3.19 Kittiwake - Fowlsheugh SPA

Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.69: Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.70:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.70: Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.71:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.71: The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.72: The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Table 3.92: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates.

Projection year	Additional adult mortalities	Median growth rates	2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	Median counterfactual of population size	Median counterfactual of growth rates	Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted
2062	0	0.985	0.963	1.006
2062	25	0.984	0.962	1.005	0.959	0.999	45.9
2062	50	0.983	0.961	1.004	0.919	0.998	41.6
2062	75	0.982	0.960	1.003	0.881	0.996	37.6
2062	100	0.981	0.959	1.002	0.844	0.995	34.2
2062	125	0.979	0.958	1.000	0.809	0.994	30.2
2062	150	0.978	0.956	0.999	0.775	0.993	27.3
2062	175	0.977	0.955	0.998	0.743	0.992	24.0
2062	200	0.976	0.954	0.997	0.712	0.991	21.5
2062	225	0.975	0.953	0.996	0.682	0.989	19.0
2062	250	0.974	0.952	0.995	0.654	0.988	16.7
2062	275	0.972	0.951	0.993	0.626	0.987	14.2
2062	300	0.971	0.950	0.992	0.600	0.986	12.4
2062	325	0.970	0.948	0.991	0.575	0.985	10.5
2062	350	0.969	0.947	0.990	0.551	0.984	8.8
2062	375	0.968	0.946	0.989	0.527	0.982	7.5
2062	400	0.967	0.945	0.988	0.505	0.981	6.3
2062	425	0.966	0.944	0.986	0.484	0.980	5.2
2062	450	0.964	0.943	0.985	0.463	0.979	4.2
2062	475	0.963	0.942	0.984	0.444	0.978	3.5
2062	500	0.962	0.940	0.983	0.425	0.977	2.8
2077	0	0.985	0.967	1.003
2077	25	0.984	0.966	1.001	0.942	0.999	44.6
2077	50	0.983	0.965	1.000	0.887	0.998	40.2
2077	75	0.982	0.964	0.999	0.835	0.996	35.9
2077	100	0.981	0.963	0.998	0.786	0.995	31.6
2077	125	0.979	0.961	0.997	0.740	0.994	27.0
2077	150	0.978	0.960	0.996	0.697	0.993	23.3
2077	175	0.977	0.959	0.994	0.656	0.992	19.4
2077	200	0.976	0.958	0.993	0.618	0.991	16.5
2077	225	0.975	0.957	0.992	0.581	0.989	13.7
2077	250	0.974	0.956	0.991	0.547	0.988	11.6
2077	275	0.972	0.955	0.990	0.515	0.987	9.4
2077	300	0.971	0.953	0.988	0.485	0.986	7.6
2077	325	0.970	0.952	0.987	0.456	0.985	6.4
2077	350	0.969	0.951	0.986	0.429	0.984	5.1
2077	375	0.968	0.950	0.985	0.404	0.982	4.2
2077	400	0.967	0.949	0.984	0.380	0.981	3.1
2077	425	0.965	0.948	0.983	0.357	0.980	2.6
2077	450	0.964	0.947	0.981	0.336	0.979	1.9
2077	475	0.963	0.945	0.980	0.316	0.978	1.5
2077	500	0.962	0.944	0.979	0.297	0.976	1.0

Table 3.93: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.00	13614.8	5563.4	31968.6
Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	0.1	141.704	10.80	11719.5	4769.0	27630.1
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	0.1	155.351	12.51	11548.0	4697.0	27228.7
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	197.246	16.94	11047.3	4484.8	26048.3
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	183.604	24.10	11139.1	4526.6	26267.8
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	200.351	27.91	10927.9	4437.8	25769.0
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	252.346	36.24	10313.2	4185.4	24338.0
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	87.03	4.90	12435.9	5068.1	29283.7
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	109.051	7.01	12143.4	4945.7	28607.7
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	130.446	8.84	11868.9	4831.4	27977.3

Table 3.94: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2077)	Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.00	10858.1	3857.8	28376.2
Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	0.1	141.704	10.80	8795.0	3119.9	23127.2
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	0.1	155.351	12.51	8611.4	3053.1	22663.2
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	197.246	16.94	8082.5	2863.2	21316.1
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	183.604	24.10	8181.7	2898.5	21548.7
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	200.351	27.91	7960.8	2818.9	20982.3
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	252.346	36.24	7335.2	2594.5	19384.0
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	87.03	4.90	9561.2	3392.9	25072.1
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	109.051	7.01	9245.1	3280.6	24268.1
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	130.446	8.84	8953.2	3176.2	23530.5

Table 3.95: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Ann. med. GR (2062)	Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI	Ann. med. GR (2077)	Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI
Baseline	0.1	0.000	0.00	0.985	0.963	1.006	0.985	0.967	1.003
Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	0.1	141.704	10.80	0.981	0.959	1.002	0.981	0.963	0.998
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	0.1	155.351	12.51	0.981	0.959	1.002	0.981	0.963	0.998
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	197.246	16.94	0.979	0.958	1.000	0.979	0.962	0.997
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	183.604	24.10	0.980	0.958	1.001	0.980	0.962	0.997
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	200.351	27.91	0.979	0.957	1.000	0.979	0.961	0.997
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	252.346	36.24	0.978	0.956	0.999	0.978	0.960	0.995
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	87.03	4.90	0.983	0.961	1.004	0.983	0.965	1.000
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	109.051	7.01	0.982	0.960	1.003	0.982	0.964	0.999
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	130.446	8.84	0.981	0.960	1.002	0.981	0.964	0.999

Table 3.96: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)	Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)	Med. cnterfact GR (2077)
Forth and Tay Consented developer approach	0.1	141.704	10.80	0.861	0.810	0.996	0.996
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a	0.1	155.351	12.51	0.849	0.793	0.995	0.995
Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	197.246	16.94	0.811	0.744	0.994	0.994
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.1	183.604	24.10	0.818	0.754	0.994	0.994
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.1	200.351	27.91	0.803	0.733	0.994	0.994
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.1	252.346	36.24	0.758	0.676	0.992	0.992
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.1	87.03	4.90	0.914	0.880	0.997	0.998
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.1	109.051	7.01	0.892	0.851	0.997	0.997
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.1	130.446	8.84	0.872	0.825	0.996	0.996

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