2.8 Impact Scenarios: Incremental Additional Deaths

Table 2.21: Range of impact scenarios, and respective incremental steps, evaluated under each population model, expressed in terms of additional adult deaths in the starting year. ‘0’ additional deaths denote the baseline/unimpacted population case. The upper figure of the range of increments was selected to be markedly larger than the expected mortalities under the impact scenarios

Species		Range of additional adult deaths	Additional deaths increments
Gannet	Forth Islands	0 - 2250	250
	Flamborough and Filey Coast	0 - 1000	50
	North Rona and Sula Sgeir	0 - 20	5
	Fair Isle	0 - 50	5
	Noss	0 – 105	5
	Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field	0 – 150	10
Guillemot	Forth Islands	0 - 700	50
	Farne Islands	0 - 400	25
	St Abb's Head to Fast Castle	0 - 1500	100
	Fowlsheugh	0 - 1500	100
	Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast	0 - 200	10
	Troup, Pennan and Lion's Heads	0 - 200	10
Herring gull	Forth Islands	0 - 80	10
	Farne Islands	0 - 5	1
	St Abb's Head to Fast Castle	0 - 5	1
	Fowlsheugh	0 - 10	5
Kittiwake	Forth Islands	0 - 400	25
	Farne Islands	0 - 200	10
	Flamborough and Filey Coast	0 - 1000	50
	Coquet Island	0 - 10	5
	St Abb's Head to Fast Castle	0 - 800	50
	Fowlsheugh	0 – 500	25
	Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast	0 – 400	25
	Troup, Pennan and Lion's Heads	0 – 200	10
	East Caithness Cliffs	0 – 800	50
	North Caithness Cliffs	0 – 200	10
	West Westray	0 – 300	25
Lesser black-backed gull	Forth Islands	0 – 10	2
	Farne Islands	0 – 10	2
	Coquet Island	0 – 5	1
Puffin	Forth Islands	0 – 600	50
	Farne Islands	0 – 200	10
	North Caithness Cliffs	0 – 200	10
Razorbill	Forth Islands	0 – 400	25
	Farne Islands	0 – 10	5
	Flamborough and Filey Coast	0 – 600	50
	St Abb's Head to Fast Castle	0 - 90	10
	Fowlsheugh	0 - 200	10
	Troup, Pennan and Lion's Heads	0 - 60	5
	East Caithness Cliffs	0 - 500	25

3 PVA Outputs (Population Metrics)

Outputs from PVAs can be voluminous and may be summarised in many ways. The key outputs from the PVA models are the counterfactuals of population growth rate and of population size (Searle et al., 2019). These are the ratios of the impacted to unimpacted (baseline) scenarios and allow meaningful interpretation of the predicted effects against the populations in question (Cook and Robinson, 2016). Developing guidance from the SNCBs including NS, and from MSS and RSPB Scotland, indicates that these are the metrics that will be used in making judgements on the viability of protected seabird populations.
Testing the sensitivities of these metrics has suggested that counterfactual of growth rate is useful to illustrate impacts regardless of population status or trend (Cook and Robinson, 2016). Cook and Robinson (2016) also found the counterfactual of population size can be used to assess the population level effects of impacts for stable or increasing populations and may also offer a useful context for the counterfactual of growth rate. The ratio metrics have also been shown to be less sensitive to misspecification of input parameters compared to probabilistic metrics (Jitlal et al. 2017).
The full list of outputs for the simulations run for the 40 species-SPA combinations previously listed are:

Plots of the adult population size projections through time, 0 - 50 years. A range of impact scenarios are presented in terms of varying additional adult mortalities, ranging from 0 (unimpacted) to a species/population-specific upper limit.
Plots comparing the 50th percentile points of the simulated impacted and unimpacted populations sizes through time.
Plots comparing the growth rates of simulated impacted and unimpacted populations, for a range of impact sizes.
Plots comparing the median of the impacted population size to centiles of the unimpacted, over a range of impact scenarios at the 35- and 50-year post-construction points.
A table of growth rates under varying impact scenarios, with several reference points expressed: the 2.5%, 50% & 97.5% points of the distribution of simulated rates. These are expressed for reference years at 35 and 50 years.
A table of metrics for specific mortality scenarios, potentially with differential adult and immature impacts, including adjustments for sabbaticals.

The key outputs were discussed through the Ornithology Roadmap Process (meeting 4 – Technical Appendix 11.8 and follow up email with advice from NatureScot 26th January 2022).

3.1 Summaries of Specific Mortality Scenarios

The following tables 20 & 21 present summaries of the specific mortality scenarios for each of the 40 specified species/SPA combinations. Results are distilled to the years 2062 (35-year development lifespan) and 2077 (50-year development lifespan).

Table 3.1: 2062 projection – summary of specific mortality scenarios. Suffixes of 2.5% and 97.5% give the central 95% of projected/simulated population sizes

Species	SPA	Scenario	Estimated adult mortality	Estimated immature mortality	Unimpacted median population size	Unimpacted median population size (2.5%)	Unimpacted median population size (97.5%)	Impacted median population size	Impacted median population size (2.5%)	Impacted median population size (97.5%)
Gannet	Forth Islands SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	583.34	17.75	1057020	592306	1771243	952367	533712	1596707
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	610.70	18.93	1057020	592306	1771243	947664	531089	1588915
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	822.44	28.12	1057020	592306	1771243	912148	511212	1529872
		North Sea Consented developer approach	800.34	167.85	1057020	592306	1771243	900857	504410	1511404
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	827.70	174.03	1057020	592306	1771243	895868	501617	1503157
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	1112.84	239.72	1057020	592306	1771243	845416	473322	1419587
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	154.14	5.55	1057020	592306	1771243	1028218	576163	1723310
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	183.04	6.73	1057020	592306	1771243	1023133	573331	1714865
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	245.17	10.82	1057020	592306	1771243	1011584	566890	1695683
Gannet	Flamborough and Filey Coast	North Sea As-built: developer approach	301.88	35.78	243127	141247	386266	178439	103642	284277
		North Sea As built Approach a	302.03	35.90	243127	141247	386266	178400	103619	284215
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	438.26	48.92	243127	141247	386266	155369	90306	247696
		North Sea Consented developer approach	351.48	36.38	243127	141247	386266	170211	98863	271189
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	351.99	36.51	243127	141247	386266	170114	98806	271039
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	487.86	49.52	243127	141247	386266	148144	86099	236140
Gannet	North Rona and Sula Sgeir	North Sea Consented developer approach	4.25	3.10	138982	76351	233225	137942	75772	231512
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	4.33	3.10	138982	76351	233225	137929	75765	231488
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	6.08	4.41	138982	76351	233225	137500	75526	230782
Gannet	Fair Isle	North Sea Consented developer approach	10.57	8.42	52106	30201	81721	49925	28918	78309
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	10.66	8.42	52106	30201	81721	49912	28910	78291
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	14.42	11.55	52106	30201	81721	49144	28460	77092
Gannet	Noss	North Sea Consented developer approach	35.08	28.51	166390	96170	268809	158088	91277	255457
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	35.37	27.72	166390	96170	268809	158122	91300	255514
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	48.68	37.93	166390	96170	268809	155137	89544	250711
Gannet	Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field	North Sea Consented developer approach	75.30	60.07	304501	169278	510148	286724	159231	480445
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	76.81	60.11	304501	169278	510148	286492	159103	480063
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	104.20	82.26	304501	169278	510148	280252	155580	469640
Guillemot	Forth Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	82.82	80.12	94669	56296	155126	85776	50937	140669
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	200.88	200.60	94669	56296	155126	74243	44006	121879
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	398.91	392.06	94669	56296	155126	58559	34573	96177
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	37.42	36.62	94669	56296	155126	90522	53799	148393
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	91.58	91.20	94669	56296	155126	84774	50333	139040
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	180.51	178.26	94669	56296	155126	76174	45167	125045
Guillemot	St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	131.01	132.85	180897	103494	296677	165373	94593	271363
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	371.05	370.16	180897	103494	296677	140443	80216	230758
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	695.77	688.70	180897	103494	296677	112590	64146	185318
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	110.84	109.62	180897	103494	296677	168035	96119	275714
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	310.95	311.66	180897	103494	296677	146287	83587	240251
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	576.12	573.96	180897	103494	296677	121918	69503	200519
Guillemot	Fowlsheugh SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	154.10	149.42	269127	153973	441376	251032	143584	411908
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	430.29	423.20	269127	153973	441376	221233	126429	363302
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	800.04	781.75	269127	153973	441376	187032	106644	307532
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	89.20	88.52	269127	153973	441376	258400	147820	423922
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	259.90	261.04	269127	153973	441376	238851	136609	391967
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	473.32	472.88	269127	153973	441376	216549	123726	355661
Guillemot	Farne Islands SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	36.92	40.21	372689	220897	595801	366107	216909	585471
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	79.84	88.67	372689	220897	595801	358473	212289	573519
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	167.20	183.90	372689	220897	595801	343474	203213	549959
Guillemot	Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	6.03	6.16	113267	65202	184901	112540	64784	183731
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	12.57	13.30	113267	65202	184901	111733	64323	182431
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	27.10	28.09	113267	65202	184901	110012	63336	179665
		North Sea Consented developer approach	8.53	8.06	113267	65202	184901	112272	64630	183302
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	18.77	17.91	113267	65202	184901	111079	63945	181383
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	39.30	37.09	113267	65202	184901	108753	62607	177640
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	4.93	4.76	113267	65202	184901	112686	64867	183966
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	9.57	9.40	113267	65202	184901	112133	64551	183077
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	21.40	20.79	113267	65202	184901	110758	63761	180864
Guillemot	Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads	North Sea Consented developer approach	10.36	8.33	124264	81479	185271	122695	80441	182950
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	22.34	17.61	124264	81479	185271	120932	79274	180339
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	47.55	37.57	124264	81479	185271	117274	76851	174917
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	2.47	2.19	124264	81479	185271	123648	81071	184359
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	5.19	4.70	124264	81479	185271	123153	80743	183625
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	11.10	9.97	124264	81479	185271	121665	79757	181415
Herring gull	Forth Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	15.17	4.04	116788	66486	200969	113124	64376	194811
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach	22.10	5.30	116788	66486	200969	111573	63478	192206
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	10.17	1.74	116788	66486	200969	114459	65143	197071
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	17.10	3.00	116788	66486	200969	112888	64237	194434
Herring gull	Fowlsheugh SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	1.11	0.50	16451	9143	28431	16097	8942	27826
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach	1.52	0.58	16451	9143	28431	15987	8879	27635
		North Sea Consented developer approach	2.91	0.50	16451	9143	28431	15676	8698	27106
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach	3.32	0.58	16451	9143	28431	15568	8635	26926
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.61	0.10	16451	9143	28431	16285	9048	28150
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	1.02	0.18	16451	9143	28431	16174	8984	27957
Herring gull	St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	0.74	0.27	6349	3564	10753	6148	3450	10417
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach	1.06	0.33	6349	3564	10753	6075	3408	10294
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.44	0.07	6349	3564	10753	6243	3503	10573
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	0.76	0.13	6349	3564	10753	6166	3461	10452
Herring gull	Farne Islands SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.52	0.09	16280	9331	28159	16147	9255	27934
Herring gull	Farne Islands SPA	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	0.87	0.15	16280	9331	28159	16057	9204	27787
Kittiwake	Forth Islands SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	56.22	4.23	2423	897	5771	2018	742	4831
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	58.21	4.52	2423	897	5771	2004	737	4800
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	77.22	6.44	2423	897	5771	1881	690	4513
		North Sea Consented developer approach	64.82	8.33	2423	897	5771	1948	716	4667
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	68.21	9.42	2423	897	5771	1923	706	4610
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	89.92	12.54	2423	897	5771	1785	654	4289
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	28.82	1.63	2423	897	5771	2208	814	5266
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	36.21	2.32	2423	897	5771	2156	794	5145
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	43.32	2.94	2423	897	5771	2106	775	5033
Kittiwake	Fowlsheugh SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	141.70	10.80	13615	5563	31969	11720	4769	27630
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	155.35	12.51	13615	5563	31969	11548	4697	27229
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	197.25	16.94	13615	5563	31969	11047	4485	26048
		North Sea Consented developer approach	183.60	24.10	13615	5563	31969	11139	4527	26268
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	200.35	27.91	13615	5563	31969	10928	4438	25769
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	252.35	36.24	13615	5563	31969	10313	4185	24338
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	87.03	4.90	13615	5563	31969	12436	5068	29284
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	109.05	7.01	13615	5563	31969	12143	4946	28608
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	130.45	8.84	13615	5563	31969	11869	4831	27977
Kittiwake	St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	266.61	10.50	2695	1029	6567	1333	496	3312
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	323.33	12.94	2695	1029	6567	1147	424	2866
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	388.73	16.15	2695	1029	6567	964	354	2422
		North Sea Consented developer approach	275.71	15.00	2695	1029	6567	1291	480	3210
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	333.83	18.24	2695	1029	6567	1105	408	2763
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	402.23	22.95	2695	1029	6567	919	338	2312
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	253.21	9.40	2695	1029	6567	1382	515	3432
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	312.63	11.94	2695	1029	6567	1181	437	2947
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	371.33	14.35	2695	1029	6567	1011	372	2538
Kittiwake	Farne Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	33.18	6.60	4867	2088	11242	4346	1863	10059
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	41.13	8.21	4867	2088	11242	4229	1811	9793
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	50.69	10.62	4867	2088	11242	4089	1750	9473
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	23.18	1.50	4867	2088	11242	4527	1941	10468
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	29.33	2.21	4867	2088	11242	4437	1902	10267
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	35.19	2.82	4867	2088	11242	4354	1865	10079
Kittiwake	Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	14.16	4.65	4374	1680	11054	4279	1643	10820
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	20.77	7.24	4374	1680	11054	4235	1625	10708
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	27.51	10.18	4374	1680	11054	4189	1607	10593
		North Sea As-built: developer approach	63.36	19.25	4374	1680	11054	3972	1521	10055
		North Sea As built Approach a	75.37	24.54	4374	1680	11054	3895	1491	9862
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	93.11	32.78	4374	1680	11054	3782	1448	9581
		North Sea Consented developer approach	68.16	21.75	4374	1680	11054	3940	1509	9974
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	80.17	27.04	4374	1680	11054	3863	1479	9783
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	97.91	35.28	4374	1680	11054	3751	1436	9504
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	11.06	2.95	4374	1680	11054	4302	1652	10877
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	16.47	4.94	4374	1680	11054	4266	1637	10786
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	21.01	6.58	4374	1680	11054	4236	1625	10711
Kittiwake	Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads	North Sea As-built: developer approach	60.06	23.44	39032	18949	77565	35748	17332	71080
		North Sea As built Approach a	69.77	29.39	39032	18949	77565	35184	17055	69972
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	96.82	39.79	39032	18949	77565	33826	16385	67277
		North Sea Consented developer approach	65.66	26.44	39032	18949	77565	35434	17177	70461
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	75.47	32.39	39032	18949	77565	34871	16903	69354
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	102.52	42.79	39032	18949	77565	33525	16237	66684
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	9.01	3.34	39032	18949	77565	38542	18707	76598
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	14.07	5.69	39032	18949	77565	38232	18555	75985
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	18.42	7.59	39032	18949	77565	37983	18431	75496
Kittiwake	East Caithness cliffs	North Sea As-built: develper approach	276.52	74.45	73730	26112	193756	62464	22102	164899
		North Sea As built Approach a	277.61	88.37	73730	26112	193756	62125	21978	163990
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	395.62	120.80	73730	26112	193756	57868	20486	153026
		North Sea Consented developer approach	291.92	82.55	73730	26112	193756	61805	21869	163209
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	293.11	96.47	73730	26112	193756	61467	21745	162305
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	411.12	128.90	73730	26112	193756	57257	20269	151428
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	18.39	8.85	73730	26112	193756	72825	25786	191428
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	30.71	15.17	73730	26112	193756	72214	25567	189858
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	41.12	20.30	73730	26112	193756	71707	25386	188554
Kittiwake	North Caithness Cliffs SPA	North Sea As-built: developer approach	35.94	15.62	5333	1765	15194	4559	1504	13017
		North Sea As built Approach a	43.42	19.81	5333	1765	15194	4402	1452	12582
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	58.71	26.59	5333	1765	15194	4113	1356	11786
		North Sea Consented developer approach	39.84	17.62	5333	1765	15194	4478	1477	12794
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	47.22	21.81	5333	1765	15194	4326	1426	12372
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	62.51	28.59	5333	1765	15194	4041	1331	11588
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	4.54	2.22	5333	1765	15194	5226	1729	14891
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	7.62	3.81	5333	1765	15194	5153	1704	14687
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	10.21	5.09	5333	1765	15194	5094	1685	14519
Kittiwake	Coquet island	North Sea Consented developer approach	1.70	0.70	1995	960	3977	1885	906	3761
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	2.09	0.80	1995	960	3977	1863	895	3718
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	2.74	1.10	1995	960	3977	1822	875	3634
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.30	0.00	1995	960	3977	1979	952	3947
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.49	0.00	1995	960	3977	1969	947	3928
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.64	0.00	1995	960	3977	1962	943	3911
Kittiwake	Flamborough and Filey Coast	North Sea As-built: develper approach	410.67	61.14	55022	20972	134598	48233	18362	118531
		North Sea As built Approach a	441.91	76.92	55022	20972	134598	47654	18137	117123
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	491.30	101.50	55022	20972	134598	46756	17789	114941
		North Sea Consented developer approach	445.57	70.34	55022	20972	134598	47665	18141	117160
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	476.81	86.02	55022	20972	134598	47094	17920	115772
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	526.17	110.58	55022	20972	134598	46207	17576	113615
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	17.05	8.24	55022	20972	134598	54665	20833	133735
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	28.51	14.12	55022	20972	134598	54422	20739	133151
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	38.17	18.88	55022	20972	134598	54220	20661	132664
Kittiwake	West Westray	North Sea As-built: developer approach	35.60	17.94	47	6	295	36	4	227
		North Sea As built Approach a	45.84	22.92	47	6	295	33	4	211
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	61.72	30.85	47	6	295	29	4	187
		North Sea Consented developer approach	40.20	20.34	47	6	295	35	4	219
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	50.54	25.32	47	6	295	32	4	203
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	66.32	33.25	47	6	295	28	3	181
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	5.10	2.64	47	6	295	45	6	284
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	9.04	4.52	47	6	295	44	5	276
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	12.12	6.05	47	6	295	43	5	270
Lesser Black-backed gull	Forth Islands SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	1.97	0.30	18768	11852	29401	18527	11697	29032
Lesser Black-backed gull	Forth Islands SPA	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	2.76	0.42	18768	11852	29401	18431	11635	28885
Lesser Black-backed gull	Farne Islands SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.51	0.08	6852	4312	10828	6784	4268	10722
Lesser Black-backed gull	Farne Islands SPA	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	0.72	0.11	6852	4312	10828	6757	4252	10683
Lesser Black-backed gull	Coquet SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.01	0.00	13	4	43	13	4	43
Lesser Black-backed gull	Coquet SPA	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	0.01	0.00	13	4	43	13	4	43
Puffin	Forth Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	44.31	51.11	243955	96523	542889	238783	94423	531535
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	159.39	183.80	243955	96523	542889	225847	89177	503131
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	265.10	306.16	243955	96523	542889	214574	84601	478373
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	5.11	6.01	243955	96523	542889	243348	96276	541558
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	18.19	21.44	243955	96523	542889	241799	95648	538155
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	29.80	35.56	243955	96523	542889	240414	95085	535113
Puffin	Farne Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	4.82	6.69	483381	196815	1079847	482229	196336	1077315
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	17.31	23.75	483381	196815	1079847	479280	195110	1070825
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	28.80	39.44	483381	196815	1079847	476592	193989	1064891
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3.62	4.89	483381	196815	1079847	482525	196462	1077968
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	12.91	17.45	483381	196815	1079847	480338	195552	1073157
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	21.40	28.94	483381	196815	1079847	478355	194725	1068778
Puffin	North Caithness Cliffs SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	8.23	8.51	3047	779	9437	2690	685	8366
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	29.48	30.67	3047	779	9437	1942	488	6123
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	49.15	51.12	3047	779	9437	1436	356	4597
Razorbill	Forth Islands SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	13.56	11.86	28645	14780	51528	26690	13766	48091
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	44.82	40.11	28645	14780	51528	22638	11654	40915
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	77.28	69.01	28645	14780	51528	19080	9795	34602
		North Sea Consented developer approach	17.26	14.06	28645	14780	51528	26248	13534	47305
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	49.32	42.61	28645	14780	51528	22189	11419	40115
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	90.58	76.71	28645	14780	51528	17963	9215	32605
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3.56	3.06	28645	14780	51528	28122	14508	50610
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	10.62	9.51	28645	14780	51528	27087	13972	48794
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	18.98	17.31	28645	14780	51528	25906	13356	46708
Razorbill	St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	3.22	3.05	23085	12393	41063	22346	11989	39764
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	9.69	9.70	23085	12393	41063	20883	11188	37188
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	17.32	16.91	23085	12393	41063	19326	10339	34451
		North Sea Consented developer approach	4.92	4.05	23085	12393	41063	22023	11814	39196
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	11.79	10.90	23085	12393	41063	20512	10986	36537
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	23.52	20.51	23085	12393	41063	18327	9795	32688
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	2.62	2.65	23085	12393	41063	22466	12054	39975
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	8.29	8.70	23085	12393	41063	21150	11333	37661
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	14.42	14.91	23085	12393	41063	19840	10618	35354
Razorbill	Fowlsheugh SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	15.64	12.85	29933	12538	65441	28834	12077	63086
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	50.93	42.76	29933	12538	65441	26485	11086	58013
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	88.25	73.38	29933	12538	65441	24224	10137	53142
		North Sea Consented developer approach	20.74	15.75	29933	12538	65441	28527	11947	62426
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	57.23	46.46	29933	12538	65441	26134	10938	57257
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	106.70	84.18	29933	12538	65441	23293	9743	51130
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	4.34	3.25	29933	12538	65441	29635	12412	64801
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	12.73	9.76	29933	12538	65441	29059	12170	63568
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	22.95	17.38	29933	12538	65441	28382	11887	62117
Razorbill	Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads	North Sea Consented developer approach	4.05	2.50	10168	4258	22231	9909	4150	21679
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	6.06	3.95	10168	4258	22231	9777	4094	21395
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	15.65	9.79	10168	4258	22231	9201	3851	20160
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.75	0.52	10168	4258	22231	10118	4237	22125
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	1.46	1.05	10168	4258	22231	10069	4217	22021
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	3.25	2.29	10168	4258	22231	9951	4166	21768
Razorbill	Farne Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	0.50	0.20	3988	2118	7206	3884	2063	7021
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.62	0.50	3988	2118	7206	3829	2033	6926
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	1.76	1.20	3988	2118	7206	3578	1899	6474
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.10	0.08	3988	2118	7206	3963	2105	7162
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.22	0.20	3988	2118	7206	3928	2086	7100
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.46	0.40	3988	2118	7206	3867	2053	6989
Razorbill	East Caithness cliffs	North Sea Consented developer approach	48.02	32.17	65650	29085	143345	62627	27723	136825
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	113.00	80.21	65650	29085	143345	58617	25920	128166
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	228.38	157.57	65650	29085	143345	52316	23087	114547
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3.92	2.57	65650	29085	143345	65400	28972	142807
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	5.30	3.51	65650	29085	143345	65311	28932	142614
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	14.78	9.77	65650	29085	143345	64709	28661	141317
Razorbill	Flamborough and Filey Coast	North Sea Consented developer approach	41.90	12.10	192211	102337	335748	186098	99093	325181
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	102.78	14.79	192211	102337	335748	178834	95189	312660
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	203.34	43.94	192211	102337	335748	165511	87925	289492
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3.00	2.17	192211	102337	335748	191647	102033	334768
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	3.78	2.79	192211	102337	335748	191495	101951	334505
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	11.04	8.04	192211	102337	335748	190137	101221	332153

Table 3.2: 2077 projection – summary of specific mortality scenarios. Suffixes of 2.5% and 97.5% give the central 95% of projected/simulated population sizes

Species	SPA	Scenario	Estimated adult mortality	Estimated immature mortality	Unimpacted median population size	Unimpacted median population size (2.5%)	Unimpacted median population size (97.5%)	Impacted median population size	Impacted median population size (2.5%)	Impacted median population size (97.5%)
Gannet	Forth Islands SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	583.34	17.75	1946799	987991	3466133	1680845	853159	2995590
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	610.70	18.93	1946799	987991	3466133	1669167	847258	2974995
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	822.44	28.12	1946799	987991	3466133	1582193	802935	2820552
		North Sea Consented developer approach	800.34	167.85	1946799	987991	3466133	1553444	787755	2771071
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	827.70	174.03	1946799	987991	3466133	1541333	781611	2749721
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	1112.84	239.72	1946799	987991	3466133	1420659	720170	2536132
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	154.14	5.55	1946799	987991	3466133	1872658	950274	3334585
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	183.04	6.73	1946799	987991	3466133	1859720	943699	3311649
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	243.24	10.82	1946799	987991	3466133	1830410	928799	3259729
Gannet	Flamborough and Filey Coast	North Sea As-built: developer approach	301.88	35.78	504371	268580	871782	325679	173047	563389
		North Sea As built Approach a	302.03	35.90	504371	268580	871782	325578	172994	563218
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	438.26	48.92	504371	268580	871782	267979	142317	464201
		North Sea Consented developer approach	351.48	36.38	504371	268580	871782	304501	161783	526945
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	351.99	36.51	504371	268580	871782	304257	161652	526526
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	487.86	49.52	504371	268580	871782	250668	133096	434411
Gannet	North Rona and Sula Sgeir	North Sea Consented developer approach	4.25	3.10	243141	122494	437074	240562	121179	432495
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	4.33	3.10	243141	122494	437074	240529	121161	432439
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	6.08	4.41	243141	122494	437074	239468	120621	430554
Gannet	Fair Isle	North Sea Consented developer approach	10.57	8.42	94613	50903	161865	89022	47860	152382
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	10.66	8.42	94613	50903	161865	88992	47843	152330
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	14.42	11.55	94613	50903	161865	87058	46787	149040
Gannet	Noss	North Sea Consented developer approach	35.08	28.51	310428	166490	527785	288556	154569	491012
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	35.37	27.72	310428	166490	527785	288655	154624	491167
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	48.68	37.93	310428	166490	527785	280914	150409	478135
Gannet	Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field	North Sea Consented developer approach	75.30	60.07	533584	269654	950432	489847	247299	873091
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	76.81	60.11	533584	269654	950432	489294	247025	872110
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	104.20	82.26	533584	269654	950432	474217	239342	845439
Guillemot	Forth Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	82.82	80.12	136427	73734	242852	118627	63993	211129
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	200.88	200.60	136427	73734	242852	96642	52016	172026
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	398.91	392.06	136427	73734	242852	68929	36970	122733
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	37.42	36.62	136427	73734	242852	128047	69144	227911
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	91.58	91.20	136427	73734	242852	116666	62918	207626
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	180.51	178.26	136427	73734	242852	100240	53972	178429
Guillemot	St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	131.01	132.85	260376	138288	454623	229270	121564	400769
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	371.05	370.16	260376	138288	454623	181783	96211	318407
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	695.77	688.70	260376	138288	454623	132798	70034	233282
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	110.84	109.62	260376	138288	454623	234510	124387	409850
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	310.95	311.66	260376	138288	454623	192622	101963	337174
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	576.12	573.96	260376	138288	454623	148660	78480	261009
Guillemot	Fowlsheugh SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	154.10	149.42	387371	205735	676360	350948	186187	613336
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	430.29	423.20	387371	205735	676360	293374	155282	513429
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	800.04	781.75	387371	205735	676360	231005	122019	405346
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	89.20	88.52	387371	205735	676360	365673	194098	638795
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	259.91	261.04	387371	205735	676360	327053	173306	571916
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	473.32	472.88	387371	205735	676360	284541	150613	498105
Guillemot	Farne Islands SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	36.92	40.21	620412	346131	1096507	604955	337405	1069384
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	79.84	88.67	620412	346131	1096507	587201	327374	1038311
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	167.20	183.90	620412	346131	1096507	552745	307903	977807
Guillemot	Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	6.03	6.16	163160	89006	292409	161674	88193	289762
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	12.57	13.30	163160	89006	292409	160031	87293	286832
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	27.10	28.09	163160	89006	292409	156557	85384	280621
		North Sea Consented developer approach	8.53	8.06	163160	89006	292409	161130	87895	288793
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	18.77	17.91	163160	89006	292409	158710	86567	284475
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	39.30	37.09	163160	89006	292409	154028	83990	276115
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	4.93	4.76	163160	89006	292409	161973	88356	290295
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	9.57	9.40	163160	89006	292409	160847	87740	288289
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	21.40	20.79	163160	89006	292409	158060	86210	283315
Guillemot	Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads	North Sea Consented developer approach	10.36	8.33	195445	121032	308641	191956	118866	303158
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	22.34	17.61	195445	121032	308641	188049	116440	297022
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	47.55	37.57	195445	121032	308641	180005	111433	284405
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	2.47	2.19	195445	121032	308641	194072	120180	306482
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	5.19	4.7	195445	121032	308641	192971	119497	304749
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	11.10	9.97	195445	121032	308641	189662	117445	299549
Herring gull	Forth Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	15.17	4.04	269483	142562	499062	257643	136232	477655
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach	22.10	5.30	269483	142562	499062	252678	133568	468664
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	10.17	1.74	269483	142562	499062	261933	138524	485465
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	17.10	3.00	269483	142562	499062	256884	135813	476345
Herring gull	Fowlsheugh SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	1.11	0.50	38196	19705	70443	37054	19104	68368
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach	1.52	0.58	38196	19705	70443	36688	18913	67706
		North Sea Consented developer approach	2.91	0.50	38196	19705	70443	35695	18385	65941
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach	3.32	0.58	38196	19705	70443	35346	18200	65315
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.61	0.10	38196	19705	70443	37664	19427	69483
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	1.02	0.18	38196	19705	70443	37300	19229	68825
Herring gull	St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	0.74	0.27	14646	7551	27064	14001	7207	25879
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach	1.06	0.33	14646	7551	27064	13767	7086	25456
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.44	0.07	14646	7551	27064	14301	7367	26441
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	0.76	0.13	14646	7551	27064	14066	7237	26005
Herring gull	Farne Islands SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.52	0.09	37662	19971	71278	37232	19737	70489
Herring gull	Farne Islands SPA	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	0.87	0.15	37662	19971	71278	36944	19582	69960
Kittiwake	Forth Islands SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	56.22	4.23	1457	475	4100	1124	365	3185
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	58.21	4.52	1457	475	4100	1114	361	3156
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	77.22	6.44	1457	475	4100	1019	329	2892
		North Sea Consented developer approach	64.82	8.33	1457	475	4100	1069	347	3032
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	68.21	9.42	1457	475	4100	1050	340	2978
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	89.92	12.54	1457	475	4100	946	305	2688
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	28.82	1.63	1457	475	4100	1278	415	3608
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	36.21	2.32	1457	475	4100	1235	401	3490
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	43.32	2.94	1457	475	4100	1195	388	3379
Kittiwake	Fowlsheugh SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	141.70	10.80	10858	3858	28376	8795	3120	23127
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	155.35	12.51	10858	3858	28376	8611	3053	22663
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	197.25	16.94	10858	3858	28376	8083	2863	21316
		North Sea Consented developer approach	183.60	24.10	10858	3858	28376	8182	2899	21549
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	200.35	27.91	10858	3858	28376	7961	2819	20982
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	252.35	36.24	10858	3858	28376	7335	2595	19384
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	87.03	4.90	10858	3858	28376	9561	3393	25072
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	109.05	7.01	10858	3858	28376	9245	3281	24268
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	130.45	8.84	10858	3858	28376	8953	3176	23531
Kittiwake	St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	266.61	10.50	1633	544	4647	605	195	1756
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	323.33	12.94	1633	544	4647	489	157	1423
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	388.73	16.15	1633	544	4647	382	121	1120
		North Sea Consented developer approach	275.71	15.00	1633	544	4647	578	186	1680
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	333.83	18.24	1633	544	4647	464	148	1352
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	402.23	22.95	1633	544	4647	357	113	1048
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	253.21	9.40	1633	544	4647	636	205	1848
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	312.63	11.94	1633	544	4647	510	163	1484
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	371.33	14.35	1633	544	4647	409	130	1198
Kittiwake	Farne Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	33.18	6.60	3998	1495	10192	3407	1270	8707
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	41.13	8.21	3998	1495	10192	3278	1222	8384
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	50.69	10.62	3998	1495	10192	3125	1164	7999
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	23.18	1.50	3998	1495	10192	3608	1346	9215
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	29.33	2.21	3998	1495	10192	3508	1308	8963
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	35.19	2.82	3998	1495	10192	3415	1273	8730
Kittiwake	Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	14.16	4.65	2497	831	7121	2421	806	6908
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	20.77	7.24	2497	831	7121	2386	794	6807
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	27.51	10.18	2497	831	7121	2349	781	6703
		North Sea As-built: develper approach	63.36	19.25	2497	831	7121	2180	725	6227
		North Sea As built Approach a	75.37	24.54	2497	831	7121	2120	705	6058
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	93.11	32.78	2497	831	7121	2034	676	5815
		North Sea Consented developer approach	68.16	21.75	2497	831	7121	2155	716	6156
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	80.17	27.04	2497	831	7121	2096	697	5989
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	97.91	35.28	2497	831	7121	2010	668	5749
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	11.06	2.95	2497	831	7121	2440	812	6959
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	16.47	4.94	2497	831	7121	2411	803	6877
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	21.01	6.58	2497	831	7121	2387	794	6809
Kittiwake	Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads	North Sea As-built: develper approach	60.06	23.44	46997	19922	104504	41516	17576	92414
		North Sea As built Approach a	69.77	29.39	46997	19922	104504	40594	17182	90384
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	96.82	39.79	46997	19922	104504	38391	16241	85524
		North Sea Consented developer approach	65.66	26.44	46997	19922	104504	41001	17357	91281
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	75.47	32.39	46997	19922	104504	40084	16964	89260
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	102.52	42.79	46997	19922	104504	37907	16035	84456
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	8.66	3.34	46997	19922	104504	46166	19567	102670
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	14.07	5.69	46997	19922	104504	45641	19342	101518
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	18.42	7.59	46997	19922	104504	45224	19164	100595
Kittiwake	East Caithness cliffs	North Sea As-built: develper approach	276.52	74.45	84181	26789	240755	66603	21089	190803
		North Sea As built Approach a	277.61	88.37	84181	26789	240755	66103	20935	189402
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	395.62	120.80	84181	26789	240755	59772	18875	171411
		North Sea Consented developer approach	291.92	82.55	84181	26789	240755	65613	20768	187992
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	293.11	96.47	84181	26789	240755	65110	20616	186593
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	411.12	128.90	84181	26789	240755	58878	18586	168869
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	18.39	8.85	84181	26789	240755	82726	26321	236629
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	30.71	15.17	84181	26789	240755	81749	26008	233863
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	41.12	20.30	84181	26789	240755	80946	25748	231571
Kittiwake	North Caithness Cliffs SPA	North Sea As-built: develper approach	35.94	15.62	4768	1369	15463	3822	1092	12434
		North Sea As built Approach a	43.42	19.81	4768	1369	15463	3638	1039	11846
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	58.71	26.59	4768	1369	15463	3306	943	10788
		North Sea Consented developer approach	39.84	17.62	4768	1369	15463	3728	1065	12130
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	47.22	21.81	4768	1369	15463	3549	1013	11561
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	62.51	28.59	4768	1369	15463	3225	920	10528
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	4.54	2.22	4768	1369	15463	4633	1329	15032
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	7.62	3.81	4768	1369	15463	4543	1303	14742
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	10.21	5.09	4768	1369	15463	4469	1282	14506
Kittiwake	Coquet island	North Sea Consented developer approach	1.70	0.70	2605	1110	5755	2406	1024	5322
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	2.09	0.80	2605	1110	5755	2366	1006	5234
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	2.74	1.10	2605	1110	5755	2292	974	5070
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.30	0.00	2605	1110	5755	2576	1097	5696
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.49	0.00	2605	1110	5755	2560	1090	5657
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.64	0.00	2605	1110	5755	2544	1083	5624
Kittiwake	Flamborough and Filey Coast	North Sea As-built: develper approach	410.67	61.14	45556	14847	128812	37900	12277	107535
		North Sea As built Approach a	441.91	76.92	45556	14847	128812	37255	12063	105728
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	491.30	101.50	45556	14847	128812	36261	11734	102944
		North Sea Consented developer approach	445.57	70.34	45556	14847	128812	37266	12066	105767
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	476.81	86.02	45556	14847	128812	36633	11857	103993
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	526.17	110.58	45556	14847	128812	35656	11535	101255
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	17.05	8.24	45556	14847	128812	45137	14707	127653
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	28.51	14.12	45556	14847	128812	44854	14613	126865
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	38.17	18.88	45556	14847	128812	44618	14534	126214
Kittiwake	West Westray	North Sea As-built: develper approach	35.60	17.94	9	1	79	6	0	54
		North Sea As built Approach a	45.84	22.92	9	1	79	5	0	49
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	61.72	30.85	9	1	79	4	0	41
		North Sea Consented developer approach	40.20	20.34	9	1	79	6	0	51
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	50.54	25.32	9	1	79	5	0	46
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	66.32	33.25	9	1	79	4	0	39
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	5.10	2.64	9	1	79	9	0	74
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	9.04	4.52	9	1	79	8	0	72
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	12.12	6.05	9	1	79	8	0	69
Lesser Black-backed gull	Forth Islands SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	1.97	0.30	33141	19500	54906	32549	19143	53933
Lesser Black-backed gull	Forth Islands SPA	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	2.76	0.42	33141	19500	54906	32312	19001	53545
Lesser Black-backed gull	Farne Islands SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.51	0.08	12130	7227	20323	11961	7124	20046
Lesser Black-backed gull	Farne Islands SPA	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	0.72	0.11	12130	7227	20323	11896	7086	19943
Lesser Black-backed gull	Coquet SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.01	0.00	9	2	35	9	2	35
Lesser Black-backed gull	Coquet SPA	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	0.01	0.00	9	2	35	9	2	35
Puffin	Forth Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	44.31	51.11	351192	121139	897183	340671	117448	870888
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	159.39	183.80	351192	121139	897183	314883	108374	806291
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	265.10	306.16	351192	121139	897183	292804	100658	751027
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	5.11	6.01	351192	121139	897183	349953	120705	894058
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	18.19	21.44	351192	121139	897183	346793	119596	886144
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	29.80	35.56	351192	121139	897183	343975	118609	879136
Puffin	Farne Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	4.82	6.69	878308	312732	2183913	875343	311657	2176721
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	17.31	23.75	878308	312732	2183913	867764	308909	2158295
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	28.80	39.44	878308	312732	2183913	860850	306402	2141478
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3.62	4.89	878308	312732	2183913	876106	311933	2178566
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	12.91	17.45	878308	312732	2183913	870487	309897	2164905
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	21.40	28.94	878308	312732	2183913	865378	308046	2152482
Puffin	North Caithness Cliffs SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	8.23	8.51	2991	614	11127	2505	511	9377
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	29.48	30.67	2991	614	11127	1582	318	5998
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	49.15	51.12	2991	614	11127	1029	202	3943
Razorbill	Forth Islands SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	13.56	11.86	43439	20553	86926	39308	18579	78744
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	44.82	40.11	43439	20553	86926	31118	14659	62495
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	77.28	69.01	43439	20553	86926	24404	11467	49168
		North Sea Consented developer approach	17.26	14.06	43439	20553	86926	38390	18138	76913
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	49.32	42.61	43439	20553	86926	30250	14246	60756
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	90.58	76.71	43439	20553	86926	22413	10520	45155
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3.56	3.06	43439	20553	86926	42324	20020	84718
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	10.62	9.51	43439	20553	86926	40135	18974	80398
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	18.98	17.31	43439	20553	86926	37682	17797	75500
Razorbill	St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	3.22	3.05	44161	21772	85831	42173	20774	81995
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	9.69	9.70	44161	21772	85831	38300	18848	74539
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	17.32	16.91	44161	21772	85831	34334	16865	66874
		North Sea Consented developer approach	4.92	4.05	44161	21772	85831	41312	20347	80347
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	11.79	10.90	44161	21772	85831	37349	18371	72709
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	23.52	20.51	44161	21772	85831	31848	15630	62115
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	2.62	2.65	44161	21772	85831	42492	20934	82612
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	8.29	8.70	44161	21772	85831	38997	19195	75879
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	14.42	14.91	44161	21772	85831	35627	17511	69355
Razorbill	Fowlsheugh SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	15.64	12.85	35593	13292	86312	33759	12606	81900
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	50.93	42.76	35593	13292	86312	29914	11153	72630
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	88.25	73.38	35593	13292	86312	26370	9830	64056
		North Sea Consented developer approach	20.74	15.75	35593	13292	86312	33252	12413	80679
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	57.23	46.46	35593	13292	86312	29354	10941	71281
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	106.70	84.18	35593	13292	86312	24940	9290	60626
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	4.34	3.25	35593	13292	86312	35092	13105	85109
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	12.73	9.76	35593	13292	86312	34132	12745	82798
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	22.95	17.38	35593	13292	86312	33014	12323	80108
Razorbill	Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads	North Sea Consented developer approach	4.05	2.50	12090	4515	29321	11659	4352	28284
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	6.06	3.95	12090	4515	29321	11440	4269	27756
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	15.65	9.79	12090	4515	29321	10500	3913	25496
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.75	0.52	12090	4515	29321	12006	4483	29117
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	1.46	1.05	12090	4515	29321	11925	4452	28921
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	3.25	2.29	12090	4515	29321	11727	4378	28449
Razorbill	Farne Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	0.50	0.20	7622	3673	15272	7346	3537	14720
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.62	0.50	7622	3673	15272	7198	3468	14429
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	1.76	1.20	7622	3673	15272	6540	3147	13126
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.10	0.08	7622	3673	15272	7553	3640	15134
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.22	0.20	7622	3673	15272	7462	3595	14956
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.46	0.40	7622	3673	15272	7295	3515	14627
Razorbill	East Caithness cliffs	North Sea Consented developer approach	48.02	32.17	78982	30251	191307	73891	28279	179052
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	113.00	80.21	78982	30251	191307	67312	25731	163150
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	228.38	157.57	78982	30251	191307	57296	21867	139059
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3.92	2.57	78982	30251	191307	78558	30086	190285
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	5.30	3.51	78982	30251	191307	78408	30028	189920
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	14.78	9.77	78982	30251	191307	77392	29633	187468
Razorbill	Flamborough and Filey Coast	North Sea Consented developer approach	41.90	12.10	334324	161669	642843	319383	154329	614650
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	102.78	14.79	334324	161669	642843	302009	145701	581857
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	203.34	43.94	334324	161669	642843	270700	130460	521871
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3.00	2.17	334324	161669	642843	332938	160991	640202
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	3.78	2.79	334324	161669	642843	332564	160810	639493
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	11.04	8.04	334324	161669	642843	329230	159184	633161

Table 3.3: 2062 projection – summary of specific mortality scenarios, selected counterfactuals

Species	SPA	Scenario	Estimated adult mortality	Estimated immature mortality	Counterfactual Population Size -median	Counterfactual of population growth rate - median	Unimpacted centile at impacted 50th centile (median)
Gannet	Forth Islands SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	583.34	17.75	0.901	0.997	35.6
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	610.70	18.93	0.897	0.997	34.9
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	822.44	28.12	0.863	0.996	30.6
		North Sea Consented developer approach	800.34	167.85	0.853	0.996	29.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	827.70	174.03	0.848	0.995	28.5
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	1112.84	239.72	0.800	0.994	21.9
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	154.14	5.55	0.973	0.999	46.2
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	183.04	6.73	0.968	0.999	45.6
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	245.17	10.82	0.957	0.999	44.0
Gannet	Flamborough and Filey Coast	North Sea As-built: developer approach	301.88	35.78	0.734	0.991	13.0
		North Sea As built Approach a	302.03	35.90	0.733	0.991	13.0
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	438.26	48.92	0.639	0.988	5.0
		North Sea Consented developer approach	351.48	36.38	0.699	0.990	9.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	351.99	36.51	0.699	0.990	9.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	487.86	49.52	0.609	0.986	3.5
Gannet	North Rona and Sula Sgeir	North Sea Consented developer approach	4.25	3.10	0.993	1.000	48.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	4.33	3.10	0.992	1.000	48.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	6.08	4.41	0.989	1.000	48.3
Gannet	Fair Isle	North Sea Consented developer approach	10.57	8.42	0.958	0.999	44.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	10.66	8.42	0.958	0.999	44.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	14.42	11.55	0.943	0.998	42.0
Gannet	Noss	North Sea Consented developer approach	35.08	28.51	0.950	0.999	42.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	35.37	27.72	0.950	0.999	42.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	48.68	37.93	0.932	0.998	39.8
Gannet	Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field	North Sea Consented developer approach	75.30	60.07	0.942	0.998	41.6
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	76.81	60.11	0.941	0.998	41.4
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	104.20	82.26	0.920	0.998	38.3
Guillemot	Forth Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	82.82	80.12	0.906	0.997	35.6
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	200.88	200.60	0.784	0.993	18.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	398.91	392.06	0.618	0.987	3.7
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	37.42	36.62	0.956	0.999	43.3
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	91.58	91.20	0.895	0.997	33.8
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	180.51	178.26	0.804	0.994	20.6
Guillemot	St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	131.01	132.85	0.914	0.998	37.4
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	371.05	370.16	0.776	0.993	18.2
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	695.77	688.70	0.622	0.987	4.5
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	110.84	109.62	0.929	0.998	39.2
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	310.95	311.66	0.809	0.994	22.1
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	576.12	53.96	0.674	0.989	7.8
Guillemot	Fowlsheugh SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	154.10	149.42	0.933	0.998	39.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	430.29	423.20	0.822	0.995	23.7
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	800.04	781.75	0.695	0.990	9.6
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	89.20	88.52	0.960	0.999	44.3
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	259.91	261.04	0.887	0.997	33.3
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	473.32	472.88	0.805	0.994	21.7
Guillemot	Farne Islands SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	36.92	40.21	0.982	1.000	47.4
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	79.84	88.67	0.962	0.999	44.0
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	167.20	183.90	0.922	0.998	37.1
Guillemot	Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	6.03	6.16	0.994	1.000	49.0
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	12.57	13.30	0.986	1.000	47.7
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	27.10	28.09	0.971	0.999	45.6
		North Sea Consented developer approach	8.53	8.06	0.991	1.000	48.6
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	18.77	17.91	0.981	0.999	46.7
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	39.30	37.09	0.960	0.999	43.9
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	4.93	4.76	0.995	1.000	49.3
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	9.57	9.40	0.990	1.000	48.4
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	21.40	20.79	0.978	0.999	46.4
Guillemot	Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads	North Sea Consented developer approach	10.36	8.33	0.987	1.000	47.5
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	22.34	17.61	0.973	0.999	44.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	47.55	37.57	0.944	0.998	39.5
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	2.47	2.19	0.995	1.000	49.0
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	5.19	4.70	0.991	1.000	48.3
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	11.10	9.97	0.979	0.999	46.3
Herring gull	Forth Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	15.17	4.04	0.969	0.999	45.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach	22.10	5.30	0.955	0.999	44.0
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	10.17	1.74	0.980	0.999	47.3
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	17.10	3.00	0.967	0.999	45.6
Herring gull	Fowlsheugh SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	1.11	0.50	0.979	0.999	47.0
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach	1.52	0.58	0.972	0.999	46.1
		North Sea Consented developer approach	2.91	0.50	0.953	0.999	44.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach	3.32	0.58	0.946	0.998	42.7
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.61	0.10	0.990	1.000	48.7
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	1.02	0.18	0.983	1.000	47.6
Herring gull	St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	0.74	0.27	0.969	0.999	45.6
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach	1.06	0.33	0.957	0.999	43.9
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.44	0.07	0.983	1.000	47.5
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	0.76	0.13	0.971	0.999	45.9
Herring gull	Farne Islands SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.52	0.09	0.992	1.000	49.1
Herring gull	Farne Islands SPA	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	0.87	0.15	0.986	1.000	48.2
Kittiwake	Forth Islands SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	56.22	4.23	0.833	0.995	36.1
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	58.21	4.52	0.827	0.995	35.7
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	77.22	6.44	0.777	0.993	31.2
		North Sea Consented developer approach	64.82	8.33	0.804	0.994	33.7
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	68.21	9.42	0.794	0.994	32.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	89.92	12.54	0.737	0.992	27.5
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	28.82	1.63	0.912	0.997	42.8
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	36.21	2.32	0.890	0.997	40.7
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	43.32	2.94	0.869	0.996	39.0
Kittiwake	Fowlsheugh SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	141.70	10.80	0.861	0.996	35.7
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	155.35	12.51	0.849	0.995	34.6
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	197.25	16.94	0.811	0.994	30.5
		North Sea Consented developer approach	183.60	24.10	0.818	0.994	31.3
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	200.35	27.91	0.803	0.994	29.6
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	252.35	36.24	0.758	0.992	25.5
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	87.03	4.90	0.914	0.997	41.0
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	109.05	7.01	0.892	0.997	38.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	130.45	8.84	0.872	0.996	36.8
Kittiwake	St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	266.61	10.50	0.494	0.981	7.6
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	323.33	12.94	0.425	0.977	4.2
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	388.73	16.15	0.357	0.972	1.8
		North Sea Consented developer approach	275.71	15.00	0.479	0.980	7.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	333.83	18.24	0.410	0.976	3.5
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	402.23	22.95	0.341	0.971	1.3
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	253.21	9.40	0.513	0.982	8.7
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	312.63	11.94	0.438	0.977	4.7
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	371.33	14.35	0.375	0.973	2.2
Kittiwake	Farne Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	33.18	6.60	0.893	0.997	39.2
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	41.13	8.21	0.869	0.996	37.2
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	50.69	10.62	0.840	0.995	34.3
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	23.18	1.50	0.930	0.998	43.1
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	29.33	2.21	0.911	0.997	41.1
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	35.19	2.82	0.894	0.997	39.3
Kittiwake	Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	14.16	4.65	0.978	0.999	48.3
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	20.77	7.24	0.968	0.999	47.3
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	27.51	10.18	0.958	0.999	46.6
		North Sea As-built: develper approach	63.36	19.25	0.908	0.997	41.9
		North Sea As built Approach a	75.37	24.54	0.891	0.997	40.6
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	93.11	32.78	0.865	0.996	38.5
		North Sea Consented developer approach	68.16	21.75	0.901	0.997	41.2
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	80.17	27.04	0.883	0.997	40.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	97.91	35.28	0.858	0.996	37.7
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	11.06	2.95	0.984	1.000	48.6
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	16.47	4.94	0.975	0.999	47.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	21.01	6.58	0.968	0.999	47.3
Kittiwake	Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads	North Sea As-built: develper approach	60.06	23.44	0.916	0.998	41.0
		North Sea As built Approach a	69.77	29.39	0.902	0.997	39.4
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	96.82	39.79	0.867	0.996	35.2
		North Sea Consented developer approach	65.66	26.44	0.908	0.997	40.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	75.47	32.39	0.894	0.997	38.4
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	102.52	42.79	0.859	0.996	34.1
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	9.01	3.34	0.987	1.000	48.6
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	14.07	5.69	0.980	0.999	47.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	18.42	7.59	0.973	0.999	47.4
Kittiwake	East Caithness cliffs	North Sea As-built: develper approach	276.52	74.45	0.847	0.995	37.3
		North Sea As built Approach a	277.61	88.37	0.843	0.995	36.8
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	395.62	120.80	0.785	0.993	32.3
		North Sea Consented developer approach	291.92	82.55	0.838	0.995	36.4
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	293.11	96.47	0.834	0.995	36.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	411.12	128.90	0.777	0.993	31.6
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	18.39	8.85	0.988	1.000	49.1
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	30.71	15.17	0.980	0.999	48.5
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	41.12	20.30	0.973	0.999	47.8
Kittiwake	North Caithness Cliffs SPA	North Sea As-built: develper approach	35.94	15.62	0.855	0.996	38.2
		North Sea As built Approach a	43.42	19.81	0.826	0.995	35.5
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	58.71	26.59	0.772	0.993	30.8
		North Sea Consented developer approach	39.84	17.62	0.840	0.995	37.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	47.22	21.81	0.811	0.994	34.3
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	62.51	28.59	0.759	0.992	29.8
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	4.54	2.22	0.980	0.999	48.7
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	7.62	3.81	0.966	0.999	47.3
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	10.21	5.09	0.955	0.999	46.7
Kittiwake	Coquet island	North Sea Consented developer approach	1.70	0.70	0.945	0.998	43.4
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	2.09	0.80	0.934	0.998	42.4
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	2.74	1.10	0.913	0.997	40.1
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.30	0.00	0.992	1.000	49.0
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.49	0.00	0.987	1.000	48.4
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.64	0.00	0.983	1.000	47.9
Kittiwake	Flamborough and Filey Coast	North Sea As-built: develper approach	410.67	61.14	0.878	0.996	39.5
		North Sea As built Approach a	441.91	76.92	0.867	0.996	38.5
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	491.30	101.50	0.851	0.996	37.1
		North Sea Consented developer approach	445.57	70.34	0.868	0.996	38.5
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	476.81	86.02	0.857	0.996	37.6
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	526.17	110.58	0.841	0.995	36.2
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	17.05	8.24	0.994	1.000	49.6
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	28.51	14.12	0.989	1.000	49.3
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	38.17	18.88	0.985	1.000	48.9
Kittiwake	West Westray	North Sea As-built: develper approach	35.60	17.94	0.761	0.992	39.5
		North Sea As built Approach a	45.84	22.92	0.703	0.990	36.4
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	61.72	30.85	0.621	0.987	31.6
		North Sea Consented developer approach	40.20	20.34	0.734	0.991	38.1
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	50.54	25.32	0.677	0.989	34.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	66.32	33.25	0.599	0.986	30.6
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	5.10	2.64	0.962	0.999	48.5
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	9.04	4.52	0.934	0.998	47.2
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	12.12	6.05	0.912	0.997	46.2
Lesser Black-backed gull	Forth Islands SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	1.97	0.30	0.987	1.000	47.7
Lesser Black-backed gull	Forth Islands SPA	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	2.76	0.42	0.982	0.999	46.7
Lesser Black-backed gull	Farne Islands SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.51	0.08	0.990	1.000	48.0
Lesser Black-backed gull	Farne Islands SPA	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	0.72	0.11	0.986	1.000	47.3
Lesser Black-backed gull	Coquet SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.01	0.00	0.996	1.000	49.6
Lesser Black-backed gull	Coquet SPA	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approacha	0.01	0.00	0.995	1.000	49.5
Puffin	Forth Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	44.31	51.11	0.979	0.999	47.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	159.39	183.80	0.926	0.998	43.1
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	265.10	306.16	0.880	0.996	38.9
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	5.11	6.01	0.998	1.000	49.7
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	18.19	21.44	0.991	1.000	48.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	29.80	35.56	0.986	1.000	48.3
Puffin	Farne Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	4.82	6.69	0.998	1.000	49.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	17.31	23.75	0.992	1.000	49.1
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	28.80	39.44	0.986	1.000	48.6
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3.62	4.89	0.998	1.000	49.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	12.91	17.45	0.994	1.000	49.3
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	21.40	28.94	0.990	1.000	48.9
Puffin	North Caithness Cliffs SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	8.23	8.51	0.883	0.997	42.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	29.48	30.67	0.638	0.988	26.2
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	49.15	51.12	0.471	0.979	14.6
Razorbill	Forth Islands SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	13.56	11.86	0.932	0.998	41.7
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	44.82	40.11	0.790	0.993	23.6
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	77.28	69.01	0.666	0.989	11.0
		North Sea Consented developer approach	17.26	14.06	0.917	0.998	39.4
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	49.32	42.61	0.775	0.993	21.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	90.58	76.71	0.627	0.987	8.1
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3.56	3.06	0.982	0.999	48.0
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	10.62	9.51	0.946	0.998	43.4
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	18.98	17.31	0.905	0.997	38.2
Razorbill	St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	3.22	3.05	0.968	0.999	45.5
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	9.69	9.70	0.904	0.997	37.1
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	17.32	16.91	0.837	0.995	27.9
		North Sea Consented developer approach	4.92	4.05	0.954	0.999	43.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	11.79	10.90	0.889	0.997	35.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	23.52	20.51	0.794	0.994	22.4
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	2.62	2.65	0.973	0.999	46.2
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	8.29	8.70	0.916	0.998	38.6
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	14.42	14.91	0.859	0.996	31.1
Razorbill	Fowlsheugh SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	15.64	12.85	0.963	0.999	47.0
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	50.93	42.76	0.885	0.997	38.8
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	88.25	73.38	0.809	0.994	30.9
		North Sea Consented developer approach	20.74	15.75	0.953	0.999	46.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	57.23	46.46	0.873	0.996	37.6
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	106.70	84.18	0.778	0.993	27.7
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	4.34	3.25	0.990	1.000	48.8
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	12.73	9.76	0.971	0.999	47.5
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	22.95	17.38	0.948	0.999	45.6
Razorbill	Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads	North Sea Consented developer approach	4.05	2.50	0.975	0.999	47.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	6.06	3.95	0.962	0.999	46.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	15.65	9.79	0.905	0.997	41.1
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.75	0.52	0.995	1.000	49.4
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	1.46	1.05	0.990	1.000	48.8
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	3.25	2.29	0.979	0.999	48.1
Razorbill	Farne Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	0.50	0.20	0.974	0.999	46.4
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.62	0.50	0.960	0.999	44.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	1.76	1.20	0.897	0.997	37.1
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.10	0.08	0.994	1.000	49.2
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.22	0.20	0.985	1.000	47.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.46	0.40	0.970	0.999	45.8
Razorbill	East Caithness cliffs	North Sea Consented developer approach	48.02	32.17	0.954	0.999	45.6
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	113.00	80.21	0.893	0.997	39.2
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	228.38	157.57	0.797	0.994	29.4
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3.92	2.57	0.996	1.000	49.6
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	5.30	3.51	0.995	1.000	49.4
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	14.78	9.77	0.986	1.000	48.7
Razorbill	Flamborough and Filey Coast	North Sea Consented developer approach	41.90	12.10	0.968	0.999	45.7
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	102.78	14.79	0.930	0.998	41.1
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	203.34	43.94	0.861	0.996	32.0
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3.00	2.17	0.997	1.000	49.5
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	3.78	2.79	0.996	1.000	49.4
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	11.04	8.04	0.989	1.000	48.4

Table 3.4: 2077 projection – summary of specific mortality scenarios, selected counterfactuals

Species	SPA	Scenario	Estimated adult mortality	Estimated immature mortality	Counterfactual Population Size -median	Counterfactual of population growth rate - median	Unimpacted centile at impacted 50th centile (median)
Gannet	Forth Islands SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	583.34	17.75	0.864	0.997	33.0
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	610.70	18.93	0.858	0.997	32.3
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	822.44	28.12	0.813	0.996	26.9
		North Sea Consented developer approach	800.34	167.85	0.798	0.996	25.2
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	827.70	174.03	0.792	0.995	24.5
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	1112.84	239.72	0.730	0.994	17.4
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	154.14	5.55	0.962	0.999	45.3
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	183.04	6.73	0.955	0.999	44.5
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	243.24	10.82	0.940	0.999	42.6
Gannet	Flamborough and Filey Coast	North Sea As-built: developer approach	301.88	35.78	0.646	0.991	8.4
		North Sea As built Approach a	302.03	35.90	0.646	0.991	8.4
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	438.26	48.92	0.531	0.988	2.5
		North Sea Consented developer approach	351.48	36.38	0.604	0.990	5.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	351.99	36.51	0.603	0.990	5.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	487.86	49.52	0.497	0.986	1.4
Gannet	North Rona and Sula Sgeir	North Sea Consented developer approach	4.25	3.10	0.989	1.000	48.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	4.33	3.10	0.989	1.000	48.7
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	6.08	4.41	0.985	1.000	48.3
Gannet	Fair Isle	North Sea Consented developer approach	10.57	8.42	0.941	0.999	42.1
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	10.66	8.42	0.941	0.999	42.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	14.42	11.55	0.920	0.998	39.2
Gannet	Noss	North Sea Consented developer approach	35.08	28.51	0.930	0.999	40.7
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	35.37	27.72	0.930	0.999	40.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	48.68	37.93	0.905	0.998	37.6
Gannet	Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field	North Sea Consented developer approach	75.30	60.07	0.918	0.998	40.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	76.81	60.11	0.917	0.998	39.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	104.20	82.26	0.889	0.998	36.3
Guillemot	Forth Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	82.82	80.12	0.869	0.997	32.5
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	200.88	200.60	0.708	0.993	13.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	398.91	392.06	0.505	0.987	1.3
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	37.42	36.62	0.938	0.999	41.7
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	91.58	91.20	0.855	0.997	30.3
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	180.51	178.26	0.734	0.994	15.8
Guillemot	St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	131.01	132.85	0.880	0.998	33.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	371.05	370.16	0.698	0.993	12.2
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	695.77	688.70	0.510	0.987	1.7
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	110.84	109.62	0.901	0.998	36.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	310.95	311.66	0.740	0.994	16.6
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	576.12	53.96	0.571	0.989	4.3
Guillemot	Fowlsheugh SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	154.10	149.42	0.906	0.998	37.6
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	430.29	423.20	0.757	0.995	18.5
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	800.04	781.75	0.596	0.990	5.4
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	89.20	88.52	0.944	0.999	42.8
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	259.91	261.04	0.844	0.997	28.8
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	473.32	472.88	0.734	0.994	16.1
Guillemot	Farne Islands SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	36.92	40.21	0.975	1.000	46.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	79.84	88.67	0.946	0.999	42.8
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	167.20	183.90	0.891	0.998	34.7
Guillemot	Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	6.03	6.16	0.991	1.000	48.7
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	12.57	13.30	0.981	1.000	47.5
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	27.10	28.09	0.960	0.999	44.8
		North Sea Consented developer approach	8.53	8.06	0.988	1.000	48.2
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	18.77	17.91	0.973	0.999	46.6
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	39.30	37.09	0.944	0.999	42.5
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	4.93	4.76	0.993	1.000	48.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	9.57	9.40	0.986	1.000	47.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	21.40	20.79	0.969	0.999	46.1
Guillemot	Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads	North Sea Consented developer approach	10.36	8.33	0.982	1.000	47.2
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	22.34	17.61	0.962	0.999	44.5
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	47.55	37.57	0.921	0.998	37.3
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	2.47	2.19	0.993	1.000	48.8
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	5.19	4.7	0.987	1.000	47.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	11.10	9.97	0.970	0.999	45.7
Herring gull	Forth Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	15.17	4.04	0.956	0.999	44.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach	22.10	5.30	0.938	0.999	42.8
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	10.17	1.74	0.972	0.999	46.7
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	17.10	3.00	0.953	0.999	44.5
Herring gull	Fowlsheugh SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	1.11	0.50	0.970	0.999	46.3
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach	1.52	0.58	0.961	0.999	45.3
		North Sea Consented developer approach	2.91	0.50	0.934	0.999	42.1
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach	3.32	0.58	0.925	0.998	41.0
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.61	0.10	0.986	1.000	48.2
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	1.02	0.18	0.976	1.000	46.9
Herring gull	St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	0.74	0.27	0.956	0.999	44.3
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach	1.06	0.33	0.940	0.999	42.1
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.44	0.07	0.977	1.000	47.0
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	0.76	0.13	0.960	0.999	44.9
Herring gull	Farne Islands SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.52	0.09	0.989	1.000	48.7
Herring gull	Farne Islands SPA	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	0.87	0.15	0.981	1.000	47.8
Kittiwake	Forth Islands SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	56.22	4.23	0.772	0.995	32.1
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	58.21	4.52	0.765	0.995	31.6
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	77.22	6.44	0.700	0.993	25.9
		North Sea Consented developer approach	64.82	8.33	0.734	0.994	28.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	68.21	9.42	0.721	0.994	28.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	89.92	12.54	0.650	0.992	22.0
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	28.82	1.63	0.877	0.997	40.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	36.21	2.32	0.848	0.997	38.7
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	43.32	2.94	0.820	0.996	36.3
Kittiwake	Fowlsheugh SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	141.70	10.80	0.810	0.996	33.6
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	155.35	12.51	0.793	0.995	32.3
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	197.25	16.94	0.744	0.994	27.4
		North Sea Consented developer approach	183.60	24.10	0.754	0.994	28.2
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	200.35	27.91	0.733	0.994	26.3
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	252.35	36.24	0.676	0.992	21.2
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	87.03	4.90	0.880	0.998	39.8
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	109.05	7.01	0.851	0.997	37.4
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	130.45	8.84	0.825	0.996	35.0
Kittiwake	St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	266.61	10.50	0.370	0.981	3.8
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	323.33	12.94	0.299	0.977	1.6
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	388.73	16.15	0.234	0.972	0.4
		North Sea Consented developer approach	275.71	15.00	0.354	0.980	3.3
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	333.83	18.24	0.284	0.976	1.2
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	402.23	22.95	0.218	0.971	0.4
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	253.21	9.40	0.389	0.982	4.7
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	312.63	11.94	0.312	0.977	1.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	371.33	14.35	0.250	0.973	0.6
Kittiwake	Farne Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	33.18	6.60	0.852	0.997	37.5
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	41.13	8.21	0.820	0.996	34.5
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	50.69	10.62	0.782	0.995	31.3
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	23.18	1.50	0.902	0.998	42.0
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	29.33	2.21	0.877	0.997	39.5
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	35.19	2.82	0.854	0.997	37.6
Kittiwake	Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	14.16	4.65	0.970	0.999	47.7
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	20.77	7.24	0.955	0.999	46.8
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	27.51	10.18	0.941	0.999	45.9
		North Sea As-built: developer approach	63.36	19.25	0.873	0.997	40.7
		North Sea As built Approach a	75.37	24.54	0.849	0.997	39.0
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	93.11	32.78	0.814	0.996	36.2
		North Sea Consented developer approach	68.16	21.75	0.863	0.997	40.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	80.17	27.04	0.839	0.997	38.2
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	97.91	35.28	0.805	0.996	35.6
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	11.06	2.95	0.977	1.000	48.3
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	16.47	4.94	0.965	0.999	47.4
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	21.01	6.58	0.956	0.999	46.8
Kittiwake	Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads	North Sea As-built: developer approach	60.06	23.44	0.883	0.998	38.0
		North Sea As built Approach a	69.77	29.39	0.864	0.997	36.2
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	96.82	39.79	0.817	0.996	31.3
		North Sea Consented developer approach	65.66	26.44	0.873	0.997	37.1
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	75.47	32.39	0.853	0.997	35.1
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	102.52	42.79	0.807	0.996	30.1
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	9.01	3.34	0.982	1.000	48.1
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	14.07	5.69	0.971	0.999	47.1
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	18.42	7.59	0.962	0.999	46.2
Kittiwake	East Caithness cliffs	North Sea As-built: developer approach	276.52	74.45	0.791	0.995	34.8
		North Sea As built Approach a	277.61	88.37	0.785	0.995	34.2
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	395.62	120.80	0.710	0.993	28.4
		North Sea Consented developer approach	291.92	82.55	0.780	0.995	33.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	293.11	96.47	0.774	0.995	33.4
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	411.12	128.90	0.700	0.993	27.4
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	18.39	8.85	0.983	1.000	48.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	30.71	15.17	0.971	0.999	48.0
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	41.12	20.30	0.962	0.999	47.2
Kittiwake	North Caithness Cliffs SPA	North Sea As-built: developer approach	35.94	15.62	0.801	0.996	36.4
		North Sea As built Approach a	43.42	19.81	0.763	0.995	33.6
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	58.71	26.59	0.693	0.993	27.9
		North Sea Consented developer approach	39.84	17.62	0.781	0.995	34.7
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	47.22	21.81	0.744	0.994	31.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	62.51	28.59	0.677	0.992	26.7
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	4.54	2.22	0.972	0.999	48.1
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	7.62	3.81	0.953	0.999	47.0
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	10.21	5.09	0.937	0.999	45.9
Kittiwake	Coquet island	North Sea Consented developer approach	1.70	0.70	0.924	0.998	42.4
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	2.09	0.80	0.908	0.998	41.1
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	2.74	1.10	0.880	0.997	37.9
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.30	0.00	0.989	1.000	48.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.49	0.00	0.982	1.000	48.3
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.64	0.00	0.977	1.000	47.8
Kittiwake	Flamborough and Filey Coast	North Sea As-built: developer approach	410.67	61.14	0.832	0.996	37.0
		North Sea As built Approach a	441.91	76.92	0.818	0.996	35.9
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	491.30	101.50	0.796	0.996	33.9
		North Sea Consented developer approach	445.57	70.34	0.818	0.996	35.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	476.81	86.02	0.804	0.996	34.5
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	526.17	110.58	0.783	0.995	32.9
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	17.05	8.24	0.991	1.000	49.1
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	28.51	14.12	0.985	1.000	48.7
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	38.17	18.88	0.979	1.000	48.2
Kittiwake	West Westray	North Sea As-built: developer approach	35.60	17.94	0.670	0.992	37.0
		North Sea As built Approach a	45.84	22.92	0.596	0.990	33.1
		North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	61.72	30.85	0.494	0.986	27.6
		North Sea Consented developer approach	40.20	20.34	0.635	0.991	35.1
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	50.54	25.32	0.564	0.989	31.4
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	66.32	33.25	0.467	0.985	25.9
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	5.10	2.64	0.946	0.999	47.8
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	9.04	4.52	0.906	0.998	46.5
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	12.12	6.05	0.875	0.997	45.4
Lesser Black-backed gull	Forth Islands SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	1.97	0.30	0.982	1.000	47.4
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	2.76	0.42	0.975	1.000	46.2
Lesser Black-backed gull	Farne Islands SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.51	0.08	0.986	1.000	48.2
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	0.72	0.11	0.981	1.000	47.5
Lesser Black-backed gull	Coquet SPA	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.01	0.00	0.996	1.000	49.5
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	0.01	0.00	0.994	1.000	49.3
Puffin	Forth Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	44.31	51.11	0.970	0.999	47.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	159.39	183.80	0.897	0.998	41.3
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	265.10	306.16	0.834	0.996	35.8
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	5.11	6.01	0.996	1.000	49.6
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	18.19	21.44	0.988	1.000	49.1
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	29.80	35.56	0.980	1.000	48.6
Puffin	Farne Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	4.82	6.69	0.997	1.000	49.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	17.31	23.75	0.988	1.000	49.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	28.80	39.44	0.980	1.000	48.4
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3.62	4.89	0.998	1.000	49.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	12.91	17.45	0.991	1.000	49.3
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	21.40	28.94	0.985	1.000	48.8
Puffin	North Caithness Cliffs SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	8.23	8.51	0.838	0.997	40.4
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	29.48	30.67	0.528	0.988	21.1
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	49.15	51.12	0.344	0.979	8.7
Razorbill	Forth Islands SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	13.56	11.86	0.905	0.998	39.5
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	44.82	40.11	0.716	0.993	18.4
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	77.28	69.01	0.562	0.989	5.9
		North Sea Consented developer approach	17.26	14.06	0.884	0.998	37.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	49.32	42.61	0.696	0.993	16.4
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	90.58	76.71	0.516	0.987	3.8
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3.56	3.06	0.974	0.999	47.2
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	10.62	9.51	0.924	0.998	41.4
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	18.98	17.31	0.868	0.997	35.3
Razorbill	St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	3.22	3.05	0.955	0.999	45.2
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	9.69	9.70	0.867	0.997	34.3
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	17.32	16.91	0.777	0.995	23.9
		North Sea Consented developer approach	4.92	4.05	0.935	0.999	42.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	11.79	10.90	0.846	0.997	31.4
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	23.52	20.51	0.721	0.994	18.3
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	2.62	2.65	0.962	0.999	46.1
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	8.29	8.70	0.883	0.998	36.4
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	14.42	14.91	0.807	0.996	27.0
Razorbill	Fowlsheugh SPA	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	15.64	12.85	0.949	0.999	45.4
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	50.93	42.76	0.841	0.997	35.8
		Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	88.25	73.38	0.741	0.994	27.0
		North Sea Consented developer approach	20.74	15.75	0.934	0.999	44.2
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	57.23	46.46	0.825	0.996	34.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	106.70	84.18	0.701	0.993	22.9
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	4.34	3.25	0.986	1.000	48.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	12.73	9.76	0.959	0.999	46.2
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	22.95	17.38	0.928	0.999	43.6
Razorbill	Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads	North Sea Consented developer approach	4.05	2.50	0.964	0.999	46.7
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	6.06	3.95	0.946	0.999	45.3
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	15.65	9.79	0.868	0.997	38.2
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.75	0.52	0.993	1.000	49.5
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	1.46	1.05	0.986	1.000	48.9
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	3.25	2.29	0.970	0.999	47.2
Razorbill	Farne Islands SPA	North Sea Consented developer approach	0.50	0.20	0.964	0.999	45.8
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.62	0.50	0.944	0.999	43.6
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	1.76	1.20	0.858	0.997	34.5
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.10	0.08	0.991	1.000	49.0
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.22	0.20	0.979	1.000	47.5
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.46	0.40	0.957	0.999	45.0
Razorbill	East Caithness cliffs	North Sea Consented developer approach	48.02	32.17	0.935	0.999	44.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	113.00	80.21	0.852	0.997	38.0
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	228.38	157.57	0.725	0.994	26.5
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3.92	2.57	0.995	1.000	49.6
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	5.30	3.51	0.993	1.000	49.4
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	14.78	9.77	0.980	1.000	48.1
Razorbill	Flamborough and Filey Coast	North Sea Consented developer approach	41.90	12.10	0.955	0.999	45.3
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	102.78	14.79	0.903	0.998	38.9
		North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	203.34	43.94	0.809	0.996	27.8
		(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3.00	2.17	0.996	1.000	49.6
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	3.78	2.79	0.995	1.000	49.5
		(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	11.04	8.04	0.985	1.000	48.3

Table 3.5: 2062 projection – summary of specific mortality scenarios for regions for 7 species. Note matched-pair runs are not conducted when combining regional PVAs – counterfactuals for population growth may be marginally larger than 1 for small impacts due to simulation variability. Similarly 50th centile figures may exceed 50.

Species	Scenario	Unimpacted median population size	Impacted median population size	Counterfactual of population growth rate - median	Counterfactual Population Size - median	Unimpacted centile at impacted 50th centile (median)
Gannet	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	1986443	1964645	1.000	0.987	47.2
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	1986443	1960712	1.000	0.984	46.6
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	1986443	1948624	0.999	0.980	45.2
	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	1986443	1886754	0.999	0.952	37.2
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	1986443	1883882	0.998	0.946	36.9
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	1986443	1846353	0.998	0.927	32.1
	North Sea Consented developer approach	1986443	1729021	0.996	0.867	18.4
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	1986443	1716996	0.996	0.866	17.1
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	1986443	1638870	0.995	0.821	10.3
	North Sea As-built: developer approach	1986443	1920713	0.999	0.967	41.6
	North Sea As built Approach a	1986443	1919283	0.999	0.968	41.3
	North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	1986443	1894512	0.999	0.956	38.1
Guillemot	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	1177118	1144276	0.999	0.974	40.1
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	1177118	1085147	0.998	0.923	24.1
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	1177118	1008205	0.996	0.855	8.7
	North Sea Consented developer approach	1177118	1131946	0.999	0.962	36.6
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	1177118	1060139	0.997	0.902	18.1
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	1177118	973219	0.995	0.830	4.5
	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	1177118	1142467	0.999	0.971	39.6
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	1177118	1081981	0.998	0.918	23.2
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	1177118	1007158	0.996	0.856	8.6
Herring gull	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	158405	155612	1.000	0.981	47.1
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	158405	153719	0.999	0.968	44.7
	North Sea Consented developer approach	158405	153859	0.999	0.970	44.9
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach	158405	151634	0.999	0.957	42.3
	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	158405	154986	0.999	0.980	46.2
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach	158405	153688	0.999	0.972	44.7
Kittiwake	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	216118	212612	0.999	0.983	47.3
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	216118	209560	0.999	0.966	44.7
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	216118	207506	0.999	0.961	43.1
	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	216118	210200	0.999	0.970	45.3
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	216118	207876	0.999	0.963	43.4
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	216118	206352	0.999	0.960	42.2
	North Sea Consented developer approach	216118	185008	0.996	0.856	24.3
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	216118	182965	0.995	0.846	22.5
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	216118	174636	0.994	0.808	17.2
	North Sea As-built: developer approach	216118	193188	0.997	0.893	31.2
	North Sea As built Approach a	216118	191433	0.997	0.882	29.8
	North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	216118	183277	0.995	0.846	22.7
Lesser Black-backed gull	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	25959	25704	1.000	0.991	47.8
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	25959	25507	0.999	0.983	46.0
Puffin	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	756984	752063	1.000	0.995	49.1
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	756984	749107	1.000	0.996	48.7
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	756984	748853	1.000	0.988	48.7
	North Sea Consented developer approach	756984	749618	1.000	0.986	48.8
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	756984	735327	0.999	0.968	46.1
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	756984	717711	0.998	0.947	42.8
Razorbill	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	366241	363643	1.000	0.997	48.6
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	366241	360039	1.000	0.982	46.4
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	366241	355002	0.999	0.966	43.7
	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	366241	362407	1.000	0.989	47.8
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	366241	349935	0.999	0.956	40.4
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	366241	341267	0.998	0.930	35.1
	North Sea Consented developer approach	366241	350751	0.999	0.959	40.9
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	366241	330434	0.997	0.903	28.7
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	366241	300038	0.994	0.820	14.0

Table 3.6: 2077 projection – summary of specific mortality scenarios for regions for 7 species. Note matched-pair runs are not conducted when combining regional PVAs – counterfactuals for population growth may be marginally larger than 1 for small impacts due to simulation variability. Similarly, 50th centile figures may exceed 50.

Species	Scenario	Unimpacted median population size	Impacted median population size	Counterfactual of population growth rate - median	Counterfactual Population Size - median	Unimpacted centile at impacted 50th centile (median)
Gannet	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	3696467	3612434	1.000	0.978	44.8
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	3696467	3609880	0.999	0.974	44.7
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	3696467	3582963	0.999	0.970	43.0
	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	3696467	3422554	0.999	0.926	33.8
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	3696467	3412813	0.999	0.929	33.3
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	3696467	3327953	0.998	0.897	28.3
	North Sea Consented developer approach	3696467	3020686	0.996	0.817	12.8
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	3696467	3009107	0.996	0.815	12.4
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	3696467	2806166	0.995	0.757	5.6
	North Sea As-built: developer approach	3696467	3512550	0.999	0.953	39.1
	North Sea As built Approach a	3696467	3511541	0.999	0.953	39.0
	North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	3696467	3444903	0.999	0.937	35.0
Guillemot	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	1816712	1742204	0.999	0.957	37.5
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	1816712	1623758	0.998	0.893	19.8
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	1816712	1471010	0.996	0.809	5.6
	North Sea Consented developer approach	1816712	1724909	0.999	0.951	34.7
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	1816712	1584525	0.997	0.874	14.8
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	1816712	1426631	0.995	0.789	3.3
	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	1816712	1735772	0.999	0.955	36.5
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	1816712	1622214	0.998	0.891	19.6
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	1816712	1476651	0.996	0.811	5.9
Herring gull	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	364687	357107	1.000	0.974	46.7
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	364687	351727	0.999	0.957	44.5
	North Sea Consented developer approach	364687	351277	0.999	0.963	44.2
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach	364687	346766	0.999	0.952	41.9
	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	364687	356025	1.000	0.973	46.3
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach	364687	351792	0.999	0.962	44.5
Kittiwake	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	221068	216027	1.000	0.976	46.5
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	221068	212541	0.999	0.964	44.1
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	221068	210762	0.999	0.957	42.9
	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	221068	215722	1.000	0.977	46.3
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	221068	211539	0.999	0.956	43.5
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	221068	210895	0.999	0.952	43.0
	North Sea Consented developer approach	221068	179532	0.996	0.814	21.6
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	221068	176447	0.995	0.797	19.8
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	221068	165858	0.994	0.745	13.3
	North Sea As-built: developer approach	221068	188411	0.997	0.853	27.2
	North Sea As built Approach a	221068	185559	0.997	0.843	25.4
	North Sea As-built: scoping approach b	221068	174456	0.995	0.786	18.6
Lesser Black-backed gull	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	45829	45016	1.000	0.983	46.5
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach	45829	44800	1.000	0.977	45.5
Puffin	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	1284129	1280098	1.000	1.005	49.6
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	1284129	1263051	1.000	0.988	48.2
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	1284129	1266029	1.000	0.992	48.4
	North Sea Consented developer approach	1284129	1274867	1.000	0.996	49.2
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	1284129	1232174	0.999	0.964	45.4
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	1284129	1206944	0.999	0.950	43.2
Razorbill	(1) Project Alone: developer approach	577073	572792	1.000	0.990	48.7
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	577073	565226	1.000	0.982	46.3
	(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	577073	547779	0.999	0.953	40.8
	Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	577073	565360	1.000	0.978	46.4
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	577073	550662	0.999	0.955	41.6
	Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	577073	529784	0.998	0.919	34.9
	North Sea Consented developer approach	577073	546524	0.999	0.949	40.3
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	577073	502715	0.997	0.871	26.9
	North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	577073	441838	0.995	0.760	10.3

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