Annex C Auk Displacement Mortality for the Berwick Bank Development Array plus 2km buffer: SPATIAL Approach

For context, the Applicant has used the Matrix method, to explore outputs based on different displacement rates applied spatially (“Spatial Approach”) across the Array area and buffer. The approach has been applied to auks, and area-specific displacement rates applied within the 2km buffer and the Development Array (see ‘Spatial Approach” in Table 3.4).

Matrices for the ‘2km buffer only’ were formulated by subtracting the matrices for the Development Array from the matrices for the Development Array plus 2km buffer (displayed in sections 0 to 0) and are presented below in Table C.1 to Table C.6.
The outputs highlighted in colour are those deemed the ‘most realistic’ mortality estimates, based on the displacement and mortality rates as advised by the: i) Scoping Opinion (highlighted in dark teal; rates outlined in Table 3.4) and ii) the “Spatial Approach” (highlighted in orange). For the Spatial Approach, the Developer uses a displacement rate of 30% and mortality rate of 1% for all auk species in all seasons within the 2km buffer. Cells highlighted in light teal outline the potential associated uncertainty around these figures.
The figures highlighted in orange from the Development Array matrices based on a displacement rate of 50% and mortality rate of 1% for all auk species in all season) and the 2km buffer only matrices were then summed to get the final mortality values across the Development Array plus 2km buffer with regards to the Spatial Approach. These are displayed in Table C.7 along with the outputs from the Developer Approach for comparison.

Table C.1: Potential guillemot mortality in the 2km buffer only, following displacement from the Berwick Bank Development Array in the breeding season. Estimates considered, in light of empirical evidence, to represent the most realistic scenarios are colour coded, with dark teal representing rates advised by the Scoping Opinion; orange representing rates defined by the Spatial Approach; and light teal representing uncertainty around these figures.

Guillemot (Breeding season)	Mortality Level (% of displaced birds at risk of mortality)
Displacement Level (% of all birds on site)		0%	1%	2%	3%	4%	5%	10%	15%	20%	30%	50%	80%	100%
	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	10%	0	15	29	43	58	72	145	217	290	434	723	1157	1447
	20%	0	29	58	86	116	145	290	434	579	868	1447	2314	2893
	30%	0	43	86	130	173	217	434	650	868	1301	2170	3471	4339
	40%	0	58	116	173	231	290	579	868	1157	1736	2893	4629	5786
	50%	0	72	145	217	290	361	723	1085	1447	2170	3616	5786	7232
	60%	0	86	173	260	347	434	868	1301	1736	2603	4339	6942	8678
	70%	0	102	203	304	405	506	1012	1519	2025	3038	5062	8100	10124
	80%	0	116	231	347	462	579	1157	1736	2314	3471	5786	9257	11572
	90%	0	130	260	391	521	650	1301	1952	2603	3905	6509	10414	13018
	100%	0	145	290	434	579	723	1447	2170	2893	4340	7232	11572	14464

Table C.2: Potential guillemot mortality in the 2km buffer only, following displacement from the Berwick Bank Development Array in the non-breeding season. Estimates considered, in light of empirical evidence, to represent the most realistic scenarios are colour coded, with dark teal representing rates advised by the Scoping Opinion; orange representing rates defined by the Spatial Approach; and light teal representing uncertainty around these figures.

Guillemot (Non-breeding season)	Mortality Level (% of displaced birds at risk of mortality)
Displacement Level (% of all birds on site)		0%	1%	2%	3%	4%	5%	10%	15%	20%	30%	50%	80%	100%
	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	10%	0	10	20	30	40	50	101	152	203	304	507	810	1014
	20%	0	20	40	61	81	101	203	304	405	608	1014	1621	2027
	30%	0	30	61	91	122	152	304	456	608	912	1520	2432	3040
	40%	0	40	81	122	162	203	405	608	810	1216	2027	3242	4053
	50%	0	50	101	152	203	254	507	760	1014	1520	2533	4053	5067
	60%	0	61	122	183	244	304	608	912	1216	1824	3040	4864	6080
	70%	0	71	142	213	283	354	709	1064	1418	2128	3546	5674	7093
	80%	0	81	162	244	324	405	810	1216	1621	2432	4053	6485	8106
	90%	0	91	183	273	365	456	912	1368	1824	2736	4559	7296	9119
	100%	0	101	203	304	405	507	1014	1520	2027	3040	5067	8106	10133

Table C.3: Potential razorbill mortality in the 2km buffer only, following displacement from the Berwick Bank Development Array in the breeding season. Estimates considered, in light of empirical evidence, to represent the most realistic scenarios are colour coded, with dark teal representing rates advised by the Scoping Opinion; orange representing rates defined by the Spatial Approach; and light teal representing uncertainty around these figures.

Razorbill (Breeding season)	Mortality Level (% of displaced birds at risk of mortality)
Displacement Level (% of all birds on site)		0%	1%	2%	3%	4%	5%	10%	15%	20%	30%	50%	80%	100%
	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	10%	0	1	2	3	4	5	10	15	20	30	49	80	99
	20%	0	2	4	6	8	10	20	30	40	60	99	160	199
	30%	0	3	6	9	12	15	30	45	60	90	150	239	300
	40%	0	4	8	12	16	20	40	60	80	119	199	319	399
	50%	0	5	10	15	20	24	49	74	99	149	249	399	499
	60%	0	6	12	18	23	30	60	90	119	180	300	479	599
	70%	0	7	14	21	28	35	70	105	140	210	350	559	699
	80%	0	8	16	23	32	40	80	119	160	239	399	639	798
	90%	0	9	18	27	36	45	90	135	180	269	449	718	898
	100%	0	10	20	30	40	49	99	149	199	299	499	798	998

Table C.4: Potential razorbill mortality in the 2km buffer only, following displacement from the Berwick Bank Development Array in the non-breeding season. Estimates considered, in light of empirical evidence, to represent the most realistic scenarios are colour coded, with dark teal representing rates advised by the Scoping Opinion; orange representing rates defined by the Spatial Approach; and light teal representing uncertainty around these figures.

Razorbill (Non-breeding season)	Mortality Level (% of displaced birds at risk of mortality)
Displacement Level (% of all birds on site)		0%	1%	2%	3%	4%	5%	10%	15%	20%	30%	50%	80%	100%
	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	10%	0	4	7	11	15	18	36	55	73	109	181	291	363
	20%	0	7	15	22	29	36	73	109	146	218	363	582	727
	30%	0	11	22	33	44	55	109	164	218	328	545	873	1091
	40%	0	15	29	44	58	73	146	218	291	437	727	1163	1455
	50%	0	18	36	55	73	90	181	272	363	545	909	1455	1819
	60%	0	22	44	66	87	109	218	328	437	655	1091	1746	2182
	70%	0	25	51	76	102	127	255	382	509	764	1273	2037	2546
	80%	0	29	58	87	116	146	291	437	582	873	1455	2327	2910
	90%	0	33	66	98	131	164	328	491	655	982	1637	2619	3274
	100%	0	36	73	109	146	181	363	545	727	1091	1819	2910	3637

Table C.5: Potential puffin mortality in the 2km buffer only, following displacement from the Berwick Bank Development Array in the breeding season. Estimates considered, in light of empirical evidence, to represent the most realistic scenarios are colour coded, with dark teal representing rates advised by the Scoping Opinion; orange representing rates defined by the Spatial Approach; and light teal representing uncertainty around these figures.

Puffin (Breeding season)	Mortality Level (% of displaced birds at risk of mortality)
Displacement Level (% of all birds on site)		0%	1%	2%	3%	4%	5%	10%	15%	20%	30%	50%	80%	100%
	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	10%	0	1	3	3	5	6	12	17	23	34	56	90	113
	20%	0	3	5	7	9	12	23	34	45	67	113	180	225
	30%	0	3	7	10	14	17	34	51	67	101	168	270	336
	40%	0	5	9	14	18	23	45	67	90	135	225	360	450
	50%	0	6	12	17	23	28	56	84	113	168	281	450	562
	60%	0	7	14	20	27	34	67	101	135	202	336	539	673
	70%	0	8	16	23	32	39	78	118	157	236	393	629	787
	80%	0	9	18	27	36	45	90	135	180	270	450	719	899
	90%	0	10	20	30	40	51	101	152	202	303	505	809	1011
	100%	0	12	23	34	45	56	113	168	225	337	562	899	1123

Table C.6: Potential puffin mortality in the 2km buffer only, following displacement from the Berwick Bank Development Array in the non-breeding season. Estimates considered, in light of empirical evidence, to represent the most realistic scenarios are colour coded, with dark teal representing rates advised by the Scoping Opinion; orange representing rates defined by the Spatial Approach; and light teal representing uncertainty around these figures.

Puffin (Non-breeding season)	Mortality Level (% of displaced birds at risk of mortality)
Displacement Level (% of all birds on site)		0%	1%	2%	3%	4%	5%	10%	15%	20%	30%	50%	80%	100%
	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	10%	0	2	3	5	6	7	14	21	28	43	71	114	142
	20%	0	3	6	9	12	14	28	43	57	86	142	228	285
	30%	0	5	9	13	17	21	43	64	86	128	214	342	428
	40%	0	6	12	17	23	28	57	86	114	171	285	456	570
	50%	0	7	14	21	28	35	71	106	142	213	356	570	712
	60%	0	9	17	25	34	43	86	128	171	257	428	684	855
	70%	0	10	20	30	40	50	99	150	199	299	499	798	998
	80%	0	12	23	34	46	57	114	171	228	342	570	912	1140
	90%	0	13	25	39	51	64	128	192	257	384	641	1026	1282
	100%	0	14	28	43	57	71	142	213	285	427	712	1140	1425

Table C.7: Potential auk mortality per bio-season following displacement and barrier effects from the Berwick Bank Development array plus 2km buffer, for the Spatial Approach and Spatial Approach mortality and displacement rates listed under the Spatial Approach in Table 3.5.

Species	Developer Approach		Spatial Approach
	Breeding season	Non-breeding season	Breeding season	Non-breeding season
Developer Approach
Guillemot	371	221	342	201
Razorbill	21	62	19	55
Puffin	34	N/A	20	N/A

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