3.23 Kittiwake - Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA

Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.85: Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.86:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.86: Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.87:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.87: The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.88: The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Table 3.112: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates.

Projection year	Additional adult mortalities	Median growth rates	2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	Median counterfactual of population size	Median counterfactual of growth rates	Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted
2062	0	1.014	0.996	1.031
2062	10	1.013	0.995	1.030	0.979	0.999	47.9
2062	20	1.012	0.994	1.030	0.958	0.999	46.0
2062	30	1.012	0.994	1.029	0.938	0.998	43.6
2062	40	1.011	0.993	1.029	0.918	0.998	41.3
2062	50	1.011	0.993	1.028	0.899	0.997	39.1
2062	60	1.010	0.992	1.027	0.880	0.996	36.6
2062	70	1.009	0.991	1.027	0.861	0.996	34.5
2062	80	1.009	0.991	1.026	0.843	0.995	32.3
2062	90	1.008	0.990	1.026	0.825	0.995	30.5
2062	100	1.008	0.990	1.025	0.808	0.994	28.4
2062	110	1.007	0.989	1.024	0.791	0.993	26.2
2062	120	1.006	0.988	1.024	0.774	0.993	24.4
2062	130	1.006	0.988	1.023	0.757	0.992	23.0
2062	140	1.005	0.987	1.023	0.741	0.992	21.4
2062	150	1.005	0.987	1.022	0.726	0.991	19.5
2062	160	1.004	0.986	1.021	0.710	0.991	17.7
2062	170	1.003	0.985	1.021	0.695	0.990	16.4
2062	180	1.003	0.985	1.020	0.680	0.989	15.1
2062	190	1.002	0.984	1.020	0.666	0.989	14.0
2062	200	1.002	0.984	1.019	0.652	0.988	12.7
2077	0	1.013	0.998	1.028
2077	10	1.013	0.997	1.028	0.970	0.999	46.9
2077	20	1.012	0.997	1.027	0.941	0.999	44.2
2077	30	1.012	0.996	1.026	0.913	0.998	41.2
2077	40	1.011	0.996	1.026	0.886	0.998	38.3
2077	50	1.010	0.995	1.025	0.860	0.997	35.7
2077	60	1.010	0.994	1.025	0.834	0.996	33.2
2077	70	1.009	0.994	1.024	0.809	0.996	30.4
2077	80	1.009	0.993	1.023	0.785	0.995	27.7
2077	90	1.008	0.993	1.023	0.762	0.995	25.2
2077	100	1.007	0.992	1.022	0.739	0.994	22.8
2077	110	1.007	0.991	1.022	0.717	0.993	20.9
2077	120	1.006	0.991	1.021	0.695	0.993	18.9
2077	130	1.006	0.990	1.020	0.674	0.992	17.0
2077	140	1.005	0.990	1.020	0.654	0.992	15.1
2077	150	1.004	0.989	1.019	0.634	0.991	13.5
2077	160	1.004	0.988	1.019	0.615	0.991	12.0
2077	170	1.003	0.988	1.018	0.597	0.990	10.9
2077	180	1.003	0.987	1.017	0.579	0.989	9.9
2077	190	1.002	0.987	1.017	0.562	0.989	8.6
2077	200	1.001	0.986	1.016	0.545	0.988	7.6

Table 3.113: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.00	39031.9	18948.7	77564.5
North Sea As-built: developer approach	0.1	60.059	23.44	35748.1	17331.6	71080.1
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	69.768	29.39	35184.1	17055.1	69972.2
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	96.818	39.79	33826.3	16384.8	67276.6
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	65.659	26.44	35433.7	17177.1	70460.9
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	75.468	32.39	34871.4	16902.5	69353.8
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	102.518	42.79	33525.4	16236.7	66683.5
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	9.01	3.34	38542.4	18706.7	76597.5
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	14.068	5.69	38231.7	18555.0	75985.1
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	18.418	7.59	37983.4	18431.4	75495.6

Table 3.114: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2077)	Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.00	46996.9	19922.1	104504.2
North Sea As-built: develper approach	0.1	60.059	23.44	41516.2	17575.9	92414.4
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	69.768	29.39	40593.7	17181.7	90384.0
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	96.818	39.79	38390.7	16240.6	85524.3
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	65.659	26.44	41001.4	17356.8	91281.0
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	75.468	32.39	40084.2	16964.4	89260.0
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	102.518	42.79	37906.8	16035.2	84455.9
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	9.01	3.34	46166.2	19566.9	102670.2
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	14.068	5.69	45641.3	19341.9	101517.7
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	18.418	7.59	45223.5	19164.0	100595.0

Table 3.115: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Ann. med. GR (2062)	Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI	Ann. med. GR (2077)	Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.00	1.014	0.996	1.031	1.013	0.998	1.028
North Sea As-built: develper approach	0.1	60.059	23.44	1.011	0.993	1.029	1.011	0.996	1.026
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	69.768	29.39	1.011	0.993	1.028	1.010	0.995	1.025
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	96.818	39.79	1.010	0.992	1.027	1.009	0.994	1.024
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	65.659	26.44	1.011	0.993	1.028	1.011	0.995	1.025
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	75.468	32.39	1.010	0.992	1.028	1.010	0.995	1.025
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	102.518	42.79	1.009	0.991	1.027	1.009	0.994	1.024
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	9.01	3.34	1.013	0.995	1.031	1.013	0.998	1.028
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	14.068	5.69	1.013	0.995	1.030	1.013	0.997	1.028
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	18.418	7.59	1.013	0.995	1.030	1.013	0.997	1.027

Table 3.116: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)	Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)	Med. cnterfact GR (2077)
North Sea As-built: developer approach	0.1	60.059	23.44	0.916	0.883	0.998	0.998
North Sea As built Approach a	0.1	69.768	29.39	0.902	0.864	0.997	0.997
North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	0.1	96.818	39.79	0.867	0.817	0.996	0.996
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	65.659	26.44	0.908	0.873	0.997	0.997
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	75.468	32.39	0.894	0.853	0.997	0.997
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	102.518	42.79	0.859	0.807	0.996	0.996
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	9.01	3.34	0.987	0.982	1.000	1.000
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	14.068	5.69	0.980	0.971	0.999	0.999
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	18.418	7.59	0.973	0.962	0.999	0.999

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