3.11 Guillemot - Farne Islands SPA

Figure 3.37:
Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.37:  Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.38:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.38:  Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.39:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.39:  The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.40:
The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.40:  The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).


Table 3.52: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates.

Projection year

Additional adult mortalities

Median growth rates

2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates

97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates

Median counterfactual of population size

Median counterfactual of growth rates

Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted

2062

0

1.035

1.021

1.047

 

 

 

2062

25

1.035

1.021

1.047

0.988

1.000

48.2

2062

50

1.034

1.020

1.047

0.976

0.999

46.4

2062

75

1.034

1.020

1.046

0.965

0.999

44.3

2062

100

1.034

1.020

1.046

0.953

0.999

42.5

2062

125

1.033

1.019

1.046

0.942

0.998

40.7

2062

150

1.033

1.019

1.045

0.931

0.998

38.6

2062

175

1.033

1.019

1.045

0.920

0.998

36.7

2062

200

1.032

1.018

1.045

0.909

0.997

34.6

2062

225

1.032

1.018

1.044

0.898

0.997

33.1

2062

250

1.031

1.018

1.044

0.888

0.997

31.6

2062

275

1.031

1.017

1.044

0.877

0.996

30.2

2062

300

1.031

1.017

1.043

0.867

0.996

28.8

2062

325

1.030

1.017

1.043

0.856

0.996

27.3

2062

350

1.030

1.016

1.043

0.846

0.995

25.7

2062

375

1.030

1.016

1.042

0.836

0.995

24.4

2062

400

1.029

1.016

1.042

0.826

0.995

23.1

2077

0

1.035

1.023

1.045

 

 

 

2077

25

1.034

1.023

1.045

0.983

1.000

48.1

2077

50

1.034

1.023

1.045

0.967

0.999

45.9

2077

75

1.034

1.022

1.044

0.951

0.999

43.4

2077

100

1.033

1.022

1.044

0.935

0.999

40.8

2077

125

1.033

1.022

1.044

0.919

0.998

38.4

2077

150

1.033

1.021

1.043

0.904

0.998

36.2

2077

175

1.032

1.021

1.043

0.888

0.998

34.3

2077

200

1.032

1.021

1.043

0.873

0.997

32.0

2077

225

1.032

1.020

1.042

0.859

0.997

29.8

2077

250

1.031

1.020

1.042

0.844

0.997

27.9

2077

275

1.031

1.020

1.042

0.830

0.996

25.9

2077

300

1.031

1.019

1.041

0.816

0.996

24.2

2077

325

1.030

1.019

1.041

0.803

0.996

22.5

2077

350

1.030

1.019

1.041

0.789

0.995

21.0

2077

375

1.030

1.018

1.040

0.776

0.995

19.2

2077

400

1.029

1.018

1.040

0.763

0.995

17.6


Table 3.53: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. popn size (2062)

Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%

Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%

Baseline

0.07

0.0000

0.00

372688.9

220896.8

595800.8

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.07

36.9170

40.21

366106.8

216909.3

585470.6

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.07

79.8353

88.67

358473.2

212289.0

573518.9

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.07

167.20

183.90

343474.4

203213.2

549958.9

 

Table 3.54: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. popn size (2077)

Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%

Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%

Baseline

0.07

0.0000

0.00

620411.9

346130.5

1096506.5

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.07

36.9170

40.21

604955.1

337404.9

1069383.7

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.07

79.8353

88.67

587200.9

327374.0

1038311.1

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.07

167.20

183.90

552744.7

307902.6

977806.6


Table 3.55: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR  lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Ann. med. GR (2062)

Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI

Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI

Ann. med. GR (2077)

Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI

Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI

Baseline

0.07

0.0000

0.00

1.035

1.021

1.047

1.035

1.023

1.045

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.07

36.9170

40.21

1.034

1.020

1.047

1.034

1.023

1.045

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.07

79.8353

88.67

1.034

1.020

1.046

1.034

1.022

1.044

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.07

167.20

183.90

1.033

1.019

1.045

1.032

1.021

1.043

 

Table 3.56: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)

Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)

Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)

Med. cnterfact GR (2077)

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.07

36.9170

40.21

0.982

0.975

1.000

1.000

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.07

79.8353

88.67

0.962

0.946

0.999

0.999

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.07

167.20

183.90

0.922

0.891

0.998

0.998