13.7.2.              Future Baseline Scenario

47. The Town and Country Planning (Environmental Impact Assessment) (Scotland) Regulations 2017)), requires that a “a description of the relevant aspects of the current state of the environment (Baseline scenario) and an outline of the likely evolution thereof without development as far as natural changes from the Baseline scenario can be assessed with reasonable effort, on the basis of the availability of environmental information and scientific knowledge” is included within the Onshore EIA Report.
48. In the event that the Proposed Development does not come forward, an assessment of the future baseline conditions has been carried out and is described within this section.
49. Analysis by the Scottish Fiscal Commission sets out forecasts for the Scottish economy to 2026. This indicates short term growth in the economy following the downturn caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Over the medium term 2024–26 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is forecast to grow at 1.4% per annum and employment is forecast to fall nationally. The population is projected to decline in terms of natural change (births minus deaths), with in-migration playing a vital role in sustaining positive population growth (Table 13.8). The effects of ageing across the population will also be felt strongly. This will reduce the size of the working age population to 2043 (–0.2%).

Table 13.8: Population Projections to 2043 (2018-based) – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and  Scotland

Source: HJA analysis of Population Projections for Scottish Areas, 2018-based (National Records of Scotland, 2020)

Note: negative values in parentheses, figures may not sum due to rounding

50. Whilst the working age population and employment are forecast to decline, unemployment is forecast to remain static at 4.2%.
51. Analysis prepared by Scottish Enterprise indicates potential recruitment difficulties and a potential shortage of engineers. The potential opportunities within the low carbon sector (including offshore wind) are stated to be recognised by businesses in Scotland. It is noted that the low carbon sector is well placed to compete for skilled workers due to the good levels of pay in the sector.
52. Sector analysis by Skills Development Scotland includes commentary on the energy, construction and engineering (manufacturing) sectors. Across the energy sector as a whole the workforce is expected to decline by 2031. However, there will continue to be employment opportunities as a result of replacement demand. Major growth is forecast within the offshore wind sector workforce, from 3,500 to 20,000 by 2031 as deals materialise. Within the construction sector, employment is forecast to grow faster than the whole economy average, with high levels of replacement demand fuelling further employment opportunity. Within the engineering sector the workforce is expected to grow, but at a slower rate than the whole economy average.
53. Section 13.4 sets out that Scottish Government, regional public sector economic development stakeholders, and local authorities are planning for future economic growth in the renewable energy sector, which includes offshore wind activities. The strategic planning policy environment, if realised, will result in increased employment and GVA in offshore wind related activities.
54. Overall the data shows relatively weak performance of the Scottish economy anticipated in the medium term, with a declining population and falling levels of total employment. The offshore wind sector is identified as a key growth opportunity but is reliant on investments being secured such as the Project. Without such investments the scale of growth in the offshore wind sector as forecast will not be realised.

13.7.3.              Limitations and Assumptions

55. Conventional modelling of economic impacts for most industrial sectors relies on government statistics, for example those based on SIC07 codes. SIC07 data is most appropriate for traditional industries. The development of new codes for a maturing sector such as offshore wind, however, takes time. At this stage, there are currently no SIC07 codes specific to the offshore wind sector. This means that conventional SIC analyses of offshore wind and related activities needs to map existing SIC07 data onto offshore wind and related activities, which is not straightforward. Analyses using SIC07 codes also rely on generalised data. This means that – either intentionally or unintentionally – some activities relevant to offshore wind and related activities might be excluded, and other activity unrelated to offshore wind and related activities might be included. There is no officially agreed definition to be used when assessing the offshore wind related industry based on SIC07 codes.
56. Use of BRES data covers the period 2015 to 2019 as there is a discontinuity with earlier data following the inclusion of PAYE only businesses in the dataset. 2020 data is not included due to the labour market uncertainty resulting from Covid-19 pandemic. Multiple lockdowns and government measures to mitigate subsequent adverse economic impacts (for example the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme) created a highly unusual set of circumstances potentially impacting official labour market statistics.
57. Specific data on employment and GVA within offshore wind activities is not available across socio-economics local study areas on a consistent basis.
58. Data and sources considered as part of the future baseline scenario were published after 2016, and are therefore implicitly assumed to factor in the potential impacts of the UK’s exit from the European Union.

13.8. Methodology for Assessment of Effects

13.8.1.              Overview

59. The socio-economics assessment of effects has followed, where appropriate, the methodology set out in Volume 1, Chapter 2 of the Onshore EIA Report. There is no official guidance or legislation governing the process of socio-economics reporting. However, specific to the socio-economics study, the following (non-binding) guidance document has also been considered:

• Glasson et al. (2020) Guidance on assessing the socio-economics impacts of offshore wind farms (OWFs), Oxford Brookes University.

13.8.2.              Criteria for Assessment of Effects

60. The process for determining the significance of effects is a two-stage process that involves defining the magnitude of the potential impacts and the sensitivity of the receptors. This section describes the criteria applied in this chapter to assign values to the magnitude of potential impacts and the sensitivity of the receptors. The terms used to define magnitude and sensitivity are based on those which are described in further detail in Volume 1, Chapter 2 of the Onshore EIA Report.
61. The criteria for defining magnitude in this chapter are outlined in Table 13.9   Open ▸ .

Table 13.9: Definition of Terms Relating to the Magnitude of an Impact

62. For each impact under consideration, the magnitude of employment and/or GVA impacts is assessed against multiple baseline conditions and aggregated to a single magnitude level as appropriate. In order to ensure consistency of interpretation, the magnitude assessed against each baseline condition is assigned a value as per Table 13.9   Open ▸ . The average value across baseline conditions is then calculated and used to determine the overall magnitude.
63. This chapter assesses impacts predicted to last for more than two years as ‘long term’, impacts predicted to last between six months and two years as medium term, and impacts predicted to last less than six months as short term.
64. The criteria for defining sensitivity in this chapter are outlined in Table 13.10   Open ▸ .

Table 13.10:  Definition of Terms Relating to the Sensitivity of the Receptor

65. Sensitivity of employment impacts are assessed against whether an area’s policy position has the aim of making the offshore wind sector part of its approach to economic development. This can also be through providing jobs, skills, education, and training for local residents to work in the offshore wind sector. Policy aims to provide the same opportunity in the renewable energy sector are also considered important. General policy aims to provide jobs, skills, education, and training for local residents in any sector are also considered.
66. As per section 13.4, increasing employment in the renewable energy sector, including offshore wind activities specifically, is a policy objective at the national (Scotland) level. Supporting economic opportunities in renewable energy activities is a policy objective of East Lothian and Scottish Borders local authorities (i.e. the socio-economics local study area) to ensure renewable energy plays a role in the future economic development of each Council area. As set out at section 13.4, the offshore wind sector is identified as a growth opportunity within a more broadly defined energy sector which is forecast to experience employment decline, and medium-term declines in employment and population more generally across Scotland.
67. As such, the sensitivity of all receptors at all phases of development are assessed as High unless otherwise stated, due to assessment of capacity/recoverability of receptors.
68. The significance of the effect upon socio-economics receptors is determined by correlating the magnitude of the impact and the sensitivity of the receptor, as outlined in Table 13.11   Open ▸ below.

Table 13.11: Matrix Used for the Assessment of the Significance of the Effect

13.8.3.              Technical Impact Report

69. The Technical Impact Report at Volume 4, Appendix 13.2 (BVG Associates, 2021) sets out an economic analysis of the Project. This has been prepared to inform the socio-economics assessment of effects.
70. The Technical Impact Report considers direct, indirect and induced employment and GVA effects at local, Scotland and UK levels across a detailed breakdown of development phases. The approach draws on BVG Associates proprietary approach. The full methodology employed is set out within the report and its own appendices.

Wind Farm Options Considered

71. The Technical Impact Report considers the potential economic impacts of the wind farm under two different wind farm options – Option 1 and Option 2 (detailed below). Published in December 2021, the Technical Impact Report is based on a point-in-time project description at the time of publishing. Under the ‘options’ considered, the design of the wind farm is the same, except for the following variations in transmission:

• ‘option 1’: 2.3 GW High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC) and 1.8 GW High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC); and
• ‘option 2’: 4.1 GW of HVDC.
  72. These are the named options considered in the Technical Impact Report – as per the project description at the time of publishing. The names of these options (Option 1 and Option 2) differ from the Proposed Development’s project description as defined for consenting.
  73. The expenditure for options 1 and 2 considered in the Technical Impact Report is identical for the development (DEVEX, £0.1 bn), operation and maintenance (OPEX, £6.0 bn), and decommissioning phases (DECEX, £0.2 bn). There is a minor variation for construction phase CAPEX with Option 1 measured at £9.6bn and Option 2 £9.7bn. This is equivalent to approximately 1% additional CAPEX for Option 2. The derived economic impacts under each scenario are therefore subject to very minor variations which are not sufficient to have any substantive impact on the assessment of significance of effects.
  74. The stated CAPEX and OPEX figures are preliminary, and based on the best available information relating to supply chain and procurement conditions at the time the BVGA report was prepared. These figures will be subject to a degree of change throughout the project lifetime, as a result of external macro economic factors such as inflationary effects, and internal project factors such as delivery models. It is unlikely that such changes to CAPEX and OPEX would materially affect the assessments of this chapter.

Adjusting impacts to exclude Cambois connection

75. Since the Technical Impact report was published – on the basis of the options described above – the project description has changed. As described in Volume 1, Chapter 5, the Project has three signed grid connection agreements with the network operator. Two agreements are for connection at the Branxton substation, with a third additional connection at Blyth, Northumberland (referred to as the Cambois connection). Applications for necessary consents for the Cambois connection will be applied for separately.

76. As the Applicant has expenditure commitments related to the Cambois connection, it is assumed the impacts assessed in the Technical Impact Report include impacts associated with the Cambois connection. As such, it is necessary to adjust the impacts assessed in the Technical Impact Report to account for the separate application covering the Cambois connection i.e. discount employment and GVA impacts to remove those associated with the Cambois connection – to consider only the options comprised in the Proposed Development for the assessment of impacts from the project alone. As per Volume 1, Chapter 5 this is described as:

The Proposed Development comprises of onshore cables within a cable corridor from the landfall connecting to a new [SSER] onshore substation… and the onward onshore cable corridor connecting to the SP Energy Networks (SPEN) Branxton Substation… (Volume 1, Chapter 5)

77. Given its overlap with the Proposed Development, the Cambois connection scheme will be considered as part of the cumulative effects assessment.
78. Onshore transmission works will include the following:

• a new onshore substation/convertor station (herein referred to as ‘substation’);
• landfall works;
• onshore cables within a cable corridor between the landfall and the new onshore substation, and between the new onshore substation and the SPEN Branxton substation; and
• associated ancillary infrastructure.
  79. The Branxton substation is being developed by SPEN and is subject to a separate planning application. It is assumed impacts associated with the Branxton substation are not included in the impacts assessed in the Technical Impact Report as the Applicant has no expenditure commitments related to this scheme. However, impacts associated with connection to the Branxton substation are assumed to be included in the impacts assessed in the Technical Impact Report, and are retained for assessment as part of the Proposed Development (as per listed transmission works above).
  80. As such, there is no requirement to adjust the impacts assessed to account for the separate application covering the Branxton substation.
  81. On this basis, of the level 2 supply chain categories set out in Table 13.12   Open ▸ , it is anticipated the following categories include impacts which cover the separate applications, and would require adjustment:

Table 13.12: Adjustment of Technical Impact Report Assessment to Exclude Cambois Connection – by Level 2 Supply Chain Category

82. Because of the uncertainty regarding the share of expenditure between the Project and the Cambois connection, the approach set out above intends to be conservative in allocating a share of expenditure (and therefore impacts) to the Proposed Development, so as not to overstate any beneficial effects. As such, any increase in the Proposed Development’s share of impacts would translate to an increase in the beneficial effects associated with it.

Procurement scenarios

83. Employment and GVA impacts have been assessed on the basis of direct, indirect, and induced impacts:

• direct impacts result from the activities of the Applicant and its major contractors;
• indirect impacts result from the activities of suppliers to the Applicant or its major contractors; and
• induced impacts result from the personal expenditure of individuals working on the Proposed Development (direct and indirect).
  84. The Technical Impact Report (Volume 4, Appendix 13.2) considers four alternative procurement scenarios. These are defined as follows (listed from lowest UK content to highest):
• a low UK content scenario, where significant UK, Scottish and local suppliers are unsuccessful in the procurement process;
• a baseline UK supply scenario, where procurement decisions are based on the current competitiveness of the Scottish and rest of UK supply chain;
• an enhanced UK supply scenario, where all plausible procurement decisions for Local, Scottish and UK supply are included; and
• a 60% UK content scenario, which considers what procurement decisions are needed to reach 60% UK content.
  85. Table 13.13   Open ▸ sets out the local, Scottish and UK content shares across the four procurement scenarios.

Table 13.13: Local, Scottish and UK Content Procurement Scenarios (Shares)

Source: HJA based on BVG Associates (2021).

86. Across all four procurement scenarios local content is estimated at 7%. Therefore, the choice of scenario does not materially impact on the assessment of local impact.
87. Scottish content is similar for both the low and baseline scenarios with a more marked step to the enhanced and 60% scenarios.
88. The Baseline scenario was developed drawing on existing conditions in the offshore wind sector and supply chain activities, and does not assume a worsening or improvement in conditions as in the case of the alternative scenarios. Confidence in the Baseline scenario is high and allows a suitably precautious approach in avoiding overstating economic benefits. The variations across local and Scottish content measures when compared to the low content scenario are modest. It is therefore adopted as a plausible, realistic and suitable scenario for assessing socio-economics effects where a minimum design scenario is required.
89. The Enhanced UK supply scenario is deemed plausible with appropriate engagement and favourable procurement decisions. This scenario takes account of known emerging investments in the Scottish supply chain. The Enhanced scenario is therefore appropriate to be considered as part of the assessment as a plausible, realistic and suitable maximum design scenario. This includes an increased share of both Scottish and UK content.
90. Based on the current status of the UK offshore wind sector supply chain there is a substantial step change required to reach 60% UK content. In order to achieve this level the combined efforts of UK and Scottish Governments, offshore wind developers, Tier 1 and 2 contractors and other key offshore wind sector stakeholders will be needed. Facilitating the supply chain growth necessary to achieve 60% UK content will be beyond any single project, given the future pipeline and investment needs required to drive supply chain improvements. This is deemed unlikely to be achieved in full within the required time period for the construction phase of the Proposed Development. This has been confirmed by stakeholder consultees (see section 13.5). The uncertainty surrounding where the required level of supply chain activity and investment will be located makes the 60% UK content scenario unsuitable for assessment. This accords with stakeholder comment that there is a tendency to consider unrealistic and over ambitious economic impact scenarios.
91. There is no change in local or Scottish content across the Baseline and Enhanced scenarios during the operation and maintenance or decommissioning phases. Variation is only present in the construction phase.
92. To aid readability, the Baseline procurement scenario has been taken forward for full assessment. Additional data or analysis tables are included where appropriate.
93. Table 13.14   Open ▸ sets out the key variations between the baseline and enhanced procurement scenarios. This shows that the enhanced scenario captures an increased share of CAPEX through the construction phase, with the operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases being considered in the same way across both scenarios.

Table 13.14: Local, Scottish and UK Content Procurement Scenarios (Detailed Assumptions)

Source: HJA based on BVG Associates (2021).

Construction, Operation and Maintenance, and Decommissioning Phase Impacts

94. The project-wide impacts assessed under level 1 and 2 supply chain categories as part of the Technical Impact Report have been aggregated to provide headline impacts for construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases as per Table 13.15   Open ▸ . This categorisation includes both onshore and offshore categories, with those relevant to onshore assessment highlighted in yellow.

Table 13.15:  Classification of Project Level 1 and Level 2 Supply Chain Categories by Construction, Operation and Maintenance, and Decommissioning Phase

95. Construction phase impacts are presented as ‘per annum’ FTE years/GVA based on a construction period of 40 months.

13.9. Measures Adopted as Part of the Proposed Development

96. Rather than mitigation there are potential opportunities to secure enhanced beneficial effects within the socio-economics local study areas and Scotland.
97. The Applicant has already engaged in early stage discussions with potential Tier 1 suppliers, key national and regional socio-economics stakeholders including Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise to explore matters relating to labour, skills and inward investment. This builds on existing working relationships established via other offshore wind projects that have been developed or are in development by the Applicant.
98. The Applicant was invited and accepted membership of a local skills and supply chain forum, the aim of which is to discuss avenues for local benefits to be felt within East Lothian as a result of the development. The Applicant attended a kick off meeting on 18 March 2022 with other representatives across the energy industry. The forum has been organised and chaired by Paul McLennan Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) (MSP for East Lothian).  
99. The Applicant’s embedded (tertiary) commitments are set out below:

• Supply Chain Engagement Plan: setting out initiatives to enhance opportunities for procurement from local and Scottish suppliers and to drive the investment in new facilities. This is aligned with Policies 11 and 25 of NPF4.
  100. The Applicant is also committed to the creation of a Community Benefit Fund, pending consent determination for both onshore and offshore components of the Project. A Berwick Bank Community Benefit Fund would be established in partnership with local stakeholders to ensure that local communities help set the priorities for the fund, as well as decide on what gets funded. The details of the Community Benefit Fund would be established after a consent determination has been made for both offshore and onshore aspects of the Project. Ahead of establishing any formal Fund, the Project team are keen to support local initiatives where possible and have invited local stakeholders to discuss opportunities directly with the Project team. To date the Project has supported various local organisations and initiatives such as the North Berwick Fringe By The Sea festival, the Scottish Seabird Centre and the National Merlin Rocket Yachting Championship, held in East Lothian. In addition to this the Project team are working alongside local education partners to explore a variety of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) benefits that the Project can bring to the East Lothian area. The Project team are members of the East Lothian Industry and Education Partnership and are also members of the Mid and East Lothian Chamber of Commerce.

13.10. Key Parameters for Assessment

13.10.1.         Maximum Design Scenario

101. The maximum design scenario(s) summarised here have been selected as those having the potential to result in the greatest effect on an identified receptor or receptor group. These scenarios have been selected from the details provided in Volume 1, Chapter 5 of the Onshore EIA Report. Effects of greater adverse significance are not predicted to arise should any other development scenario, based on details within the Project Design Envelope (PDE) (e.g. different infrastructure layout), to that assessed here, be taken forward in the final design scheme.
102. The maximum design scenario is to be treated as the onshore transmission works to include the following:

• a new onshore substation.
• landfall works;
• onshore cables within a cable corridor between the landfall and the new onshore substation, and between the new onshore substation and the SPEN Branxton substation; and
• associated ancillary infrastructure.
  103. A construction period of 40 months has been assumed throughout.
  104. Potential impacts considered within this assessment are the following:
• Impact on employment  activities (including supply chain); and
• Impact on GVA (£) (including supply chain).

13.10.2.         Impacts Scoped out of the Assessment

105. On the basis of the baseline environment and the project description outlined in Volume 1, Chapter 5 of the Onshore EIA Report, a number of impacts are proposed to be scoped out of the assessment for socio-economics. These impacts were proposed to be scoped-out in The Berwick Bank Wind Farm Onshore Scoping Report (SSER, 2020) (Volume 4, Appendix 2.1) and no concerns were raised by key consultees.
106. Impacts scoped out of the assessment were agreed with key stakeholders through consultation. These, together with a justification, are presented in Table 13.16   Open ▸ .

Table 13.16: Impacts Scoped Out of the Assessment for Socio-economics (tick confirms the impact is scoped out)

13.11. Assessment of Significance

107. The potential effects arising from the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning phases of the Proposed Development are listed in 13.10, along with the maximum design scenario against which each impact has been assessed. An assessment of the likely significance of the effects of the Proposed Development on socio-economics receptors caused by each identified impact is given below.

Impact on Employment Activities (Including Supply Chain)  

108. This impact is applicable to the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases.

Magnitude – Assessment Approach

109. Magnitude of employment impacts are assessed against the following baseline conditions:

• share of total employment across all industries (2019): this gives an indication of the scale of the impact in the context of the receiving environment’s employment base; and
• share of total employment in impact industries (2019): this gives an indication of the scale of the impact in the context of the receiving environment’s impact industries employment base.
  110. The criteria against which magnitude of employment impacts are assessed and can be found in Table 13.17   Open ▸ .

Table 13.17: Magnitude of Employment Impacts Assessment Criteria

Construction Phase

111. Potential expenditure on the following activities associated with the Proposed Development could support employment in Scottish companies that are directly engaged in the manufacturing/supply and construction/installation supply chain:

• balance of plant manufacturing and supply – onshore substation, and onshore cable; and
• civil works associated with construction and installation of onshore substation, onshore cable, and other installation.
  112. The manufacturing/supply and construction/installation of the Proposed Development could also go on to support employment indirectly in the wider Scottish supply chain.
  113. The construction phase for the Proposed Development is expected to be 40 months, which has been assumed throughout.
  114. The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on employment in manufacturing, construction and installation activities are set out in Table 13.18   Open ▸ . This will create opportunities to both safeguard existing employment and facilitate new employment.

Table 13.18: Potential Impacts (Baseline UK Supply Scenario) of the Proposed Development on Employment in Construction Activities

Source: HJA analysis of BVG Associates (2021). Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Magnitude of Impact

115. On the basis of a 40 month construction phase, the impact is assessed as long term. Due to the contract-based nature of manufacturing, construction and installation activities, the impact is assessed as intermittent.
116. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions is set out in Table 13.19   Open ▸ .

Table 13.19: Comparison of Construction Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

117. The magnitude of impact for each socio-economics study area is set out in Table 13.20   Open ▸ .

Table 13.20: Magnitude of Construction Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

Sensitivity of the Receptor

118. As per section 13.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for the socio-economics local study area and Scotland is assessed as high – a summary is set out in Table 13.21   Open ▸ .

Table 13.21: Sensitivity of Employment in Construction Activities – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

Significance of the Effect

119. The significance of the effect for each socio-economics study area is set out in Table 13.22   Open ▸ .

Table 13.22: Significance of Construction Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

120. At the socio-economics local study area level, the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be medium (beneficial) and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will, therefore, be of moderate to major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.
121. At Scotland level, the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be medium (beneficial) and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will, therefore, be of minor to moderate beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

Enhanced Scenario

122. The core assessment set out above has been undertaken on the Baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken to the Enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (Volume 4, Appendix 13.2). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial effects are greater.
123. The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on employment in manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Enhanced procurement scenario are set out in Table 13.23   Open ▸ .

Table 13.23: Potential Impacts (Enhanced UK Supply Scenario) of the Proposed Development on Employment in Construction Activities

Source: HJA analysis of BVG Associates (2021). Figures may not sum due to rounding.

124. Under the Enhanced scenario, there is negligible change in the employment impacts assessed at the socio-economics local study area level during construction phase. Therefore no change in significance of effect from the baseline scenario is assessed at this geography (see Table 13.22   Open ▸ ).
125. There is some increase in the employment impacts assessed under the Enhanced scenario at Scotland level during construction phase. The quantitative assessment indicates an increase from minor to moderate (beneficial) to moderate to major (beneficial) significance of effects at this level. The increase in employment impacts are judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects.
126. Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics national study area level the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be medium (beneficial) and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will be of moderate to major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

127. The Applicant has committed to enhancement of beneficial effects as per section 13.9. No other secondary mitigation is required.

Operation and Maintenance Phase

128. Potential expenditure on the following activities associated with the Proposed Development could support employment in Scottish companies that are directly engaged in the operation and maintenance supply chain:

• Operation, maintenance and services associated with maintenance of onshore grid connection.
  129. The operation and maintenance of the Proposed Development could also go on to support employment indirectly in the wider supply chain.
  130. A 35 year operational period has been assumed throughout.
  131. The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on employment in operation and maintenance activities are set out in Table 13.24   Open ▸ .

Table 13.24: Potential Impacts of the Proposed Development on Employment in Operation and Maintenance Activities

Source: HJA analysis of BVG Associates (2021). Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Magnitude of Impact

132. On the basis of a 35 year operational period, the impact is assessed as long term. Due to the long term contract-based nature of operation and maintenance activities, the impact is assessed as continuous.
133. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions is set out in Table 13.25   Open ▸ .

Table 13.25: Comparison of Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and  Scotland

134. The magnitude of impact for each socio-economics study area is set out in Table 13.26   Open ▸ .

Table 13.26: Magnitude of Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and  Scotland

Sensitivity of the Receptor

135. As per section 13.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for the socio-economics local study area and Scotland is assessed as high – a summary is set out in Table 13.27   Open ▸ .

Table 13.27: Sensitivity of Employment in Operation and Maintenance Activities – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

Significance of the Effect

136. The significance of the effect for each socio-economics study area is set out in Table 13.28   Open ▸ .

Table 13.28: Significance of Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

137. At the socio-economics local study area level, the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be negligible, and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will, therefore, be of negligible beneficial significance[5], which is not significant in EIA terms.
138. At Scotland level, the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be negligible, and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will, therefore, be of negligible beneficial significance[6], which is not significant in EIA terms.

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

139. The Applicant has committed to enhancement of beneficial effects as per section 13.9. No other secondary mitigation required.

Decommissioning Phase

140. Potential expenditure on decommissioning of onshore infrastructure associated with the Proposed Development could support employment in activities associated with decommissioning in the socio-economics local study area and Scotland.
141. The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. At time of writing there is a reasonable expectation that all onshore infrastructure will be retained and repurposed, but subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts (see Volume 4, Appendix 13.2).
142. The Technical Report (Volume 4, Appendix 13.2) notes that the workforce for the decommissioning of the onshore infrastructure associated with the Proposed Development is likely to be supported in a similar way to installation and commissioning. However, the scale of activity will be greatly reduced given the intention to retain and repurpose facilities.
143. On this basis the magnitude of effects would be much lower than those set out for the construction phase under the Baseline and Enhanced scenarios.
144. The significance of effects assessed at construction phase for employment in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities are set out at Table 13.22   Open ▸ . On the basis of currently available evidence the significance of effects for decommissioning phase activities will be of negligible beneficial significance at the socio-economics local study area and Scotland. This is not significant in EIA terms.

Impact on GVA (£) (including supply chain)

145. This impact is applicable to the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases.