3.36 Razorbill - St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.137 Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median

Figure 3.138:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.138: Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.139:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.139: The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.140: The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years)

Table 3.178: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates

Projection year	Additional adult mortalities	Median growth rates	2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	Median counterfactual of population size	Median counterfactual of growth rates	Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted
2062	0	1.044	1.028	1.060
2062	10	1.041	1.025	1.057	0.902	0.997	36.6
2062	20	1.038	1.022	1.054	0.813	0.994	25.0
2062	30	1.035	1.019	1.051	0.733	0.991	15.4
2062	40	1.032	1.016	1.048	0.660	0.989	9.5
2062	50	1.029	1.013	1.045	0.595	0.986	5.1
2062	60	1.026	1.010	1.042	0.535	0.983	2.5
2062	70	1.023	1.007	1.039	0.482	0.980	1.1
2062	80	1.020	1.004	1.036	0.434	0.977	0.5
2062	90	1.017	1.001	1.033	0.390	0.974	0.1
2077	0	1.044	1.030	1.057
2077	10	1.041	1.027	1.054	0.864	0.997	33.7
2077	20	1.038	1.024	1.051	0.746	0.994	20.8
2077	30	1.035	1.021	1.048	0.643	0.991	11.0
2077	40	1.032	1.018	1.045	0.555	0.989	5.0
2077	50	1.029	1.015	1.042	0.479	0.986	2.1
2077	60	1.026	1.012	1.039	0.412	0.983	0.7
2077	70	1.023	1.009	1.036	0.355	0.980	0.3
2077	80	1.020	1.006	1.033	0.306	0.977	0.1
2077	90	1.017	1.003	1.030	0.263	0.974	0.0

Table 3.179: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	23084.9	12393.1	41062.5
Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	0.07	3.2199	3.05	22346.1	11988.6	39763.7
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	0.07	9.6885	9.70	20883.0	11187.6	37188.1
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	17.3200	16.91	19326.2	10339.0	34450.5
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	4.9199	4.05	22023.3	11813.8	39196.1
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	11.7885	10.90	20511.5	10985.9	36537.2
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	23.5216	20.51	18327.1	9795.0	32687.8
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	2.6199	2.65	22466.1	12053.9	39974.7
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	8.2885	8.70	21149.9	11333.2	37661.3
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	14.4216	14.91	19839.8	10617.5	35353.8

Table 3.180: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2077)	Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	44161.1	21771.8	85830.6
Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	0.07	3.2199	3.05	42173.0	20774.4	81995.4
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	0.07	9.6885	9.70	38299.8	18847.9	74539.1
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	17.3200	16.91	34334.3	16865.4	66874.1
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	4.9199	4.05	41312.3	20346.9	80346.7
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	11.7885	10.90	37348.8	18371.2	72708.8
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	23.5216	20.51	31847.6	15630.2	62115.2
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	2.6199	2.65	42492.3	20934.3	82611.9
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	8.2885	8.70	38996.6	19195.4	75878.9
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	14.4216	14.91	35627.4	17511.4	69354.8

Table 3.181: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR (2062) lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Ann. med. GR (2062)	Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI	Ann. med. GR (2077)	Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	1.044	1.028	1.060	1.044	1.030	1.057
Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	0.07	3.2199	3.05	1.043	1.027	1.059	1.043	1.029	1.056
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	0.07	9.6885	9.70	1.041	1.025	1.057	1.041	1.027	1.054
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	17.3200	16.91	1.039	1.023	1.055	1.039	1.025	1.052
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	4.9199	4.05	1.043	1.026	1.058	1.043	1.029	1.056
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	11.7885	10.90	1.041	1.024	1.056	1.041	1.027	1.054
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	23.5216	20.51	1.038	1.021	1.053	1.038	1.024	1.050
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	2.6199	2.65	1.044	1.027	1.059	1.043	1.029	1.056
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	8.2885	8.70	1.042	1.025	1.057	1.042	1.028	1.054
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	14.4216	14.91	1.040	1.023	1.055	1.040	1.026	1.053

Table 3.182: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)	Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)	Med. cnterfact GR (2077)
Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	0.07	3.2199	3.05	0.968	0.955	0.999	0.999
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	0.07	9.6885	9.70	0.904	0.867	0.997	0.997
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	17.3200	16.91	0.837	0.777	0.995	0.995
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	4.9199	4.05	0.954	0.935	0.999	0.999
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	11.7885	10.90	0.889	0.846	0.997	0.997
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	23.5216	20.51	0.794	0.721	0.994	0.994
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	2.6199	2.65	0.973	0.962	0.999	0.999
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	8.2885	8.70	0.916	0.883	0.998	0.998
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	14.4216	14.91	0.859	0.807	0.996	0.996

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