8.1.4.    Kittiwake

139. Burthe et al., (2014) concluded that kittiwake have moderate to high vulnerability to all the pressures assessed, including high vulnerability to climate change. With climate change SST predicted to increase in the Forth and Tay region and across the North Sea, which may be detrimental to kittiwake success through bottom-up impacts on their preferred prey, sandeel (JNCC, 2021f; Burthe et al., 2014; Carroll et al., 2017; Wanless et al., 2018). In the North Sea, changes to the timing of key life history events in sandeel and their copepod prey have resulted in reduced quality and quantity of prey available for kittiwake (Frederiksen et al., 2013). Kittiwake overwintering survival and breeding success have been negatively correlated with an increase in SST (Frederiksen et al., 2004, 2005, 2007) and stronger and earlier stratification, including at colonies close to the Proposed Development (Carroll et al., 2015). This could be amplified by the continued fishing of sandeel, which places additional pressure on this important stock (ICES, 2019; Searle et al., 2022). As kittiwake are exclusively surface feeders, they are limited to prey available at the surface which makes them highly sensitive to reductions in prey abundance (Burthe et al., 2014; Daunt et al., 2017). These factors, along with range shifts have contributed to predictions that kittiwakes are likely to decline in the Forth and Tay region within the next 80 years (Searle et al. 2022; Sadykova et al. 2020). A reduction in prey availability will also decrease the body condition of kittiwake, meaning they are less resilient to storm conditions, which may make mortality and wreck events more likely as storms events increase in magnitude and frequency as a result of climate change (Camphuysen, 2019; Fort et al., 2015; Mitchell et al., 2020). Storms have also been demonstrated to have a direct negative effect on breeding success, through damage to nests on cliffs at the Isle of May (Newell et al., 2015). Due to the vulnerability of kittiwake to bottom-up trophic processes related to climate change and anthropogenic pressures, kittiwake populations are predicted to experience significant declines. Therefore, efforts to lessen the impact of climate change are likely to be important to this species’ success in the future.

8.1.5.    Puffin

140. Burthe et al., (2014) concluded that puffin have the highest vulnerability to climate effects, and effects from human disturbance, followed by effects from fisheries. The success of puffin has been closely linked with the success of their prey, making them vulnerable to bottom-up impacts relating to climate change and anthropogenic pressures (e.g. Burthe et al., 2014; Fayet et al., 2021; Frederiksen et al., 2013, Johnston et al., 2021). In the Forth and Tay area, sandeels are the dominant food in breeding puffins (Wanless et al., 2018), making them vulnerable to reduced sandeel availability, size and quality which has been associated with increasing SST, and changes in the timing of suitable available sandeel (Burthe et al., 2012; Harris, Murray and Wanless, 1998; Johnston et al., 2021; Wanless et al., 2018). Puffins are pursuit divers, meaning they are able to forage at a range of depths and which may be advantageous with climate change compared with surface feeders (Burthe et al., 2014). However, declines in puffin populations have been predicted due to their sensitivity to sandeel abundance and SST, a reduction in the overlap of puffin and sandeel ranges in the future (Sadykova et al., 2020; Searle et al., 2022), as well as predictions that the Forth and Tay region will become climatically unsuitable for puffin by 2100 (Huntley et al., 2007). This could be amplified by the continued fishing of sandeel, which places additional pressure on this important stock (ICES, 2019), and their vulnerability to nest flooding during strong rains (Newell et al, 2013). Puffin breeding success in the Forth and Tay region may also rely on the continued control of the invasive tree mallow plant (Anderson, 2021a; Anderson, 2021b). Burthe et al. (2014) concluded that puffins have low vulnerability to pressures associated with wind farms. Puffins are not considered vulnerable to collision risk due to their flight height, high proportion of time spent loafing and underwater, and their manoeuvrability (Furness et al., 2013).

8.1.6.    Razorbill

141. Burthe et al., (2014) concluded that razorbill have a greater vulnerability to climate effects and disturbance, than the other pressures assessed. Whilst bottom-up influences associated with the availability of sandeel have been correlated with razorbill productivity, the biomass of 0-group (Burthe et al., 2012) and 1-group (Frederiksen et al., 2006) sandeels was not found to have a significant effect on razorbill productivity. Evidence that they can exploit other food sources such as sprat and herring (Wanless et al., 2018) may have contributed to their success compared with kittiwake, for example, which has also been correlated with sandeel abundance (Frederiksen et al., 2004, 2005, 2007). However, despite recent increases in population size near the Proposed Development, it is predicted that razorbill will be vulnerable to climate impacts due to a reduction in overlap with sandeel stocks (Burthe et al., 2014; Searle et al., 2022), and predictions that the area may become unsuitable in the future (Huntley et al., 2007). The combined impact of climate change from reduced prey availability and increased frequency of storms could lead to an increase in mortalities in guillemot, and an increase in wrecks featuring this species (Camphuysen et al., 2019; Harris and Wanless, 1996; Newell et al., 2015). Changes to prey availability may also leave razorbill increasingly vulnerable to wrecks associated with storm events, as they may not have sufficient energy stores to survive storm conditions (Heubeck et al., 2011). Storms have also been demonstrated to have a direct negative effect on breeding success, through damage to nests on cliffs at the Isle of May which could continue to be detrimental to the productivity of the species (Newell et al., 2015). Razorbills have moderate vulnerability to anthropogenic threats, including fisheries bycatch and offshore wind which may contribute to pressures on the species ( Table 8.1   Open ▸ ; Burthe et al., 2014), although razorbill are at low risk of collision with offshore wind farms due to their low flight height and high flight agility (Furness et al., 2013).

9. Summary

142. The purpose of this Technical Appendix is to put the potential impacts from the Proposed Development on seabirds in the context of the wider ecosystem for seabird species which are relatively abundant in the area of the Proposed Development. Seabirds which are sensitive to potential impacts from the Proposed Development are: gannet, guillemot, herring gull, kittiwake, lesser black-backed gull, puffin and razorbill.
143. Scotland is estimated to support 45% of Europe’s breeding seabirds, including 11% and 43% of Europe’s kittiwake and guillemot populations respectively, and approximately 46% of the world’s gannet population (Forrester et al., 2007; Murray, Harris and Wanless, 2015). The Forth and Tay region supports significant colonies of all of the key species considered in this Technical Appendix. Population declines have been observed in breeding seabirds in Scotland between 1986 – 2018 (Marine Scotland, 2020). raising concern for the future of Scotland’s seabirds. This includes declines of herring gull, kittiwake and puffin in the Forth and Tay area since the first census in 1969-70 (JNCC, 2021d JNCC, 2021f; JNCC, 2021g).
144. Population declines and breeding failures have been linked with a range of direct and indirect pressures on seabirds. Direct threats to seabirds include incidental capture and entanglement in fishing gear, vessel disturbance, collision, and displacement from offshore wind farms, changes in weather due to climate change, disease and INNS (Žydelis et al. 2013; Dias et al., 2019; Fliessbach et al., 2019; Mitchell et al., 2020). As top-predators in the marine environment, seabirds are sensitive to bottom-up pressures, including effects on the lowest trophic levels (e.g. on plankton and copepods), and mid-trophic levels (e.g. prey fish species). Sandeels, followed by sprat and herring, are some of the most important prey species for Scotland’s seabird populations (Wanless et al., 2018). The most significant indirect threats to seabirds are related to the reduced availability of these prey species, such as through fishing, and food web impacts related to climate change (MacDonald et al., 2015; Lynam et al., 2017; Mitchell et al., 2020; Marine Scotland, 2020).
145. However, it is challenging to separate the effects of different pressures, due to the complexity of how they interact and the combined impact they have on seabird populations, their environment and their prey at all scales. Although offshore wind farms can impact local seabird populations directly through displacement and collision, there may also be beneficial indirect impacts from offshore wind farms, for example through the creation of artificial reefs in wind turbine foundations to increase prey availability for some seabird species (Coolen, 2017).
146. Overall, gannet, herring gull and lesser black-backed gull are thought to be buffered from the impacts of climate change, mostly relating to their ability to access a wider variety of prey but may be sensitive to controls on fisheries discards (Johnston et al., 2021). Guillemot, kittiwake, puffin and razorbill abundances have been more closely linked to the success of their prey, which may make them more vulnerable to bottom-up climate change impacts (Burthe et al., 2014; Johnston et al., 2021). A reduction in prey quality and availability may also reduce the resilience of these species against storm events, which could lead to an increase in large-scale wrecks as climate change leads to an increase in extreme weather (Anker-Nilssen et al., 2017; Camphuysen et al., Heubeck et al., 2011; Morley et al., 2016). Cliff nesting species, such as kittiwake and razorbill, may also be sensitive to nest failure in high winds and storm surges (Newell et al., 2015). Whilst auks and gannet may be sensitive to fisheries bycatch, high-risk fishing gear such as static net, longline and midwater trawls, are not common in the Forth and Tay region (Bradbury et al., 2017; Larsen et al., 2021). In the Forth and Tay region, and elsewhere, gannet, herring gull, kittiwake and lesser black-backed gull may also be vulnerable to effects from offshore wind farms, including collision and displacement (Burthe et al., 2014; Furness et al., 2013).

Whilst there is uncertainty around the in-combination effects from a growing number of windfarms, without action to lower carbon emission, climate change related impacts are likely to continue having an adverse effect on seabird populations, which must be considered when weighing up ecological trade-offs (Scott, 2022). 

147. Without intervention to reduce the pace and severity of climate change, the status of seabird populations will be adversely affected through direct and indirect impacts. Whilst climate change is arguably the biggest driver of change, other pressures including pollution, fisheries and offshore developments all contribute. In order to ensure the future of seabirds, a holistic, ecosystem-based approach is required, with a suite of restoration measures to address habitat modifications, disruption to food webs, removal of invasive species and HPAI (RSPB, 2022). Climate change is leading to ecosystem-wide environmental changes through factors such as rising global sea levels, increasing frequency of severe weather events, and warming oceans, with adverse effects on seabirds predicted to continue if action is not taken (McGinty et al., 2021; Mitchell et al., 2020; Sadykova et al., 2020; Searle et al., 2022). Offshore wind farms will play a vital role in reducing the impacts of climate change by generating electricity with low carbon emissions compared with fossil fuels (European Commission, 2020; ORE Catapult 2021; Scottish Government, 2021), and can provide an opportunity to benefit seabirds through rapid implementation of compensatory measures (RSPB, 2022).
148. This technical appendix has outlined the direct and indirect impacts to seabird populations from key threats, including climate change, offshore wind farms and commercial fisheries. This has shown the complexity of marine food webs, and the pressures to seabirds and the wider marine ecosystem. Climate change is one of the most significant threats to this system. Whilst offshore wind farm development may have local negative impacts, on a wider scale offshore wind farms are anticipated to make a significant positive contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to reducing climate change impacts.

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