3.19 Kittiwake - Fowlsheugh SPA

Figure 3.69:
Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.69: Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.70:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.70:  Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.71:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.71:  The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.72:
The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.72:  The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).


Table 3.92: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates.

Projection year

Additional adult mortalities

Median growth rates

2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates

97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates

Median counterfactual of population size

Median counterfactual of growth rates

Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted

2062

0

0.985

0.963

1.006

 

 

 

2062

25

0.984

0.962

1.005

0.959

0.999

45.9

2062

50

0.983

0.961

1.004

0.919

0.998

41.6

2062

75

0.982

0.960

1.003

0.881

0.996

37.6

2062

100

0.981

0.959

1.002

0.844

0.995

34.2

2062

125

0.979

0.958

1.000

0.809

0.994

30.2

2062

150

0.978

0.956

0.999

0.775

0.993

27.3

2062

175

0.977

0.955

0.998

0.743

0.992

24.0

2062

200

0.976

0.954

0.997

0.712

0.991

21.5

2062

225

0.975

0.953

0.996

0.682

0.989

19.0

2062

250

0.974

0.952

0.995

0.654

0.988

16.7

2062

275

0.972

0.951

0.993

0.626

0.987

14.2

2062

300

0.971

0.950

0.992

0.600

0.986

12.4

2062

325

0.970

0.948

0.991

0.575

0.985

10.5

2062

350

0.969

0.947

0.990

0.551

0.984

8.8

2062

375

0.968

0.946

0.989

0.527

0.982

7.5

2062

400

0.967

0.945

0.988

0.505

0.981

6.3

2062

425

0.966

0.944

0.986

0.484

0.980

5.2

2062

450

0.964

0.943

0.985

0.463

0.979

4.2

2062

475

0.963

0.942

0.984

0.444

0.978

3.5

2062

500

0.962

0.940

0.983

0.425

0.977

2.8

2077

0

0.985

0.967

1.003

 

 

 

2077

25

0.984

0.966

1.001

0.942

0.999

44.6

2077

50

0.983

0.965

1.000

0.887

0.998

40.2

2077

75

0.982

0.964

0.999

0.835

0.996

35.9

2077

100

0.981

0.963

0.998

0.786

0.995

31.6

2077

125

0.979

0.961

0.997

0.740

0.994

27.0

2077

150

0.978

0.960

0.996

0.697

0.993

23.3

2077

175

0.977

0.959

0.994

0.656

0.992

19.4

2077

200

0.976

0.958

0.993

0.618

0.991

16.5

2077

225

0.975

0.957

0.992

0.581

0.989

13.7

2077

250

0.974

0.956

0.991

0.547

0.988

11.6

2077

275

0.972

0.955

0.990

0.515

0.987

9.4

2077

300

0.971

0.953

0.988

0.485

0.986

7.6

2077

325

0.970

0.952

0.987

0.456

0.985

6.4

2077

350

0.969

0.951

0.986

0.429

0.984

5.1

2077

375

0.968

0.950

0.985

0.404

0.982

4.2

2077

400

0.967

0.949

0.984

0.380

0.981

3.1

2077

425

0.965

0.948

0.983

0.357

0.980

2.6

2077

450

0.964

0.947

0.981

0.336

0.979

1.9

2077

475

0.963

0.945

0.980

0.316

0.978

1.5

2077

500

0.962

0.944

0.979

0.297

0.976

1.0


Table 3.93: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. popn size (2062)

Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%

Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%

Baseline

0.1

0.000

0.00

13614.8

5563.4

31968.6

Forth and Tay Consented developer approach

0.1

141.704

10.80

11719.5

4769.0

27630.1

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a

0.1

155.351

12.51

11548.0

4697.0

27228.7

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b

0.1

197.246

16.94

11047.3

4484.8

26048.3

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.1

183.604

24.10

11139.1

4526.6

26267.8

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.1

200.351

27.91

10927.9

4437.8

25769.0

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.1

252.346

36.24

10313.2

4185.4

24338.0

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.1

87.03

4.90

12435.9

5068.1

29283.7

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.1

109.051

7.01

12143.4

4945.7

28607.7

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.1

130.446

8.84

11868.9

4831.4

27977.3


Table 3.94: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. popn size (2077)

Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%

Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%

Baseline

0.1

0.000

0.00

10858.1

3857.8

28376.2

Forth and Tay Consented developer approach

0.1

141.704

10.80

8795.0

3119.9

23127.2

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a

0.1

155.351

12.51

8611.4

3053.1

22663.2

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b

0.1

197.246

16.94

8082.5

2863.2

21316.1

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.1

183.604

24.10

8181.7

2898.5

21548.7

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.1

200.351

27.91

7960.8

2818.9

20982.3

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.1

252.346

36.24

7335.2

2594.5

19384.0

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.1

87.03

4.90

9561.2

3392.9

25072.1

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.1

109.051

7.01

9245.1

3280.6

24268.1

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.1

130.446

8.84

8953.2

3176.2

23530.5


Table 3.95: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR  lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Ann. med. GR (2062)

Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI

Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI

Ann. med. GR (2077)

Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI

Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI

Baseline

0.1

0.000

0.00

0.985

0.963

1.006

0.985

0.967

1.003

Forth and Tay Consented developer approach

0.1

141.704

10.80

0.981

0.959

1.002

0.981

0.963

0.998

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a

0.1

155.351

12.51

0.981

0.959

1.002

0.981

0.963

0.998

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b

0.1

197.246

16.94

0.979

0.958

1.000

0.979

0.962

0.997

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.1

183.604

24.10

0.980

0.958

1.001

0.980

0.962

0.997

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.1

200.351

27.91

0.979

0.957

1.000

0.979

0.961

0.997

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.1

252.346

36.24

0.978

0.956

0.999

0.978

0.960

0.995

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.1

87.03

4.90

0.983

0.961

1.004

0.983

0.965

1.000

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.1

109.051

7.01

0.982

0.960

1.003

0.982

0.964

0.999

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.1

130.446

8.84

0.981

0.960

1.002

0.981

0.964

0.999


Table 3.96: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)

Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)

Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)

Med. cnterfact GR (2077)

Forth and Tay Consented developer approach

0.1

141.704

10.80

0.861

0.810

0.996

0.996

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a

0.1

155.351

12.51

0.849

0.793

0.995

0.995

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b

0.1

197.246

16.94

0.811

0.744

0.994

0.994

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.1

183.604

24.10

0.818

0.754

0.994

0.994

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.1

200.351

27.91

0.803

0.733

0.994

0.994

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.1

252.346

36.24

0.758

0.676

0.992

0.992

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.1

87.03

4.90

0.914

0.880

0.997

0.998

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.1

109.051

7.01

0.892

0.851

0.997

0.997

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.1

130.446

8.84

0.872

0.825

0.996

0.996