3.13 Guillemot - Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA

Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.45: Projections of population sizes over a 50-year time-frame. Each plot represents a different impact scenario in terms of additional adult mortalities (starting at 0 i.e. unimpacted). Blue envelopes bound the central 95% of simulations, the dark central line the median.

Figure 3.46:
Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.46: Ratio of impacted and unimpacted growth rates under a range of impact scenarios (additional adult mortalities – x-axis) i.e. 0.9 means a 10% decrease in the growth rate under the impact scenario. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.47:
The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

Figure 3.47: The ratio of the median impacted and median unimpacted population sizes from the simulations over a range of impact scenarios (additional adult deaths - x-axis) i.e. 0.5 means the median impacted population size is one-half the median unimpacted population size. Figures are based on paired simulations for the impacted and unimpacted populations i.e. based on the same sampled population parameters. The bold lines represent the 50th percentile (median), dashed lines give the central 95% of simulated values (2.5% and 97.5% reference points).

The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Figure 3.48: The median of the impacted population size as a centile of the unimpacted population size, under a range of impact scenarios (incremental additional adult deaths – x-axis). For example, 30 means the median (50th percentile) of the impacted projections sits at the 30th percentile of the unimpacted projections. Individual lines represent years post-construction (35 and 50 years).

Table 3.62: Growth rates of simulated populations under different impact scenarios for the 35 and 50 year post-construction projections. Reference points are 2.5%, 50% (median) and 97.5% of the distribution of simulated growth rates.

Projection year	Additional adult mortalities	Median growth rates	2.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	97.5 percentile of simulated growth rates	Median counterfactual of population size	Median counterfactual of growth rates	Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted
2062	0	1.031	1.020	1.041
2062	10	1.030	1.020	1.040	0.987	1.000	47.5
2062	20	1.030	1.020	1.040	0.975	0.999	45.4
2062	30	1.030	1.019	1.040	0.963	0.999	42.9
2062	40	1.029	1.019	1.039	0.951	0.999	40.6
2062	50	1.029	1.018	1.039	0.939	0.998	38.6
2062	60	1.028	1.018	1.039	0.927	0.998	36.3
2062	70	1.028	1.018	1.038	0.915	0.998	34.2
2062	80	1.028	1.017	1.038	0.904	0.997	32.0
2062	90	1.027	1.017	1.038	0.893	0.997	30.0
2062	100	1.027	1.017	1.037	0.881	0.997	28.2
2062	110	1.027	1.016	1.037	0.870	0.996	26.1
2062	120	1.026	1.016	1.036	0.859	0.996	24.3
2062	130	1.026	1.016	1.036	0.849	0.995	22.9
2062	140	1.026	1.015	1.036	0.838	0.995	21.0
2062	150	1.025	1.015	1.035	0.827	0.995	19.3
2062	160	1.025	1.015	1.035	0.817	0.994	17.6
2062	170	1.024	1.014	1.035	0.807	0.994	16.1
2062	180	1.024	1.014	1.034	0.797	0.994	14.3
2062	190	1.024	1.013	1.034	0.786	0.993	12.9
2062	200	1.023	1.013	1.034	0.777	0.993	11.8
2077	0	1.031	1.022	1.039
2077	10	1.030	1.022	1.039	0.982	1.000	47.2
2077	20	1.030	1.021	1.039	0.965	0.999	44.9
2077	30	1.030	1.021	1.038	0.948	0.999	41.7
2077	40	1.029	1.020	1.038	0.931	0.999	38.7
2077	50	1.029	1.020	1.037	0.914	0.998	36.5
2077	60	1.028	1.020	1.037	0.898	0.998	33.5
2077	70	1.028	1.019	1.037	0.882	0.998	30.6
2077	80	1.028	1.019	1.036	0.867	0.997	28.3
2077	90	1.027	1.019	1.036	0.851	0.997	25.9
2077	100	1.027	1.018	1.036	0.836	0.996	23.7
2077	110	1.027	1.018	1.035	0.821	0.996	21.6
2077	120	1.026	1.018	1.035	0.807	0.996	19.4
2077	130	1.026	1.017	1.035	0.792	0.995	17.4
2077	140	1.026	1.017	1.034	0.778	0.995	15.7
2077	150	1.025	1.016	1.034	0.764	0.995	14.0
2077	160	1.025	1.016	1.033	0.751	0.994	12.5
2077	170	1.025	1.016	1.033	0.737	0.994	11.4
2077	180	1.024	1.015	1.033	0.724	0.994	10.0
2077	190	1.024	1.015	1.032	0.711	0.993	8.9
2077	200	1.023	1.015	1.032	0.698	0.993	7.6

Table 3.63: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2062) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2062)	Med. popn size (2062) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2062) 97.5%
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	124263.6	81478.5	185270.8
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	10.3644	8.33	122694.6	80440.6	182950.2
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	22.3400	17.61	120931.7	79273.5	180339.0
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	47.5514	37.57	117274.3	76851.3	174917.4
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	2.47	2.19	123647.7	81070.9	184358.5
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	5.19	4.70	123152.5	80742.8	183624.5
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	11.10	9.97	121664.8	79757.3	181415.3

Table 3.64: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. popn size = Median population size, Med. popn size (2077) 2.5/97.5% = are the central 95% of simulated population sizes.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. popn size (2077)	Med. popn size (2077) 2.5%	Med. popn size (2077) 97.5%
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	195444.8	121031.8	308641.0
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	10.3644	8.33	191955.6	118866.0	303158.0
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	22.3400	17.61	188048.7	116439.8	297022.3
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	47.5514	37.57	180005.3	111433.0	284404.6
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	2.47	2.19	194072.3	120179.9	306482.1
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	5.19	4.70	192970.6	119496.9	304748.5
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	11.10	9.97	189662.4	117445.3	299548.8

Table 3.65: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Ann. med. GR = Annual median growth rate, Ann. med. GR ,lower/upper CI are the 95% confidence bounds.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Ann. med. GR (2062)	Ann. med. GR (2062) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2062) upper CI	Ann. med. GR (2077)	Ann. med. GR (2077) lower CI	Ann. med. GR (2077) upper CI
Baseline	0.07	0.0000	0.00	1.031	1.020	1.041	1.031	1.022	1.039
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	10.3644	8.33	1.030	1.020	1.040	1.030	1.022	1.039
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	22.3400	17.61	1.030	1.019	1.040	1.030	1.021	1.038
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	47.5514	37.57	1.029	1.019	1.039	1.029	1.020	1.038
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	2.47	2.19	1.030	1.020	1.041	1.031	1.022	1.039
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	5.19	4.70	1.030	1.020	1.041	1.030	1.022	1.039
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	11.10	9.97	1.030	1.020	1.040	1.030	1.021	1.039

Table 3.66: Relevant PVA metrics from models with impact scenarios for specific additional mortalities. Tabulated adult deaths account for the indicated sabbatical rate. Med. cnterfact. popn size = Median counterfactual of population size, Med. cnterfact. GR = Median counterfactual of growth rates, Cent. unimp. match 50th cent. unimp. = Centile of unimpacted matching 50th centile of unimpacted.

Scenario	Sabb. Rate	Add. adult deaths	Add. immat. deaths	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2062)	Med. cnterfact. popn size (2077)	Med. cnterfact. GR (2062)	Med. cnterfact GR (2077)
North Sea Consented developer approach	0.07	10.3644	8.33	0.987	0.982	1.000	1.000
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach a	0.07	22.3400	17.61	0.973	0.962	0.999	0.999
North Sea Consented Scoping Approach b	0.07	47.5514	37.57	0.944	0.921	0.998	0.998
(1) Project Alone: developer approach	0.07	2.47	2.19	0.995	0.993	1.000	1.000
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach a	0.07	5.19	4.70	0.991	0.987	1.000	1.000
(2) Project Alone: Scoping approach b	0.07	11.10	9.97	0.979	0.970	0.999	0.999

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