3.27 Kittiwake - Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.101: Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.102:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.102: Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.103:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.103: The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.104: The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Table 3.133: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates.

Projection year	Additional adult mortalities	Median growth rates	2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	Median counterfactual of population size	Median counterfactual of growth rates	Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted
2062	0	0.989	0.966	1.011
2062	50	0.988	0.966	1.010	0.976	0.999	48.1
2062	100	0.987	0.965	1.010	0.952	0.999	46.2
2062	150	0.987	0.964	1.009	0.928	0.998	44.2
2062	200	0.986	0.964	1.008	0.906	0.997	42.1
2062	250	0.985	0.963	1.008	0.884	0.997	40.2
2062	300	0.985	0.962	1.007	0.862	0.996	38.1
2062	350	0.984	0.961	1.006	0.841	0.995	36.4
2062	400	0.983	0.961	1.006	0.820	0.995	34.5
2062	450	0.983	0.960	1.005	0.800	0.994	32.7
2062	500	0.982	0.959	1.004	0.780	0.993	31.0
2062	550	0.981	0.959	1.004	0.761	0.992	29.4
2062	600	0.981	0.958	1.003	0.742	0.992	27.8
2062	650	0.980	0.957	1.002	0.724	0.991	26.2
2062	700	0.979	0.957	1.002	0.706	0.990	24.4
2062	750	0.979	0.956	1.001	0.689	0.990	23.0
2062	800	0.978	0.955	1.000	0.672	0.989	21.5
2062	850	0.977	0.955	0.999	0.655	0.988	20.2
2062	900	0.977	0.954	0.999	0.639	0.988	18.4
2062	950	0.976	0.953	0.998	0.623	0.987	17.1
2062	1000	0.975	0.953	0.997	0.608	0.986	15.7
2077	0	0.989	0.969	1.008
2077	50	0.988	0.968	1.007	0.966	0.999	47.0
2077	100	0.987	0.968	1.006	0.932	0.999	44.5
2077	150	0.987	0.967	1.006	0.900	0.998	42.0
2077	200	0.986	0.966	1.005	0.869	0.997	39.7
2077	250	0.985	0.966	1.004	0.839	0.997	37.6
2077	300	0.985	0.965	1.004	0.810	0.996	35.1
2077	350	0.984	0.964	1.003	0.782	0.995	32.9
2077	400	0.983	0.964	1.002	0.755	0.994	30.5
2077	450	0.982	0.963	1.001	0.729	0.994	27.9
2077	500	0.982	0.962	1.001	0.703	0.993	25.8
2077	550	0.981	0.961	1.000	0.679	0.992	23.8
2077	600	0.980	0.961	0.999	0.655	0.992	22.0
2077	650	0.980	0.960	0.999	0.633	0.991	20.2
2077	700	0.979	0.959	0.998	0.611	0.990	18.3
2077	750	0.978	0.959	0.997	0.589	0.990	16.3
2077	800	0.978	0.958	0.997	0.569	0.989	14.9
2077	850	0.977	0.957	0.996	0.549	0.988	13.5
2077	900	0.976	0.957	0.995	0.530	0.988	12.3
2077	950	0.976	0.956	0.995	0.511	0.987	11.2
2077	1000	0.975	0.955	0.994	0.493	0.986	10.3

Table 3.134: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.000	55022.1	20971.5	134597.9
North Sea As-built: develper approach	0.1	410.674	61.136	48232.6	18361.6	118530.5
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	441.907	76.920	47653.8	18137.2	117123.4
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	491.300	101.500	46756.2	17789.4	114940.9
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	445.574	70.336	47665.1	18140.7	117160.0
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	476.807	86.020	47094.2	17920.1	115771.8
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	526.171	110.580	46207.2	17575.9	113614.7
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	17.047	8.236	54665.1	20833.0	133735.4
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	28.507	14.120	54422.0	20738.8	133151.0
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	38.171	18.880	54219.5	20661.3	132663.6

Table 3.135: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2077)	Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.000	45555.5	14846.9	128811.5
North Sea As-built: develper approach	0.1	410.674	61.136	37900.1	12276.7	107534.6
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	441.907	76.920	37255.1	12063.1	105727.8
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	491.300	101.500	36260.5	11734.2	102944.1
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	445.574	70.336	37266.2	12066.4	105766.6
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	476.807	86.020	36632.6	11856.6	103992.8
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	526.171	110.580	35655.5	11535.3	101254.5
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	17.047	8.236	45137.4	14707.4	127652.7
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	28.507	14.120	44853.5	14612.5	126865.3
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	38.171	18.880	44618.4	14534.2	126214.3

Table 3.136: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Ann. med. GR (2062)	Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI	Ann. med. GR (2077)	Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.000	0.989	0.966	1.011	0.989	0.969	1.008
North Sea As-built: develper approach	0.1	410.674	61.136	0.985	0.963	1.007	0.985	0.965	1.004
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	441.907	76.920	0.985	0.962	1.007	0.985	0.965	1.004
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	491.300	101.500	0.984	0.962	1.007	0.984	0.965	1.003
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	445.574	70.336	0.985	0.962	1.007	0.985	0.965	1.004
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	476.807	86.020	0.985	0.962	1.007	0.984	0.965	1.003
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	526.171	110.580	0.984	0.962	1.006	0.984	0.964	1.003
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	17.047	8.236	0.989	0.966	1.011	0.988	0.969	1.007
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	28.507	14.120	0.989	0.966	1.011	0.988	0.969	1.007
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	38.171	18.880	0.988	0.966	1.011	0.988	0.969	1.007

Table 3.137: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)	Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)	Med. cnterfact GR (2077)
North Sea As-built: develper approach	0.1	410.674	61.136	0.878	0.832	0.996	0.996
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	441.907	76.920	0.867	0.818	0.996	0.996
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	491.300	101.500	0.851	0.796	0.996	0.996
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	445.574	70.336	0.868	0.818	0.996	0.996
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	476.807	86.020	0.857	0.804	0.996	0.996
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	526.171	110.580	0.841	0.783	0.995	0.995
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	17.047	8.236	0.994	0.991	1.000	1.000
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	28.507	14.120	0.989	0.985	1.000	1.000
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	38.171	18.880	0.985	0.979	1.000	1.000

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