6. Progress against policy commitments

6.1. The offshore wind pipeline

  1. TCE publish project listings on a quarterly basis, the most recent of which [87] was published in July 2022. The listings include all offshore wind projects which have been granted seabed rights through either TCE Allocation Rounds (covering English and Welsh territorial waters) or CES leasing rounds (e.g. ScotWind). National Grid's Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) Register [16] also provides an early view of potential future generation projects, however a number of projects listed on the TEC Register have not yet been successful in securing seabed rights for their development.  We therefore use the TCE Project Listing as a view of the future pipeline of projects, and assume that the small number of projects included in the Project Listings but not identifiable on the TEC register will be successful in securing TEC in due course.
  2. However neither the TEC Register nor the TCE Project Listing indicates confirmed generation capacities for projects not yet commissioned, nor does it seek to imply or impose restrictions on the capacities of generation of particular technologies which may be constructed and connected at particular locations.
  3. The inclusion of a project in any ‘future project pipeline’ – for example, a list of projects which have applied for a DCO, the pipeline included in the TEC Register or TCE Project Listings – does not indicate a commitment by or obligation on the Applicant actually to deliver that project at all, or if it does, at a particular generation capacity.
  4. As stated by the Scottish Government: “It is worth noting ... that there are a number of factors that mean that projects consented in the pipeline may not progress to commissioning” [14].
  5. It is therefore not the case that the ambitions of the Sector Deal, nor the newly adopted government policy, will certainly be met by those projects currently under consideration by developers. Within this context, the importance of all offshore wind projects currently under development, to the achievement of government policy and pledges, is clear. Without the Project, it is very possible that delivery of the Sector Deal and the 2030 ambitions of both the Scottish government and the UK government may fall short.
  6. TCE Project Listings categorises projects according to their stage of development. The categories are: Fully Commissioned; Committed - Under Construction; Committed - Government Support On Offer; Under Development – Consented; Under Development - In Planning; Pre-Planning and Future.
  7. The Project is listed on TCE’s Project Listings as being at the Pre-Planning stage with capacity 4.1GW. National Grid’s TEC register currently lists the Project as connecting as follows: 2026: 1.5GW; 2027: 0.9GW (both at Branxton) and 2031: 1.8GW (at Blyth).

6.2. Scotland's 2030 Renewable Sources Target

  1. The Scottish Energy Strategy (2017) [23] establishes targets for 2030 to supply the equivalent of 50% of the energy for Scotland’s heat, transport and electricity consumption from renewable sources; and to increase by 30% the productivity of energy use across the Scottish economy.
  2. The following analysis seeks to understand the role of the Project in meeting the Scottish 2030 Renewable Sources Target.  To do this, two scenarios are presented.
  • Scenario 1 extrapolates forwards the historical rate of reduction in energy consumption which achieved the 2015 energy productivity result and therefore models a 30% energy productivity improvement in 2030 vs. a 2015 baseline.
  • Scenario 2 holds energy consumption flat against a 2019 baseline. Importantly, the formulation of Scotland's energy productivity target does not strictly imply that Scenario 2 misses the 2030 energy productivity target but instead would require greater value earned per MWh consumed than would be the case if energy consumption reduced as it did over the period 2005 - 2015. Indeed, the successful deployment of electricity-based heat and transport solutions would increase Scottish electricity demand, and Scenario 2 may therefore present a scenario of more rapid and successful progress towards Scottish Net Zero 2045 goals than a scenario in which demand reduces.
  1. Both scenarios assume that all Other Low-Carbon generation capacity which is already built (with the exception of Hunterston and Torness nuclear power stations) continues to operate until 2030.
  2. Figure 6‑1 shows Scenario 1, i.e. Scotland's heat, transport and electricity gross consumption from 2013 to 2019 (actuals) and a forecast of 2020 to 2030, assuming that total consumption decreases in the next decade at the same rate as it decreased in the 2010s. Also charted, is the anticipated electricity generated from onshore wind, offshore wind (excluding the Project) and other low carbon and renewable sources, using the assumption that projects listed on the TCE Project Listings are deployed in line with their associated grid connection dates from the TEC Register [16]. Load factors (which convert installed capacity (MW) to annual generation (TWh) have been derived from Scottish Government publications and National Grid industry data.
  3. The orange dashed line in Figure 6-1 shows the 2030 target of 50% of anticipated gross energy demand (in 2030). The dark blue, brown and green lines show the cumulative anticipated supply from Other Low-Carbon, Onshore Wind and Offshore Wind assets respectively, generating from the dates listed in the current TEC Register. Other Low-Carbon capacity includes nuclear generation from Hunterston and Torness nuclear power stations. Hunterston closed in January 2022 and EDF has recently announced that Torness is now expected to close in 2028 [74]. Existing nuclear generation in Scotland will not contribute to achieving the 2030 target.
  4. Figure 6‑1 shows that the energy generated by projected onshore wind and low-carbon generation assets should be sufficient to meet Scotland’s 2030 Renewable Sources Target, assuming that Scottish energy demand continues to reduce as it has done previously. Total energy consumption in Scotland reduced by 16% from 2005 to 2015, and at the same time energy productivity increased by 31%.
  5. Figure 6‑2 shows an alternate scenario in which Scottish energy demand does not reduce in the 2030 timeframe.  The orange dashed line in Figure 6‑2 is higher than that in Figure 6‑1, and both offshore wind and onshore wind projected capacity is required to meet Scotland’s 2030 Renewable Sources Target.

 

Figure 6-1:
Scotland Energy Projection to 2030: Scenario 1


Figure 6‑1: Scotland Energy Projection to 2030: Scenario 1


[Author analysis]

Figure 6-2:
Scotland Energy Projection to 2030: Scenario 2

Figure 6‑2: Scotland Energy Projection to 2030: Scenario 2

[Author analysis]

 

  1. Figure 6‑1 and Figure 6‑2 show that if all projects listed in TCE Project Listings and National Grid’s TEC Register as commissioning in or before 2030 are delivered, then even without the Project delivered at 4.1GW capacity, Scotland's 2030 renewable sources target is achievable, whether demand continues to reduce or not. However an analysis of original estimated installed capacity at the point of lease grant, compared to TCE data on delivered capacity, shows that historically, the attrition rate for offshore wine projects has been around 30%.  This analysis covers projects which have either delivered, or been abandoned, across a total estimate of 22GW of potential capacity across Allocation Rounds 1, 2, 3, Scottish Territorial Waters and Round 1&2 Extension round of which  has been delivered. Therefore assuming a 100% success rate for future new projects may be overly ambitious.
  2. If the Project was not consented at 4.1GW capacity, a success rate of 57% of the capacity of all Scottish low carbon projects currently listed on the TEC Register, would be required for Scotland to achieve its 2030 energy productivity target (Scenario 1). The percentage success rate has been calculated via the anticipated annual energy generation from the capacity installed. By consenting the Project at 4.1GW, the required success rate under demand Scenario 1 for projects not yet built would need to be 40%, i.e. approximately two-thirds of the required success rate if the Project was not consented. In Scenario 1, consenting the Project therefore significantly reduces the risk of Scotland falling short of its 2030 renewable sources target.
  3. If total Scottish energy consumption follows Scenario 2 and the Project was not consented at 4.1GW, then because of higher demand, the required success rate for low-Carbon projects (excluding the Project) to achieve Scotland's 2030 renewable sourcing target would be higher, at 77% - i.e. attrition would need to be lower than the historical average achieved rate of 30%. By consenting the Project at 4.1GW, the required success rates under Scenario 2 for projects not yet built would be lower, at 62%. This is an important analysis because the trajectory of total energy demand in future years is not yet known and therefore planning for success on a conservative basis is prudent.
  4. This analysis assumes 2.3GW of connection capacity is operational before 2030, the connection point for 1.8GW into Blyth currently being available from 2031. It is therefore a conservative analysis. However it is the project’s ambition, and also in like with UK Government ambition as set out in the BESS, to explore opportunities with NGESO to bring this second connection point forwards into the 2020s. (See Section 7.9 following for more detail).
  5. Importantly not only does a lower required success rate manifest as a greater likelihood of reaching the policy target, protecting against the late or reduced delivery of projects on the current pipeline, but it also manifests as a greater opportunity for over-delivery against the target, and therefore the opportunity to accelerate decarbonisation in Scotland over the legal emissions targets as amended by Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019. This is relevant because of the greater ambition shown by the UK Government in increasing the capacity of operational offshore wind farms in the to 50GW by 2030 – and Scottish sites will be an incredibly important part of reaching that ambition.  Greater capacities of low carbon generation will also deliver deeper decarbonisation of underlying electricity consumption and also will provide greater confidence in the deployment of new technology to decarbonise heat, transport and industrial demand through the creation of a significant portfolio of low carbon electricity generation assets.
  6. This analysis shows that while the Project is not essential for Scotland to achieve its 2030 renewable energy sourcing targets, delivery of the Project is beneficial for Scotland.
  7. In a scenario where energy consumption out turns above an extrapolation of historical demand reduction, without the Project, the success rate of future projects in moving from Pre-Planning Application stage to Built stage would need to be higher than has historically been seen in Scotland. However delivering the Project against its TEC Register schedule reduces the required success rate of other projects by c15% in both scenarios.
  8. Consenting the Project would provide a significant opportunity for Scotland to increase confidence in the delivery of its 2030 renewable sourcing target and provide a platform of low carbon electricity generation which would increase confidence in the deployment of technology to displace fossil fuels from heat, transport and industrial demand. By doing so, the Project would provide a unique and significant contribution to Scottish decarbonisation efforts.

6.3. Scotland's 2030 Offshore Wind Capacity Target

  1. The Scottish government's updated Climate Change Plan recommends increased investment in renewable energy as a sector-specific action to contribute to the delivery of its climate change targets. The adoption of electricity-based solutions, for example in heat and transport, which requires delivery of the large potential for renewables growth in Scotland, is a critical element in the chain of reducing consumer emissions [21]. There are also opportunities in Scotland for hydrogen to play an important role in decarbonising energy consumption. Large scale green hydrogen production requires large scale low carbon electricity generation to provide power for electrolysis. Further, hydrogen production and storage facilities would integrate with the electricity sector by providing the balancing and flexibility services which are anticipated to be required in future low carbon electricity systems. Offshore wind is a critical element of Scotland's climate change plan because of the significant natural resource potential available. Figure 6‑1 shows the importance of offshore wind, alongside other low carbon technologies, to meeting Scotland's anticipated energy consumption. The Scottish Offshore Wind Policy Statement [22] supports the development of between 8 and 11GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030.
  2. As previously mentioned, the TEC Register [16] provides a snapshot at a point in time, of current projects and their capacities and for future projects, both their capacities and their current estimated connection dates. However some offshore wind projects listed on the TEC Register do not relate to projects which have seabed rights from CES, or TCE (which are listed on [87]).  Seabed rights are a mandatory pre-requisite for project development.
  3. Offshore wind generation schemes in Scotland can only be developed through the mechanism put in place by CES for leasing areas of the seabed in a structured and timely way. All projects currently holding seabed leases, including those won in the recent ScotWind round, are already listed on the TEC register, therefore any other offshore wind projects which are currently under development must be relying on subsequent ScotWind leasing round(s) to secure seabed leases and can be assumed not to have yet secured a grid connection agreement.
  4. Therefore the following analysis excludes any offshore wind farm projects with connection dates before 2033 which do not have seabed rights. This puts their development “behind” projects which already have seabed rights and a grid connection agreement.
  5. TCE Project Listings [87] lists 1.9GW of built offshore wind in Scotland, with a further 3.9GW of Consented and/or Committed projects which are currently scheduled to deliver before 2025. These projects include Neart na Gaoithe (0.4GW), Seagreen Phase 1 (1.1GW), Inch Cape (1.1GW), Moray West (0.9GW) and Seagreen Phase 1A (0.4GW). No other offshore wind farms are yet consented in Scottish waters, and importantly none others are currently listed as being in the planning process in TCE’s project listings. The Project is the only Scottish Project with seabed rights with a grid connection agreement connecting before 2030 (2.3GW) with a further 1.8GW currently connecting in 2031 with ambitions to bring the connection date forwards. In addition, 3.7GW of ScotWind sites are listed with connection agreements effective from 2033 although others may have similar connection dates which have not yet made it to the TEC Register. See Section 7.8 following for more detail on connecting ScotWind sites.
  6. There may be other offshore wind projects in Scotland which are not yet listed on the TEC Register. The technical and commercial risks associated with the development of any such projects should not be underestimated. Subsequent steps in their development include securing grid connection agreements, securing a seabed lease, securing funding and planning consent, construction and commissioning. Any offshore wind projects under development which are not already listed on the TEC Register will therefore be highly unlikely to deliver first power before 2030 and therefore will not contribute to Scotland's 2030 offshore wind capacity target.
  7. Therefore any developments which make significant contributions to meeting the target capacity in the timeframe required are necessary developments. However developments which are better placed to meet the urgent need for low carbon electricity generation are more beneficial for Scotland and should therefore attract a greater weight in proportion with that benefit. The Project benefits from already being significantly advanced in environmental studies, feasibility studies and other preparations ahead of making an application for planning consent. The Project is therefore better placed to deliver significantly earlier than those other developments, whether they are listed on the TEC Register or not, and therefore is more necessary than other projects to the achievement of Scotland's 2030 Offshore Wind Capacity Target.
  8. In order to meet Scotland's Offshore Wind installed capacity target, between 8 and 11GW of offshore wind must be commissioned before 2030, noting that 11GW is a target and not a limit to Scottish installed offshore wind capacity in 2030. Figure 6‑3 shows that the Project will play a critical contribution to Scotland's offshore wind project pipeline. Without it, Scotland will not meet its lower target of 8GW of offshore wind capacity (red dotted line), and the 11GW target (red dashed line) is unachievable unless project timelines are brought forwards ahead of their current grid connection dates.
  9. By consenting the Project, Scotland will meet the 8GW threshold, and will be progressing towards the 11GW target with the connection of the Project’s 1.8GW link to Blyth in 2031 (the Cambois Connection) followed in 2033 by the development of other offshore wind projects (assuming they are consented) which are currently in the Pre-Planning Application stage. It is important to note that 11GW is a target, not a limit, for installed offshore wind capacity in Scotland in 2030 and therefore opportunities to bring forwards any or all of the 1.8GW capacity and ScotWind projects (with connection dates currently in the early 2030s) should be pursued. Being well placed to deliver the target increases the opportunity to exceed the target (and so bring forward decarbonisation benefits) but also de-risks Scotland's ability actually to deliver the target itself. The Scottish Energy Strategy describes Scotland's approach to the decarbonisation as being both confident and ambitious while remaining focussed on “low or no regrets options” and enabling the possibility of exceeding 2030 targets through the consent and delivery of the Project aligns with that approach.


Figure 6-3:
Current capacity (GW) and connection date of offshore wind projects in Scotland

Figure 6‑3: Current capacity (GW) and connection date of offshore wind projects in Scotland

Including the Project (blue) [Author analysis]

 

  1. The provision of seabed leases to support 24.8GW of offshore capacity through ScotWind against a proposed 10GW is an example of the confident and ambitious approach taken by CES in the fight against climate change. The 2020s is the decade in which to set in motion the wheels of many projects which have potential to deliver decarbonisation in the 2030s and beyond. However it is also the decade in which to deliver those low and no regrets projects which are critical to reducing carbon emissions as early as possible. This will avoid the additional burden caused by late delivery of such projects, on the development pipeline for the 2030s and beyond. Consenting the Project is consistent with that approach.
  2. All offshore wind projects currently listed on TCE’s Project Listings have important potential with respect to the contribution they may make to achieving Scottish climate change targets. This Statement of Need does not seek to justify or promote the exclusion of any specific projects from the future generation mix. However some projects listed may be less likely to progress through to commissioning than others, and other projects which do progress may not achieve the timeframes and/or capacities currently proposed.
  3. Consenting the Project is essential to meet Scotland's Offshore Wind Policy Statement low 2030 installed capacity target (8GW) and is therefore essential in order to keep open the possibility for Scotland to meet its higher 2030 target (11GW). If the Project was to achieve consent, it would be able to play an essential role in Scotland's decarbonisation efforts. Consenting the Project would be fully compatible with all aspects of current Scottish energy strategy.

6.4. The UK's 2030 Offshore Wind Sector Deal Target

  1. The UK Offshore Wind Sector Deal [27] marked a significant deepening of the partnership between the government and the offshore wind sector, reinforcing the aims of the government’s Industrial Strategy to build a Britain fit for the future. The Deal aims to drive the transformation of offshore wind generation, making it an integral part of a low-cost, low carbon, flexible grid system, and a key milestone in furthering the UK's ambition to maximise the advantages for UK industry from the global shift to clean growth. Originally targeting 30GW of offshore wind in UK waters by 2030, the Prime Minister's Ten Point Plan [45] increased that ambition to 40GW (in recognition of the criticality of offshore wind as a source of renewable energy for the UK's growing economy) and including 1GW of innovative floating offshore wind. The British Energy Security Strategy included an ambition to increase the capacity of operational offshore wind in the UK to 50GW by 2030 [108].
  2. Figure 6‑4 shows that the Project has an important role to play in achieving the UK's 2030 Offshore Wind Sector Deal target capacity. TCE Project Listings includes 12.3GW of built offshore wind in the UK, with a further 8GW under construction. These include Dogger Bank (3.6GW), Hornsea 2 (1.4GW), Sofia (1.4GW) and Neart na Gaoithe and Seagreen Phase 1 (0.4GW and 1.1GW respectively) in Scotland. Hornsea 2 is currently commissioning therefore partially operational.
  3. Additionally, 12.4GW of capacity has been consented but is not yet under construction. These projects are all currently scheduled to deliver before the end of 2030, and include the Scottish projects listed in Section 6.3. Other projects include Hornsea Project Three (3GW), East Anglia Three (1.5GW), Norfolk Boreas (1.8GW), Norfolk Vanguard (1.8GW), East Anglia One North and East Anglia Two (each 1GW)
  4. Installed and operational capacity from projects which have already received their consent is therefore anticipated to be 32.7GW by the end of 2030, subject to all currently indicated capacity being fully delivered at the current grid connection date.
  5. TCE’s Project Listing also includes 3.4GW of projects currently in planning (including Awel y Môr and Hornsea 4) Other projects include the ScotWind round winners, and also projects which secured seabed lease options from TCE in England and Wales as part of Allocation Round 4. The total pipeline of projects with seabed leases which have not yet formally entered planning, consists of 33 projects with 44.1GW of potential capacity. Grid connection dates for these projects, with the exception of the first 2.3GW of the Project, are largely scheduled for the 2030s. The projects cover a range of technologies, including extensions to existing (operational) seafloor mounted offshore wind farms, for example Rampion and Dudgeon, although it should be noted that the extension at Race Bank was dropped from TCE Extensions round, a demonstration of why registers generally could be overly optimistic as forecasts of future capacity. Other technologies at the Pre-Planning Application stage include offshore wind located in international waters (e.g. Icewind Hinkley Point, 1GW); projects connected to more than one market (e.g. Codling Park, 1GW); and at least three floating offshore wind projects currently listed with 1GW capacity.
  6. New technology, be that floating offshore wind, connection cables covering thousands of kilometres or generation capacity connected to more than one market, carries associated technical and commercial risk. By contrast, sea floor mounted offshore wind capacity located close to shore and in areas already developed (such as the Project), present lower-risk opportunities for development. Therefore the Project and others like it are both necessary and urgent because of the significant contribution they will make to meeting the target capacity needed in the timeframe required and with lower risk than that associated with projects utilising emerging technologies.

Figure 6-4:
Current capacity (GW) and connection date of offshore wind projects in UK

Figure 6‑4: Current capacity (GW) and connection date of offshore wind projects in UK

Including the Project (blue) [Author analysis]

 

  1. Offshore wind generation schemes in non-Scottish UK waters can only be developed through the mechanism put in place by TCE for leasing areas of the seabed in a structured and timely way. Any projects not currently holding a seabed lease, including those listed on National Grid’s TEC Register [16] must therefore be relying on subsequent Crown Estate leasing round(s) to secure seabed rights.
  2. Figure 6‑4 shows the cumulative operational capacity of offshore wind in the UK assuming all projects currently listed are delivered consistent with their current connection dates and capacities, 32.7GW of offshore wind, with connection dates before 2030, has either been consented and is on its way to becoming operational, or is already operational in the UK. Therefore if construction and connection schedules are adhered to, the original UK Sector Deal target of 30GW offshore wind operational by 2030 will be achieved.
  3. In order to achieve the enhanced 40GW target if the Project was not consented, 53% of capacity in planning or in pre-planning with a connection date before 2030 must be delivered. By consenting the Project, the project success rate for other projects could reduce to 33% and the 40GW target could be met. The Project therefore provides a significant opportunity to de-risk the UK’s achievement of its offshore wind capacity target for 2030.
  4. The British Energy Security ambition of 50GW by 2030 requires all projects currently in planning to be delivered according to their current connection dates and requires some other projects to be brought forwards into the 2020s. Delivering these projects, including the Project, and bringing forward to 2029 the connection date for the second phase of the Project, would reach the 50GW UK ambition. Although a historical industry attrition rate of 30% (as described in Section 6.3) would make the target unachievable unless project connection dates and consenting progress were brought forwards.
  5. Consenting the Project will make a significant contribution to the delivery of the UK's enhanced 2030 Offshore Wind Sector Deal capacity target and 2030 BESS ambition, and in doing so will make important contributions to reducing further global temperature increases by producing large amounts of low carbon electricity and therefore reducing the need for carbon intensive electricity generation to meet demand.

6.5. Renewable Sourcing in Scotland beyond 2030

  1. 2030 is an important stepping stone on the way to Net Zero 2045 and Scotland's 2030 Renewable energy sourcing target is likely to be progressively raised towards 2045, when it is foreseen that Scottish renewable energy generation will significantly outstrip demand, to ensure required levels of security of low carbon supply as well as enable the continued export of low carbon power to the wider UK and adjacent interconnected markets, as part of a collaborative international solution to climate change.
  2. The full supply of final energy consumed from low carbon sources, as will be required in or before 2045 in Scotland, requires a very different scale of solution to achieving a 50% supply of final energy consumed from renewable sources (as was illustrated in Figure 6‑1 and Figure 6‑2). Low carbon generation must be capable of meeting average demand and peak demand, with a headroom for planned and unplanned maintenance as well as seasonal or weather driven surges in demand or reductions in supply. Scotland's Climate Change Plan Update relies on a substantial contribution from greenhouse gas removal technology on its pathway to 2030 and beyond, through the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). In 2021 the UK Government announced that the proposed Scottish CCS cluster is a reserve project, behind two Northern English “Track 1” clusters. Although it is expected that further CCS clusters will follow, lower current levels of support for a Scottish CCS cluster may impact on the timing of the development and delivery of CCS infrastructure. The consequence is that through to and beyond 2030, more carbon reduction must be achieved by substituting carbon-intensive fuels for renewable sources, rather than removing carbon when carbon-intensive energy has been consumed. Section 5.5 describes the levels of supply anticipated to be required to meet full demand across the UK in the 2050 timeframe.
  3. It is therefore important to look beyond 2030 to assess the contribution specific projects will make to strategic aims. The enduring benefit brought by the Project to future Scottish renewable energy sourcing performance and securing Scottish 2045 Net Zero targets, is illustrated in Figure 6‑5. Author assumptions have overlaid data from the National Grid TEC Register to derive a risked estimate of future renewable energy sourcing against demand, based on historical experience.
  4. All projects have economic lives, and at their end may be either decommissioned or repowered. Scotland currently has 8.7GW of installed operational onshore wind capacity [14], but in 2019, Renewable UK [86] predicted that by 2040, up to 5GW of that onshore wind capacity may be lost as assets reach the end of their 25-year lives. Repowering may be possible in some or all cases, and their analysis forecasts that onshore wind installed capacity in Scotland in 2040 could range from 4.3GW (low repowering) to 10.4GW (optimum repowering) with an intermediate forecast of 5.8GW (intermediate repowering), not including the further development of new assets. Wind Europe's annual trends and statistics report shows that the total capacity of projects repowered in Europe since 2009 is lower than the total capacity of projects decommissioned over the same timeframe. Therefore operational experience is that without the addition of new assets, installed wind capacity decreases over time [88]. Figure 6‑5 includes onshore wind decommissioning rates which match Renewable UK's intermediate forecast levels.
  5. Offshore wind generation schemes in Scotland can only be developed through the mechanism put in place by CES for leasing areas of the seabed in a structured and timely way. All projects currently holding seabed leases are already listed on the TEC register, critically this includes 4.1GW of capacity associated with the Project and those projects which secured seabed leases in the January 2022 ScotWind Lease Round 1 result publications. Any other offshore wind projects which are currently under development must be relying on subsequent ScotWind leasing round(s) to secure their seabed rights.
  6. CES currently anticipates subsequent rounds to follow ScotWind, and it is likely that any lease option areas made available to bidders in any future rounds will be located in deeper water, and/or further offshore, than areas already leased or offered through ScotWind.
  7. Figure 6‑5 illustrates a future scenario for Scottish energy consumption and low carbon supply, assuming asset decommissioning and development success rates for different types of low carbon generation projects.
  8. Onshore wind decommissioning has been included in line with the intermediate Renewable UK forecast, taking effect from 2029 onwards. Onshore wind decommissioning therefore reduces the net gain in renewable generation capacity associated with developing new assets in the 2030s and 2040s.
  9. Further analysis by Renewable UK [86] concludes that 45% of Scottish repowering projects which have been formally considered have not reached commercial operation. A success factor of 55% has therefore been applied to all onshore developments which are currently in Pre-Planning Application stage but offshore projects and other low carbon developments have been adjusted by the historical 70% success rate derived from TCE data.
  10. A representative success factor of 60% has been applied to offshore wind projects connecting beyond 2030. The lower success factor (than the 70% derived from TCE data) recognises the higher risks associated with these projects:
  • Some seabed leases have not yet been identified or secured;
  • Technologies may be required which have not yet tested at scale;
  • Projects may be located in challenging physical and biological environments (for the turbines, the cable route or both); and
  • Development cost forecasts may therefore be higher, and/or less certain, for projects which exhibit one of more of the above factors.
  1. Any or all of the above factors may reduce the chances of an individual project being progressed through to delivery. Conversely, both the Offshore Wind Sector Deal and Scottish Offshore Wind Policy Statement include measures which may, if successfully applied, improve the chances of success of future projects.
  2. 27 offshore wind projects, totalling 37.9GW of capacity are currently listed on the TEC Register as connecting in 2033 with a development status of “Scoping”. Some of these entries are related to successful ScotWind bids, others to unsuccessful bids, and others still are potentially “placeholder” applications for grid connections in anticipation of future offshore seabed leasing rounds. National Grid have declared a “TEC Amnesty” where projects which are no longer being progressed can release their TEC without penalty however the impact of that amnesty period on improving data quality in the TEC Register will not be known until the process concludes in late 2022. Whether or not all or any of these projects will deliver - and if they do, then when - will depend on the success or otherwise of those projects listed on TCE’s Project Listings and National Grid’s TEC Register (high levels of attrition in Scottish offshore wind projects is discussed in Section 3.7) and for those not listed, the timing and capacity available in subsequent CES seabed leasing rounds. Figure 6‑5 assumes a phased delivery of 50% of these projects connecting from 2033 at a delivery rate of circa 2.3GW/year. . As a comparison, the connection rate targeted by UK projects already approved and listed in the TEC Register as connecting between 2022 and 2031 averages 1.6GW per year.
  3. Figure 6‑5 also assumes a continued increase in energy productivity through to 2045, achieved by reducing Scottish final energy consumption assuming an increase in energy productivity of 30% (2015 to 2030) and a continued increase in productivity at the same rate through to 2045.
  4. Figure 6‑5 demonstrates likely levels of low carbon generation over the period to 2045 as electrification progresses and projects on the development pipeline either mature or drop away. By applying the assumptions described above to the capacity forecasts from relevant registers, it is shown that without the Project, future identified projects may generate just enough low carbon power to meet, on average, the forecast Scottish final energy consumption assuming an increase in energy productivity of 30% (2015 to 2030) and through to 2045. During periods of lower wind (as was experienced across the UK in 2021), or of higher demand (e.g. cold, still winter days) this scenario would not provide Scotland with sufficient low carbon electricity to meet demand. Section 5.5 describes the anticipated relationship between renewable generation capacity and electricity consumption. In future Net Zero consistent scenarios, the installed capacity of renewable generation will be approximately three times the average level of demand, or twice the peak level of demand on the system. If Scotland's energy system was isolated from the UK-wide system, this would imply the need for approximately 27GW of renewable generation by 2030, rising to ~50GW in the 2050 timeframe.
  5. It is clear from Figure 6‑5 that in order to meet 100% of consumption from low carbon sources by 2045 or earlier, significantly more renewable generation and other low carbon energy supply technologies will be required to come forwards in the 2030+ timeframe. Delivering the Project would provide an additional c.16TWh of low carbon energy each year post delivery, supporting capacity margins as electrification of final consumption increases during the 2030s.
  6. Consenting the Project will significantly de-risk future low carbon energy supply in Scotland, and in doing so reduce the reliance Scotland must place on as yet unproven, and currently unfunded technologies, such as CCUS located in Scotland, to deliver 2045 commitments.
  7. Scotland's energy system is also fully integrated into the GB-wide electricity system, and the delivery of offshore wind projects in Scotland contribute capacity to the growing GB offshore wind portfolio, thereby also delivering the 2030 Offshore Wind Sector Deal ambition and enabling the further deployment of offshore wind beyond 2030 to sufficient capacities to enable future Net Zero commitments to be met. It is vital that the Project, because of its potential capacity and deliverability, is consented to enable it to be a part of Scotland's and GB's, offshore wind fleet to enable Net Zero.

 

Figure 6-5:
Scotland Energy Projection to 2045


Figure 6‑5: Scotland Energy Projection to 2045

[Author analysis]

 

6.6. Conclusions on progress against policy commitments

  1. Climate change poses a severe and heightened risk to the planet. Immediate and concerted and coordinated action is needed to reduce emissions and so limit global temperature rise to 1.5C in the longer term. Scotland's 2030 target is committed in law, as is the UK wide target along with the stepping stones on the way to achieving Net Zero.
  2. Decarbonisation does not stop in 2030 but continues with urgency until stable global temperatures are achieved, and because of the cumulative warming effect of atmospheric carbon, every moments delay makes that achievement more difficult and potentially further into the future.
  3. Without urgent and meaningful action now, actions in the future must deliver greater levels of decarbonisation in order to limit temperature rises to the legal obligations in the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Climate Change Act 2008 (as amended), the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 and the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019.
  4. Decarbonisation is already the global challenge of our lifetime, but our efforts, and those of future generations, will need to accelerate if urgent and meaningful actions are not set in motion now so that they can deliver in the critical 2020s and beyond. Therefore the benefit of the Project should be assessed both in terms of its contribution to Scottish and UK 2030 targets but also its contribution to the longer-term Net Zero commitments by no later than 2045 for Scotland and by no later than 2050 for the UK.
  5. Substantial weight should be attributed to the contribution that the Project would make towards meeting the national need for low carbon energy and the substantial contribution it would make towards the delivery of renewable energy, ultimately assisting with the decarbonisation of the economy in line with the UK’s legal obligations in the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Climate Change Act 2008 (as amended).
  6. The benefits of the Project, in particular its contribution of 4.1GW of renewable electricity to the urgent need to decarbonise electricity supply by deploying low carbon electricity generation in the UK, should be given significant weight in examination.
  7. The Project makes a significant contribution towards satisfying the need for offshore wind in both Scotland and the UK
  8. Consenting the Project would provide a significant opportunity for Scotland to increase confidence in the delivery of its 2030 renewable sourcing target and by doing so would provide a significant contribution to Scottish decarbonisation efforts.
  9. Consenting the Project is necessary for Scotland to meet its low Offshore Wind Policy Statement 2030 installed capacity target (8GW) and provides the opportunity, if grid connection dates are brought forwards on the second phase of the development as well as other projects, to contribute to achieving the higher (11GW) target and in doing so will enable the Project to play an essential role in Scotland's decarbonisation efforts.
  10. Consenting the Project will make a significant contribution to the delivery of the UK's 2030 Offshore Wind Sector Deal capacity target, and in doing will make important contributions to reducing further global temperature increases by producing large amounts of low carbon electricity and therefore reducing the need for carbon intensive electricity generation to meet demand.  The Project is essential if the UK is to meet the ambition set out in the BESS of delivering 50GW of operational offshore wind in the UK by 2030.
  11. Consenting the Project will significantly de-risk future low-Carbon energy supply in Scotland, and in doing so reduce the reliance Scotland must place on as yet unproven, and currently unfunded technologies, such as CCUS located in Scotland, to deliver 2045 commitments.
  12. The Project is entirely consistent with the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 and the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 and Scotland's legally binding indicative NDC (2020). The ongoing need for the Project is established as it is in line with the UK and Scottish needs for offshore wind as part of the transition to a low carbon economy. Granting consent for the Project would be compatible with current climate legislation and policy position.