18.7.3.              GVA

74. The definitions of construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning GVA impact industries on the basis of SIC07 divisions are set out in volume 3, appendix 18.4.
75. All industries GVA in Scotland in 2019 was approximately £147 billion (ONS, 2021e). Between 2015–2019, GVA in Scotland increased by +£16 billion (ONS, 2021e). This equates to an average annual growth of 2.9%. UK annual average growth over the same period was 3.7%.
76. The Invergordon socio-economics local study area has the smallest GVA output across all industries, primarily as a result of its more rural economy focused on ‘lower value’ activities (value in terms of GVA, not importance). Rosyth socio-economics local study area has by far the largest employment base – as well as covering Edinburgh its 60 minute drive-time catchment includes other populous local authorities across the Central Belt, including Glasgow City and its surrounding local authorities.
77. Aberdeen and Montrose socio-economics local study areas each saw a decline in GVA output over the period 2015–2019. This is partly linked to the decline in offshore oil and gas activity, which is strongly represented in these areas. All other socio-economics local study areas saw an increase in GVA output over the period 2015–2019.
78. The figures for each socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area are presented in Table 18.9   Open ▸ .

Table 18.9: All Industries GVA and Change – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of regional gross value added (balanced) by industry: local authorities (ONS), 2022.

Note: negative values in parentheses.

79. Construction impact industries GVA output in Scotland in 2019 was approximately £27 billion. Between 2015–2019, construction impact industries GVA output in Scotland increased by £800 million. Operation and maintenance impact industries GVA output in Scotland in 2019 was approximately £19 billion. Between 2015–2019, operation and maintenance impact industries GVA output in Scotland increased by £500 million. Decommissioning impact industries GVA output in Scotland in 2019 was approximately £21 billion. Between 2015–2019, decommissioning impact industries GVA output in Scotland increased by £400 million (ONS, 2021).
80. With regards to construction and decommissioning impact industries, the Aberdeen socio-economics local study area has the largest GVA output. This is a result of the area’s economic heritage of a very strong presence in the offshore oil and gas industry, and consequent supply chain strengths in activities that could be positioned to participate in the offshore wind sector. In operation and maintenance impact industries, Rosyth socio-economic and tourism local study area has the largest GVA output by virtue of its extensive 60 minute drive time catchment area including both City of Edinburgh and Glasgow City local authorities.
81. Over the period 2015–2019, GVA output in construction impact industries has decreased in Aberdeen socio-economics local study area and increased in the remaining socio-economics local study areas.
82. Over the same period, GVA output in operation and maintenance impact industries has decreased in Aberdeen and Montrose socio-economics local study areas, and increased in most of the remaining socio-economics local study areas (level has remained constant in support harbours socio-economics local study area).
83. Over the same period, GVA output in decommissioning impact industries has decreased in Aberdeen socio-economics local study area and increased in the remaining socio-economics local study areas. 
84. The figures for each socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area are presented in Table 18.10   Open ▸ . Employment data is shown for port and harbour facilities under consideration for each phase[7].

Table 18.10: Construction, Operation and Maintenance, and Decommissioning Impact Industries GVA and Change – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of regional gross value added (balanced) by industry: local authorities (ONS), 2022.

Note: negative values in parentheses.

85. Whilst there is no agreed SIC based sector definition for offshore wind, a Scotland level study to estimate the total size of the sector, based on an ONS survey of businesses has been undertaken (FAI, 2021). Total direct, indirect and induced GVA supported by the offshore wind sector in Scotland in 2019 was estimated at £447 million (FAI). No equivalent data for socio-economics local study areas is available.

18.7.4.              Labour Market

86. Economic activity is a measure of those in employment or self-employment, as well as those actively looking for work. Economic inactivity is defined as people not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last four weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next two weeks. The ONS also reports on the rate of economically inactive individuals that want a job.
87. The economic activity rate in Scotland in 2019 was 77.5% (ONS, 2021a). The number of economically active individuals in Scotland increased by annual average of +0.1% between 2015–2019 (ONS, 2021a). 
88. The share of those who were economically inactive at the time who wanted a job was 20.4% (ONS, 2021a). The number of economically inactive individuals who want a job in Scotland decreased by –3.9% between 2015–2019 (ONS, 2021a).
89. The figures for each socio-economics local study area are presented in Table 18.11   Open ▸ . With the exception of the Rosyth socio-economics local study area (which is slightly below the Scotland average), all have higher economic activity rates than the Scotland average.

Table 18.11: Economic Activity Rate and Economically Inactive Individuals That Want a Job – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of Annual Population Survey (ONS).

90. The ONS Annual Population Survey uses the International Labour Organization’s (ILO) definition of ‘unemployment’ as follows: individuals without a job who are able to start work in the two weeks following their participation in the survey, and who had either looked for worked in the four weeks prior to survey, or were waiting to start a job they had already obtained. Unemployment rate is therefore the share of economically active individuals over the age of 16 years who are unemployed according to the ILO definition.
91. The number of unemployed individuals in Scotland in 2019 was 95,800 (ONS, 2021a).
92. The share of the total workforce that were unemployed was 3.5% (ONS, 2021a). The number of unemployed individuals in Scotland decreased by –40% between 2015–2019, at an average annual rate of –12% (ONS, 2021a).
93. The figures for each socio-economics local study areas are presented in Table 18.12   Open ▸ . Invergordon, Aberdeen, Montrose, Burntisland, Leith, and support harbours socio-economics local study areas all have lower unemployment rates than the Scotland average. Dundee and Methil socio-economics local study areas have higher unemployment rates than the Scotland average. Rosyth socio-economics local study area has the same unemployment rate as the Scotland average.

Table 18.12: Unemployed Individuals and Unemployment Rate – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of Annual Population Survey (ONS), 2022.

Note: negative values in parentheses.

18.7.5.              Housing, Accommodation and Local Services

94. Scotland’s population in 2019 was approximately 5.5 million (ONS, 2021c). This increased by approximately 90,000 over the period 2015–2019 at an average annual rate of +0.4%.
95. Methil, Burntisland and Rosyth socio-economics local study areas have the largest populations – as well as covering Edinburgh their 60 minute drive-time catchments include other populous local authorities across the Central Belt. Invergordon and support harbours socio-economics local study areas have the smallest populations by virtue of their more rural locations and catchment areas.
96. Burntisland, Rosyth, Leith, and support harbours socio-economics local study areas all saw an increase in population above the Scotland rate over the period 2015–2019. Invergordon, Dundee, and Methil socio-economics local study areas saw an increase in population over the period, but below the Scotland rate. Aberdeen and Montrose socio-economics local study areas are the only areas to have seen a decrease in population over the period 2015–2019.
97. The figures for each socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area are presented in Table 18.13   Open ▸ .

Table 18.13: Total Population and Population Change – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of Mid-Year Population Estimates (ONS), 2022.

Note: negative values in parentheses.

98. The National Records of Scotland provides data on Estimates of Households and Dwellings in Scotland. They provide useful inputs to a number of strategic planning outputs, including:

• informing local authorities about housing need and provision of services;
• information on housing in rural areas (including second homes and empty properties;
• providing a baseline for local projections of household numbers; and
• informing projections of future school rolls.
  99. This makes it a relevant and useful data source for informing the following baseline conditions that characterise this receptor:
  100. ‘Total dwellings’ is the total number of dwellings on the Council Tax valuation list. A ‘dwelling’ refers to the accommodation itself, for example a house or a flat and includes second homes that are not let out commercially. This data can provide the baseline for an area’s overall dwelling stock, which can then be used for assessing share of private rented dwellings and unoccupied dwellings.
  101. In 2019 Scotland had approximately 2.6 million dwellings (National Records of Scotland, 2021). This increased by approximately 80,000 over the period 2015–2019 at an average annual rate of +0.8%.
  102. Methil, Burntisland and Rosyth socio-economics local study areas have the largest dwelling stock by virtue of their 60 minute drive time catchments covering many similar local authority areas across the Central Belt. Invergordon and support harbours socio-economics local study areas have the smallest dwelling stocks by virtue of their more rural locations and catchment areas.
  103. Aberdeen, Montrose, Burntisland, Rosyth, Leith and support harbours socio-economics local study areas all saw an increase in dwelling stock above the Scotland rate over the period 2015–2019. Invergordon, Dundee and Methil socio-economics local study areas saw an increase in dwelling stock over the period, but below the Scotland rate. No socio-economics local study area saw a decrease in dwelling stock over the period.
  104. The figures for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area are presented in Table 18.14   Open ▸ .

Table 18.14: Total Dwellings and Dwelling Change – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of Estimates of Households and Dwellings in Scotland (National Records of Scotland).

105. Understanding an area’s private rented dwelling stock[8] can provide a useful profile of the type of accommodation that might be utilised by, for instance, temporary workers relocating to participate in construction phase activities.
106. In 2018, 371,000 dwellings were recorded within the private rented sector within the socio-economics national study area. This represented 14.2% of the total dwelling stock.
107. The absolute size of the private rented sector varies widely across the socio-economics local study areas, based on the varying scale of the areas and levels of urbanisation – as per Table 18.15   Open ▸ the private rented sector ranges from 14.2% to 19.0% at the local level.

Table 18.15: Total Dwellings in Private Rented Sector – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of Estimates of Households and Dwellings in Scotland (National Records of Scotland) and Stock Estimates by Tenure (Scottish Government, Housing Statistics).

108. ‘Unoccupied dwellings’ include unoccupied units that are exempt from Council Tax, and dwellings which are recorded on Council Tax systems as being long-term empty properties[9]. Understanding an area’s unoccupied dwelling stock can provide a useful profile of how easily (or not) an area might accommodate workers relocating to participate in construction, operation and maintenance, or decommissioning activities.
109. Scotland has approximately 85,000 unoccupied dwellings (National Records of Scotland, 2021) – this is around 3.2% of total dwelling stock. This increased by approximately 1,300 over the period 2015–2019 at an average annual rate of +1.9%.
110. Burntisland and Rosyth socio-economics local study areas have the largest stock of unoccupied dwellings by virtue of their 60 minute drive time catchments covering many similar local authority areas across the Central Belt. Invergordon and support harbours socio-economics local study areas have the smallest stocks of unoccupied dwellings by virtue of their more rural locations and catchment areas.
111. Invergordon, Aberdeen and Montrose socio-economics local study areas all saw an increase in unoccupied dwelling stock above the Scotland average annual rate over the period 2015–2019. Burntisland and Leith socio-economics local study areas saw an increase in unoccupied dwelling stock around the same level as the Scotland rate over the period 2015–2019. Dundee, Rosyth and support harbours socio-economics local study areas saw an increase in unoccupied dwelling stock over the period, but below the Scotland rate. Methil Socio-economics local study area saw a decrease in unoccupied dwelling stock over the period.
112. The figures for each socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area are presented in Table 18.6   Open ▸ .

Table 18.16: Total Unoccupied Dwellings and Unoccupied Dwelling Change – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of Estimates of Households and Dwellings in Scotland (National Records of Scotland)), 2022.

Note: negative values in parentheses.

113. In 2018, 371,000 dwellings were recorded within the private rented sector within the socio-economics national study area. This represented 14.2% of the total dwelling stock.
114. The absolute size of the private rented sector varies widely across the socio-economics local study areas, based on the varying scale of the areas and levels of urbanisation – as per Table 18.17   Open ▸ the private rented sector ranges from 14.2% to 19.0% at the local level. 

Table 18.17: Total Unoccupied Dwellings and Unoccupied Dwelling Change – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of Estimates of Households and Dwellings in Scotland (National Records of Scotland) and Stock Estimates by Tenure (Scottish Government, Housing Statistics), 2022.

Overnight accommodation

115. Impacts are likely to materialise upon tourism receptors at the local level. Visit Scotland is a key source of statistical data on the tourism sector. Visit Scotland tourism ‘regions’ do not map directly to the identified tourism local study area for this assessment. The Visit Scotland regions that have been mapped to the tourism local study area are set out as per volume 3, appendix 18.5.
116. The tourism sector is an important industry in terms of employment and GVA across the tourism local study area.
117. The figures for each tourism region (as defined by Visit Scotland) are presented in Table 18.18   Open ▸ .

Table 18.18: Tourism Sector Employment and GVA (2018) – by Tourism Region

Source: Visit Scotland, 2020; HJA analysis of BRES, 2022.

118. All parts of the tourism local study area are popular tourist destinations for overnight visitors. The figures for each tourism local study area are presented in Table 18.19   Open ▸ .

Table 18.19: Overnight Visits and Spend (2019) – by Tourism Region

Source: Visit Scotland, 2020.

119. There is some slack in tourism accommodation occupancy rates across the tourism local study area. Even during peak months of occupancy, there remains between 12%–21% vacancy in hotels across the tourism local study area.  
120. The figures for annual average and peak occupancy across a range of accommodation types across the tourism local study area are presented in Table 18.20   Open ▸ . The scale of variation over the period 2017-19 is also shown. This is measured as ±%point difference across the years. This shows the level of variation within occupancy levels over the three year period.

Table 18.20: Tourist Accommodation Occupancy Rates (2019) – by Tourism Region

Source: HJA analysis of Visit Scotland data (- where no data available).

* 2018 data as no 2019 figures available.

18.7.6.              Tourism and Recreation

Tourism

121. The Visit Scotland Visitor Experience Survey 2015/16 was completed to gain an understanding of the behaviour and experience of visitors to Scotland. When questioned on their motivation to travel to Scotland, Scenery and landscape was the most common reason given for travel to Scotland, with 50% of responses citing this as the main motivation for visiting. Scotland’s scenery and landscape was a more common response among European (71%) and long haul visitors (53%) than domestic travellers, where ‘closeness to home’ and ‘holidayed before and wanted to return’ were answers that ranked similarly to scenery and landscape. It was also the top driver for repeat visits, with 47% of respondents citing this as a reason for returning. The scenery and landscape in Scotland are a significant factor in attracting both domestic and international tourists and therefore is a valuable asset to the tourism economy in Scotland.
122. The more recent Visit Scotland survey Seas the Day: Exploring the appeal of Scotland’s coastal destinations for visitors (2021), offers an insight into what attracts tourists to coastal regions in Scotland. Visitors to coastal regions in Scotland are most likely to visit the south coast, with these areas attracting 29% of coastal trips between 2017 and 2019. The most popular activities during trips to the coast include active pursuits such swimming, sailing, water sports and adventure sports, which together make up 49% of visitors’ activities. Walking is also a popular activity, with 39% of visitors taking part in the activity during their trip.

Aberdeenshire

123. Aberdeenshire’s tourism offer includes the following:

• cycling and walking: Mountain biking is popular in the Cairngorms National Park, with road cycling also popular in the area. There are over 30 Munros and Corbetts in Aberdeenshire, attracting visiting walkers. The Lairig Ghru is one of Scotland’s most famous mountain passes, covering 19 miles of outstanding natural beauty from Braemar to Aviemore;
• golf: popular links golf courses such as Royal Aberdeen and Murcar are located along Aberdeenshire’s coastline, with around 35 parkland and heathland courses located inland;
• water sports: Surfing, diving, and sailing are all popular recreational activities on the Aberdeenshire coast;
• winter sports: Royal Deeside, on the edge of the Cairngorms National Park, is a popular location for winter sports enthusiasts wanting to participate in skiing and snowboarding;
• culture and arts: there is a wide variety of museums, art galleries, and theatres to cater to visitors. P&J Live, His Majesty’s Theatre, Music Hall, Lemon Tree, and The Barn all host large music events and musical theatre productions; and
• history and heritage: Old Aberdeen and Footdee (“Fittie") are popular ‘Old Towns’ that attract visitors.
  124. Based on the viewpoints set out in volume 2, chapter 15, the following viewpoints within the Seascape, Landscape and Visual Impact Assessment (SLVIA) study area are located in Aberdeenshire:

Representative day time viewpoints

• Johnshaven (1).

Night time viewpoints

• Johnshaven (1).
  125. Johnshaven (1) viewpoint is the only viewpoint within the SLVIA study area located in Aberdeenshire.

Angus

126. Angus’ tourism offer included the following:

• golf: ‘Carnoustie Country’ is a global golfing destination, with over 30 gold courses along the east coast of Scotland covering Angus, Dundee, Perth and Kinross, and Fife – all within an hour’s drive of the Carnoustie Championship Course. Montrose is the fifth oldest golf course in the world. Golf holidays are a popular option for visitors to the area;
• cycling and walking: Mountain biking is a popular recreational activity in Angus, as is walking; and
• fishing: visitors can enjoy river, loch, sea, and shore fishing across Angus.
  127. Based on the viewpoints set out in volume 2, chapter 15, the following viewpoints within the SLVIA study area are located in Angus:

Representative day time viewpoints

• Montrose (2).

Night time viewpoints

• Montrose (2).

Fife

128. Fife’s tourism offer includes the following:

• cycling and walking: 350 miles of dedicated cycle routes, and multiple mountain biking trails. Fife is included on several National Cycling Routes, including: Coast and Castles (1), River Forth (76), River Tay (766), and Clackmannanshire to Dunfermline (764). Fife Coastal Path and the Fife Pilgrim Way are popular walking routes;
• golf: Fife is a global golfing destination, with almost 50 courses available to play. This includes ‘the most famous golf course in the world’ – the Old Course at St Andrews;
• motorsports: Fife is home to Scotland’s national motorsport centre;
• fishing: reservoir, loch, river, and sea fishing are all available for visiting anglers;
• water sports: sailing and sea kayaking are popular activities off the coast of Fife;
• culture and arts: there is a variety of museums, art galleries, and theatres to cater to visitors; and
• history and heritage: Dunfermline Abbey, St Andrews Cathedral and Falkland Palace are popular tourist attractions.
  129. Based on the viewpoints set out in volume 2, chapter 15, the following viewpoints within the SLVIA study area are located in Fife:

Representative day time viewpoints

• St Andres Cathedral (3);
• Cambo Sands (4);
• Fife Ness (5);
• Crail (6); and
• Isle of May (23).

Night time viewpoints

• Fife Ness (5).

East Lothian

130. East Lothian’s tourism offer consists primarily of outdoor recreational activities:

• golf: East Lothian accommodates a number of historic golf courses. The area is home to Muirfield Golf Course, a regular host to The Open Championship;
• walking: the original section of the now much longer John Muir Way is located along the East Lothian coast;
• cycling: the Go East Lothian Trail spans 39 miles, and starts and finishes at North Berwick. The trail closely follows the East Lothian coast. The trail includes a number of beaches and popular tourist destinations;
• fishing: takes place near Hopes and Whiteadder Reservoirs, as well as Kin Loch, the River Tyne at Dunbar, or from the harbours at Dunbar, Cockenzie, Port Seton and North Berwick. Recreational fishing trips are commonplace from these locations;
• equestrianism: Horse riding is popular along the beaches of Gullane and Belhaven Bay;
• water sports: diving is popular in Forth, Bass Rock and Isle of May, where shipwrecks and underwater cliffs can be explored. Windsurfing is popular at Longniddry and Gullane. North Berwick and Tantallon are popular for Kayaking, and Belhaven for surfing. The Firth of Forth in general is popular for paddle boarding. The Forth also has a rich sailing history and caters for all types of sailing, from small dinghies to large yachts. Cruising, club and national championships take place on the Firth of Forth;
• tourist attractions: John Muir’s birthplace, Foxlake Adventures, Smeaton Estate, East Links Family Park, the Scottish Seabird Centre and the National Museum of Flight; and
• beaches: East Lothian has numerous popular beaches, including Belhaven Bay, Yellowcraig, Seacliff, and Longniddry.
  131. Based on the viewpoints set out in volume 2, chapter 15, the following viewpoints – some of which are popular tourist destinations – within the SLVIA study area are located in East Lothian:

Representative day time viewpoints

• North Berwick Law (7);
• Tantallon Castle (8);
• Tyninghame (Ravensheugh Sands) (9);
• Dunbar (10);
• Skateraw (11); and
• Pencraig Brae (21).

Night time viewpoints

• Dunbar (10).

Scottish Borders

132. Scottish Border’s tourism offer also consists primarily of outdoor recreational activities:

• cycling and walking: there are a number of cycling and walking routes, varying in length and covering both rural landscapes and historical sites along the routes, notably St Abbs Head nature reserve and Coldingham Bay;
• fishing: the River Tweed, River Teviot and the market town of Kelso are all popular fishing spots;
• golf: there are a number of golf facilities including Schloss Roxburghe Championship Golf Course at Kelso; and
• Eyemouth: a fishing town that dates back to the 13th century. A popular location for walkers visiting the harbour and the historic fort as well as the beach. Historical attractions include the Eyemouth Museum and Gunsgreen House, which documents smuggling activities in the town from 18th century. Rib trips are also conducted from Eyemouth harbour.
  133. Based on the viewpoints set out in volume 2, chapter 15, the following viewpoints – some of which are popular tourist destinations – within the SLVIA study area are located in  Scottish Borders:

Representative day time viewpoints

• Cove (12);
• Fast Castle (13);
• Tun Law (14).;
• St Abb's Head (15);
• Eyemouth (16); and
• Ewelair Hill (22).

Night time viewpoints

• St Abb's Head (15).

Recreation

134. A summary of recreational activities is set out within volume 2, chapter 17. This is not repeated here.

GVA – Tourism and Recreation

135. Data from Scotland’s Marine Economic Statistics (2018) indicates total GVA estimated at £579 million and 29,700 jobs. This is estimated to account for 40% of marine employment and 14% of all Scottish tourism. However, it is noted that this employment headcount is not replicated in FTE terms due to the seasonal nature of much employment. The trend data shows activity levels are increasing in this market segment.
136. The Forth and Tay region is identified as supporting 26% of Scottish marine tourism, including £153 million of GVA and 7,000 jobs.
137. Analysis of recreational sailing, boating and motor cruising identifies that these activities are highly seasonal and typically undertaken during daytime. These activities are popular around the coast of Scotland, particularly on the west coast with just 10% of profits associated with activities on the east coast.
138. Sailing Tourism in Scotland (ekos, 2016) covers both recreational and tourist related sailing activities for both domestic and visiting sailors. Across Scotland, the analysis identifies 15,700 berths of which 13,500 are filled by Scottish residents. Occupancy levels are high at 95%. The sector is estimated at £130 million in turnover, £68 million in GVA and supporting 2,700 FTEs. The sector is stated as growing. The study considers four regions. The east region covers the east coast from Eyemouth to Peterhead and is most applicable. This identifies 1,617 berths in the east region, 10% of the Scottish total. It is noted that 98% of berth owners are Scottish residents. This is well above the 69% average across Scotland as a whole indicating predominantly domestic activity. Total employment related to the sector in the east region is estimated at 205 FTEs, 7.5% of the Scottish total. 

18.7.7.              Future Baseline Scenario

139. The EIA Regulations require that a “a description of the relevant aspects of the current state of the environment (Baseline scenario) and an outline of the likely evolution thereof without development as far as natural changes from the Baseline scenario can be assessed with reasonable effort, on the basis of the availability of environmental information and scientific knowledge” is included within the Offshore EIA Report.
140. In the event that the Proposed Development does not come forward, an assessment of the future baseline conditions has been carried out and is described within this section.
141. Analysis by the Scottish Fiscal Commission sets out forecasts for the Scottish economy to 2026. This indicates short term growth in the economy following the downturn caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Over the medium term 2024-26 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is forecast to grow at 1.4% per annum and employment is forecast to fall nationally. As per Table 18.21   Open ▸ , the population is projected to decline in terms of natural change (births minus deaths), with in-migration playing a vital role in sustaining positive population growth (National Records of Scotland, 2020). The effects of ageing across the population will also be felt strongly. This will reduce the size of the working age population to 2043 (–0.2%).

Table 18.21: Population Projections to 2043 (2018-based) – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of Population Projections for Scottish Areas, 2018-based (National Records of Scotland), 2022.

Note: negative values in parentheses, figures may not sum due to rounding.

142. Whilst the working age population and employment are forecast to decline, unemployment is forecast to remain static at 4.2%.
143. Analysis prepared by Scottish Enterprise indicates potential recruitment difficulties and a potential shortage of engineers. The potential opportunities within the low carbon sector (including offshore wind) are stated to be recognised by businesses in Scotland. It is noted that the low carbon sector is well placed to compete for skilled workers due to the good levels of pay in the sector.
144. Sector analysis by Skills Development Scotland includes commentary on the energy, construction and engineering (manufacturing) sectors. Across the energy sector as a whole the workforce is expected to decline by 2031. However, there will continue to be employment opportunities as a result of replacement demand. Major growth is forecast within the offshore wind sector workforce, from 3,500 to 20,000 by 2031 as deals materialise. Within the construction sector, employment is forecast to grow faster than the whole economy average, with high levels of replacement demand fuelling further employment opportunity. Within the engineering sector, the workforce is expected to grow, but at a slower rate than the whole economy average.
145. Section 18.4 sets out that Scottish Government, regional public sector economic development stakeholders, and local authorities are planning for future economic growth in the renewable energy sector, which includes offshore wind activities. The strategic planning policy environment, if realised, will result in increased employment and GVA in offshore wind related activities.
146. Overall, the data shows relatively weak performance of the Scottish economy anticipated in the medium term, with a declining population and falling levels of total employment. The offshore wind sector is identified as a key growth opportunity, but is reliant on investments, such as the Proposed Development being secured. Without such investments, the scale of growth in the offshore wind sector as forecast will not be realised.  
147. As per section 18.4, national and local strategic planning environments plan for increased housing provision. This sits alongside economic plans to support and facilitate growth in the economy and particularly the offshore wind industry within socio-economics local study areas and socio-economics national study area. These policies are formulated in order to provide sufficient homes for workers.

Ports development

148. A summary of available port and harbour masterplans, along with future development plans reported by Scottish Energy Ports Capability Directory, relevant to port and harbour facilities under consideration is set out in Table 18.22   Open ▸ . This summary highlights the planned expansion of port and harbour facilities to accommodate additional activities.

Table 18.22: Summary of Publicly Available Port and Harbour Masterplans and Future Development Plans

Offshore wind farm development

149. As per volume 2, chapter 15 (section 15.7.3), offshore wind farms are set to form a key characteristic of the evolving baseline character of the area of coastline in proximity to the outer Firth of Forth. This would also be true in the absence of the Proposed Development, which follows other developments incorporating Neart na Gaoithe and Seagreen (both under construction), and the consented Inch Cape. These developments are situated in between the Proposed Development array area and the impacted area of coastline.

18.7.8.              Data Limitations and Assumptions

150. Specific data on employment and GVA within offshore wind activities specifically is not available across socio-economics local study areas on a consistent basis.
151. Conventional modelling of economic impacts for most industrial sectors relies on government statistics, for example, those based on SIC07 codes. SIC07 data is most appropriate for traditional industries. The development of new codes for a maturing sector such as offshore wind, however, takes time. At this stage, there are currently no SIC07 codes specific to the offshore wind sector. This means that conventional SIC analyses of offshore wind and related activities needs to map existing SIC07 data onto offshore wind and related activities, which is not straightforward. Analyses using SIC07 codes also rely on generalised data. This means that – either intentionally or unintentionally – some activities relevant to offshore wind and related activities might be excluded, and other activity unrelated to offshore wind and related activities might be included. There is no officially agreed definition to be used when assessing the offshore wind related industry based on SIC07 codes.
152. Use of BRES data covers the period 2015 to 2019 as there is a discontinuity with earlier data (pre-2015) following the inclusion of PAYE only businesses in the dataset.
153. Employment, GVA, and labour market data for 2020/21 is not included due to the labour market uncertainty resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. Multiple lockdowns and government measures to mitigate subsequent adverse economic impacts (for example, the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme) created a highly unusual set of circumstances potentially impacting official labour market statistics. Exclusion of 2020/21 data ensures this limitation does not impact data and statistics used in this chapter.
154. Data on economic activity rates and resident-based employment are collected via the Annual Population Survey. As this is a survey, data from smaller areas (e.g. local authority level) can exhibit greater volatility than data from larger areas due to smaller sample sizes. These limitations are not deemed to be of sufficient scale to undermine the validity of the assessment and remain the best available data.
155. Tourism data is available from Visit Scotland on the basis of tourism regions (as defined by Visit Scotland). These definitions are set out as per volume 3, appendix 18.5. For the most part, these regions do not match exactly with the socio-economic and tourism local study area definitions set out in Table 18.2   Open ▸ . The baseline environments of Visit Scotland’s tourism regions are adopted as a proxy for the baseline conditions in the relevant socio-economic and tourism local study area.

18.8. Methodology for Assessment of Effects

18.8.1.              Overview

156. The socio-economics and tourism assessment of effects has followed the methodology set out in volume 1, chapter 6 of the Offshore EIA Report. There is no official guidance or legislation governing the process of socio-economics and tourism EIA assessment of effects.
157. This chapter’s approach is based on the most up-to-date and relevant methods available at the time of writing. Marine Scotland Licensing Operations Team (MS-LOT) guidance on socio-economic assessment of effects of offshore wind schemes is not currently available (at time of consent submission). However, relevant consultation responses to date from MAU (see section 18.5) make recommendations in alignment with the broad contents of the draft guidance, ensuring this chapter’s approach is as aligned as possible at this stage with the approach anticipated to be set out in the guidance.
158. However, specific to the socio-economic and tourism EIA, the following (non-binding) guidance document has been considered:

• Glasson, J. el al. (2020). Guidance on assessing the socio-economic impacts of offshore wind farms, Oxford Brookes University.

18.8.2.              Criteria for Assessment of Effects

159. The process for determining the significance of effects is a two-stage process that involves defining the magnitude of the potential impacts and the sensitivity of the receptors. This section describes the criteria applied in this chapter to assign values to the magnitude of potential impacts and the sensitivity of the receptors. The terms used to define magnitude and sensitivity are based on those which are described in further detail in volume 1, chapter 6 of the Offshore EIA Report.
160. As this assessment sets out magnitude, sensitivity and significance for multiple study areas, the assessment has been tabulated for ease of interpretation. In addition, for each potential impact pathway, the baseline conditions for which magnitude and sensitivity are assessed are presented within the specific impact pathway assessment.
161. The criteria for defining magnitude in this chapter are outlined in Table 18.24   Open ▸ . In determining magnitude within this chapter, each assessment considered the spatial extent, duration, frequency and reversibility of impact and these are outlined within the magnitude section of each assessment of effects (e.g. a duration of hours or days would be considered for most receptors to be of short term duration, which is likely to result in a low magnitude of impact).

Table 18.23: Definition of Terms Relating to the Magnitude of an Impact

162. For each impact under consideration, the magnitude of employment and/or GVA impacts is assessed against multiple baseline conditions and aggregated to a single magnitude level as appropriate. In order to ensure consistency of interpretation, the magnitude assessed against each baseline condition is assigned a value as per Table 18.24   Open ▸ . The average value across baseline conditions is then calculated and used to determine the overall magnitude.
163. This chapter assesses impacts predicted to last for more than two years as ‘long term’, impacts predicted to last between six months and two years as medium term, and impacts predicted to last less than six months as short term.
164. The criteria for defining sensitivity in this chapter are outlined in Table 18.25   Open ▸ .

Table 18.24: Definition of Terms Relating to the Sensitivity of the Receptor

165. As per section 18.4, increasing employment in the renewable energy sector, including offshore wind activities specifically, is a policy objective at the national (Scotland) level. It is also a policy objective of each local authority which has a potential construction facility located within its boundary to ensure renewable energy plays a role in its future economic development. As set out at section 18.7.4, the offshore wind sector is identified as a growth opportunity within a more broadly defined energy sector which is forecast to experience employment decline, and medium-term declines in employment and population more generally across Scotland. As such, the sensitivity of all receptors at all phases of development are assessed as high unless otherwise stated, due to assessment of capacity/recoverability of receptors.
166. The significance of the effect upon socio-economics and tourism is determined by considering both the magnitude of the impact and the sensitivity of the receptor. The particular method employed for this assessment is presented in Table 18.26   Open ▸ .
167. In cases where a range is suggested for the significance of effect, there remains the possibility that this may span the significance threshold (i.e. the range is given as minor to moderate). In such cases the final significance conclusion is based upon the author's professional judgement as to which outcome delineates the most likely effect. Where professional judgement is applied to quantify final significance from a range, the assessment will set out the factors that result in the final assessment of significance. These factors may include the likelihood that an effect will occur, data certainty and relevant information about the wider environmental context.
168. For the purposes of this assessment:

• a level of residual effect of moderate or above will be considered a ‘significant’ effect in terms of the EIA Regulations; and
• a level of residual effect of minor or less will be considered ‘not significant’ in terms of the EIA Regulations.
  169. In cases where a range is suggested for the significance of effect, there remains the possibility that this may span the significance threshold (i.e. the range is given as minor to moderate). In such cases the final significance is based upon the author’s professional judgement as to which outcome delineates the most likely effect.

Table 18.25: Matrix Used for the Assessment of the Significance of the Effect