3.25 Kittiwake - North Caithness Cliffs SPA

Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.93: Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.94:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.94: Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.95:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.95: The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.96 The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Table 3.122: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates.

Projection year	Additional adult mortalities	Median growth rates	2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	Median counterfactual of population size	Median counterfactual of growth rates	Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted
2062	0	0.992	0.966	1.017
2062	10	0.991	0.965	1.015	0.943	0.998	45.8
2062	20	0.989	0.963	1.013	0.890	0.997	41.1
2062	30	0.987	0.962	1.012	0.839	0.995	36.9
2062	40	0.986	0.960	1.010	0.791	0.994	32.3
2062	50	0.984	0.958	1.008	0.746	0.992	28.7
2062	60	0.983	0.957	1.007	0.703	0.990	25.2
2062	70	0.981	0.955	1.005	0.663	0.989	21.8
2062	80	0.979	0.954	1.004	0.625	0.987	18.7
2062	90	0.978	0.952	1.002	0.589	0.985	16.2
2062	100	0.976	0.950	1.000	0.555	0.984	13.0
2062	110	0.975	0.949	0.999	0.523	0.982	11.2
2062	120	0.973	0.947	0.997	0.493	0.981	9.6
2062	130	0.971	0.946	0.995	0.464	0.979	8.0
2062	140	0.970	0.944	0.994	0.437	0.977	6.5
2062	150	0.968	0.942	0.992	0.412	0.976	5.6
2062	160	0.967	0.941	0.990	0.388	0.974	4.5
2062	170	0.965	0.939	0.989	0.365	0.972	3.5
2062	180	0.963	0.938	0.987	0.344	0.971	2.8
2062	190	0.962	0.936	0.986	0.324	0.969	2.2
2062	200	0.960	0.934	0.984	0.305	0.968	1.7
2077	0	0.992	0.971	1.013
2077	10	0.990	0.969	1.011	0.920	0.998	44.7
2077	20	0.989	0.968	1.009	0.847	0.997	39.8
2077	30	0.987	0.966	1.008	0.779	0.995	34.5
2077	40	0.986	0.965	1.006	0.717	0.993	29.7
2077	50	0.984	0.963	1.005	0.660	0.992	25.3
2077	60	0.982	0.961	1.003	0.607	0.990	21.1
2077	70	0.981	0.960	1.001	0.558	0.989	17.6
2077	80	0.979	0.958	1.000	0.513	0.987	13.9
2077	90	0.978	0.957	0.998	0.472	0.985	11.4
2077	100	0.976	0.955	0.997	0.433	0.984	9.1
2077	110	0.974	0.953	0.995	0.398	0.982	7.5
2077	120	0.973	0.952	0.993	0.366	0.980	5.6
2077	130	0.971	0.950	0.992	0.336	0.979	4.3
2077	140	0.970	0.949	0.990	0.309	0.977	3.2
2077	150	0.968	0.947	0.988	0.284	0.976	2.4
2077	160	0.966	0.945	0.987	0.261	0.974	1.8
2077	170	0.965	0.944	0.985	0.239	0.972	1.0
2077	180	0.963	0.942	0.984	0.220	0.971	0.6
2077	190	0.961	0.941	0.982	0.202	0.969	0.5
2077	200	0.960	0.939	0.980	0.185	0.967	0.3

Table 3.123: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.0000	5332.8	1765.1	15193.8
North Sea As-built: develper approach	0.1	33.679	14.7302	4602.9	1518.8	13139.5
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	43.419	19.8103	4402.1	1451.7	12582.0
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	58.710	26.5900	4112.7	1355.8	11786.3
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	37.579	16.7302	4521.5	1491.9	12914.5
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	47.219	21.8103	4325.6	1426.0	12371.5
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	62.510	28.5900	4041.3	1331.3	11588.0
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	2.279	1.3302	5276.9	1746.1	15034.6
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	7.619	3.8103	5153.1	1704.3	14686.5
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	10.210	5.0900	5093.8	1684.5	14518.7

Table 3.124: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.0000	5332.8	1765.1	15193.8
North Sea As-built: develper approach	0.1	35.942	15.6200	4558.7	1504.0	13016.9
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	43.419	19.8103	4402.1	1451.7	12582.0
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	58.710	26.5900	4112.7	1355.8	11786.3
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	39.842	17.6200	4478.4	1477.2	12794.1
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	47.219	21.8103	4325.6	1426.0	12371.5
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	62.510	28.5900	4041.3	1331.3	11588.0
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	4.541	2.2200	5226.3	1728.6	14891.3
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	7.619	3.8103	5153.1	1704.3	14686.5
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	10.210	5.0900	5093.8	1684.5	14518.7

Table 3.125: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR (2077) lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2077)	Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.0000	4767.8	1368.7	15462.9
North Sea As-built: develper approach	0.1	35.942	15.6200	3821.9	1091.7	12434.2
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	43.419	19.8103	3638.0	1038.6	11845.9
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	58.710	26.5900	3306.3	942.9	10788.2
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	39.842	17.6200	3727.5	1064.5	12130.3
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	47.219	21.8103	3549.2	1013.3	11561.4
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	62.510	28.5900	3225.3	919.7	10528.1
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	4.541	2.2200	4633.4	1329.2	15032.0
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	7.619	3.8103	4543.3	1302.6	14742.0
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	10.210	5.0900	4469.4	1281.7	14506.2

Table 3.126: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Ann. med. GR (2062)	Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI	Ann. med. GR (2077)	Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.0000	0.992	0.966	1.017	0.992	0.971	1.013
North Sea As-built: develper approach	0.1	35.942	15.6200	0.988	0.962	1.012	0.988	0.967	1.008
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	43.419	19.8103	0.987	0.961	1.011	0.987	0.966	1.007
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	58.710	26.5900	0.985	0.959	1.009	0.985	0.964	1.006
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	39.842	17.6200	0.987	0.962	1.012	0.987	0.966	1.008
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	47.219	21.8103	0.987	0.961	1.011	0.986	0.965	1.007
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	62.510	28.5900	0.985	0.959	1.009	0.985	0.963	1.005
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	4.541	2.2200	0.992	0.966	1.016	0.992	0.970	1.012
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	7.619	3.8103	0.991	0.965	1.016	0.991	0.970	1.012
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	10.210	5.0900	0.991	0.965	1.015	0.991	0.970	1.011

Table 3.127: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)	Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)	Med. cnterfact GR (2077)
North Sea As-built: develper approach	0.1	35.942	15.6200	0.855	0.801	0.996	0.996
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	43.419	19.8103	0.826	0.763	0.995	0.995
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	58.710	26.5900	0.772	0.693	0.993	0.993
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	39.842	17.6200	0.840	0.781	0.995	0.995
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	47.219	21.8103	0.811	0.744	0.994	0.994
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	62.510	28.5900	0.759	0.677	0.992	0.992
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	4.541	2.2200	0.980	0.972	0.999	0.999
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	7.619	3.8103	0.966	0.953	0.999	0.999
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	10.210	5.0900	0.955	0.937	0.999	0.999

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