3.6 Gannet - Noss SPA

Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.17: Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.18:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.18: Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.19:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.19: The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.20: The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Table 3.27: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates.

Projection year	Additional adult mortalities	Median growth rates	2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	Median counterfactual of population size	Median counterfactual of growth rates	Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted
2062	0	1.043	1.028	1.056
2062	5	1.043	1.028	1.055	0.993	1.000	48.9
2062	10	1.042	1.028	1.055	0.985	1.000	47.7
2062	15	1.042	1.027	1.055	0.978	0.999	46.8
2062	20	1.042	1.027	1.055	0.971	0.999	45.8
2062	25	1.042	1.027	1.054	0.964	0.999	44.6
2062	30	1.042	1.027	1.054	0.957	0.999	43.5
2062	35	1.041	1.027	1.054	0.950	0.999	42.8
2062	40	1.041	1.026	1.054	0.943	0.998	41.8
2062	45	1.041	1.026	1.054	0.936	0.998	40.6
2062	50	1.041	1.026	1.053	0.929	0.998	39.3
2062	55	1.041	1.026	1.053	0.922	0.998	38.2
2062	60	1.040	1.026	1.053	0.915	0.998	37.1
2062	65	1.040	1.025	1.053	0.909	0.997	36.0
2062	70	1.040	1.025	1.053	0.902	0.997	35.1
2062	75	1.040	1.025	1.052	0.895	0.997	34.3
2062	80	1.039	1.025	1.052	0.889	0.997	33.1
2062	85	1.039	1.024	1.052	0.882	0.997	32.4
2062	90	1.039	1.024	1.052	0.876	0.996	31.4
2062	95	1.039	1.024	1.052	0.869	0.996	30.0
2062	100	1.039	1.024	1.051	0.863	0.996	29.3
2062	105	1.038	1.024	1.051	0.857	0.996	28.6
2077	0	1.043	1.031	1.053
2077	5	1.042	1.030	1.053	0.990	1.000	48.6
2077	10	1.042	1.030	1.052	0.979	1.000	47.3
2077	15	1.042	1.030	1.052	0.969	0.999	46.0
2077	20	1.042	1.030	1.052	0.959	0.999	44.5
2077	25	1.042	1.029	1.052	0.949	0.999	43.3
2077	30	1.041	1.029	1.052	0.939	0.999	42.0
2077	35	1.041	1.029	1.051	0.930	0.999	40.7
2077	40	1.041	1.029	1.051	0.920	0.998	39.6
2077	45	1.041	1.029	1.051	0.910	0.998	38.2
2077	50	1.041	1.028	1.051	0.901	0.998	37.0
2077	55	1.040	1.028	1.051	0.891	0.998	35.8
2077	60	1.040	1.028	1.050	0.882	0.998	34.5
2077	65	1.040	1.028	1.050	0.873	0.997	33.3
2077	70	1.040	1.028	1.050	0.864	0.997	32.0
2077	75	1.040	1.027	1.050	0.855	0.997	30.7
2077	80	1.039	1.027	1.050	0.846	0.997	29.2
2077	85	1.039	1.027	1.049	0.837	0.997	28.1
2077	90	1.039	1.027	1.049	0.828	0.996	27.1
2077	95	1.039	1.026	1.049	0.820	0.996	26.3
2077	100	1.038	1.026	1.049	0.811	0.996	25.2
2077	105	1.038	1.026	1.048	0.803	0.996	23.9

Table 3.28: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.00	0.00	166389.5	96169.7	268809.3
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	35.08	28.51	158087.7	91277.0	255456.7
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	35.37	27.72	158121.6	91299.6	255514.0
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	48.68	37.93	155136.6	89543.6	250710.7

Table 3.29: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2077)	Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.00	0.00	310427.7	166490.0	527785.4
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	35.08	28.51	288556.2	154568.9	491011.8
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	35.37	27.72	288654.8	154624.1	491166.8
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	48.68	37.93	280914.1	150408.7	478134.6

Table 3.30: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Ann. med. GR (2062)	Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI	Ann. med. GR (2077)	Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI
Baseline	0.1	0.00	0.00	1.043	1.028	1.056	1.043	1.031	1.053
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	35.08	28.51	1.041	1.027	1.054	1.041	1.029	1.051
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	35.37	27.72	1.041	1.027	1.054	1.041	1.029	1.051
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	48.68	37.93	1.041	1.026	1.054	1.041	1.029	1.051

Table 3.31: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)	Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)	Med. cnterfact GR (2077)
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	35.08	28.51	0.950	0.930	0.999	0.999
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	35.37	27.72	0.950	0.930	0.999	0.999
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	48.68	37.93	0.932	0.905	0.998	0.998

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