3.12 Guillemot - Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

Figure 3.41:
Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.41:  Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.42:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.42:  Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.43:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.43:  The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.44:
The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.44:  The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).


Table 3.57: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates.

Projection year

Additional adult mortalities

Median growth rates

2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates

97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates

Median counterfactual of population size

Median counterfactual of growth rates

Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted

2062

0

1.025

1.011

1.038

 

 

 

2062

10

1.025

1.011

1.037

0.990

1.000

48.3

2062

20

1.024

1.010

1.037

0.980

0.999

46.6

2062

30

1.024

1.010

1.037

0.970

0.999

45.4

2062

40

1.024

1.010

1.036

0.960

0.999

43.8

2062

50

1.023

1.009

1.036

0.950

0.999

42.2

2062

60

1.023

1.009

1.036

0.940

0.998

40.6

2062

70

1.023

1.009

1.036

0.930

0.998

39.0

2062

80

1.023

1.008

1.035

0.921

0.998

37.2

2062

90

1.022

1.008

1.035

0.911

0.997

35.6

2062

100

1.022

1.008

1.035

0.902

0.997

34.1

2062

110

1.022

1.008

1.034

0.893

0.997

32.7

2062

120

1.021

1.007

1.034

0.884

0.997

31.4

2062

130

1.021

1.007

1.034

0.874

0.996

30.2

2062

140

1.021

1.007

1.033

0.865

0.996

28.9

2062

150

1.021

1.006

1.033

0.857

0.996

27.8

2062

160

1.020

1.006

1.033

0.848

0.995

26.6

2062

170

1.020

1.006

1.033

0.839

0.995

25.5

2062

180

1.020

1.006

1.032

0.830

0.995

24.3

2062

190

1.019

1.005

1.032

0.822

0.995

23.3

2062

200

1.019

1.005

1.032

0.813

0.994

22.2

2077

0

1.025

1.013

1.036

 

 

 

2077

10

1.025

1.013

1.035

0.985

1.000

47.8

2077

20

1.024

1.013

1.035

0.971

0.999

46.4

2077

30

1.024

1.012

1.035

0.957

0.999

44.5

2077

40

1.024

1.012

1.034

0.943

0.999

42.3

2077

50

1.023

1.012

1.034

0.929

0.999

40.3

2077

60

1.023

1.012

1.034

0.916

0.998

38.3

2077

70

1.023

1.011

1.034

0.903

0.998

36.2

2077

80

1.022

1.011

1.033

0.890

0.998

34.6

2077

90

1.022

1.011

1.033

0.877

0.997

32.9

2077

100

1.022

1.010

1.033

0.864

0.997

31.2

2077

110

1.022

1.010

1.032

0.851

0.997

29.7

2077

120

1.021

1.010

1.032

0.839

0.997

27.9

2077

130

1.021

1.010

1.032

0.827

0.996

26.6

2077

140

1.021

1.009

1.031

0.815

0.996

24.8

2077

150

1.020

1.009

1.031

0.803

0.996

23.3

2077

160

1.020

1.009

1.031

0.791

0.995

21.8

2077

170

1.020

1.008

1.031

0.780

0.995

20.4

2077

180

1.020

1.008

1.030

0.768

0.995

18.9

2077

190

1.019

1.008

1.030

0.757

0.995

17.8

2077

200

1.019

1.007

1.030

0.746

0.994

16.5


Table 3.58: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. popn size (2062)

Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%

Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%

Baseline

0.07

0.0000

0.00

113267.4

65202.3

184901.2

Forth and Tay Consented developer approach

0.07

6.0259

6.16

112540.0

64784.4

183731.0

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a

0.07

12.5691

13.30

111732.6

64322.8

182431.1

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b

0.07

27.0954

28.09

110012.0

63336.3

179664.7

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.07

8.5259

8.06

112272.4

64630.1

183301.8

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.07

18.7700

17.91

111079.2

63945.1

181382.8

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.07

39.2954

37.09

108753.3

62607.3

177639.9

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.07

4.9259

4.76

112686.1

64867.3

183966.1

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.07

9.5691

9.40

112133.3

64550.8

183076.6

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.07

21.3954

20.79

110758.1

63760.6

180864.2


Table 3.59: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. popn size (2077)

Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%

Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%

Baseline

0.07

0.0000

0.00

163159.6

89005.9

292409.4

Forth and Tay Consented developer approach

0.07

6.0259

6.16

161674.4

88192.9

289762.2

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a

0.07

12.5691

13.30

160030.9

87293.3

286832.3

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b

0.07

27.0954

28.09

156557.3

85383.9

280621.2

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.07

8.5259

8.06

161130.4

87894.7

288793.0

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.07

18.7700

17.91

158709.5

86566.6

284475.0

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.07

39.2954

37.09

154028.2

83989.5

276114.9

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.07

4.9259

4.76

161973.2

88355.9

290295.1

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.07

9.5691

9.40

160846.5

87740.1

288289.2

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.07

21.3954

20.79

158059.5

86209.7

283315.4


Table 3.60: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Ann. med. GR (2062)

Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI

Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI

Ann. med. GR (2077)

Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI

Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI

Baseline

0.07

0.0000

0.00

1.025

1.011

1.038

1.025

1.013

1.036

Forth and Tay Consented developer approach

0.07

6.0259

6.16

1.025

1.011

1.037

1.025

1.013

1.035

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a

0.07

12.5691

13.30

1.025

1.010

1.037

1.024

1.013

1.035

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b

0.07

27.0954

28.09

1.024

1.010

1.037

1.024

1.013

1.035

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.07

8.5259

8.06

1.025

1.011

1.037

1.025

1.013

1.035

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.07

18.7700

17.91

1.024

1.010

1.037

1.024

1.013

1.035

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.07

39.2954

37.09

1.024

1.010

1.036

1.024

1.012

1.034

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.07

4.9259

4.76

1.025

1.011

1.037

1.025

1.013

1.035

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.07

9.5691

9.40

1.025

1.011

1.037

1.025

1.013

1.035

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.07

21.3954

20.79

1.024

1.010

1.037

1.024

1.013

1.035


Table 3.61: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)

Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)

Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)

Med. cnterfact GR (2077)

Forth and Tay Consented developer approach

0.07

6.0259

6.16

0.994

0.991

1.000

1.000

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a

0.07

12.5691

13.30

0.986

0.981

1.000

1.000

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b

0.07

27.0954

28.09

0.971

0.960

0.999

0.999

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.07

8.5259

8.06

0.991

0.988

1.000

1.000

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.07

18.7700

17.91

0.981

0.973

0.999

0.999

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.07

39.2954

37.09

0.960

0.944

0.999

0.999

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.07

4.9259

4.76

0.995

0.993

1.000

1.000

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.07

9.5691

9.40

0.990

0.986

1.000

1.000

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.07

21.3954

20.79

0.978

0.969

0.999

0.999