3.37 Razorbill - Fowlsheugh SPA

Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.141: Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median

Figure 3.142:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.142: Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.143:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.143: The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.144: The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years)

Table 3.183: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates

Projection year	Additional adult mortalities	Median growth rates	2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	Median counterfactual of population size	Median counterfactual of growth rates	Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted
2062	0	1.012	0.991	1.032
2062	10	1.011	0.990	1.031	0.978	0.999	48.1
2062	20	1.011	0.990	1.030	0.956	0.999	46.4
2062	30	1.010	0.989	1.030	0.934	0.998	44.5
2062	40	1.009	0.988	1.029	0.913	0.997	42.0
2062	50	1.009	0.988	1.028	0.893	0.997	39.8
2062	60	1.008	0.987	1.028	0.873	0.996	37.6
2062	70	1.007	0.986	1.027	0.853	0.996	35.8
2062	80	1.007	0.986	1.026	0.834	0.995	33.6
2062	90	1.006	0.985	1.026	0.815	0.994	31.6
2062	100	1.005	0.985	1.025	0.797	0.994	29.5
2062	110	1.005	0.984	1.025	0.779	0.993	27.7
2062	120	1.004	0.983	1.024	0.761	0.992	26.0
2062	130	1.004	0.983	1.023	0.744	0.992	24.5
2062	140	1.003	0.982	1.023	0.727	0.991	22.7
2062	150	1.002	0.981	1.022	0.710	0.991	21.1
2062	160	1.002	0.981	1.021	0.694	0.990	19.6
2062	170	1.001	0.980	1.021	0.679	0.989	18.2
2062	180	1.000	0.980	1.020	0.663	0.989	16.9
2062	190	1.000	0.979	1.019	0.648	0.988	15.5
2062	200	0.999	0.978	1.019	0.634	0.987	14.6
2077	0	1.012	0.995	1.028
2077	10	1.011	0.994	1.027	0.968	0.999	47.0
2077	20	1.010	0.993	1.027	0.938	0.999	44.5
2077	30	1.010	0.993	1.026	0.908	0.998	41.5
2077	40	1.009	0.992	1.025	0.879	0.997	39.1
2077	50	1.009	0.991	1.025	0.851	0.997	36.6
2077	60	1.008	0.991	1.024	0.824	0.996	34.7
2077	70	1.007	0.990	1.024	0.798	0.996	32.2
2077	80	1.007	0.989	1.023	0.773	0.995	30.0
2077	90	1.006	0.989	1.022	0.748	0.994	27.8
2077	100	1.005	0.988	1.022	0.724	0.994	25.4
2077	110	1.005	0.988	1.021	0.701	0.993	22.9
2077	120	1.004	0.987	1.020	0.679	0.992	20.9
2077	130	1.003	0.986	1.020	0.657	0.992	19.1
2077	140	1.003	0.986	1.019	0.636	0.991	17.4
2077	150	1.002	0.985	1.018	0.616	0.991	15.8
2077	160	1.002	0.984	1.018	0.596	0.990	14.2
2077	170	1.001	0.984	1.017	0.577	0.989	12.9
2077	180	1.000	0.983	1.016	0.559	0.989	11.6
2077	190	1.000	0.982	1.016	0.541	0.988	10.4
2077	200	0.999	0.982	1.015	0.524	0.987	9.5

Table 3.184: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	29932.8	12537.7	65440.6
Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	0.07	15.6408	12.85	28834.2	12076.9	63085.9
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	0.07	50.9348	42.76	26485.3	11086.3	58012.8
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	88.2500	73.38	24223.7	10137.0	53142.0
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	20.7408	15.75	28526.8	11947.0	62426.4
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	57.2348	46.46	26134.0	10937.6	57256.7
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	106.7000	84.18	23292.7	9743.0	51129.5
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	4.3408	3.25	29634.8	12412.3	64801.2
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	12.7348	9.76	29058.8	12170.4	63568.1
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	22.9538	17.38	28382.2	11887.1	62116.9

Table 3.185: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2077)	Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	35592.6	13292.0	86311.6
Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	0.07	15.6408	12.85	33759.4	12605.6	81899.6
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	0.07	50.9348	42.76	29913.7	11152.8	72630.0
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	88.2500	73.38	26370.2	9829.6	64056.2
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	20.7408	15.75	33252.4	12412.7	80678.9
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	57.2348	46.46	29354.0	10941.4	71280.5
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	106.7000	84.18	24939.7	9290.4	60625.5
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	4.3408	3.25	35092.2	13105.4	85109.1
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	12.7348	9.76	34132.1	12744.9	82797.8
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	22.9538	17.38	33014.4	12322.6	80108.2

Table 3.186: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Ann. med. GR (2062)	Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI	Ann. med. GR (2077)	Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	1.012	0.991	1.032	1.012	0.995	1.028
Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	0.07	15.6408	12.85	1.011	0.990	1.031	1.011	0.994	1.027
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	0.07	50.9348	42.76	1.008	0.988	1.028	1.008	0.991	1.025
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	88.2500	73.38	1.006	0.985	1.026	1.006	0.989	1.022
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	20.7408	15.75	1.011	0.990	1.030	1.010	0.993	1.027
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	57.2348	46.46	1.008	0.987	1.028	1.008	0.991	1.024
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	106.7000	84.18	1.005	0.984	1.025	1.005	0.988	1.021
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	4.3408	3.25	1.012	0.991	1.031	1.011	0.994	1.028
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	12.7348	9.76	1.011	0.990	1.031	1.011	0.994	1.027
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	22.9538	17.38	1.010	0.989	1.030	1.010	0.993	1.027

Table 3.187: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)	Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)	Med. cnterfact GR (2077)
Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	0.07	15.6408	12.85	0.963	0.949	0.999	0.999
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	0.07	50.9348	42.76	0.885	0.841	0.997	0.997
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	88.2500	73.38	0.809	0.741	0.994	0.994
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	20.7408	15.75	0.953	0.934	0.999	0.999
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	57.2348	46.46	0.873	0.825	0.996	0.996
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	106.7000	84.18	0.778	0.701	0.993	0.993
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	4.3408	3.25	0.990	0.986	1.000	1.000
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	12.7348	9.76	0.971	0.959	0.999	0.999
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	22.9538	17.38	0.948	0.928	0.999	0.999

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