3.3 Gannet - Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.5: Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.6:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.6: Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.7:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.7: The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.8: The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Table 3.12: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates.

Projection year	Additional adult mortalities	Median growth rates	2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	Median counterfactual of population size	Median counterfactual of growth rates	Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted
2062	0	1.050	1.036	1.063
2062	50	1.048	1.033	1.060	0.927	0.998	39.1
2062	100	1.046	1.031	1.058	0.859	0.996	28.5
2062	150	1.044	1.029	1.056	0.796	0.994	19.8
2062	200	1.042	1.027	1.054	0.737	0.992	13.4
2062	250	1.039	1.025	1.052	0.683	0.989	8.6
2062	300	1.037	1.022	1.049	0.633	0.987	4.7
2062	350	1.035	1.020	1.047	0.586	0.985	2.8
2062	400	1.033	1.018	1.045	0.542	0.983	1.5
2062	450	1.030	1.016	1.043	0.502	0.981	0.8
2062	500	1.028	1.014	1.041	0.465	0.979	0.4
2062	550	1.026	1.011	1.038	0.430	0.977	0.1
2062	600	1.024	1.009	1.036	0.398	0.975	0.1
2062	650	1.022	1.007	1.034	0.368	0.973	0.0
2062	700	1.019	1.005	1.032	0.340	0.971	0.0
2062	750	1.017	1.002	1.029	0.315	0.968	0.0
2062	800	1.015	1.000	1.027	0.291	0.966	0.0
2062	850	1.013	0.998	1.025	0.269	0.964	0.0
2062	900	1.011	0.996	1.023	0.249	0.962	0.0
2062	950	1.008	0.994	1.021	0.230	0.960	0.0
2062	1000	1.006	0.991	1.018	0.212	0.958	0.0
2077	0	1.050	1.038	1.061
2077	50	1.048	1.036	1.058	0.898	0.998	35.9
2077	100	1.046	1.034	1.056	0.806	0.996	23.7
2077	150	1.044	1.031	1.054	0.723	0.994	14.8
2077	200	1.041	1.029	1.052	0.649	0.992	8.6
2077	250	1.039	1.027	1.049	0.582	0.989	4.7
2077	300	1.037	1.025	1.047	0.522	0.987	2.1
2077	350	1.035	1.023	1.045	0.468	0.985	1.0
2077	400	1.032	1.020	1.043	0.420	0.983	0.4
2077	450	1.030	1.018	1.041	0.376	0.981	0.2
2077	500	1.028	1.016	1.038	0.337	0.979	0.1
2077	550	1.026	1.014	1.036	0.302	0.977	0.0
2077	600	1.024	1.011	1.034	0.270	0.975	0.0
2077	650	1.021	1.009	1.032	0.242	0.973	0.0
2077	700	1.019	1.007	1.030	0.217	0.970	0.0
2077	750	1.017	1.005	1.027	0.194	0.968	0.0
2077	800	1.015	1.003	1.025	0.173	0.966	0.0
2077	850	1.013	1.000	1.023	0.155	0.964	0.0
2077	900	1.010	0.998	1.021	0.139	0.962	0.0
2077	950	1.008	0.996	1.018	0.124	0.960	0.0
2077	1000	1.006	0.994	1.016	0.111	0.958	0.0

Table 3.13: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.00	0.00	243126.9	141247.1	386265.7
North Sea As-built: developer approach	0.1	301.88	35.78	178439.1	103641.7	284276.7
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	302.03	35.90	178399.9	103618.7	284214.6
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	438.26	48.92	155369.2	90305.5	247695.9
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	351.48	36.38	170210.6	98862.6	271188.9
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	351.99	36.51	170113.7	98806.2	271038.5
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	487.86	49.52	148144.1	86099.4	236140.1

Table 3.14: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2077)	Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.00	0.00	504370.9	268580.1	871781.6
North Sea As-built: developer approach	0.1	301.88	35.78	325679.4	173047.4	563389.0
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	302.03	35.90	325578.1	172993.9	563218.0
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	438.26	48.92	267978.8	142316.9	464201.1
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	351.48	36.38	304501.0	161782.7	526944.8
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	351.99	36.51	304256.7	161652.3	526525.9
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	487.86	49.52	250668.4	133095.7	434411.2

Table 3.15: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Ann. med. GR (2062)	Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI	Ann. med. GR (2077)	Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI
Baseline	0.1	0.00	0.00	1.050	1.036	1.063	1.050	1.038	1.061
North Sea As-built: developer approach	0.1	301.88	35.78	1.041	1.027	1.054	1.041	1.029	1.052
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	302.03	35.90	1.041	1.027	1.054	1.041	1.029	1.052
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	438.26	48.92	1.037	1.023	1.050	1.037	1.025	1.048
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	351.48	36.38	1.040	1.025	1.052	1.040	1.028	1.050
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	351.99	36.51	1.040	1.025	1.052	1.040	1.028	1.050
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	487.86	49.52	1.036	1.022	1.048	1.036	1.024	1.046

Table 3.16: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)	Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)	Med. cnterfact GR (2077)
North Sea As-built: developer approach	0.1	301.88	35.78	0.734	0.646	0.991	0.991
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	302.03	35.90	0.733	0.646	0.991	0.991
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	438.26	48.92	0.639	0.531	0.988	0.988
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	351.48	36.38	0.699	0.604	0.990	0.990
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	351.99	36.51	0.699	0.603	0.990	0.990
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	487.86	49.52	0.609	0.497	0.986	0.986

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