3.40 Razorbill - East Caithness Cliffs SPA

Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.153: Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median

Figure 3.154:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.154: Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.155:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.155: The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.156: The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years)

Table 3.198: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates

Projection year	Additional adult mortalities	Median growth rates	2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	Median counterfactual of population size	Median counterfactual of growth rates	Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted
2062	0	1.012	0.991	1.031
2062	25	1.011	0.990	1.030	0.975	0.999	47.5
2062	50	1.010	0.990	1.030	0.951	0.999	45.3
2062	75	1.010	0.989	1.029	0.927	0.998	42.8
2062	100	1.009	0.988	1.028	0.904	0.997	40.3
2062	125	1.008	0.987	1.028	0.881	0.997	37.8
2062	150	1.008	0.987	1.027	0.859	0.996	35.7
2062	175	1.007	0.986	1.026	0.838	0.995	33.6
2062	200	1.006	0.985	1.025	0.817	0.994	31.7
2062	225	1.005	0.985	1.025	0.797	0.994	29.3
2062	250	1.005	0.984	1.024	0.777	0.993	27.2
2062	275	1.004	0.983	1.023	0.757	0.992	25.6
2062	300	1.003	0.983	1.023	0.738	0.992	23.8
2062	325	1.003	0.982	1.022	0.720	0.991	22.4
2062	350	1.002	0.981	1.021	0.702	0.990	20.4
2062	375	1.001	0.980	1.020	0.684	0.990	18.8
2062	400	1.000	0.980	1.020	0.667	0.989	17.4
2062	425	1.000	0.979	1.019	0.650	0.988	15.9
2062	450	0.999	0.978	1.018	0.634	0.987	14.4
2062	475	0.998	0.978	1.018	0.618	0.987	12.9
2062	500	0.998	0.977	1.017	0.602	0.986	11.7
2077	0	1.012	0.994	1.028
2077	25	1.011	0.994	1.028	0.965	0.999	47.1
2077	50	1.010	0.993	1.027	0.931	0.999	44.6
2077	75	1.010	0.992	1.026	0.898	0.998	41.8
2077	100	1.009	0.992	1.025	0.867	0.997	39.1
2077	125	1.008	0.991	1.025	0.836	0.997	36.5
2077	150	1.008	0.990	1.024	0.807	0.996	33.6
2077	175	1.007	0.989	1.023	0.778	0.995	31.0
2077	200	1.006	0.989	1.023	0.751	0.994	28.7
2077	225	1.005	0.988	1.022	0.725	0.994	26.5
2077	250	1.005	0.987	1.021	0.699	0.993	24.2
2077	275	1.004	0.987	1.020	0.674	0.992	22.0
2077	300	1.003	0.986	1.020	0.650	0.992	19.9
2077	325	1.003	0.985	1.019	0.627	0.991	17.7
2077	350	1.002	0.984	1.018	0.605	0.990	15.8
2077	375	1.001	0.984	1.018	0.584	0.990	14.0
2077	400	1.000	0.983	1.017	0.563	0.989	12.2
2077	425	1.000	0.982	1.016	0.543	0.988	10.6
2077	450	0.999	0.982	1.015	0.524	0.987	9.3
2077	475	0.998	0.981	1.015	0.505	0.987	8.2
2077	500	0.998	0.980	1.014	0.487	0.986	7.2

Table 3.199 Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.07	0.00	0.00	65650.3	29085.3	143345.2
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	48.02	32.17	62627.3	27722.8	136825.0
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	113.00	80.21	58616.9	25919.5	128165.6
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	228.38	157.57	52315.5	23087.1	114546.9
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	3.92	2.57	65399.9	28972.4	142806.5
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	5.30	3.51	65310.8	28932.2	142613.6
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	14.78	9.77	64709.1	28660.6	141316.8

Table 3.200 Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2077)	Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%
Baseline	0.07	0.00	0.00	78982.0	30251.1	191307.2
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	48.02	32.17	73891.2	28278.6	179052.4
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	113.00	80.21	67312.2	25731.0	163149.7
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	228.38	157.57	57295.9	21867.0	139059.0
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	3.92	2.57	78558.2	30086.2	190284.5
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	5.30	3.51	78407.6	30027.8	189920.4
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	14.78	9.77	77391.5	29632.8	187467.8

Table 3.201: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Ann. med. GR (2062)	Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI	Ann. med. GR (2077)	Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI
Baseline	0.07	0.00	0.00	1.012	0.991	1.031	1.012	0.994	1.028
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	48.02	32.17	1.010	0.990	1.030	1.010	0.993	1.027
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	113.00	80.21	1.009	0.988	1.028	1.009	0.991	1.025
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	228.38	157.57	1.005	0.985	1.025	1.005	0.988	1.022
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	3.92	2.57	1.012	0.991	1.031	1.012	0.994	1.028
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	5.30	3.51	1.012	0.991	1.031	1.012	0.994	1.028
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	14.78	9.77	1.011	0.991	1.031	1.011	0.994	1.028

Table 3.202: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)	Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)	Med. cnterfact GR (2077)
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	48.02	32.17	0.954	0.935	0.999	0.999
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	113.00	80.21	0.893	0.852	0.997	0.997
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	228.38	157.57	0.797	0.725	0.994	0.994
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	3.92	2.57	0.996	0.995	1.000	1.000
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	5.30	3.51	0.995	0.993	1.000	1.000
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	14.78	9.77	0.986	0.980	1.000	1.000

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