3.38 Razorbill - Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA

Figure 3.145:
Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median

Figure 3.145:  Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median

Figure 3.146:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.146:  Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.147:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.147:  The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.148:
The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years)

Figure 3.148:  The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years)


Table 3.188: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates

Projection year

Additional adult mortalities

Median growth rates

2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates

97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates

Median counterfactual of population size

Median counterfactual of growth rates

Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted

2062

0

1.012

0.991

1.032

 

 

 

2062

5

1.011

0.990

1.031

0.967

0.999

47.3

2062

10

1.010

0.989

1.030

0.935

0.998

44.5

2062

15

1.009

0.988

1.029

0.905

0.997

41.0

2062

20

1.008

0.987

1.028

0.875

0.996

37.7

2062

25

1.007

0.986

1.027

0.846

0.995

35.0

2062

30

1.006

0.985

1.026

0.818

0.994

32.0

2062

35

1.005

0.984

1.025

0.791

0.994

28.9

2062

40

1.004

0.983

1.024

0.765

0.993

26.4

2062

45

1.003

0.983

1.023

0.740

0.992

24.0

2062

50

1.002

0.982

1.022

0.715

0.991

21.5

2062

55

1.002

0.981

1.021

0.691

0.990

19.3

2062

60

1.001

0.980

1.020

0.668

0.989

17.4

2077

0

1.012

0.995

1.028

 

 

 

2077

5

1.011

0.994

1.027

0.954

0.999

45.8

2077

10

1.010

0.993

1.026

0.910

0.998

41.6

2077

15

1.009

0.992

1.025

0.868

0.997

38.1

2077

20

1.008

0.991

1.024

0.827

0.996

35.0

2077

25

1.007

0.990

1.023

0.789

0.995

31.6

2077

30

1.006

0.989

1.022

0.752

0.994

28.0

2077

35

1.005

0.988

1.021

0.717

0.994

24.6

2077

40

1.004

0.987

1.020

0.684

0.993

21.4

2077

45

1.003

0.986

1.020

0.652

0.992

18.7

2077

50

1.002

0.985

1.019

0.622

0.991

16.3

2077

55

1.001

0.984

1.018

0.593

0.990

14.0

2077

60

1.000

0.983

1.017

0.565

0.989

12.0

 

Table 3.189: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. popn size (2062)

Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%

Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%

Baseline

0.07

0.0000

0.00

10167.5

4257.9

22231.3

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.07

4.0518

2.50

9909.2

4149.7

21679.1

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.07

6.0570

3.95

9777.3

4093.9

21394.6

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.07

15.6450

9.79

9201.3

3850.5

20160.2

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.07

0.7518

0.52

10117.6

4236.6

22125.3

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.07

1.4570

1.05

10069.1

4216.6

22021.1

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.07

3.2450

2.29

9950.7

4166.4

21768.2


Table 3.190: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. popn size (2077)

Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%

Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%

Baseline

0.07

0.0000

0.00

12090.4

4514.7

29320.5

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.07

4.0518

2.50

11658.7

4352.4

28283.6

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.07

6.0570

3.95

11439.8

4269.2

27756.3

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.07

15.6450

9.79

10499.5

3913.4

25496.2

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.07

0.7518

0.52

12006.0

4482.8

29117.2

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.07

1.4570

1.05

11925.4

4452.4

28921.3

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.07

3.2450

2.29

11726.9

4378.3

28448.8


Table 3.191: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR  lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Ann. med. GR (2062)

Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI

Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI

Ann. med. GR (2077)

Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI

Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI

Baseline

0.07

0.0000

0.00

1.012

0.991

1.032

1.012

0.995

1.028

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.07

4.0518

2.50

1.011

0.990

1.031

1.011

0.994

1.027

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.07

6.0570

3.95

1.011

0.990

1.030

1.011

0.993

1.027

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.07

15.6450

9.79

1.009

0.988

1.029

1.009

0.992

1.025

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.07

0.7518

0.52

1.012

0.991

1.031

1.012

0.994

1.028

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.07

1.4570

1.05

1.012

0.991

1.031

1.011

0.994

1.028

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.07

3.2450

2.29

1.011

0.990

1.031

1.011

0.994

1.027


Table 3.192: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)

Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)

Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)

Med. cnterfact GR (2077)

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.07

4.0518

2.50

0.975

0.964

0.999

0.999

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.07

6.0570

3.95

0.962

0.946

0.999

0.999

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.07

15.6450

9.79

0.905

0.868

0.997

0.997

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.07

0.7518

0.52

0.995

0.993

1.000

1.000

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.07

1.4570

1.05

0.990

0.986

1.000

1.000

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.07

3.2450

2.29

0.979

0.970

0.999

0.999