3.35 Razorbill - Forth Islands SPA

Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.133: Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median

Figure 3.134:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.134: Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.135:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

Figure 3.135: The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points)

The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.136: The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years)

Table 3.173: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates

Projection year	Additional adult mortalities	Median growth rates	2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	Median counterfactual of population size	Median counterfactual of growth rates	Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted
2062	0	1.029	1.011	1.044
2062	25	1.025	1.008	1.040	0.879	0.996	34.6
2062	50	1.021	1.004	1.036	0.773	0.993	21.6
2062	75	1.018	1.000	1.033	0.679	0.989	11.9
2062	100	1.014	0.997	1.029	0.596	0.986	6.1
2062	125	1.010	0.993	1.025	0.523	0.982	2.7
2062	150	1.007	0.989	1.022	0.459	0.979	1.1
2062	175	1.003	0.986	1.018	0.402	0.975	0.4
2062	200	0.999	0.982	1.014	0.353	0.971	0.1
2062	225	0.996	0.978	1.011	0.309	0.968	0.1
2062	250	0.992	0.975	1.007	0.270	0.964	0.0
2062	275	0.988	0.971	1.003	0.237	0.961	0.0
2062	300	0.985	0.967	1.000	0.207	0.957	0.0
2062	325	0.981	0.964	0.996	0.181	0.954	0.0
2062	350	0.977	0.960	0.992	0.158	0.950	0.0
2062	375	0.973	0.956	0.989	0.138	0.946	0.0
2062	400	0.970	0.953	0.985	0.120	0.943	0.0
2077	0	1.029	1.015	1.041
2077	25	1.025	1.011	1.037	0.833	0.996	31.2
2077	50	1.021	1.007	1.034	0.694	0.993	16.1
2077	75	1.017	1.004	1.030	0.577	0.989	6.9
2077	100	1.014	1.000	1.026	0.480	0.986	2.6
2077	125	1.010	0.996	1.023	0.399	0.982	0.9
2077	150	1.006	0.993	1.019	0.331	0.979	0.2
2077	175	1.003	0.989	1.015	0.275	0.975	0.1
2077	200	0.999	0.985	1.012	0.228	0.971	0.0
2077	225	0.995	0.982	1.008	0.189	0.968	0.0
2077	250	0.992	0.978	1.004	0.157	0.964	0.0
2077	275	0.988	0.974	1.001	0.130	0.961	0.0
2077	300	0.984	0.971	0.997	0.107	0.957	0.0
2077	325	0.981	0.967	0.993	0.089	0.954	0.0
2077	350	0.977	0.963	0.990	0.073	0.950	0.0
2077	375	0.973	0.960	0.986	0.060	0.946	0.0
2077	400	0.970	0.956	0.982	0.050	0.943	0.0

Table 3.174: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	28645.4	14779.7	51527.5
Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	0.07	13.5600	11.86	26690.0	13766.0	48091.3
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	0.07	44.8206	40.11	22638.0	11653.5	40914.7
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	77.2813	69.01	19079.8	9795.0	34601.6
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	17.2600	14.06	26247.6	13534.0	47304.9
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	49.3206	42.61	22189.2	11419.4	40114.5
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	90.5813	76.71	17962.9	9214.7	32604.6
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	3.5600	3.06	28122.1	14508.1	50610.2
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	10.6206	9.51	27087.2	13972.1	48794.2
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	18.9813	17.31	25906.1	13356.2	46707.7

Table 3.175: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2077)	Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	43438.5	20553.2	86926.1
Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	0.07	13.5600	11.86	39307.6	18579.4	78744.3
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	0.07	44.8206	40.11	31117.9	14659.2	62494.7
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	77.2813	69.01	24404.4	11466.6	49167.5
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	17.2600	14.06	38390.4	18138.2	76913.2
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	49.3206	42.61	30250.2	14245.9	60755.7
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	90.5813	76.71	22412.5	10519.9	45154.5
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	3.5600	3.06	42323.6	20019.9	84717.7
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	10.6206	9.51	40134.6	18974.2	80398.0
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	18.9813	17.31	37682.3	17797.2	75500.2

Table 3.176: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Ann. med. GR (2062)	Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI	Ann. med. GR (2077)	Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	1.029	1.011	1.044	1.029	1.015	1.041
Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	0.07	13.5600	11.86	1.027	1.009	1.042	1.027	1.013	1.039
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	0.07	44.8206	40.11	1.022	1.005	1.037	1.022	1.008	1.034
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	77.2813	69.01	1.017	1.000	1.032	1.017	1.003	1.030
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	17.2600	14.06	1.026	1.009	1.041	1.026	1.012	1.039
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	49.3206	42.61	1.021	1.004	1.037	1.021	1.007	1.034
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	90.5813	76.71	1.015	0.998	1.031	1.015	1.001	1.028
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	3.5600	3.06	1.028	1.011	1.043	1.028	1.014	1.041
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	10.6206	9.51	1.027	1.010	1.042	1.027	1.013	1.039
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	18.9813	17.31	1.026	1.009	1.041	1.026	1.012	1.038

Table 3.177: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)	Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)	Med. cnterfact GR (2077)
Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	0.07	13.5600	11.86	0.932	0.905	0.998	0.998
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	0.07	44.8206	40.11	0.790	0.716	0.993	0.993
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	77.2813	69.01	0.666	0.562	0.989	0.989
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	17.2600	14.06	0.917	0.884	0.998	0.998
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	49.3206	42.61	0.775	0.696	0.993	0.993
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	90.5813	76.71	0.627	0.516	0.987	0.987
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	3.5600	3.06	0.982	0.974	0.999	0.999
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	10.6206	9.51	0.946	0.924	0.998	0.998
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	18.9813	17.31	0.905	0.868	0.997	0.997

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