Operation and Maintenance Phase

361. Potential expenditure on activities associated with the operation and maintenance phase of the Proposed Development could support labour migration into socio-economics local study areas.
362. A 35 year operations and maintenance period has been assumed throughout.
363. Under each of the scenarios it is assumed that a Scottish port is utilised as a main operations and maintenance base. Some activity will be supported in other locations in Scotland, which could potentially be another of the ports under consideration. However, the scale of any such impact will be lower than if selected as the main port and assessment has been made on the maximum potential impact.
364. As set out in the Technical Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1), theoretically this workforce could live anywhere and travel to the wind farm for two weekly shifts. However, given the long term continuity of the maintenance work there is a high likelihood the workforce will live locally, within the socio-economics local study area identified relevant to each facility under consideration.
365. The Proposed Development will create new roles within operation and maintenance activities. These roles could be filled through a number of routes including:

• local or Scottish workers transitioning from the Oil and Gas or other relevant sectors;
• new entrants to the sector resulting from existing and planned training activities; and
• relocations of skilled workers to the selected locality.
  366. With a lead time of at least five years before commencement of operations there is time to train a local workforce, with a range of skills and training programmes already in place across Scotland to support potential growth in the offshore wind sector workforce.
  367. For the purposes of assessment it is assumed a maximum of 50% of the workforce is recruited from outside the relevant socio-economics local study area. As such relocations will be long term or permanent – it is assumed that any migrating workers would also relocate their families. The assessment of population impact assumes average household size of 2.14 persons (2020, Estimates of Households and Dwellings, National Records of Scotland).
  368. Table 18.78   Open ▸ sets out the scale of employment associated with the operation and maintenance phase under the baseline scenario. It is assumed jobs are net additional as the Proposed Development adds to the requirement for operation and maintenance workforce above existing baseline.
  369. Other periodic operation and maintenance tasks may require temporary overnight accommodation for crew immediately before and after commencing works offshore. This is estimated at less than 500 nights per annum which is so negligible relative to the scale of existing overnight stays in any of the socio-economics and tourism study areas as to not warrant further consideration.

Table 18.79: Potential Itinerant Employment Impacts (Baseline UK Supply Scenario) of the Proposed Development on Demand for Housing, Accommodation And Local Services – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of BVG Associates (2021).

Magnitude of Impact

370. On the basis of a 35 year operations and maintenance period, the impact is assessed as long term. Due to the ongoing rolling programme of the majority of operation and maintenance activity the impact is assessed as continuous.
371. As discussed in section 18.3, impacts are considered across multiple socio-economics local study areas linked to the selection of operation and maintenance port and harbour facilities, and the associated supply of a range of inputs and services.
372. Growing the working age population of Scotland through attracting migrant labour is a policy aim of the Scottish Government. As such, the impact is assessed as beneficial.
373. The magnitude of impact, and associated justification, for each socio-economics local study area and the national socio-economics study area is set out in Table 18.79   Open ▸ and Table 18.80   Open ▸ .

Table 18.80: Magnitude of Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts on Demand for Housing, Accommodation, and Local Services – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Table 18.81: Magnitude of Operational and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts on Demand for Housing, Accommodation, and Local Services – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Sensitivity of the Receptor

374. The housing market in each socio-economics local study area has delivered additional dwellings in recent years, with plans for additional housing to meet planned population and economic growth including targeted growth of the offshore wind sector. The receptor is deemed to have a high degree of recoverability. 
375. Growing the working age population and attracting migrant labour, as well as delivering additional housing is a policy ambition across local and national socio economics study areas.
376. The sensitivity of impact and associated justification for each socio-economics local study area and the national socio-economics study area is set out in Table 18.81   Open ▸ .

Table 18.82: Sensitivity of Demand for Housing, Accommodation and Local Services – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Significance of the Effect

377. The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area is set out in Table 18.82   Open ▸ .

Table 18.83: Significance of Operational and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts on Demand for Housing, Accommodation and Local Services – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

378. No socio-economics and tourism mitigation is considered necessary because the predicted impact in the absence of mitigation is not significant in EIA terms.

Decommissioning Phase

379. Potential expenditure on decommissioning of wind turbine and balance of plant associated with the Proposed Development could support temporary or medium term labour migration into socio-economics local study areas and the socio-economics national study area.
380. The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. It is anticipated that all structures above seabed level will be removed, but subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts.
381. No plans are in place to consider potential locations for decommissioning support ports. It is not known if this will be located in Scotland. Given the need for large lay down areas the four ports identified as being under consideration for the construction phase would have the greatest potential to accommodate decommissioning activities based on current circumstances.
382. The Technical Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1) notes that the workforce for the decommissioning of the offshore parts of the wind farm is likely to be sourced in a similar way to installation and commissioning. However, the scale of activity will be reduced given the intention to leave cables in situ.
383. On this basis the magnitude of effects would be lower than those set out for the construction phase under the baseline and enhanced scenarios.
384. The significance of effects assessed at construction phase for accommodation, housing and local services are set out at Table 18.73   Open ▸ . On the basis of currently available evidence the significance of effects for the decommissioning phase will be no greater than minor beneficial significance across socio-economics local study areas and the socio-economics national study area. This is not significant in EIA terms.

Impact on Tourism and Recreation Activity and Associated Economic Value

385. The Proposed Development has the potential to cause both beneficial and adverse impacts on tourism and recreational activity and associated economic value.
386. This impact is applicable to the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases.

Tourism and Recreation Related Receptors

387. In assessing any potential adverse effects upon tourism and recreation activity the following receptors have been considered:

• accommodation, housing, and local services.
• seascape, landscape and visual impact (via review of volume 2, chapter 15);
• infrastructure and other users (via review of volume 2, chapter 17); and
• shipping and navigation (via review of volume 2, chapter 13).

Accommodation, Housing and Local Services

388. The analysis of effects on accommodation, housing and local services set out above identified minor beneficial effects on temporary (overnight) accommodation during the construction phase, negligible scale of impacts on temporary (overnight) accommodation during the operation and maintenance phase and no greater than minor beneficial effects on temporary (overnight) accommodation during the decommissioning phase.
389. On the basis of this review there are no likely significant tourism effects that warrant consideration.

Seascape and Visual Impact

390. Volume 2, chapter 15 considers effects on near shore recreational receptors through visual amenity.
391. As per volume 2, chapter 15 (section 15.11) the effects arising as a result of the construction and decommissioning phases of the Proposed Development are assessed as being of the same or lower magnitude and significance on all visual receptors and viewpoints as those arising due to the operation and maintenance phase. However, the residual effects are assessed as being short-term and temporary, occurring during the length of the construction and decommissioning phase, and differing in nature from the operational effects mainly due the influence of the various construction vessels in the seascape, including cable laying vessels closer to shore within the export cable array area corridor, that will not be present or result in effects during the operation and maintenance phase. During the majority of the construction and decommissioning phases the magnitude of change and effects on visual receptors/views will be less than during the operation and maintenance phase, while the wind turbines are not fully constructed. Therefore, a single assessment of seascape and visual impacts during the operation and maintenance phase within the context of tourism receptors is presented to cover all three phases.
392. As per volume 2, chapter 15 (section 15.11) a summary of the significance of effects assessed at each visual receptor relevant to the tourism local study areas is summarised below (daytime only unless otherwise stated).

Table 18.84: Significance of Effects of the Proposed Development during Operation and Maintenance on Representative Viewpoints

393. As per volume 2, chapter 15 (section 15.11) a summary of the significance of effects on seascape (coastal) character assessed at each Coastal Character Area relevant to the tourism local study area is summarised below (daytime only unless otherwise stated).

Table 18.85: Significance of Effects (Daytime) on Seascape (Coastal) Character – Summary

Source: Volume 2, chapter 15, section 15.11.

394. Effects on transport routes are screened out as these are not deemed to be tourism assets.
395. The number of visual receptors and Coastal Character Areas where effects are assessed to be significant in EIA terms is limited. The baseline tourism conditions set out for each impacted local authority in section 18.7.6 indicate that the tourism local study area has a wide and varied tourism sector encompassing many attractions above and beyond the limited, specific locations subject to potential visual impacts. Therefore, the role these specific locations play in the tourism industry of the tourism local study area can be considered as negligible. Overall, the significance of visual impacts at the tourism local study area level is assessed as negligible, which is not significant in EIA terms.
396. Research in 2008 on the economic impacts of wind farms on Scottish tourism found that whilst there is typically a preference among visitors for landscapes without wind farms, offshore wind farms have had negligible and, in some cases, beneficial effects on the tourism industry. The research quotes a study carried out to identify whether a recent experience of a wind farm had altered the likelihood of a visitor returning to Scotland. The study found that 99% of visitors who had seen a wind farm suggested that the experience did not have any effect. Additionally, the research quotes an internet survey which found that few very large farms concentrated in one area have less of an impact on tourism than many small farms spread across the country. To conclude on the various studies undertaken, the report finds that whilst wind farms have an adverse impact on GVA and employment in the tourism industry, the impact is very small.

Infrastructure and Other Users

397. Volume 2, chapter 17 considers effects on a range of recreational receptors including fishing, sailing and motor cruising, kite surfing, windsurfing, sea/surf kayaking, canoeing, beach users and diving.
398. In all cases, the magnitude of effects is assessed as low, significance minor, and no secondary mitigation required. The significance of effects is assessed as below the threshold of EIA significance in all cases.
399. On the basis of the chapter review, there are no significant effects identified in respect to Infrastructure and other users and therefore there are not any likely significant tourism effects that warrant further consideration.

Shipping and Navigation

400. Volume 2, chapter 13 considers navigational safety and risk for all vessels including recreational vessels, as well as restrictions to port activities and users.
401. The assessment of effects associated with the Proposed Development is in all cases deemed to be broadly acceptable or tolerable, which are not significant in EIA terms. 
402. The infrastructure and other users EIA chapter finds no issue with the ability of recreational sailing, boating and motor cruising users from undertaking normal activity. The shipping and navigation assessment finds that such users may be discouraged from navigating in and around the identified navigation corridor given the potential presence of commercial traffic, which may be compounded by the overall reduction in sea room for small craft to navigate within the outer Firth of Forth. This impact would be relevant to construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning phases. However, when subject to further mitigation the assessment finds the significance of any adverse effect is tolerable, which is not significant in EIA terms.
403. On the basis of the chapter review there are no likely significant tourism effects that warrant consideration.

Construction Phase

404. A maximum 96 month construction period has been assumed throughout.

Magnitude of Impact

405. On the basis of a maximum 96 month construction period, the impact is assessed as long term.
406. Analysis of the topics set out above has found there are no direct or indirect tourism and recreation impacts of significance in EIA terms during construction phase. The magnitude of any adverse tourism effects is therefore assessed as negligible.

Sensitivity of the Receptor

407. Protecting and growing the tourism sector including marine tourism is a policy objective at local and national levels. The sensitivity of the receptor is therefore considered to be high.

Significance of the Effect

408. Overall, the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will, therefore, be of minor adverse significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

409. No tourism and recreation mitigation is considered necessary because the likely effect in the absence of further mitigation (beyond the designed in measures outlined in volume 2, chapter 13, section 13.10) is not significant in EIA terms.

Operation and Maintenance Phase

Magnitude of Impact

410. On the basis of a 35 year operation and maintenance period, the impact is assessed as long term.
411. Analysis of the topics set out above has found there are no direct or indirect tourism and recreation impacts of significance in EIA terms during construction phase. The magnitude of any adverse tourism effects is therefore assessed as negligible.

Sensitivity of the Receptor

412. Protecting and growing the tourism sector including marine tourism is a policy objective at local and national levels. The sensitivity of the receptor is therefore considered to be high.

Significance of the Effect

413. Overall, the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will, therefore, be of minor adverse significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

Secondary Mitigation and Residual Effect

414. No tourism and recreation mitigation is considered necessary because the likely effect in the absence of further mitigation (beyond the designed in measures outlined in volume 2, chapter 13, section 13.10) is not significant in EIA terms.

Decommissioning Phase

415. The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. It is anticipated that all structures above seabed level will be removed, but subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts.
416. No plans are in place to consider potential locations for decommissioning support ports. It is not known if this will be located in Scotland. Given the need for large lay down areas the four ports identified as being under consideration for the construction phase would have the greatest potential to accommodate decommissioning activities based on current circumstances.
417. On this basis the magnitude of effects would be lower than those set out for the construction phase under the baseline scenario. The maximum assessed significance relating to tourism is therefore negligible.
418. The assessment is therefore the same as for the construction phase – the significance of the impact is deemed to be of minor adverse significance. This is not significant in EIA terms.

18.12. Cumulative Effects Assessment

18.12.1.         Methodology

419. The CEA assesses the impact associated with the Proposed Development together with other relevant plans, projects and activities. Cumulative effects are therefore the combined effect of the Proposed Development in combination with the effects from a number of different projects, on the same receptor or resource. Please see volume 1, chapter 6 for detail on CEA methodology.
420. The projects and plans selected as relevant to the CEA presented within this chapter are based upon the results of a screening exercise (see volume 3, appendix 6.4 of the Offshore EIA Report). Volume 3, appendix 6.4 further provides information regarding how information pertaining to other plans and projects is gained and applied to the assessment Each project or plan has been considered on a case by case basis for screening in or out of this chapter's assessment based upon data confidence, effect-receptor pathways and the spatial/temporal scales involved.
421. In undertaking the CEA for the Proposed Development, it is important to bear in mind that other projects and plans under consideration will have differing potential for proceeding to an operational stage and hence a differing potential to ultimately contribute to a cumulative impact alongside the Proposed Development. Therefore, a tiered approach has be adopted. This provides a framework for placing relative weight upon the potential for each project/plan to be included in the CEA to ultimately be realised, based upon the project/plan’s current stage of maturity and certainty in the projects’ parameters. The tiered approach which will be utilised within the Proposed Development CEA employs the following tiers:

• tier 1 assessment – Proposed Development (Berwick Bank Wind Farm offshore) with Berwick Bank Wind Farm onshore;
• tier 2 assessment – All plans/projects assessed under Tier 1, plus projects which became operational since baseline characterisation, those under construction, those with consent and submitted but not yet determined;
• tier 3 assessment – All plans/projects assessed under Tier 2, plus those projects with a Scoping Report; and
• tier 4 assessment – All plans/projects assessed under Tier 3, which are reasonably foreseeable, plus those projects likely to come forward where an Agreement for Lease has been granted.
  422. The specific projects scoped into the CEA for socio-economics and tourism, are outlined in Table 18.85   Open ▸ . The screening of projects to be considered as part of the CEA has taken into account location (to determine whether there is realistic prospect of overlap with the study areas considered as part of this assessment, taking account of available evidence for schemes) and timing (to determine whether there is realistic prospect of overlap with the construction phase). Any offshore wind farms already within the operation and maintenance phase are assumed to form part of the existing baseline.
  423. The range of potential cumulative impacts that are identified and included in Table 18.87   Open ▸ below, is a subset of those considered for the Proposed Development alone. This is because some of the potential impacts identified and assessed for the Proposed Development alone, are localised and temporary in nature. It is considered therefore, that these potential impacts have limited or no potential to interact with similar changes associated with other plans or projects. These have therefore not been taken forward for detailed assessment.
  424. Similarly, some of the potential impacts considered within the Proposed Development alone assessment are specific to a particular phase of development (e.g. construction, operation and maintenance or decommissioning). Where the potential for cumulative effects with other plans or projects only have potential to occur where there is spatial or temporal overlap with the Proposed Development during certain phases of development, impacts associated with a certain phase may be omitted from further consideration where no plans or projects have been identified that have the potential for cumulative effects during this period.
  425. As described in volume 1, chapter 3, the Applicant is developing an additional export cable grid connection to Blyth, Northumberland (the Cambois connection). Applications for necessary consents (including marine licenses) will be applied for separately. The CEA for the Cambois connection is based on information presented in the Cambois connection Scoping Report (SSER, 2022e), submitted in October 2022. The Cambois connection has been screened into the CEA for offshore socioeconomics and tourism receptors.

Table 18.86: List of Developments Considered Within the CEA for Socio-Economics and Tourism

Maximum Design Scenario

426. The maximum design scenarios identified have been selected as those having the potential to result in the greatest effect on an identified receptor or receptor group. The cumulative effects presented and assessed in this section have been selected from the details provided in volume 1, chapter 3 of the Offshore EIA Report as well as the information available on other projects and plans (see volume 3, appendix 6.4), to inform a ‘maximum design scenario’. Effects of greater adverse significance are not predicted to arise should any other development scenario, based on details within the Project Design Envelope (e.g. different wind turbine layout), to that assessed here, be taken forward in the final design scheme.
427. Table 18.86   Open ▸ sets out which socio-economics local study areas are included in the maximum design scenario based on impact, phase, and data availability.

Table 18.87: Consideration of Cumulative Projects Based on Socio-Economics Local Study Area, Impact, and Phase

428. As per 18.3.3, potential impacts of the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning of the Proposed Development on tourism and recreation are indirect in nature. As per 18.3.3. it is necessary to derive an assessment of significance of cumulative effects on tourism and recreation from the findings elsewhere in the Offshore EIA Report, namely:

• accommodation, housing, and local services.
• seascape, landscape and visual impact (via review of volume 2, chapter 15);
• infrastructure and other users (via review of volume 2, chapter 17); and
• shipping and navigation (via review of volume 2, chapter 13).

Table 18.88: Maximum Design Scenario Considered for Each Impact as Part the Assessment of Likely Significant Cumulative Effects on Socio-Economics and Tourism

18.12.2.         Cumulative Effects Assessment

429. An assessment of the likely significance of the cumulative effects of the Proposed Development upon socio-economic and tourism receptors arising from each identified impact is given below.
430. Table 18.85   Open ▸ provides project specific details on which socio-economics local study areas will need to be considered throughout the CEA.
431. Where a project in Tier 2 to 4 has more than one scenario available for consideration, the lower scenario has been incorporated into the Baseline scenario assessment, and the maximum design scenario has been incorporated into the Enhanced scenario assessment.

Impact on Employment in Activities (Including Supply Chain) Associated with: Manufacturing, Construction and Installation; Operation and Maintenance; and Decommissioning

Tier 1

Construction phase

432. The potential Tier 1 cumulative impacts on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Baseline procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.88   Open ▸ . This will create opportunities to both safeguard existing employment and facilitate new employment.

Table 18.89: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) on Employment in Manufacturing, Construction and Installation Activities – Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of impact

433. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.89   Open ▸ .

Table 18.90: Comparison of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – Socio-Economics National Study Area

434. The magnitude of Tier 1 cumulative impacts for the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.90   Open ▸ .

Table 18.91: Magnitude of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts – Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23   Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

435. As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each Socio-Economics local study area and the Socio-Economics national study area is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

436. The significance of effect for the socio-economics national study area are set out in Table 18.91   Open ▸ .

Table 18.92: Significance of Tier 1 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) – Socio-Economics National Study Area

Alternative Procurement Scenarios

437. The assessment set out above has been undertaken on the Baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken to the Enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial effects are greater.
438. The potential Tier 1 cumulative impacts on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Enhanced procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.92   Open ▸ . An equivalent Enhanced scenario is also available for the Tier 1 project, which has also been adopted here.

Table 18.93: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts (Enhanced Procurement Scenario) on Employment in Manufacturing, Construction and Installation Activities – Socio-Economics National Study Area

439. There is a substantial increase in the Tier 1 cumulative impacts assessed during the construction phase under the Enhanced scenario at the socio-economics national study area level. The increase in employment impacts is judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects.
440. Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics national study area level the magnitude of the Tier 1 cumulative impact is deemed to be high beneficial and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will be of major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Operation and maintenance phase

441. The potential Tier 1 cumulative impacts on employment in operation and maintenance activities at the socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area level are set out in Table 18.93   Open ▸ . This will create opportunities to both safeguard existing employment and facilitate new employment.

Table 18.94: Potential Tier 1 Cumulative Impacts on Employment in Operation and Maintenance Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of impact

442. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.94   Open ▸ .

Table 18.95: Comparison of Tier 1 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

443. The magnitude of impact for each socio-economics local study area(s) and socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.95   Open ▸ .

Table 18.96: Magnitude of Tier 1 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23   Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

444. As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

445. The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics and tourism and national study area is set out in Table 18.96   Open ▸ .

Table 18.97: Significance of Tier 1 Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Decommissioning phase

446. Potential expenditure on decommissioning of Tier 1 project(s) could support employment in activities associated with decommissioning in the socio-economics local study areas and socio-economics national study area.
447. The scale and duration of decommissioning activity is uncertain. The exact approach to decommissioning is not yet confirmed as best practice at the time is not currently known. It is currently anticipated that offshore infrastructure would be retained and repurposed, subject to review in the future on the basis of likely environmental impacts.
448. On this basis the magnitude of effects is expected to be significantly lower than those set out for the construction phase under the baseline and enhanced scenarios.
449. The significance of Tier 1 cumulative effects assessed at construction phase for employment in manufacturing, construction, and installation activities are set out in Table 18.91   Open ▸ . On the basis of currently available evidence, it is concluded that the significance of effects for the decommissioning phase will be no greater than moderate beneficial across socio-economics local study areas and the socio-economics national study area. This is significant in EIA terms.

Tiers 2 to 4

Construction phase

450. The potential Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Baseline procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.97   Open ▸ . This will create opportunities to both safeguard existing employment and facilitate new employment.

Table 18.98: Potential Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) on Employment in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Magnitude of impact

451. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.98   Open ▸ .

Table 18.99: Comparison of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

452. The magnitude of Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts for the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.99   Open ▸ . The share of offshore wind sector employment within the socio-economics local study areas is inferred based on the nationally available data.

Table 18.100: Magnitude of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23   Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

453. As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

454. The significance of effect for the socio-economics local study area(s) and socio-economics national study area are set out in Table 18.100   Open ▸ .

Table 18.101: Significance of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Construction Phase Employment Impacts (Baseline Procurement Scenario) – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Alternative Procurement Scenarios

455. The assessment set out above has been undertaken on the Baseline procurement scenario. The same approach has been undertaken to the Enhanced scenario, as defined in the supporting Technical Impact Report (volume 3, appendix 18.1). This assumes an increased share of UK and Scottish content in the supply chain within the construction phase, so beneficial effects are predicted to be greater.
456. The potential Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts on employment in development, manufacturing and supply, and construction/installation activities under the Enhanced procurement scenario are set out in Table 18.101   Open ▸ . Equivalent ‘enhanced’ scenarios have also been adopted here, depending on availability by Tiers 2 to 4 projects.

Table 18.102: Potential Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Impacts (Enhanced Procurement Scenario) on Employment in Manufacturing, Construction, and Installation Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Areas and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of: Moray West Offshore Windfarm, 2018; and NorthConnect High Voltage Direct Current Cable Infrastructure, 2018

457. Under the Enhanced scenario, there is some increase in the employment impacts assessed at the socio-economics local study area level during construction phase. The quantitative assessment indicates some increase in the magnitude of impacts at this level. However, the change in employment impacts is not judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects – no change in significance of effect is assessed at this local study area level.
458. Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics local study area level the significance of effects assessed remain unchanged from the Baseline scenario as per Table 18.100   Open ▸ above.
459. There is a substantial increase in the Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts assessed during the construction phase under the Enhanced scenario at the socio-economics national study area level. This increases the assessed magnitude of impacts. The increase in employment impacts is judged to be substantial enough to justify increasing the assessed significance of effects.
460. Therefore, under the Enhanced scenario, at the socio-economics national study area level the magnitude of the Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impact is deemed to be high beneficial and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be high. The effect will be of major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Operation and maintenance phase

461. The potential Tiers 2 to 4 cumulative impacts on employment in operation and maintenance activities at the socio-economics local study area and socio-economics national study area level are set out in Table 18.102   Open ▸ . This will create opportunities to both safeguard existing employment and facilitate new employment.

Table 18.103: Potential Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Impacts on Employment in Operation and Maintenance Activities – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Source: HJA analysis of: Moray West Offshore Windfarm, 2018; and NorthConnect High Voltage Direct Current Cable Infrastructure, 2018

Magnitude of impact

462. A comparison of the assessed impact compared to the relevant baseline conditions for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.103   Open ▸ .

Table 18.104: Comparison of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts vs. Relevant Baseline Conditions – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

463. The magnitude of impact for each socio-economics local study area(s) and socio-economics national study area is set out in Table 18.104   Open ▸ .

Table 18.105: Magnitude of Tiers 2 to 4 Cumulative Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area

Note: Assigned values from Table 18.23   Open ▸ shown in brackets.

Sensitivity of the receptor

464. As per section 18.8, the sensitivity of the receptor for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics national study area is assessed as high.

Significance of the effect

465. The significance of the effect for each socio-economics local study area(s) and the socio-economics and tourism and national study area is set out in Table 18.105   Open ▸ .

Table 18.106: Significance of Tiers 2 to 4 Operation and Maintenance Phase Employment Impacts – by Socio-Economics Local Study Area(s) and Socio-Economics National Study Area