3.34 Puffin - North Caithness Cliffs SPA

Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.129: Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median

Figure 3.130:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.130: Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.131:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.131: The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.132: The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years)

Table 3.168: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates

Projection year	Additional adult mortalities	Median growth rates	2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	Median counterfactual of population size	Median counterfactual of growth rates	Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted
2062	0	1.001	0.965	1.030
2062	10	0.997	0.961	1.026	0.874	0.996	42.3
2062	20	0.993	0.957	1.022	0.764	0.993	34.7
2062	30	0.989	0.954	1.018	0.667	0.989	28.4
2062	40	0.986	0.950	1.015	0.582	0.985	21.9
2062	50	0.982	0.946	1.011	0.508	0.981	17.0
2062	60	0.978	0.942	1.007	0.443	0.978	12.4
2062	70	0.974	0.939	1.003	0.386	0.974	8.8
2062	80	0.971	0.935	1.000	0.336	0.970	6.0
2062	90	0.967	0.931	0.996	0.292	0.966	3.9
2062	100	0.963	0.927	0.992	0.254	0.963	2.4
2062	110	0.959	0.924	0.988	0.221	0.959	1.7
2062	120	0.956	0.920	0.985	0.192	0.955	1.1
2062	130	0.952	0.916	0.981	0.167	0.951	0.5
2062	140	0.948	0.913	0.977	0.145	0.948	0.3
2062	150	0.944	0.909	0.973	0.126	0.944	0.2
2062	160	0.941	0.905	0.970	0.109	0.940	0.2
2062	170	0.937	0.901	0.966	0.094	0.937	0.1
2062	180	0.933	0.897	0.962	0.082	0.933	0.1
2062	190	0.930	0.894	0.959	0.071	0.929	0.0
2062	200	0.926	0.890	0.955	0.061	0.925	0.0
2077	0	1.000	0.971	1.024
2077	10	0.996	0.967	1.021	0.826	0.996	39.7
2077	20	0.993	0.963	1.017	0.682	0.993	30.8
2077	30	0.989	0.960	1.013	0.563	0.989	23.5
2077	40	0.985	0.956	1.010	0.464	0.985	16.7
2077	50	0.981	0.952	1.006	0.383	0.981	11.4
2077	60	0.978	0.948	1.002	0.315	0.978	7.2
2077	70	0.974	0.945	0.998	0.259	0.974	4.5
2077	80	0.970	0.941	0.995	0.213	0.970	2.8
2077	90	0.967	0.937	0.991	0.175	0.966	1.5
2077	100	0.963	0.934	0.987	0.144	0.963	0.8
2077	110	0.959	0.930	0.983	0.118	0.959	0.5
2077	120	0.955	0.926	0.980	0.096	0.955	0.2
2077	130	0.952	0.922	0.976	0.079	0.951	0.1
2077	140	0.948	0.918	0.972	0.065	0.948	0.1
2077	150	0.944	0.914	0.968	0.053	0.944	0.0
2077	160	0.940	0.911	0.965	0.043	0.940	0.0
2077	170	0.937	0.907	0.961	0.035	0.936	0.0
2077	180	0.933	0.903	0.957	0.029	0.933	0.0
2077	190	0.929	0.899	0.953	0.023	0.929	0.0
2077	200	0.925	0.895	0.950	0.019	0.925	0.0

Table 3.169: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	3046.6	779.3	9437.3
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	8.2279	8.51	2689.7	684.8	8365.7
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	29.4800	30.67	1941.5	488.1	6123.1
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	49.1500	51.12	1435.5	356.1	4596.6

Table 3.170: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2077)	Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	2990.6	614.2	11127.0
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	8.2279	8.51	2504.9	511.3	9377.2
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	29.4800	30.67	1581.6	317.5	5997.6
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	49.1500	51.12	1029.0	202.3	3942.7

Table 3.171: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Ann. med. GR (2062)	Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI	Ann. med. GR (2077)	Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	1.001	0.965	1.030	1.000	0.971	1.024
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	8.2279	8.51	0.997	0.961	1.026	0.997	0.967	1.021
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	29.4800	30.67	0.988	0.952	1.017	0.988	0.958	1.012
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	49.1500	51.12	0.980	0.944	1.009	0.979	0.950	1.004

Table 3.172 Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)	Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)	Med. cnterfact GR (2077)
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	8.2279	8.51	0.883	0.838	0.997	0.997
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	29.4800	30.67	0.638	0.528	0.988	0.988
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	49.1500	51.12	0.471	0.344	0.979	0.979

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