3.33 Puffin - Farne Islands SPA

Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.125 Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median

Figure 3.126:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.126: Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.127:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.127: The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.128: The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years)

Table 3.163: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates

Projection year	Additional adult mortalities	Median growth rates	2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	Median counterfactual of population size	Median counterfactual of growth rates	Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted
2062	0	1.041	1.016	1.062
2062	10	1.041	1.016	1.062	0.995	1.000	49.5
2062	20	1.041	1.016	1.062	0.991	1.000	49.0
2062	30	1.040	1.016	1.062	0.986	1.000	48.6
2062	40	1.040	1.016	1.062	0.981	0.999	48.1
2062	50	1.040	1.016	1.061	0.977	0.999	47.6
2062	60	1.040	1.016	1.061	0.972	0.999	47.2
2062	70	1.040	1.015	1.061	0.967	0.999	46.9
2062	80	1.040	1.015	1.061	0.963	0.999	46.5
2062	90	1.040	1.015	1.061	0.958	0.999	46.2
2062	100	1.039	1.015	1.061	0.954	0.999	45.7
2062	110	1.039	1.015	1.061	0.949	0.999	45.3
2062	120	1.039	1.015	1.061	0.945	0.998	44.7
2062	130	1.039	1.015	1.060	0.940	0.998	44.3
2062	140	1.039	1.015	1.060	0.936	0.998	43.9
2062	150	1.039	1.014	1.060	0.932	0.998	43.3
2062	160	1.039	1.014	1.060	0.927	0.998	43.0
2062	170	1.038	1.014	1.060	0.923	0.998	42.6
2062	180	1.038	1.014	1.060	0.918	0.998	42.2
2062	190	1.038	1.014	1.060	0.914	0.998	41.7
2062	200	1.038	1.014	1.059	0.910	0.997	41.3
2077	0	1.041	1.021	1.058
2077	10	1.040	1.021	1.058	0.993	1.000	49.5
2077	20	1.040	1.021	1.058	0.987	1.000	48.9
2077	30	1.040	1.021	1.058	0.980	1.000	48.4
2077	40	1.040	1.020	1.057	0.974	0.999	47.9
2077	50	1.040	1.020	1.057	0.967	0.999	47.5
2077	60	1.040	1.020	1.057	0.961	0.999	47.0
2077	70	1.040	1.020	1.057	0.954	0.999	46.5
2077	80	1.040	1.020	1.057	0.948	0.999	45.9
2077	90	1.039	1.020	1.057	0.942	0.999	45.5
2077	100	1.039	1.020	1.057	0.935	0.999	45.0
2077	110	1.039	1.019	1.057	0.929	0.999	44.6
2077	120	1.039	1.019	1.056	0.923	0.998	44.2
2077	130	1.039	1.019	1.056	0.917	0.998	43.6
2077	140	1.039	1.019	1.056	0.911	0.998	43.0
2077	150	1.039	1.019	1.056	0.905	0.998	42.5
2077	160	1.038	1.019	1.056	0.898	0.998	41.9
2077	170	1.038	1.019	1.056	0.892	0.998	41.4
2077	180	1.038	1.018	1.056	0.887	0.998	41.0
2077	190	1.038	1.018	1.055	0.881	0.998	40.5
2077	200	1.038	1.018	1.055	0.875	0.997	40.0

Table 3.164: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	483380.5	196815.1	1079847
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	4.8177	6.69	482228.7	196336.1	1077315
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	17.3100	23.75	479280.4	195110.2	1070825
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	28.8000	39.44	476591.8	193989.1	1064891
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	3.6177	4.89	482525.2	196461.9	1077968
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	12.9100	17.45	480338.3	195551.5	1073157
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	21.4000	28.94	478355.0	194724.9	1068778

Table 3.165: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2077)	Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	878307.8	312731.7	2183913
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	4.8177	6.69	875342.9	311657.3	2176721
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	17.3100	23.75	867763.7	308909.4	2158295
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	28.8000	39.44	860850.0	306402.4	2141478
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	3.6177	4.89	876105.5	311933.4	2178566
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	12.9100	17.45	870487.0	309896.8	2164905
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	21.4000	28.94	865377.6	308045.7	2152482

Table 3.166: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Ann. med. GR (2062)	Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI	Ann. med. GR (2077)	Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	1.041	1.016	1.062	1.041	1.021	1.058
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	4.8177	6.69	1.041	1.016	1.062	1.041	1.021	1.058
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	17.3100	23.75	1.041	1.016	1.062	1.040	1.021	1.058
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	28.8000	39.44	1.040	1.016	1.062	1.040	1.021	1.058
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	3.6177	4.89	1.041	1.016	1.062	1.041	1.021	1.058
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	12.9100	17.45	1.041	1.016	1.062	1.040	1.021	1.058
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	21.4000	28.94	1.040	1.016	1.062	1.040	1.021	1.058

Table 3.167: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)	Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)	Med. cnterfact GR (2077)
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	4.8177	6.69	0.998	0.997	1	1
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	17.3100	23.75	0.992	0.988	1	1
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	28.8000	39.44	0.986	0.980	1	1
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	3.6177	4.89	0.998	0.998	1	1
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	12.9100	17.45	0.994	0.991	1	1
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	21.4000	28.94	0.990	0.985	1	1

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