3.24 Kittiwake - East Caithness Cliffs SPA

Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.89 Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median

Figure 3.90:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.90: Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.91:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.91: The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.92: The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years)

Table 3.117: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates

Projection year	Additional adult mortalities	Median growth rates	2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	Median counterfactual of population size	Median counterfactual of growth rates	Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted
2062	0	1.009	0.984	1.031
2062	50	1.007	0.983	1.030	0.955	0.999	46.3
2062	100	1.006	0.981	1.029	0.912	0.997	43.0
2062	150	1.005	0.980	1.028	0.870	0.996	39.3
2062	200	1.003	0.979	1.026	0.831	0.995	35.7
2062	250	1.002	0.977	1.025	0.793	0.994	32.9
2062	300	1.001	0.976	1.024	0.757	0.992	29.5
2062	350	1.000	0.975	1.022	0.722	0.991	26.5
2062	400	0.998	0.974	1.021	0.689	0.990	23.8
2062	450	0.997	0.972	1.020	0.658	0.988	20.8
2062	500	0.996	0.971	1.018	0.628	0.987	18.4
2062	550	0.994	0.970	1.017	0.599	0.986	16.0
2062	600	0.993	0.969	1.016	0.572	0.985	14.0
2062	650	0.992	0.967	1.014	0.545	0.983	12.3
2062	700	0.990	0.966	1.013	0.520	0.982	10.4
2062	750	0.989	0.965	1.012	0.496	0.981	8.7
2062	800	0.988	0.963	1.010	0.473	0.979	7.2
2077	0	1.009	0.988	1.027
2077	50	1.007	0.987	1.026	0.936	0.999	45.7
2077	100	1.006	0.986	1.024	0.877	0.997	41.1
2077	150	1.005	0.985	1.023	0.821	0.996	37.2
2077	200	1.004	0.983	1.022	0.769	0.995	33.0
2077	250	1.002	0.982	1.020	0.720	0.994	29.1
2077	300	1.001	0.981	1.019	0.674	0.992	25.0
2077	350	1.000	0.979	1.018	0.630	0.991	21.6
2077	400	0.998	0.978	1.016	0.590	0.990	18.3
2077	450	0.997	0.977	1.015	0.552	0.988	15.5
2077	500	0.996	0.976	1.014	0.517	0.987	13.2
2077	550	0.994	0.974	1.013	0.483	0.986	11.0
2077	600	0.993	0.973	1.011	0.452	0.985	9.3
2077	650	0.992	0.972	1.010	0.423	0.983	7.4
2077	700	0.991	0.970	1.009	0.396	0.982	5.6
2077	750	0.989	0.969	1.007	0.370	0.981	4.7
2077	800	0.988	0.968	1.006	0.346	0.979	3.7

Table 3.118: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.00	73730.0	26111.5	193755.7
North Sea As-built: develper approach	0.1	276.521	74.45	62463.7	22101.7	164898.7
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	277.605	88.37	62124.7	21978.2	163990.0
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	395.616	120.80	57868.2	20485.8	153026.4
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	291.921	82.55	61805.2	21869.1	163209.2
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	293.105	96.47	61467.3	21745.2	162304.8
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	411.116	128.90	57257.2	20268.8	151428.1
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	18.385	8.85	72824.7	25786.2	191428.1
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	30.705	15.17	72213.6	25567.1	189858.2
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	41.116	20.30	71706.7	25385.7	188554.0

Table 3.119: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2077)	Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.00	84181.3	26789.3	240754.6
North Sea As-built: develper approach	0.1	276.521	74.45	66602.5	21089.4	190803.1
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	277.605	88.37	66102.9	20935.3	189401.8
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	395.616	120.80	59771.7	18874.9	171410.5
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	291.921	82.55	65612.8	20768.4	187991.7
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	293.105	96.47	65110.3	20615.5	186593.0
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	411.116	128.90	58877.9	18585.8	168869.0
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	18.385	8.85	82726.2	26321.3	236628.7
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	30.705	15.17	81749.3	26007.7	233863.0
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	41.116	20.30	80946.3	25748.0	231571.4

Table 3.120: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Ann. med. GR (2062)	Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI	Ann. med. GR (2077)	Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.00	1.009	0.984	1.031	1.009	0.988	1.027
North Sea As-built: develper approach	0.1	276.521	74.45	1.004	0.979	1.027	1.004	0.984	1.022
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	277.605	88.37	1.004	0.979	1.027	1.004	0.984	1.022
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	395.616	120.80	1.002	0.977	1.025	1.002	0.982	1.020
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	291.921	82.55	1.004	0.979	1.026	1.004	0.984	1.022
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	293.105	96.47	1.004	0.979	1.026	1.004	0.983	1.022
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	411.116	128.90	1.002	0.977	1.024	1.002	0.981	1.020
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	18.385	8.85	1.008	0.983	1.031	1.008	0.988	1.027
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	30.705	15.17	1.008	0.983	1.031	1.008	0.988	1.026
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	41.116	20.30	1.008	0.983	1.031	1.008	0.988	1.026

Table 3.121: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)	Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)	Med. cnterfact GR (2077)
North Sea As-built: develper approach	0.1	276.521	74.45	0.847	0.791	0.995	0.995
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	277.605	88.37	0.843	0.785	0.995	0.995
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	395.616	120.80	0.785	0.710	0.993	0.993
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	291.921	82.55	0.838	0.780	0.995	0.995
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	293.105	96.47	0.834	0.774	0.995	0.995
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	411.116	128.90	0.777	0.700	0.993	0.993
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	18.385	8.85	0.988	0.983	1.000	1.000
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	30.705	15.17	0.980	0.971	0.999	0.999
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	41.116	20.30	0.973	0.962	0.999	0.999

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