Magnitude – Assessment Approach

146. Magnitude of GVA impacts are assessed against the following baseline conditions:

• share of total GVA across all industries (2019): this gives an indication of the scale of the impact in the context of the receiving environment’s GVA output; and
• share of total GVA in impact industries (2019): this gives an indication of the scale of the impact in the context of the receiving environment’s impact industries GVA output.

Construction Phase

147. Potential expenditure on the following activities associated with the Proposed Development could support GVA in Scottish companies that are directly engaged in the manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation supply chain:

• balance of plant manufacturing and supply – onshore substation and onshore cable; and
• civil works associated with construction and installation of onshore substation, onshore cable and other installation.
  148. The manufacturing/supply and construction/installation of the Proposed Development could also go on to support GVA indirectly in the wider Scottish supply chain.
  149. The construction phase for the Proposed Development is expected to be 40 months, which has been assumed throughout.
  150. The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on GVA in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities are set out in Table 13.29   Open ▸ .

Table 13.29: Potential Impacts (Baseline UK Supply Scenario) of the Proposed Development on GVA in Construction Activities

Source: HJA analysis of BVG Associates (2021). Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Magnitude of Impact

151. On the basis of a 40 month construction phase, the impact is assessed as long term. Due to the contract-based nature of development, manufacturing, construction, and installation activities, the impact is assessed as intermittent.
152. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions is set out in Table 13.30   Open ▸ .

Table 13.30: Comparison of Construction Phase GVA Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

153. The magnitude of impact for each study area is set out in Table 13.31   Open ▸ .

Table 13.31: Magnitude of Construction Phase GVA Impacts – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

Sensitivity of the Receptor

154. As per section 13.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for the socio-economics local study area and Scotland is assessed as high – a summary is set out in Table 13.32   Open ▸ .

Table 13.32: Sensitivity of GVA in Construction Activities – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

Significance of the Effect

155. The significance of the effect for each socio-economics study area is set out in Table 13.33   Open ▸ .

Table 13.33: Significance of Construction Phase GVA Impacts – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

156. At the socio-economics local study area level, the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be low (beneficial) and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will, therefore, be of minor to moderate beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.
157. At Scotland level, the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be low (beneficial) and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will, therefore, be of minor to moderate beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

Enhanced Scenario

158. The core assessment set out above has been undertaken on the Baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken to the Enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (Volume 4, Appendix 13.2). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial effects are greater.
159. The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on GVA in manufacturing/supply and construction/installation activities under the Enhanced procurement scenario are set out in Table 13.34   Open ▸ .

Table 13.34: Potential Impacts (Enhanced UK Supply Scenario) of the Proposed Development on GVA in Construction Activities

Source: HJA analysis of BVG Associates (2021). Figures may not sum due to rounding.

160. Under the Enhanced scenario, there is negligible change in the employment impacts assessed at the socio-economics local study area level during construction phase. Therefore no change in significance of effect from the Baseline scenario is assessed at this geography (see Table 13.33   Open ▸ ).
161. There is some increase in the GVA impacts assessed under the Enhanced scenario at Scotland level during construction phase. Despite this, the quantitative assessment indicates no change in the magnitude of impacts at this level.
162. Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at Scotland level the significance of effects assessed remain unchanged from the Baseline scenario as per Table 13.33   Open ▸ above.

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

163. The Applicant has committed to enhancement of beneficial effects as per section 13.9. No other secondary mitigation is required.

Operation and Maintenance Phase

164. Potential expenditure on the following activities associated with the Proposed Development could support GVA in Scottish companies that are directly engaged in the operation and maintenance supply chain:

• operation, maintenance and services associated with maintenance of onshore grid connection.
  165. The operation and maintenance of the Proposed Development could also go on to support GVA indirectly in the wider supply chain.
  166. A 35 year operational period has been assumed throughout.
  167. The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on GVA in operation and maintenance activities are set out in Table 13.35   Open ▸ .

Table 13.35: Potential Impacts of the Proposed Development on GVA in Operation and Maintenance Activities

Source: HJA analysis of BVG Associates (2021). Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Magnitude of Impact

168. On the basis of a 35 year operational period, the impact is assessed as long term. Due to the long term contract-based nature of operation and maintenance activities, the impact is assessed as continuous.
169. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions is set out in Table 13.36   Open ▸ .

Table 13.36: Comparison of Operation and Maintenance Phase GVA Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

170. The magnitude of impact for each socio-economics study area is set out in Table 13.37   Open ▸ .

Table 13.37: Magnitude of Operation and Maintenance Phase GVA Impacts – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

Sensitivity of the Receptor

171. As per section 13.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for the socio-economics local study area and Scotland is assessed as high – a summary is set out in Table 13.38   Open ▸ .

Table 13.38: Sensitivity of GVA in Operation and Maintenance Activities – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

Significance of the Effect

172. The significance of the effect for each socio-economics study area is set out in Table 13.39   Open ▸ .

Table 13.39: Significance of Operation and Maintenance Phase GVA Impacts – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

173. At the socio-economics local study area level, the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will, therefore, be of negligible beneficial significance[7], which is not significant in EIA terms.
174. At Scotland level, the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will, therefore, be of negligible beneficial significance[8], which is not significant in EIA terms.

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

175. The Applicant has committed to enhancement of beneficial effects as per section 13.9. No other secondary mitigation is required.

Decommissioning Phase

176. Potential expenditure on decommissioning of onshore infrastructure associated with the Proposed Development could support GVA in activities associated with decommissioning in the socio-economics local study area and Scotland.
177. The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. At time of writing there is a reasonable expectation that all onshore infrastructure will be retained and repurposed, but subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts (see Volume 4, Appendix 13.2).
178. The Technical Report (Volume 4, Appendix 13.2) notes that the workforce for the decommissioning of the onshore infrastructure associated with the Proposed Development is likely to be supported in a similar way to installation and commissioning. However, the scale of activity will be greatly reduced given the intention to retain and repurpose facilities.
179. On this basis the magnitude of effects would be much lower than those set out for the construction phase under the baseline and enhanced scenarios.
180. The significance of effects assessed at construction phase for GVA in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities are set out at Table 13.33   Open ▸ . On the basis of currently available evidence the significance of effects for decommissioning phase will be of negligible beneficial significance at the socio-economics local study area and Scotland levels. This is not significant in EIA terms.

13.12. Cumulative Effects Assessment

181. The CEA assesses the impact associated with the Proposed Development together with other relevant plans, projects and activities. Cumulative effects are therefore the combined effect of the Proposed Development in combination with the effects from a number of different projects, on the same receptor or resource. Please see Volume 1, Chapter 2 of the Onshore EIA Report for detail on CEA methodology.
182. The projects and plans selected as relevant to the CEA presented within this chapter are based upon the results of a screening exercise (see Volume 4, Appendix 2.4). Volume 4, Appendix 2.4 further provides information regarding how information pertaining to other plans and projects is gained and applied to the assessment. Each project or plan has been considered on a case-by-case basis for screening in or out of this chapter's assessment based upon data confidence, effect-receptor pathways and the spatial/temporal scales involved.
183. In undertaking the CEA for the Proposed Development, it is important to bear in mind that other projects and plans under consideration will have differing potential for proceeding to an operational stage and hence a differing potential to ultimately contribute to a cumulative impact alongside the Proposed Development. Therefore, a tiered approach has be adopted. This provides a framework for placing relative weight upon the potential for each project/plan to be included in the CEA to ultimately be realised, based upon the project/plan’s current stage of maturity and certainty in the projects’ parameters. The tiered approach which will be utilised within the Proposed Development CEA employs the following tiers:

• tier 1 assessment – Proposed Development (Berwick Bank Wind Farm onshore) with Berwick Bank Wind Farm offshore;
• tier 2 assessment – All plans/projects assessed under Tier 1, plus projects which became operational since baseline characterisation, those under construction and those with consent and submitted but not yet determined;
• tier 3 assessment – All plans/projects assessed under Tier 2, plus those projects with a Scoping Report; and
• tier 4 assessment – All plans/projects assessed under Tier 3, which are reasonably foreseeable, plus those projects likely to come forward.
  184. The specific projects scoped into the CEA for socio-economics, are outlined in Table 13.40   Open ▸ .
  185. The range of potential cumulative impacts that are identified and included in Table 13.40 below, is a subset of those considered for the Proposed Development alone CEA assessment. This is because some of the potential impacts identified and assessed for the Proposed Development alone, are localised and temporary in nature. It is considered therefore, that these potential impacts have limited or no potential to interact with similar changes associated with other plans or projects. These have therefore not taken forward for detailed assessment.
  186. Similarly, some of the potential impacts considered within the Proposed Development alone assessment are specific to a particular phase of development (e.g. construction, operation and maintenance or decommissioning). Where the potential for cumulative effects with other plans or projects only have potential to occur where there is spatial or temporal overlap with the Proposed Development during certain phases of development, impacts associated with a certain phase may be omitted from further consideration where no plans or projects have been identified that have the potential for cumulative effects during this period.

Table 13.40: List of Other Developments Considered Within the CEA for Socio-Economics

Cambois Connection

187. As described in Volume 1, Chapter 1, the Applicant is developing an additional export cable grid connection to Blyth, Northumberland (the Cambois connection). Applications for necessary consents (including marine licences) will be applied for separately. The CEA for the Cambois connection is based on information presented in the Cambois Connection Scoping Report (SSER, 2022), submitted in October 2022. The Cambois connection has been screened into the CEA for offshore socioeconomics receptors.

SPEN Eastern Link Project – Converter Station and Cable Route

188. The Eastern Link Project is being developed by SPEN and is subject to a separate planning application. Due to the absence of data relating to potential impacts associated with the scheme (the socio-economics EIA chapter is not available on the East Lothian Council planning portal), the potential cumulative impacts on relevant environmental receptors of the Proposed Development and the SPEN Eastern Link Project cannot be considered within the socio-economics CEA.
189. Any impacts associated with the scheme would result in no material change to the assessment of cumulative effects set out in this chapter.

13.12.1.         Maximum Design Scenario

190. The maximum design scenarios summarised here have been selected as those having the potential to result in the greatest effect on an identified receptor or receptor group. The cumulative effects presented and assessed in this section have been selected from the details provided in Volume 1, Chapter 5 of the Onshore EIA Report as well as the information available on other projects and plans, to inform a ‘maximum design scenario’. Most effects are anticipated to be beneficial. For those effects anticipated to be adverse in nature, effects of greater adverse significance are not predicted to arise should any other development scenario, based on details within the PDE, to that assessed here, be taken forward in the final design scheme.

Table 13.41: Consideration of Cumulative Projects Based on Study Area, Impact, and Phase

191. For the purposes of this chapter, the maximum design scenario refers to the maximum construction and operational impacts (employment and GVA) associated with the Proposed Development and cumulative projects as provided in relevant application documents.

13.12.2.         Cumulative Effects Assessment

192. An assessment of the likely significance of the cumulative effects of the Proposed Development upon socio-economics receptors arising from each identified impact is given below.
193. Tier 1 cumulative impacts are not applicable to the socio-economics local study area during all phases of development – this is because different segments of the construction sector will be impacted by onshore and offshore construction activities[9].

Impact on employment activities (including supply chain).

Tier 1

Construction Phase

194. The potential Tier 1 cumulative impacts on employment in manufacturing/supply and construction/installation activities under the Baseline procurement scenario are set out in Table 13.42   Open ▸ . This will create opportunities to both safeguard existing employment and facilitate new employment.

Table 13.42: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) on Employment in Construction Activities – Scotland

Magnitude of impact

195. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for Scotland is set out in Table 13.43   Open ▸ .

Table 13.43: Comparison of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – Scotland

196. The magnitude of Tier 1 cumulative impacts for Scotland is set out in Table 13.44   Open ▸ .

Table 13.44: Magnitude of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts – Scotland

Note: Assigned values from Table 13.9   Open ▸ shown in brackets

Sensitivity of the receptor

197. As per section 13.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for Scotland is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

198. The significance of effect for Scotland are set out in Table 13.45   Open ▸ .

Table 13.45: Significance of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) – Scotland

199. At Scotland level, the magnitude of Tier 1 cumulative impacts is deemed to be medium (beneficial) and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. Tier 1 cumulative effects will, therefore, be of moderate to major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Enhanced Scenario

200. The assessment set out above has been undertaken on the Baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken for the Enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (Volume 4, Appendix 13.2). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial impacts are greater.
201. The potential Tier 1 Cumulative impacts on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Enhanced procurement scenario are set out in Table 13.46   Open ▸ . An equivalent Enhanced scenario is also available for the Tier 1 project, which has also been adopted here.

Table 13.46: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts (Enhanced Procurement Scenario) on Employment in Construction Activities – Scotland

Magnitude of impact

202. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for Scotland is set out in Table 13.47   Open ▸ .

Table 13.47: Comparison of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – Scotland

203. The magnitude of Tier 1 cumulative impacts for Scotland is set out in Table 13.48   Open ▸ .

Table 13.48: Magnitude of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts – Scotland

Note: Assigned values from Table 13.9   Open ▸ shown in brackets

Sensitivity of the receptor

204. As per section 13.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for Scotland is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

205. The significance of effect for Scotland are set out in Table 13.49   Open ▸ .

Table 13.49: Significance of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) – Scotland

206. Compared to the Baseline scenario, there is a substantial increase in the Tier 1 cumulative impacts assessed during the construction phase under the Enhanced scenario at Scotland level. The quantitative assessment indicates an increase from moderate to major (beneficial) to major (beneficial) significance of effects at this level. The increase in employment impacts are judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects.
207. Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics national study area level the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be high (beneficial) and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will be of major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Operation and Maintenance Phase

208. The potential Tier 1 cumulative impacts on employment in operation and maintenance activities at the socio-economics local study area and the Scotland level are set out in Table 13.50   Open ▸ . This will create opportunities to both safeguard existing employment and facilitate new employment.

Table 13.50: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts on Employment in Operation and Maintenance Activities – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

Magnitude of impact

209. A comparison of the assessed impacts compared to the relevant baseline conditions is set out in Table 13.51   Open ▸ .

Table 13.51: Comparison of Tier 1 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

210. The magnitude of impact for the socio-economics local study area and Scotland is set out in Table 13.52   Open ▸ .

Table 13.52: Magnitude of Tier 1 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

Note: Assigned values from Table 13.9   Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

211. As per section 13.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for the socio-economics local study Area and Scotland is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

212. The significance of the effect for the socio-economics local study area and Scotland is set out in Table 13.53   Open ▸ .

Table 13.53: Significance of Tier 1 Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-economics Local Study Area and Scotland

213. At the socio-economics local study area level, the magnitude of Tier 1 cumulative impacts is deemed to be medium (beneficial) and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. Tier 1 cumulative effects will, therefore, be of moderate to major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.
214. At Scotland level, the magnitude of Tier 1 cumulative impacts is deemed to be medium (beneficial) and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. Tier 1 cumulative effects will, therefore, be of moderate to major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Decommissioning Phase

215. Potential expenditure on decommissioning of Tier 1 project(s) could support employment in activities associated with decommissioning in Scotland.
216. The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. It is currently anticipated that onshore infrastructure would be retained and repurposed, and offshore structures above seabed level will be removed, subject to review in the future based on likely environmental impacts.
217. On this basis the magnitude of effects is expected to be much lower than those set out for the construction phase under the Baseline and Enhanced scenarios.
218. The significance of Tier 1 cumulative effects assessed at construction phase for employment in construction activities are set out in Table 13.45   Open ▸ . Based on currently available evidence, it is concluded the significance of Tier 1 cumulative effects for the decommissioning phase will be of no greater than moderate beneficial significance across Scotland. This is significant in EIA terms.

Tiers 2–4

Construction Phase

219. There is negligible[10] change in the potential cumulative impacts on employment in construction activities at Scotland level between Tier 1 and Tiers 2–4.
220. The significance of the Tiers 2–4 cumulative effects for Scotland are unchanged from those set out for Tier 1 cumulative effects in Table 13.45   Open ▸ .

Enhanced Scenario

221. As per the Baseline scenario above, under the Enhanced scenario there is negligible change in the potential cumulative impacts on employment in construction activities at Scotland level between Tier 1 and Tiers 2–4.
222. The significance of the Tiers 2–4 cumulative effects for Scotland under the Enhanced scenario are unchanged from those set out for Tier 1.

Operation and Maintenance Phase

223. There is negligible change in the potential cumulative impacts on employment in operation and maintenance activities at the socio-economics local study area and Scotland level between Tier 1 and Tiers 2–4. Therefore, the significance of the Tiers 2–4 cumulative effects for the socio-economics local study area and Scotland are unchanged from those set out for Tier 1.

Decommissioning Phase

224. The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. It is currently anticipated that onshore infrastructure would be retained and repurposed, and offshore structures above seabed level will be removed, subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts.
225. On this basis the magnitude of effects is expected to be significantly lower than those set out for the construction phase under the Baseline and Enhanced scenarios.
226. On the basis of currently available evidence, it is concluded the significance of Tiers 2–4 cumulative effects for the decommissioning phase will be of no greater than minor beneficial significance across the socio-economics local study area and Scotland. This is not significant in EIA terms.

Impact on GVA (£) (including supply chain)

Tier 1

Construction Phase

227. The potential Tier 1 cumulative impacts on GVA in manufacturing/supply and construction/installation activities under the Baseline procurement scenario are set out in Table 13.54   Open ▸ . This will create opportunities to both safeguard existing GVA output and facilitate new GVA output.

Table 13.54: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) on GVA in Construction Activities – Scotland

Magnitude of Impact

228. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions is set out in Table 13.55   Open ▸ .

Table 13.55: Comparison of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase GVA Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – Scotland

229. The magnitude of Tier 1 cumulative impacts for Scotland is set out in Table 13.56   Open ▸ .

Table 13.56: Magnitude of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase GVA Impacts – Scotland

Note: Assigned values from Table 13.9   Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the Receptor

230. As per section 13.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for Scotland is assessed as high.

Significance of the Effect

231. The significance of effect for Scotland are set out in Table 13.57   Open ▸ .

Table 13.57: Significance of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase GVA Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) – Scotland

232. At Scotland level, the magnitude of Tier 1 cumulative impacts is deemed to be medium (beneficial) and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. Tier 1 cumulative effects will, therefore, be of moderate to major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Enhanced Scenario

233. The assessment set out above has been undertaken on the Baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken for the Enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (Volume 4, Appendix 13.2). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial impacts are greater.
234. The potential Tier 1 Cumulative impacts on GVA manufacturing/supply and construction/installation activities under the Enhanced procurement scenario are set out in Table 13.58   Open ▸ . An equivalent Enhanced scenario is also available for the Tier 1 project, which has also been adopted here.

Table 13.58: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts (Enhanced Procurement Scenario) on GVA in Construction Activities – Scotland

Magnitude of Impact

235. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions is set out in Table 13.59   Open ▸ .

Table 13.59: Comparison of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase GVA Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – Scotland

236. The magnitude of Tier 1 cumulative impacts for Scotland is set out in Table 13.60   Open ▸ .

Table 13.60: Magnitude of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase GVA Impacts – Scotland

Note: Assigned values from Table 13.9   Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the Receptor

237. As per section 13.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for Scotland is assessed as high.

Significance of the Effect

238. The significance of effect for Scotland are set out in Table 13.61   Open ▸ .

Table 13.61: Significance of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase GVA Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) – Scotland

239. Compared to the Baseline scenario, there is a substantial increase in the Tier 1 cumulative impacts assessed during the construction phase under the Enhanced scenario at Scotland level. The quantitative assessment indicates an increase from moderate to major (beneficial) to major (beneficial) significance of effects at this level. The increase in GVA impacts are judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects.
240. Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics national study area level the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be high (beneficial) and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will be of major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.