3.2 Gannet - Forth Islands SPA

Figure 3.1:
Figure Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.1:  Figure Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.2:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.2:  Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.3:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.3:  The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.4:
The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.4  The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).


Table 3.7: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates.

Projection year

Additional adult mortalities

Median growth rates

2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates

97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates

Median counterfactual of population size

Median counterfactual of growth rates

Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted

2062

0

1.042

1.027

1.054

 

 

 

2062

250

1.040

1.025

1.052

0.935

0.998

40.7

2062

500

1.038

1.023

1.050

0.874

0.996

32.1

2062

750

1.036

1.021

1.048

0.817

0.994

24.3

2062

1000

1.034

1.019

1.046

0.764

0.993

17.5

2062

1250

1.032

1.017

1.044

0.714

0.991

12.3

2062

1500

1.030

1.015

1.042

0.667

0.989

8.2

2062

1750

1.028

1.013

1.041

0.623

0.987

5.5

2062

2000

1.026

1.011

1.039

0.582

0.985

3.4

2062

2250

1.024

1.009

1.037

0.544

0.983

2.0

2077

0

1.041

1.029

1.052

 

 

 

2077

250

1.039

1.027

1.050

0.909

0.998

38.6

2077

500

1.037

1.025

1.048

0.826

0.996

28.7

2077

750

1.036

1.023

1.046

0.751

0.994

19.6

2077

1000

1.034

1.021

1.044

0.682

0.993

12.8

2077

1250

1.032

1.019

1.042

0.619

0.991

8.2

2077

1500

1.030

1.017

1.040

0.563

0.989

4.6

2077

1750

1.028

1.015

1.038

0.511

0.987

2.6

2077

2000

1.026

1.013

1.036

0.464

0.985

1.3

2077

2250

1.024

1.011

1.034

0.421

0.983

0.7


Table 3.8: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. popn size (2062)

Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%

Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%

Baseline

0.1

0.00

0.00

1057020.0

592306.0

1771243

Forth and Tay Consented developer approach

0.1

583.34

17.75

952367.0

533711.7

1596707

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a

0.1

610.70

18.93

947664.4

531088.5

1588915

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b

0.1

822.44

28.12

912148.0

511212.0

1529872

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.1

800.34

167.85

900856.7

504410.1

1511404

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.1

827.70

174.03

895867.8

501616.8

1503157

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.1

1112.84

239.72

845416.2

473321.9

1419587

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.1

154.14

5.55

1028217.7

576163.3

1723310

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.1

183.04

6.73

1023133.4

573331.1

1714865

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.1

245.17

10.82

1011584.4

566890.0

1695683


Table 3.9: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. popn size (2077)

Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%

Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%

Baseline

0.1

0.00

0.00

1946799

987991.4

3466133

Forth and Tay Consented developer approach

0.1

583.34

17.75

1680845

853159.0

2995590

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a

0.1

610.70

18.93

1669167

847258.0

2974995

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b

0.1

822.44

28.12

1582193

802935.0

2820552

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.1

800.34

167.85

1553444

787755.3

2771071

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.1

827.70

174.03

1541333

781610.6

2749721

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.1

1112.84

239.72

1420659

720170.0

2536132

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.1

154.14

5.55

1872658

950273.7

3334585

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.1

183.04

6.73

1859720

943698.7

3311649

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.1

245.17

10.82

1830410

928798.9

3259729


Table 3.10: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR  lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Ann. med. GR (2062)

Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI

Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI

Ann. med. GR (2077)

Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI

Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI

Baseline

0.1

0.00

0.00

1.042

1.027

1.054

1.041

1.029

1.052

Forth and Tay Consented developer approach

0.1

583.34

17.75

1.039

1.024

1.051

1.038

1.026

1.049

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a

0.1

610.70

18.93

1.039

1.024

1.051

1.038

1.026

1.049

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b

0.1

822.44

28.12

1.037

1.022

1.050

1.037

1.025

1.048

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.1

800.34

167.85

1.037

1.022

1.049

1.037

1.024

1.047

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.1

827.70

174.03

1.037

1.022

1.049

1.037

1.024

1.047

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.1

1112.84

239.72

1.035

1.020

1.048

1.035

1.022

1.045

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.1

154.14

5.55

1.041

1.026

1.053

1.041

1.028

1.051

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.1

183.04

6.73

1.041

1.026

1.053

1.040

1.028

1.051

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.1

245.17

 

10.82

1.040

1.025

1.053

1.040

1.028

1.050


Table 3.11: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted.

Scenario

Sabb. Rate

Add. adult deaths

Add. immat. deaths

Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)

Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)

Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)

Med. cnterfact GR (2077)

Forth and Tay Consented developer approach

0.1

583.34

17.75

0.901

0.864

0.997

0.997

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping approach a

0.1

610.70

18.93

0.897

0.858

0.997

0.997

Forth and Tay Consented Scoping Approach b

0.1

822.44

28.12

0.863

0.813

0.996

0.996

North Sea Consented developer approach

0.1

800.34

167.85

0.853

0.798

0.996

0.996

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a

0.1

827.70

174.03

0.848

0.792

0.995

0.995

North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b

0.1

1112.84

239.72

0.800

0.730

0.994

0.994

(1) Project Alone: developer approach

0.1

154.14

5.55

0.973

0.962

0.999

0.999

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a

0.1

183.04

6.73

0.968

0.955

0.999

0.999

(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b

0.1

245.17

10.82

0.957

0.940

0.999

0.999