recognises that although the main policy levers are held by the UK Government, Scotland can take action through complementary measures at the devolved level including supporting policies such as “planning and consenting”.

3.4.8                                       Key points from CB6 include:

>        UK climate targets cannot be met without strong policy action in Scotland.

>        The CCC is clear in setting out that new demand for electricity will mean that electricity demand will rise 50% to 2035 and potentially trebling by 2050.

>        CB6 needs to be met and that will need more and faster deployment of renewable energy developments than has happened in the past.

>        In terms of the expansion of low carbon energy supplies, the in the CCC’s ‘balanced pathway’ the low carbon share of generation is 100% by 2035 – the “largest contribution is from offshore wind reaching the Government’s goal of 40 GW in 2030, on a path to 65-125 GW by 2050.” (page 25)

3.4.9                                       Following the Sixth Carbon Budget, the UK Government announced on 20 April 2021 that it would set the world’s most ambitious climate change target into law (by the Carbon Budget Order 2021) to reduce emissions by 78% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels.

The UK Energy White Paper (December 2020)

3.4.10                                   The UK Government Energy White Paper ‘Powering our Net Zero Future’ (December 2020) sets out that: “electricity is a key enabler for the transition away from fossil fuels and decarbonising the economy cost-effectively by 2050”. 

3.4.11                                   It adds a key objective is to “accelerate the deployment of clean electricity generation through the 2020s” (page 38).  Electricity demand is forecast to double out to 2050, which will “require a four-fold increase in clean electricity generation with the decarbonisation of electricity increasingly underpinning the delivery of our net zero target” (page 42).

3.4.12                                   This anticipated growth of renewable electricity is illustrated in the graph below – Figure 3.1.

Figure 3.1: Illustrative UK Final Energy Use in 2050

3.4.13                                   In terms of electricity policy in the White Paper, the UK Government clearly recognises that the scale of change that is required to respond to climate change is at a pivotal point.  The anticipation is that there is going to need to be a global green industrial revolution and it is only through this that an appropriate response would be made to tackling climate change issues.  Chapter 1 of the White Paper sets out this context and makes clear the likely change in the nature and volume of electricity generation.  It recognises the very significant role that renewable electricity generation will play in relation to delivering total energy usage.  This means it will have to play a much greater role in decarbonising both transport and heat. 

The UK Net Zero Strategy (October 2021)

3.4.14                                   The UK Government published the Net Zero strategy in October 2021. This sets out policies and proposals for keeping in the UK on track in relation to carbon budgets and the UK's nationally determined contribution (NDC) and establishes the long-term pathway to net zero by 2050.

3.4.15                                   The Net Zero Strategy sets out the Government's plans for reducing emissions from each sector of the UK economy, related to carbon budget and to the eventual target of net zero by 2050. The Strategy has been submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate (UNFCC) as the UK's second long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy under the Paris Agreement.

3.4.16                                   Page 19 addresses the power sector and sets out that the power system will be fully decarbonised by 2035. 

3.4.17                                   Key policies are set out including that by 2013 there will be some 40GW of offshore wind with “more onshore, solar and other renewables”.

3.4.18                                   In terms of power, the Strategy references the Energy White Paper (2020) which set out the goal of a fully decarbonised and low-cost power system by 2050. It adds that CB6 represents “a very significant increase in the pace of power sector decarbonisation, coupled with increased demand due to accelerated action another sector dependent on low-carbon electricity”. (page 98). It adds: 

“although the Energy White Paper envisaged achieving an overwhelmingly decarbonised power system during the 2030s, we have since increased our ambition further. By 2035 all our electricity will need to come from low carbon sources, subject to security of supply bringing forward the Government's commitment to a fully decarbonised power system by 15 years, whilst meeting at 40-60% increase in demand”.

3.4.19                                   The Strategy also sets out that the Government will be supporting sustained deployment of low-carbon generation (page 103), in this regards it states that there will need to continue to drive rapid deployment of renewables.

The British Energy Security Strategy (April 2022)

3.4.20                                   The British Energy Security Strategy (“BESS”) was published by the UK Government on 7 April 2022. The BESS focuses on energy supply and states that in the future nuclear will have an expanded role and that renewables have an important role: the foreword states inter alia:

“this government will reverse decades of myopia, and make the big call to lead again in a technology the UK was the first to pioneer, by investing massively in nuclear power.

Accelerating the transition away from oil and gas then depends critically on how quickly we can roll out new renewables.

The growing proportion of our electricity coming from renewables reduces our exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets. Indeed, without the renewables we are putting on the grid today, and the green levies that support them, energy bills would be higher than they are now. But now we need to be bolder in removing the red tape that holds back new clean energy developments and exploit the potential of all renewable technologies”. (emphasis added)

3.4.21                                   In terms of offshore wind, the BESS states (page 16):

“Our island’s resources, with its shallow seabeds and high winds offers us unique advantages that have made us global leaders in offshore wind and pioneers of floating wind. With smarter planning we can maintain high environmental standards while increasing the pace of deployment by 25%. Our ambition is to deliver up to 50GW by 2030, including up to 5GW of innovative floating wind.

Our history of North Sea oil and gas expertise enables us rapidly to deploy our rich expertise in sub-sea technology and maximise our natural assets. Already, just off the coast of Aberdeenshire, we have built the world’s first floating offshore wind farms. There will be huge benefits in the Irish and Celtic Sea. And by 2030 we will have more than enough wind capacity to power every home in Britain.

We will be the Saudi Arabia of wind power, with the ambition that by 2030 over half our renewable generation capacity will be wind, with the added benefit of high skilled jobs abounding these shores. But the development and deployment of offshore wind farms still takes up to 13 years.

On planning, these projects tend to have public support, and ultimately benefit the environment because they help reduce the damage to habitats that is caused by climate change.

On cost, the unit cost of offshore wind power has fallen by around two-thirds. The Contracts for Difference scheme has shared the risks of investing in new technologies to boost UK renewables and bring in billions of pounds of private investment.

On jobs, our technological leadership is delivering high skilled, high wage British jobs. Our increased ambition means we expect the sector will grow to support around 90,000 jobs by 2030.”

3.4.22                                   The BESS is specifically referenced in the Berwick Bank Statement of Need which highlights that it is relevant to the case for need for the Proposed Development because it explains the important energy security and affordability benefits associated with developing electricity supplies which are not dependent on volatile international markets and are located within the UK’s national boundaries. The urgency for an electricity system which is self-reliant and not reliant on fossil fuels is enormous in order to protect consumers from high and volatile energy prices, and to reduce opportunities for destructive geopolitical intrusion into national electricity supplies and economics.  The Proposed Development would help the UK attain these objectives.

3.5 Key Zero Carbon Targets: Summary

3.5.1                                       It is considered helpful to summarise the key targets and the current position against each.  There are a number of key zero carbon targets as set out in Table 3.3 below.

Table 3.3: Key Zero Carbon Targets