3.32 Puffin - Forth Islands SPA

Figure 3.121:
Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median

Figure 3.121:  Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median

Figure 3.122:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.122:  Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.123:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.123:  The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.124:
The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years)

Figure 3.124:  The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years)


                                                

Table 3.158: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates

Projection year

Additional adult mortalities

Median growth rates

2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates

97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates

Median counterfactual of population size

Median counterfactual of growth rates

Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted

2062

0

1.026

1.001

1.047

 

 

 

2062

50

1.025

1.000

1.046

0.977

0.999

47.7

2062

100

1.024

1.000

1.046

0.954

0.999

45.6

2062

150

1.024

0.999

1.045

0.932

0.998

43.5

2062

200

1.023

0.998

1.044

0.910

0.997

41.7

2062

250

1.022

0.998

1.043

0.888

0.997

39.6

2062

300

1.022

0.997

1.043

0.868

0.996

37.7

2062

350

1.021

0.996

1.042

0.847

0.995

35.5

2062

400

1.020

0.996

1.041

0.827

0.995

33.6

2062

450

1.020

0.995

1.041

0.808

0.994

31.2

2062

500

1.019

0.994

1.040

0.789

0.993

29.7

2062

550

1.018

0.994

1.039

0.770

0.993

28.0

2062

600

1.018

0.993

1.039

0.752

0.992

26.4

2077

0

1.025

1.004

1.044

 

 

 

2077

50

1.025

1.004

1.043

0.967

0.999

47.6

2077

100

1.024

1.003

1.042

0.935

0.999

44.9

2077

150

1.023

1.002

1.042

0.904

0.998

42.0

2077

200

1.023

1.002

1.041

0.875

0.997

39.5

2077

250

1.022

1.001

1.040

0.846

0.997

37.1

2077

300

1.021

1.000

1.040

0.818

0.996

34.5

2077

350

1.021

1.000

1.039

0.791

0.995

31.9

2077

400

1.020

0.999

1.038

0.765

0.995

29.7

2077

450

1.019

0.998

1.038

0.739

0.994

27.5

2077

500

1.019

0.998

1.037

0.715

0.993

25.3

2077

550

1.018

0.997

1.036

0.691

0.993

23.6

2077

600

1.017

0.996

1.035

0.668

0.992

21.7


Table 3.159: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. popn size (2062)

Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%

Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%

Baseline

0.07

0.0000

0.00

243954.6

96522.5

542889.0

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.07

44.3057

51.11

238782.7

94423.3

531535.1

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.07

159.3908

183.80

225846.6

89176.8

503131.3

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.07

265.0972

306.16

214573.5

84600.8

478373.4

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.07

5.1057

6.01

243347.8

96276.3

541557.6

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.07

18.1908

21.44

241798.7

95647.5

538155.2

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.07

29.7972

35.56

240414.1

95084.5

535113.1

 

Table 3.160: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. popn size (2077)

Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%

Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%

Baseline

0.07

0.0000

0.00

351192.1

121139.3

897183.1

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.07

44.3057

51.11

340670.9

117447.6

870888.2

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.07

159.3908

183.80

314883.2

108373.5

806291.0

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.07

265.0972

306.16

292804.1

100658.1

751027.3

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.07

5.1057

6.01

349952.6

120704.6

894058.2

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.07

18.1908

21.44

346793.4

119595.7

886144.3

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.07

29.7972

35.56

343975.0

118608.8

879135.5

 

Table 3.161: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR  lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Ann. med. GR (2062)

Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI

Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI

Ann. med. GR (2077)

Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI

Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI

Baseline

0.07

0.0000

0.00

1.026

1.001

1.047

1.025

1.004

1.044

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.07

44.3057

51.11

1.025

1.000

1.046

1.025

1.004

1.043

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.07

159.3908

183.80

1.024

0.999

1.045

1.023

1.002

1.041

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.07

265.0972

306.16

1.022

0.997

1.043

1.022

1.001

1.040

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.07

5.1057

6.01

1.026

1.001

1.047

1.025

1.004

1.044

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.07

18.1908

21.44

1.026

1.001

1.047

1.025

1.004

1.043

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.07

29.7972

35.56

1.025

1.001

1.046

1.025

1.004

1.043


Table 3.162: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)

Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)

Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)

Med. cnterfact GR (2077)

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.07

44.3057

51.11

0.979

0.970

0.999

0.999

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.07

159.3908

183.80

0.926

0.897

0.998

0.998

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.07

265.0972

306.16

0.880

0.834

0.996

0.996

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.07

5.1057

6.01

0.998

0.996

1.000

1.000

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.07

18.1908

21.44

0.991

0.988

1.000

1.000

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.07

29.7972

35.56

0.986

0.980

1.000

1.000