3.21 Kittiwake - Farne Islands SPA

Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.77: Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.78:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.78: Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.79:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.79: The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.80: The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Table 3.102: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates.

Projection year	Additional adult mortalities	Median growth rates	2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	Median counterfactual of population size	Median counterfactual of growth rates	Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted
2062	0	0.987	0.966	1.007
2062	10	0.985	0.964	1.005	0.950	0.999	45.1
2062	20	0.984	0.963	1.004	0.903	0.997	40.0
2062	30	0.982	0.962	1.003	0.858	0.996	36.0
2062	40	0.981	0.960	1.001	0.815	0.994	31.9
2062	50	0.980	0.959	1.000	0.774	0.993	27.8
2062	60	0.978	0.957	0.998	0.735	0.992	24.2
2062	70	0.977	0.956	0.997	0.699	0.990	20.7
2062	80	0.975	0.955	0.996	0.663	0.989	17.6
2062	90	0.974	0.953	0.994	0.630	0.987	14.9
2062	100	0.973	0.952	0.993	0.598	0.986	12.2
2062	110	0.971	0.950	0.991	0.568	0.984	9.6
2062	120	0.970	0.949	0.990	0.539	0.983	7.5
2062	130	0.968	0.948	0.988	0.512	0.982	6.0
2062	140	0.967	0.946	0.987	0.486	0.980	4.7
2062	150	0.966	0.945	0.986	0.461	0.979	3.5
2062	160	0.964	0.943	0.984	0.438	0.977	2.8
2062	170	0.963	0.942	0.983	0.416	0.976	2.2
2062	180	0.961	0.941	0.981	0.395	0.974	1.7
2062	190	0.960	0.939	0.980	0.374	0.973	1.3
2062	200	0.959	0.938	0.979	0.355	0.972	0.8
2077	0	0.987	0.969	1.004
2077	10	0.985	0.968	1.002	0.930	0.999	44.1
2077	20	0.984	0.966	1.001	0.865	0.997	38.4
2077	30	0.982	0.965	0.999	0.805	0.996	33.1
2077	40	0.981	0.964	0.998	0.748	0.994	28.4
2077	50	0.980	0.962	0.997	0.696	0.993	24.0
2077	60	0.978	0.961	0.995	0.647	0.991	19.3
2077	70	0.977	0.959	0.994	0.601	0.990	15.9
2077	80	0.975	0.958	0.992	0.559	0.989	12.5
2077	90	0.974	0.957	0.991	0.519	0.987	9.7
2077	100	0.973	0.955	0.990	0.483	0.986	7.2
2077	110	0.971	0.954	0.988	0.448	0.984	5.5
2077	120	0.970	0.953	0.987	0.417	0.983	4.0
2077	130	0.968	0.951	0.985	0.387	0.982	3.0
2077	140	0.967	0.950	0.984	0.359	0.980	2.1
2077	150	0.966	0.948	0.983	0.334	0.979	1.5
2077	160	0.964	0.947	0.981	0.310	0.977	1.1
2077	170	0.963	0.946	0.980	0.288	0.976	0.7
2077	180	0.961	0.944	0.978	0.267	0.974	0.4
2077	190	0.960	0.943	0.977	0.248	0.973	0.2
2077	200	0.959	0.941	0.975	0.230	0.972	0.1

Table 3.103: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.00	4867.0	2087.5	11242.4
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	33.177	6.60	4346.3	1862.7	10059.2
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	41.128	8.21	4229.3	1811.3	9793.0
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	50.694	10.62	4089.0	1750.2	9473.0
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	23.177	1.50	4526.7	1941.0	10468.1
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	29.328	2.21	4436.6	1901.5	10267.2
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	35.194	2.82	4353.5	1865.0	10078.5

Table 3.104: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2077)	Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.00	3998.3	1494.5	10191.8
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	33.177	6.60	3406.7	1270.0	8707.2
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	41.128	8.21	3277.9	1221.5	8383.5
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	50.694	10.62	3125.0	1163.7	7999.1
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	23.177	1.50	3608.3	1346.0	9215.3
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	29.328	2.21	3508.0	1307.9	8962.9
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	35.194	2.82	3415.3	1272.7	8730.2

Table 3.105: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Ann. med. GR (2062)	Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI	Ann. med. GR (2077)	Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.00	0.987	0.966	1.007	0.987	0.969	1.004
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	33.177	6.60	0.983	0.963	1.004	0.983	0.966	1.001
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	41.128	8.21	0.983	0.962	1.003	0.983	0.965	1.000
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	50.694	10.62	0.982	0.961	1.002	0.982	0.965	0.999
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	23.177	1.50	0.985	0.964	1.005	0.985	0.967	1.002
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	29.328	2.21	0.984	0.963	1.004	0.984	0.967	1.001
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	35.194	2.82	0.984	0.963	1.004	0.983	0.966	1.001

Table 3.106: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)	Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)	Med. cnterfact GR (2077)
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	33.177	6.60	0.893	0.852	0.997	0.997
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	41.128	8.21	0.869	0.820	0.996	0.996
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	50.694	10.62	0.840	0.782	0.995	0.995
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	23.177	1.50	0.930	0.902	0.998	0.998
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	29.328	2.21	0.911	0.877	0.997	0.997
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	35.194	2.82	0.894	0.854	0.997	0.997

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