18.8.3.              Technical Impact Report

170. The Technical Impact Report at volume 3, appendix 18.1 (BVG Associates, 2021) sets out an economic analysis of the Project. This has been prepared to inform the socio-economics and tourism assessment of effects from the Proposed Development.
171. The technical impact analysis considers direct, indirect and induced employment and GVA effects at local, Scotland and UK level across a detailed breakdown of project phases. The approach draws on BVG Associates proprietary methodology. The full methodology employed is set out within the report and its own appendices.

Wind Farm Options Considered

172. The Technical Impact Report considers the potential economic impacts of the wind farm under two different wind farm options – Option 1 and Option 2 (detailed below). Published in December 2021, the Technical Impact Report is based on a point-in-time project description at the time of publishing. Under the ‘options’ considered, the design of the wind farm is the same, except for the following variations in transmission:

• ‘option 1’: 2.3 GW High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC) and 1.8 GW High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC); and
• ‘option 2’: 4.1 GW of HVDC.
  173. These are the named options considered in the Technical Impact Report – as per the project description at the time of publishing. The names of these options (Option 1 and Option 2) differ from those detailed in the Proposed Development’s project description as defined for consenting (Combined Option A, Combined Option B, and HVDC Option). The differences and interactions between both sets of Options is considered in Table 18.26   Open ▸ below.
  174. The expenditure for options 1 and 2 considered in the Technical Impact Report is identical for the development (DEVEX, £0.1 bn), operation and maintenance (OPEX, £6.0 bn), and decommissioning phases (DECEX, £0.2 bn). There is a minor variation for construction phase CAPEX with Option 1 measured at £9.6 bn and Option 2 £9.7bn. This is equivalent to approximately 1% additional CAPEX for Option 2. The derived economic impacts under each scenario are therefore subject to very minor variations which are not sufficient to have any substantive impact on the assessment of significance of effects.
  175. The stated CAPEX and OPEX figures are preliminary, and based on the best available information relating to supply chain and procurement conditions at the time the BVGA report was prepared. These figures will be subject to a degree of change throughout the project lifetime, as a result of external macro economic factors such as inflationary effects, and internal project factors such as delivery models. It is unlikely that such changes to CAPEX and OPEX would materially affect the assessments of this Chapter.

Adjusting impacts to exclude Cambois connection

176. Since the Technical Impact report was published – on the basis of the options described above – the project description has changed. As described in volume 1, chapter 3, the Applicant is developing an additional export cable grid connection to Blyth, Northumberland (the Cambois connection). Applications for necessary consents (including marine licenses) will be applied for separately.
177. The options considered in the Technical Impact Report include capacity that will be delivered via the Cambois connection – the impacts assessed in the Technical Impact Report therefore include impacts associated with the Cambois connection. As such, it is necessary to adjust the impacts assessed in the Technical Impact Report to account for the separate application covering the Cambois connection i.e. discount employment and GVA impacts to remove those associated with the Cambois connection – to consider only the options comprised in the Proposed Development for the assessment of impacts from the project alone. These options include HVAC and HVDC solutions for the Offshore Transmission Infrastructure as follows:

• combined Option A or Combined Option B – a combined HVAC/HVDC solution comprising the following:

–           up to eight HVAC OSPs to facilitate connections to Branxton and two HVDC Offshore convertor station platforms that would be required for the Cambois connection; or

–           up to five larger HVAC OSPs to facilitate connections to Branxton and two HVDC Offshore convertor station platforms that would be required for the Cambois connection.

• HVDC Option: Up to five HVDC Offshore convertor station platforms, two for the Branxton connection and two for the additional Cambois connection. This also includes an offshore interconnector platform.
  178. The two sets of options interact as follows in Table 18.26   Open ▸ :

Table 18.26: Interaction of Options Considered in Technical Impact Report and Proposed Development Application

179. Of the level 2 supply chain categories set out in Table 18.27   Open ▸ , it is anticipated the following categories include impacts which cover the separate applications, and would require adjustment:

Table 18.27: Adjustment of Technical Impact Report Assessment to Exclude Cambois Connection – by Level 2 Supply Chain Category

180. Impacts associated with the Cambois connection will be considered cumulatively in section 18.12.

Procurement scenarios

181. The Technical Impact Report considers four alternative procurement scenarios. These are defined as follows (listed from lowest UK content to highest):

• A low UK content scenario, where significant UK, Scottish and local suppliers are unsuccessful in the procurement process;
• A baseline UK supply scenario, where procurement decisions are based on the current competitiveness of the Scottish and rest of UK supply chain;
• An enhanced UK supply scenario, where all plausible procurement decisions for local, Scottish and UK supply are included; and
• A 60% UK content scenario, which considers what procurement decisions are needed to reach 60% UK content. Table 18.29   Open ▸ sets out the local, Scottish and UK content shares across the four procurement scenarios.

Table 18.28: Local, Scottish and UK Content Procurement Scenarios (Shares)

Source: BVG Associates, 2021.

182. Across all four procurement scenarios local content is estimated at 7%. Therefore, the choice of scenario does not materially impact on the assessment of local impact.
183. Scottish content is similar for both the low and baseline scenarios with a more marked step to the enhanced and 60% scenarios.
184. The baseline scenario was developed drawing on existing conditions in the offshore wind sector and supply chain activities, and does not assume a worsening or improvement in conditions as in the case of the alternative scenarios. Confidence in the baseline UK supply scenario is high and allows a suitably precautious approach in avoiding overstating economic benefits. The variations across local and Scottish content measures when compared to the low content scenario are modest. It is therefore adopted as a plausible, realistic and suitable scenario for assessing socio-economic and tourism effects where a minimum design scenario is required.
185. The enhanced UK supply scenario is deemed plausible with appropriate engagement and favourable procurement decisions. This scenario takes account of known emerging investments in the Scottish supply chain. The enhanced scenario is therefore appropriate to be considered as part of the assessment as a plausible, realistic and suitable maximum design scenario. This includes an increased share of both Scottish and UK content. This includes selection of a Scottish based construction staging port for wind turbine installation which is an important consideration for assessing housing, accommodation and local services impacts.
186. Based on the current status of the UK offshore wind sector supply chain there is a substantial step change required to reach 60% UK content. In order to achieve this level, the combined efforts of UK and Scottish Governments, offshore wind developers, Tier 1 and 2 contractors and other key offshore wind sector stakeholders will be needed. Facilitating the required enhancements to UK supply chain’s capability to deliver 60% UK content will be beyond any single project. This is deemed unlikely to be achieved in full within the required time period for the construction phase of the Proposed Development. This has been confirmed by stakeholder consultees. The uncertainty surrounding where the required level of supply chain activity and investment will be located makes the 60% UK content scenario unsuitable for assessment. This accords with stakeholder comment that there is a tendency to consider unrealistic and over ambitious economic impact scenarios.
187. There is no change in local or Scottish content across the baseline and enhanced scenarios during the operation and maintenance or decommissioning phases. Variation is only present in the construction and installation phase.
188. To aid readability, the baseline UK supply scenario has been taken forward for full assessment – the enhanced UK supply scenario is discussed at the end of each construction phase assessment of effects, with any notable differences highlighted for the reader’s benefit alongside an assessment of significance. Additional data or analysis tables are included where appropriate.
189. Table 18.29   Open ▸ sets out the key variations between the baseline and enhanced procurement scenarios. This shows that the enhanced scenario captures an increased share of CAPEX through the construction phase, with the operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases being considered in the same way across both scenarios.

Table 18.29: Local, Scottish and UK Content Procurement Scenarios (Detailed Assumptions)

Source: HJA based on BVG Associates, 2022

Construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phase impacts

190. The impacts assessed under level 1 and 2 supply chain categories as part of the Technical Impact Report have been aggregated to provide headline impacts for construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases as per Table 18.30   Open ▸ .

Table 18.30: Classification of Level 1 and Level 2 Supply Chain Categories by Construction, Operation and Maintenance, and Decommissioning Phase

191. Construction phase impacts are presented as ‘maximum concurrent’ FTE years / GVA. This is a measure of peak construction impacts based on:

• annualised impacts of level 2 supply chain categories based on the anticipated construction duration of each phase of works; and
• the point at which the overlap of these would create the highest level of employment/GVA impacts i.e. maximum concurrent.

18.8.4.              Support Harbours

192. The socio-economics and tourism local (support harbours) study area is assessed against an indicative 25% of the overall impacts. This is because these support harbours would only play a supporting role in the operation and maintenance phase. As per Table 18.2   Open ▸ , these facilities do not have the capacity to accommodate the full impacts of this phase, and as such would not be selected to do so. Using professional expert judgement, a conservative figure of 25% has been selected for this study area (conservative as the level of activity at support harbours is still likely to be lower than this).

18.9. Measures Adopted as Part of the Proposed Development

193. Rather than mitigation there are potential opportunities to secure enhanced beneficial effects within the socio-economics local study areas, socio-economics national study area, and tourism local study area.
194. The Applicant has already engaged in early stage discussions with potential Tier 1 suppliers, key national and regional socio-economic stakeholders including Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise to explore matters relating to labour, skills and inward investment. This builds on existing working relationships established via other offshore wind projects that have been developed or are in development by the Applicant.
195. The Applicant has committed to being a member of a local skills and supply chain forum, if established. The Applicant attended a ‘kick off’ meeting on 18 March 2022 with other representatives across the energy industry. The forum is being organised and chaired by Paul McLennan, Member of Scottish Parliament (MSP) (MSP for East Lothian).
196. The Applicant’s designed in measures which will be established are set out below.

• Supply Chain Engagement Plan: setting out initiatives to enhance opportunities for procurement from local and Scottish suppliers and to drive the investment in new facilities associated with the development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation supply chain. This looks to act on the opportunity presented by a more reliable pipeline of offshore wind sector activity, and tackle the historic lack of investment in supply chain capacity – this aligns with the Scottish Government’s commitment to deliver on the ambitions of Scotland’s offshore wind programme. This pipeline of activity can create market certainty for investors to facilitate the establishment of new and increased supply chain capabilities in Scotland – as pointed out by Highlands and Islands Enterprise and Scottish Enterprise during consultation;
• Local Recruitment Plan: setting out initiatives to ensure local residents are aware of, and given opportunity to access employment opportunities. This will include a Local Skills Plan setting out opportunities and actions for engagement to enable local residents and training providers to prepare for anticipated employment opportunities; and
  197. The Applicant is committed to the creation of a Community Benefit Fund pending the grant of consent for the Project. A Berwick Bank Community Benefit Fund would be established in partnership with local stakeholders to ensure that local communities help set the priorities for the fund, as well as decide on what gets funded. The details of the Community Benefit Fund would be established after a consent determination has been made. Ahead of establishing any formal Fund, the Project team are keen to support local initiatives where possible and have invited local stakeholders to discuss opportunities directly with the Project team. To date the Project has supported various local organisations and initiatives such as the North Berwick Fringe By The Sea Festival, the Scottish Seabird Centre and the National Merlin Rocket Yachting Championship, held in East Lothian. In addition to this the Project team are working alongside local education partners to explore a variety of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) benefits that the Project can bring to the East Lothian area. The Project team are members of the East Lothian Industry and Education Partnership and are also members of the Mid and East Lothian Chamber of Commerce.

18.10. Key Parameters for Assessment

18.10.1.         Maximum Design Scenario

198. The maximum design scenarios identified in Table 18.31   Open ▸ have been selected as those having the potential to result in the greatest effect on an identified receptor or receptor group. These scenarios have been selected from the details provided in volume 1, chapter 3 of the Offshore EIA Report, along with the Technical Impact Report in volume 3, appendix 18.1 (BVG Associates, 2021). Effects of greater adverse significance are not predicted to arise should any other development scenario, based on details within the Project Design Envelope (e.g. different infrastructure layout), to that assessed here, be taken forward in the final design scheme.
199. Volume 3, appendix 18.1 sets out impacts locally and across the ‘Rest of Scotland’ area. In discussions with BVG Associates it was noted that the locations identified as under consideration as construction ports could accommodate some of the rest of Scotland activity for installation and commissioning. The exact locations for activities is subject to a range of procurement decisions and other factors including capacity and scheduling at suitable ports. In determining appropriate scenarios for consideration, it was agreed that it was implausible that all elements of installation and commissioning activity would be located at a single staging port location. The most plausible option was deemed to be each element of installation and commissioning activity (wind turbine, foundation, inter-array cables, offshore export cables, OSPs/Offshore convertor station platforms) being located within different port locations suitably located to access the array, but that some colocation of elements is possible. The combination of co-located construction supply chain activities is listed for each impact.

Table 18.31: Maximum Design Scenario Considered for Each Impact as Part of the Assessment of Likely Significant Effects on Socio-Economics and Tourism

18.10.2.         Impacts Scoped out of the Assessment

200. On the basis of the baseline environment and the project description outlined in volume 1, chapter 3 of the Offshore EIA Report, no impacts are proposed to be scoped out of the assessment for socio-economics and tourism.

Commercial fisheries

201. Impacts on activities associated with commercial fisheries such as temporary loss or restricted access to fishing grounds have been considered in terms of socio-economic impacts such as changes to income for fishers and fishing related businesses.
202. Volume 1, chapter 12 has assessed no significant effects in EIA terms on activities associated with commercial fisheries. Therefore, it is assessed there are likely to be no socio-economic effects on commercial fisheries receptors that are significant in EIA terms.

18.11. Assessment of Significance

203. The potential effects arising from the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning phases of the Proposed Development are listed in Table 18.31   Open ▸ , along with the maximum design scenario against which each effect has been assessed in terms of its likely significance. An assessment of the likely significance of the effects of the Proposed Development on socio-economics and tourism receptors caused by each identified impact is given below.

Impact on Employment in Activities (Including Supply Chain) Associated with: Manufacturing, Construction and Installation; Operation and Maintenance; and Decommissioning

204. This impact is applicable to the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases. The assessment draws on the employment impacts as set out in the supporting Technical Report in volume 3, appendix 18.1.

Magnitude – Assessment Approach

205. The magnitude of employment impacts is assessed against the following baseline conditions:

• share of total employment across all industries (2019): this gives an indication of the scale of the impact in the context of the receiving environment’s employment base;
• share of total employment in impact industries (2019): this gives an indication of the scale of the impact in the context of the receiving environment’s impact industries employment base; and
• share of total employment in offshore wind sector (2019): this gives an indication of the scale of the impact in the context of the receiving environment’s offshore wind sector employment base. Data for this receptor is not available below the national level and therefore quantitative analysis is excluded for socio-economics local study area assessments.
  206. The criteria against which magnitude of employment impacts are assessed and can be found in Table 18.32   Open ▸ .

Table 18.32: Magnitude of Employment Impacts Assessment Criteria

Sensitivity – Assessment Approach

207. Sensitivity to employment impacts is assessed against the following baseline condition:

• policy environment: whether an area’s policy position has the aim of making the offshore wind sector part of its approach to economic development. This can also be through providing jobs, skills, education, and training for local residents to work in the offshore wind sector. Policy aims to provide the same opportunity in the renewable energy sector will also be considered as important. General policy aims to provide jobs, skills, education, and training for local residents in any sector will also be considered.

Construction Phase

208. Potential expenditure on the following activities associated with the Proposed Development could support employment in local and Scottish companies that are directly engaged in the development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation supply chain:

• wind turbine manufacturing and supply – blades, nacelle, hub, tower;
• balance of plant manufacturing and supply – foundations, inter-array cables, OSPs/Offshore convertor station platforms, offshore export cables; and
• construction and installation of wind turbines and balance of plant – wind turbine, foundation, inter-array cables, and other installation.
  209. The development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation of the Proposed Development could also go on to support employment indirectly in the wider Scottish supply chain and as a result of workers spending their wages (induced effects).
  210. A maximum 96 month construction period has been assumed throughout.
  211. The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation under the Baseline procurement scenario activities are set out in Table 18.33   Open ▸ . This will create opportunities to both safeguard existing employment and facilitate new employment.

Table 18.33: Potential Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) of the Proposed Development on Employment in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of BVG Associates (2021). Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Magnitude of Impact

212. Employment impacts have been assessed on the basis of direct, indirect, and induced impacts:

• direct impacts result from the activities of the Applicant and its major contractors;
• indirect impacts result from the activities of suppliers to the Applicant or its major contractors; and
• induced impacts result from the personal expenditure of individuals working on the wind farm (direct and indirect).
  213. On the basis of a maximum 96 month construction period, the impact is assessed as long term. Due to the contract based nature of manufacturing, construction, and installation activities, the impact is assessed as intermittent.
  214. As discussed in section 18.3, impacts are considered across multiple socio-economics local study areas linked to the selection of construction ports, and the associated supply of a range of inputs and services. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.34   Open ▸ .

Table 18.34: Comparison of Construction Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

215. The magnitude of impact for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.35   Open ▸ . The share of offshore wind sector employment within the local study areas is inferred based on the nationally available data.

Table 18.35: Magnitude of Construction Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23   Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the Receptor

216. As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high – a summary is set out in Table 18.36   Open ▸ .

Table 18.36: Sensitivity of Employment in Activities (Including Supply Chain) Associated with Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Significance of the Effect

217. The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area are set out in Table 18.37   Open ▸ .

Table 18.37: Significance of Construction Phase Employment Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Alternative Procurement Scenarios

218. The core assessment set out above has been undertaken on the Baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken to the Enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial effects are greater.
219. The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Enhanced procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.38   Open ▸ .

Table 18.38: Potential Impacts (Enhanced Procurement Scenario) of the Proposed Development on Employment in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of BVG Associates (2021). Figures may not sum due to rounding.

220. Under the Enhanced scenario, there is some increase in the employment impacts assessed at the socio-economics local study area level during construction phase. The quantitative assessment indicates some increases in the magnitude of impacts at this level. However, the changes in employment impacts are not judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects – therefore no change in significance of effect is assessed at the socio-economics local study area level.
221. Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics local study area level the significance of effects assessed remain unchanged from the Baseline scenario as per Table 18.37   Open ▸ above.
222. There is a substantial increase in the employment impacts assessed under the Enhanced scenario at the socio-economics national study area level during construction phase. The quantitative assessment indicates an increase from moderate to major (beneficial) to major (beneficial) significance of effects at this level. The increase in employment impacts are judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects.
223. Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics national study area level the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be high (beneficial) and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will be of major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

224. The Applicant has committed to enhancement of beneficial effects as per section 18.9. No secondary mitigation is required.

Operation and Maintenance Phase

225. Potential expenditure on the following activities associated with the Proposed Development could support employment in Scottish companies that are directly engaged in the operation and maintenance supply chain:

• wind turbine, balance of plant, and transmission maintenance and servicing; and
• vessel and crew activity.
  226. The operation and maintenance of the Proposed Development could also go on to support employment indirectly in the wider supply chain.
  227. A 35 year operation period has been assumed throughout.
  228. The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on employment in operation and maintenance activities at the socio-economics local study area level are set out in Table 18.39   Open ▸ .

Table 18.39: Potential Impacts of the Proposed Development on Employment in Operation and Maintenance Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of BVG Associates (2021)

Magnitude of Impact

229. Employment impacts have been assessed on the basis of direct, indirect and induced impacts.
230. On the basis of a 35 year operation period, the impact is assessed as long term. The majority of operation and maintenance activities will be on a continuous rolling programme. The impact is therefore assessed as continuous.
231. As discussed in section 18.3, impacts are considered across multiple socio-economics local study areas linked to the selection of operation and maintenance port and harbour facilities, and the associated supply of a range of inputs and services. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.40   Open ▸ .

Table 18.40: Comparison of Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

232. The magnitude of impact, and associated justification, for each socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.41   Open ▸ .

Table 18.41: Magnitude of Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23   Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the Receptor

233. As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high – a summary is set out in Table 18.42   Open ▸ .

Table 18.42: Sensitivity of Employment in Activities (Including Supply Chain) Associated with Operation and Maintenance – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Significance of the Effect

234. The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics and tourism and national study area is set out in Table 18.43   Open ▸ .

Table 18.43: Significance of Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

235. Across the socio-economics local study area the significance of the impact is deemed to be of overall moderate to major beneficial significance. This is significant in EIA terms.
236. For the socio-economics national study area the significance of the impact is deemed to be of overall moderate to major beneficial significance. This is significant in EIA terms.

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

237. The Applicant has committed to enhancement of beneficial effects as per section 18.9. No secondary mitigation is required.

Decommissioning Phase

238. Potential expenditure on decommissioning of wind turbine and balance of plant associated with the Proposed Development could support employment in activities associated with decommissioning in the socio-economics local study areas and socio-economics national study area.
239. The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. It is anticipated that all structures above seabed level will be removed, but subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts.
240. No plans are in place to consider potential locations for decommissioning support ports. It is not known if this will be located in Scotland. Given the need for large lay down areas the four ports identified as being under consideration for the construction phase would have the greatest potential to accommodate decommissioning activities based on current circumstances.
241. The Technical Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1) notes that the workforce for the decommissioning of the offshore parts of the wind farm is likely to be supported in a similar way to installation and commissioning.
242. On this basis the magnitude of effects would be lower than those set out for the construction phase under the baseline and enhanced scenarios.
243. The significance of effects assessed at construction phase for employment in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities are set out in Table 18.37   Open ▸ . On the basis of currently available evidence the significance of effects for the decommissioning phase will be no greater than moderate beneficial significance across socio-economics local study areas and the socio-economics national study area. This is significant in EIA terms.

Impact on GVA (£) Supported in Activities (Including Supply Chain) Associated with: Manufacturing, Construction and Installation; Operation and Maintenance; and Decommissioning

244. Economic activities undertaken in local and national study areas will support the creation of GVA, a measure of economic output.
245. This impact is applicable to the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases.

Magnitude – Assessment Approach

246. Magnitude of GVA impacts is assessed against the following baseline conditions:

• share of total GVA across all industries (2019): this gives an indication of the scale of the impact in the context of the receiving environment’s GVA output;
• share of total GVA in impact industries (2019): this gives an indication of the scale of the impact in the context of the receiving environment’s impact industries GVA output; and
• share of total GVA in offshore wind sector (2019): this gives an indication of the scale of the impact in the context of the receiving environment’s offshore wind sector GVA output. Data for this receptor is not available below the national level and is therefore excluded for Socio-Economics local study area assessments.
  247. The criteria against which magnitude of GVA impacts are assessed and can be found in Table 18.44   Open ▸ .

Table 18.44: Magnitude of GVA Impacts Assessment Criteria

248. This is based on average annual GVA growth of 3.7% across all industries in the UK (see section 18.7.3).

Sensitivity – Assessment Approach

249. Sensitivity of GVA impacts is assessed against the following baseline condition:

• policy environment: whether an area’s policy position has the aim of making the offshore wind sector part of its approach to economic development. This can be through increasing direct activity in the offshore wind sector, or indirectly through the supply chain. Policy aims to provide the same increase in activity in the renewable energy sector will also be considered as important.

Construction Phase

250. Potential expenditure on the following activities associated with the Proposed Development could support GVA in Scottish companies that are directly engaged in the development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation supply chain:

• wind turbine manufacturing and supply – blades, nacelle, hub, tower;
• balance of plant manufacturing and supply – foundations, inter-array cables, OSPs/Offshore convertor station platforms, offshore export cables; and
• construction and installation of wind turbine and balance of plant – wind turbine, foundation, inter-array cables, and other installation.
  251. The development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation of the Proposed Development could also go on to support GVA indirectly in the wider Scottish supply chain.
  252. A maximum 96 month construction period has been assumed throughout.
  253. The potential impacts of the Proposed Development on GVA in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities are set out in Table 18.45   Open ▸ .

Table 18.45: Potential Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) of the Proposed Development on GVA in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of BVG Associates (2021).

Magnitude of Impact

254. GVA impacts have been assessed on the basis of direct, indirect, and induced impacts.
255. On the basis of a maximum 96 month construction period, the impact is assessed as long term. Due to the contract-based nature of manufacturing, construction, and installation activities, the impact is assessed as intermittent.
256. As discussed in section 18.3, impacts are considered across multiple socio-economics local study areas linked to the selection of construction ports, and the associated supply of a range of inputs and services. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.46   Open ▸

Table 18.46: Comparison of Construction Phase GVA Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

257. The magnitude of impact, and associated justification, for each socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.47   Open ▸ .

Table 18.47: Magnitude of Construction Phase GVA Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23   Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the Receptor

258. As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high – a summary is set out in Table 18.48   Open ▸ .

Table 18.48: Sensitivity of GVA in Activities (Including Supply Chain) Associated with Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Significance of the Effect

259. The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.49   Open ▸ .

Table 18.49: Significance of Construction Phase GVA Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area