3.9 Guillemot - St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.29: Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.30:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.30: Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.31:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.31: The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.32: The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Table 3.42: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates

Projection year	Additional adult mortalities	Median growth rates	2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	Median counterfactual of population size	Median counterfactual of growth rates	Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted
2062	0	1.025	1.011	1.038
2062	100	1.023	1.009	1.036	0.936	0.998	40.3
2062	200	1.021	1.007	1.034	0.876	0.996	31.6
2062	300	1.019	1.005	1.032	0.819	0.994	23.3
2062	400	1.017	1.003	1.030	0.766	0.993	17.1
2062	500	1.016	1.001	1.028	0.717	0.991	11.7
2062	600	1.014	0.999	1.026	0.670	0.989	7.5
2062	700	1.012	0.997	1.024	0.627	0.987	4.6
2062	800	1.010	0.995	1.022	0.586	0.985	2.9
2062	900	1.008	0.994	1.021	0.548	0.983	1.7
2062	1000	1.006	0.992	1.019	0.512	0.982	0.9
2062	1100	1.004	0.990	1.017	0.478	0.980	0.5
2062	1200	1.002	0.988	1.015	0.447	0.978	0.2
2062	1300	1.000	0.986	1.013	0.418	0.976	0.1
2062	1400	0.999	0.984	1.011	0.390	0.974	0.1
2062	1500	0.997	0.982	1.009	0.365	0.972	0.0
2077	0	1.025	1.013	1.035
2077	100	1.023	1.011	1.034	0.910	0.998	38.1
2077	200	1.021	1.009	1.032	0.828	0.996	26.8
2077	300	1.019	1.007	1.030	0.753	0.994	18.2
2077	400	1.017	1.006	1.028	0.685	0.993	11.3
2077	500	1.015	1.004	1.026	0.623	0.991	6.7
2077	600	1.013	1.002	1.024	0.567	0.989	4.0
2077	700	1.012	1.000	1.022	0.515	0.987	1.7
2077	800	1.010	0.998	1.020	0.468	0.985	0.8
2077	900	1.008	0.996	1.018	0.426	0.983	0.3
2077	1000	1.006	0.994	1.016	0.387	0.982	0.2
2077	1100	1.004	0.992	1.015	0.351	0.980	0.0
2077	1200	1.002	0.991	1.013	0.319	0.978	0.0
2077	1300	1.000	0.989	1.011	0.290	0.976	0.0
2077	1400	0.998	0.987	1.009	0.263	0.974	0.0
2077	1500	0.996	0.985	1.007	0.239	0.972	0.0

Table 3.43: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	180897.1	103493.6	296677.0
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	131.0054	132.85	165372.8	94592.5	271362.8
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	371.0500	370.16	140443.1	80216.1	230758.1
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	695.7739	688.70	112590.2	64146.2	185317.5
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	110.84	109.62	168034.6	96119.3	275713.9
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	310.9482	311.66	146287.1	83586.9	240250.9
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	576.12	573.96	121917.5	69502.7	200518.7

Table 3.44: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2077)	Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	260375.8	138288.4	454623.2
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	131.0054	132.85	229270.0	121563.7	400768.7
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	371.0500	370.16	181783.1	96210.7	318406.5
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	695.7739	688.70	132797.6	70034.1	233281.7
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	110.84	109.62	234510.0	124387.0	409849.8
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	310.9482	311.66	192622.0	101962.6	337173.7
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	576.12	573.96	148660.0	78479.9	261008.7

Table 3.45: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Ann. med. GR (2062)	Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI	Ann. med. GR (2077)	Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	1.025	1.011	1.038	1.025	1.013	1.035
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	131.0054	132.85	1.022	1.008	1.035	1.022	1.011	1.033
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	371.0500	370.16	1.018	1.003	1.030	1.018	1.006	1.028
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	695.7739	688.70	1.012	0.997	1.024	1.011	1.000	1.022
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	110.84	109.62	1.023	1.009	1.035	1.023	1.011	1.033
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	310.9482	311.66	1.019	1.005	1.031	1.019	1.007	1.029
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	576.12	573.96	1.014	0.999	1.026	1.014	1.002	1.024

Table 3.46: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)	Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)	Med. cnterfact GR (2077)
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	131.0054	132.85	0.914	0.880	0.998	0.998
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	371.0500	370.16	0.776	0.698	0.993	0.993
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	695.7739	688.70	0.622	0.510	0.987	0.987
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	110.84	109.62	0.929	0.901	0.998	0.998
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	310.9482	311.66	0.809	0.740	0.994	0.994
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	576.12	573.96	0.674	0.571	0.989	0.989

Previous part

Next part

Tables ▼